The Fog of Peace
Thursday, April 8th, 2026
Bill Bonner, writing from Baltimore, Maryland
In this plan, America is fundamentally committed to guaranteeing non-aggression, the continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of enrichment, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, the termination of all resolutions of the Security Council and the Board of Governors, the payment of Iran’s damages, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, and the cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon.
—Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on the ceasefire
Who cried ‘uncle?’
Like the Virgin Birth, or ‘printing press money,’ the victory over Iran is largely incomprehensible to modest minds. But so is the history of warfare and foreign policy, generally.
Reaching for an insight...we note that most of what we know is probably false...and that even those elements that are true are like mere foot soldiers in a farcical war. They are real. And they are ready to die. For what? Nobody really knows.
The media spent yesterday trying to sort it out. Was there a ceasefire in effect...or not? Did it include the Israelis...or not? Was traffic moving through the Strait? Whose peace proposal had been accepted...the US version, or Iran’s? Is Lebanon part of it?
In any event, Gen. Caine warned that a “cease fire is just a pause.”
It turned out that it was such a short pause that if you went to the bathroom, you may have missed it.
At around 10am came a report from NBC that:
Israel launches huge attack in Lebanon after cease fire agreed
By 11am, the Strait was closed again. Jackson Hinckle:
BREAKING: Iran OFFICIALLY CLOSES the STRAIT OF HORMUZ until further notice due to Israel’s attack on Lebanon — Fars New Agency
The Wall Street Journal added detail at 1pm:
Iran told mediators it would limit the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to around a dozen a day and charge tolls under the cease-fire struck by President Trump, showing Tehran plans to keep control over the world’s most important energy-shipping lane.
Ships that pass will have to coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful paramilitary group that has been labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union, Arab mediators said.
And by 3pm the ceasefire ceased to be a ceasefire. Came a headline: ‘What Ceasefire?’ World Politics Review:
In reality, not much has changed on the ground in the past 24 hours. Iranian airstrikes are continuing to hit targets in Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia reported that a critical east-west pipeline that carries oil to the Red Sea had been struck.
Traffic has not resumed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel, meanwhile, launched what it said was its heaviest wave of airstrikes yet against Lebanon as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Lebanon was excluded from the deal, flatly contradicting Sharif’s statement. Indeed, the Americans seem to be the only ones who have stopped shooting.
By 4pm we discovered that somebody hadn’t read the fine print. Reuters:
US did not agree that ceasefire would cover Lebanon, Vance says
Whatever else might be said about it, the ceasefire was at least equal to the war it was meant to stop: neither was what it was advertised to be.
You’ll recall that the stock market didn’t take the end of the world very seriously. But now that the world wasn’t going to end so soon, it shot straight up at the opening yesterday. The price of oil collapsed by $22 on the opening...and held in the low $90s for the rest of the day.
And as of this morning, the fog of war had been replaced by the fog of peace. Only America’s war-fighters have stood down...and wondered why they ever stood up in the first place.
Regards,
Bill Bonner
This is the continued "rope a dope" tactic employed by Iran forever. The straits are INTERNATIONAL waters. A countries limits extend 12 miles from their shores, period. No NUKS and open the straits are fundamental period, the rest of the talk is smoke and mirrors. No one can be allowed to put a "choke chair" around the neck of the rest of the world.
Jim Marshall
For reasons that escape me and many others, our current president was persuaded to wage war with Iran on behalf of Israel
Baffling since Iran was never and, despite enduring heavy bombing, is not now a threat to the US.
The chaos and cost to the US, to the Gulf states and to all countries whose well being is dependent on oil imported from the region is solely attributable to Trump and his coterie of advisors who aim to please.
The comment from an unknown NYT subscriber reflects the views of many if not most Americans:
"Attacking Iran is the most humiliating, immoral, ill-conceived and disastrous action by an American president in history.
Trump’s apparent war crimes have not just irreparably damaged America and our standing in the world, he has spawned the next generation of terrorists motivated to kill Americans.
Too bad Congress isn’t alive to do something about this, because, contrary Trump’s claims, God is probably not on our side according to the Pope."