The Sound and the Fury
The numbers do not at all mean what most people think they mean. But at least they were supposed to be misleading on a non-partisan basis...giving false signals to both Republicans and Democrats alike
Wednesday, August 6th, 2025
Bill Bonner, from Poitou, France
‘It’s not who you know. It’s what you know.
Until the Big Man takes over.’
--Bill Bonner
The latest news, from Associated Press, tells us more about how America’s ‘Caesarist’ government functions. AP:
Goods that comply with the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that Trump negotiated during his first term are excluded from the tariffs.
Canada’s central bank says 100% of energy exports and 95% of other exports are compliant with the trade pact, known as USMCA. The Royal Bank estimated that almost 90% of Canadian exports appear to have accessed the U.S. market duty free in April.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the commitment of the U.S. to the core of USMCA, reaffirmed again last week, means the U.S. average tariff rate on Canadian goods remains one of its lowest, and over 85% of Canada-U.S. trade continues to be tariff free.
Tariff free? What was all that talk of a 35% tariff tax?
Earlier this year, we guessed that the trade war with our neighbors was mostly for show; it would rehearse the spat Donald Trump had with them during his first term. Full of sound and fury, it ended up signifying nothing.
Then, when The Donald went back on the warpath, it looked like this trade war would do serious damage to the world economy, after all.
But wait...there was a pause...a delay...a renegotiation...and — it turns out — an exception.
The substance of US policies may not change as much as people think. But the style is very different.
The big evolution of the US government from ‘neoliberal,’ more-or-less ‘consensual’ democracy to a ‘Big Man’ or ‘Caesarian’ form has been widely noted. It is a shift of power from the legislature to the executive...from the rule of law to the rule of the Big Man, similar to the shift in Rome in 21 BC, when Augustus upstaged the Senate to rule the empire.
The Democrats are, of course, branding the Trump administration as ‘authoritarian.’ They’re not wrong about it. But they don’t mention that it was they who provided much of the substance – unlimited spending, unlimited executive power, and unlimited backing for Israel. As for the style, they wouldn’t mind it at all if the same heavy hand were at the end of Hillary Clinton’s arm.
Good or bad, whoever’s fault it is...the Big Man now has his big derriere in the big chair in the big white house on Pennsylvania Avenue.
Prior to Donald Trump, for example, it was presumed that the statisticians were honest number crunchers...and that POTUS wouldn’t presume to argue with them. But now, the same man who thinks he can reduce drug prices by ‘1,500%’ thinks he knows what the employment numbers should be.
Of course, the numbers do not at all mean what most people think they mean. But at least they were supposed to be misleading on a non-partisan basis...giving false signals to both Republicans and Democrats alike.
And the numbers this year have generally flattered the Trump team. For May and June, the BLS initially reported 291,000 new jobs. Last week’s revisions wiped out all but 33,000 of them.
Donald Trump didn’t object to the old numbers. They seemed to show that his economy was, as he put it, “BOOMING under TRUMP.”
The new numbers are the ones he didn’t like; they showed that his economy is not so great after all.
But unlike other presidents from ourmore ‘consensual democracy’ days, who would have accepted the new numbers for what they were — statistical noise — the Big Man wants the BLS to get in harmony with him and sing his praises. Now the distortions will no longer be random mumbo jumbo but a deliberate attempt to bamboozle the public.
I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY.
She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified.
The Big Man also claims to know at what interest rates the Fed should make credit available to member banks:
Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, a stubborn MORON, must substantially lower interest rates, NOW.
Presidents have often tried to get the Fed to loosen up — to help them win an election, for example. But never before has a POTUS publicly described the Fed head as a ‘moron.’
This is something different. It’s Big Man government of a particular sort.
But how far will the Big Man go?
More tomorrow…
Regards,
Bill Bonner
The sound and the fury.....signifying nothing.
If it wasn't Trump, it would be someone else, from either branch of the Uniparty, stroking the egos of the voters, calling to jingoistic patriotism, telling them that, somehow, the USA is exceptional, and of course then, so are they.
Trump is accelerating the economic triumph of BRICS, but it could have been Hilary, or Biden in his younger days, or Vance, or some other electable stooge.
The sound and fury of 51st state, Greenland, Panama, more recently tariff negotiations which are mainly unenforceable...are just sound and fury. What's the reality?
The USA is one of the two largest global economies, and has the reserve currency, so its dependent trading partners, like India, Canada, and the EU, can't easily or quickly disengage. Over time, they will. From their PoV, they must. The USA is not trustworthy.
Desperate US measures, like threatening bilateral trade without the USD, sanctioning involved banks; increasing tariffs on third countries trading with Russia, sacking BLS directors who can't or won't falsify data; will work for a while, but not for long. It's worked for decades since 1971, but time is running out.
The globe, and the USA, will recover from this long-delayed reckoning of what is true value.
The other countries of the globe will sell their products, and import, as they choose given the new conditions. Over time, they will need the USD less and less, and buy less Treasuries.
The USA will therefore print more money, (especially if the Uniparty takes over the Fed), and as the USD drops in value (whether it be the greenback, or a desperate digital facsimile), the American worker (and retiree) will be paid the same nominal amount, but be able to buy less.
In time, the US economy will recover, because the average US citizen will be paid about the same as the average PRC or Indian citizen, and US products will be globally competitive.
(Especially if the US raises its standards of STEM education, to match the Indians and PRC. )
This is a forecast. Here is another one. The USA won't go quietly into the night. It will use its magnificent Army, Navy and Air Force to have one tumultuous war, which it might even 'win', but which will destroy its Empire, just as the British Empire won, but lost, WW2.
Well saddle my grandmother and call her Secretary of Tariffs, sounds like Caesar done reincarnated in a spray-tanned meat suit and decided the Constitution was just an outdated appetizer menu for the Olive Garden of Empire. We ain’t running on democracy no more folks, we are driving a bloated Ford Bronco full of sycophants straight off the fiscal cliff, brakes cut, GPS rerouted to Rome, 21 B.C., destination, Glorious Collapse. Trade wars that feel like poorly-scripted reality TV reruns, economic numbers that vanish like ethics in a lobbyist’s diary, and bureaucrats who get fired faster than interns at Epstein’s island resort, this ain’t governance, this is vaudeville soaked in blood and branded “freedom.”
And now, every stat’s gotta pass a loyalty test. “Boomin’ economy?” Better say so, or the Data Fairy gets waterboarded in the Rose Garden. The Big Man doesn’t read tea leaves, he writes them in Sharpie, duct-tapes them to the BLS’s face, and calls it “transparency.” He doesn’t want advisors, he wants parrots with golden beaks and a fear of flying. Jerome Powell? Moron. Truth? Optional. Power? Permanent. This ain’t politics. This is Machiavelli mixed with WWE, Caesar in a red hat suplexing the Republic through the announcer’s table while the crowd chants “Four More Fears!”