Sunday, July 19th, 2026
Laramie, Wyoming
By Dan Denning
What’s going to be exhausted first: the barrels, the ballistic missiles, or the bombs?
In our regular communications with paying subscribers, we’ve noted some artificial and some physical deadlines that might determine how long this military operation in Iran may last.
The artificial deadlines are easy to skip. The War Powers Act authorizes the President to initiate military action and pursue it for 60 days without Congressional approval. He can then extend the operation for another 30 days before having to ask permission from lawmakers to continue.
All of that already happened once. The President notified Congress of operations against Iran on March 2nd. Then in late April/early May he said the ‘ceasefire’ effectively terminated hostilities. That appears to be a loophole that resets the statutory clock.
Accordingly, when the bombs began to fall again last week, it was not a continuation of the old war…but the beginning of a new one! The President has 60 days to conduct affairs, then another 30 to extend them, before Congress is required to approve the war that is not a war.
Or we could have another ‘ceasefire.’
Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Forever war. The real physical limit may have a lot to do with the chart below.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is about three weeks away from reaching its ‘operational limit’ for further drawdowns. The Trump Administration has been pumping out nearly 5.5 million barrels of oil from the SPR per week since the war began. It was a bit less last week, at 2.99 million barrels.
Under 300 million barrels—a level that would be reached in about three weeks at the average rate—there’s no telling how well the structure of the salt caverns in Louisiana that store the oil would hold up. By law, the statutory minimum for the SPR is 252 million barrels. Yet the Department of Energy says that in practice, the reserve could be drawn down to just 70 million barrels if necessary.
The clock is ticking on regular SPR releases. There are also the ‘known unknowns.’ How many ballistic missiles or ballistic missile launchers does Iran still have? How many smart bombs and bunker busters does the US have? Will either of them run out soon?
We’ll find out more this week. In the meantime, please enjoy the summary below of all the research we published last week at BPR.
Until tomorrow,
Dan
