The Deep Currents of History
We need to expect the Primary Trend — towards lower real asset prices, higher interest rates, inflation... along with chaos and corruption — to continue.
Wednesday, May 5, 2024
Bill Bonner, writing today from Dublin, Ireland
A deep, mega-political kind of corruption twists policies away from the well-being of the public and the nation... in favor of elite special interests.
Today’s favored industries, pet projects, and key voter groups get money they didn’t earn... and the next generation gets a $35 trillion debt bomb.
Let’s begin with the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Russians appear to be winning. But that is merely a detail. The important thing is that the Ukrainians are losing... and taking the US down with them.
US involvement began as a result of neocon ideologues in Washington... and the firepower industry that funds them and profits from their warmongering. The war in the Ukraine followed the pattern of Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. That is, US involvement begins with lies and misconceptions... continues with payoffs, double dealing and overspending... and ends in disgrace. And in the Ukraine, the US goes further. It shows the world that its military strategists are incompetent... its sanctions are impotent... and its modern, high-tech weapons are no match for the Russians.
In other words, supporting the Ukrainians was more than just a waste of money. It revealed to us all that the empire of ‘the West’ is not nearly as strong as it pretends to be…and invites challengers.
Sanctions Fail
The combined resources (GDP) of the NATO allies are 30 times greater than those of Russia. So, there was never any real danger that Russian troops would go boating on the Seine. And stopping Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine looked like a cinch. And when the US first rolled out its sanctions, it was believed that they would cripple the Russian economy... that Putin would soon be gone... and the ‘The West’ would be triumphant.
But the sanctions didn’t work. Russia’s economy is now thought to be growing three times faster than the US’s. And the financial restrictions brought China, Iran, Russia, Turkey, India — most of the world’s population — closer together to invent their own trading systems. The latest news, from the Straits Times:
Malaysia rebuffs US on Iran oil sales, says it recognises only UN sanctions
Then, when sanctions fizzled, the US and NATO allies sent their latest weapons. These were ‘game changers,’ said the press; they would clearly show the superiority of ‘western’ technology. But what happened? AP:
Ukraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia, in part because Russian drone warfare has made it too difficult for them to operate without detection or coming under attack, two U.S. military officials told The Associated Press.
Captured US tanks were put on display in Moscow... their technology and construction minutely analyzed by Russian experts.
Other US weapons were ‘too sophisticated’ or simply ‘inappropriate’ for the terrain. Or, there weren’t enough of them. The ‘game’ went on, unchanged.
Now, the press reports that Russian forces have regained the initiative and are pushing westward. And the defensive lines, that US aid supposedly paid for, aren’t there. According to press reports, corrupt contractors never did the work... and disappeared with the money.
A reasonable, ‘America First’ foreign policy would have been not to meddle in Ukrainian politics in the first place. US money and weapons were better kept at home. The Pentagon might have benefited from the war as an observer, carefully studying Russian weapons and tactics, rather than getting whupped itself.
Sensible policy was overruled by corruption. Big money from the firepower lobby prevents an honest, reasonable response. (Money sent to the Ukraine, as Joe Biden let us know, ‘comes back to us’... or, at least the part that isn’t stolen... to the Northern Virginia arms industries).
But corruption comes with a fuse attached…and it’s lit. Overseas, it strengthens the empire’s designated ‘enemies’... and hastens the day of its own collapse. And at home…here’s the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:
In the first seven months of Fiscal Year 2024, spending on net interest has reached $514 billion, surpassing spending on both national defense ($498 billion) and Medicare ($465 billion). Overall spending has totaled $3.9 trillion thus far. Spending on interest is also more than all the money spent this year on veterans, education, and transportation combined.
The problem is not political... it’s mega-political.
Mega-politics tells us that people don’t always say what they want, know what they want, or get what they want. Instead, they think what they need to think... do what they want to do... and get what they deserve. And they end up where they ought to be... carried along by the deep currents of history.
Nobody wants to die, for example, but everybody does. Nobody wants Social Security to go broke. But if not corrected, it will. Both Trump and Biden have pledged not to touch America’s ‘insurance’ programs; so, they can’t be fixed.
And so, it comes to pass that even the greatest empire shuffles towards its own funeral pyre. This happens in plain sight, like an old man dying in a nursing home. It’s a natural, organic corruption, much like the rot that gets into old bones and old trees. They hollow out... they gnarl... and then they break.
The US butts up against $35 trillion in debt... going up at the rate of about $5 billion per day while the interest alone (based on the latest figures, above), tots to $2.4 million per day.
Who wants that? Who wants to die? Who wants to saddle his own children with a lifetime of debt?
But who can stop it?
Looking out for ourselves, and our Dear Readers, the answer is: probably no one. So, we need to expect the Primary Trend — towards lower real asset prices, higher interest rates, inflation... along with chaos and corruption — to continue.
Stay tuned.
Regards,
Bill Bonner
Research Note
Inflation is running at 3.4%, year-over-year, according to today’s announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding food and energy, it was 3.6%. What do you think? Take our unofficial poll below or leave a comment.
Inflation is going at least 10%. My wife tells me every time she goes to the market that fewer items on the shelves, packages are getting smaller and smaller, which higher prices.
NEVER believe government statistics…believe your eyes, not the lies!