One Nation, Under Thumb

The BRICS sound like the original United States, a confederation of independent, sovereign states, rather than the more modern version of the US, in which all the states are under Washington’s thumb.

Source: Getty Images

Tuesday, October 29^th, 2024 

Bill Bonner, writing today from Baltimore, Maryland 

Where’s Kazan? Who cares? 

We didn’t know and didn’t care either. But, for those curious, it is in Tatarstan, a republic in Russia, not an independent country. It is located about five hundred miles east of Moscow, between the Volga and Kama rivers. As for the people, they are Turkic speaking descendants of the Golden Horde... and they eat their meat raw. 

That’s probably all you need to know about it. But the meeting just held in its capital city, Kazan, may be worth more attention. 

The western mainstream press mostly ignored the BRICS meeting in Kazan last week. Delegates from thirty-nine different countries, representing most of the world’s population, held a historic get-together; the western media didn’t find it worth mentioning. 

All we knew about the BRICS summit was what we got from ‘alternative’ sources. Then, yesterday, a dear reader from Montreal sent over some links to the coverage in the French press. One interview in particular, with Pascal Mas, helped us to understand what the BRICS are up to. 

You’ll recall that it wasn’t that long ago that, apart from the US and its Western allies, the rest of the world was “developing” or the “Third World”... or what Donald Trump might call “sh*thole countries.” Whatever you called them, they didn’t matter very much.  

But now, all of a sudden, the sunlight seems to reach the “Global South.”  

’The BRICS are not really an alternative UN or NATO,’ explained Mr. Mas. “It is not a top-down group, and it is not dominated by a single country or single leader. It has no bureaucracy... not even a headquarters building or a Secretary General. 

‘The western press brushed it off as Mr. Putin’s show. But he doesn’t control the BRICS. The members are all equal.’” 

Hearing Mr. Mas describe it, the BRICS sound more like the original United States, a confederation of independent, sovereign states... rather than the more modern version of the US, in which all the states are under Washington’s thumb. 

‘And it’s not an organization that gives orders or resolves conflicts. Instead, the members get together to talk and work out their differences... publicly. Countries that wouldn’t talk to each other — Turkey and Iran, for example, are historical enemies — come together and speak openly. This is not like the G7 where the important issues get settled behind closed doors.’ 

One of the most important events of the BRICS phenomenon probably occurred before the meeting began. China and India have disputed their common border for more than fifty years. No agreed-upon borderline exists, and every once in a while, border guards take shots at one another.  

But a week ago, in anticipation of the BRICS summit, the two most populous countries in the world cut a deal. CNN: 

India and China have reached an agreement on military disengagement along their disputed border, New Delhi said, a step toward reducing frictions between the nuclear-armed neighbors that comes ahead of an expected meeting between the countries’ leaders on the sidelines of a summit in Russia.Beijing later confirmed on Tuesday that the two sides had “reached a solution” following “close communication on relevant issues of the China-India border through diplomatic and military channels.” 

All empires must die. Is this how the US will go — squeezed and exhausted... between India’s apparently unlimited manpower... and China’s unmatchable manufacturing? 

Probably not worth worrying about. Not yet. But one part of the spectrum that US elites most want to dominate is the money part. Much of America’s prosperity comes from its ability to lay off its monetary inflation onto foreigners. The US ‘prints’ but much of the printed-up new money ends up overseas, in banks or in mattresses.  

Since 1999, total accumulated trade deficits tote to around $13 trillion – equal to about a third of the national debt. Had the foreigners not wished to hold dollars, inflation would have hit earlier and harder... forcing up interest rates and causing a financial crisis. And were the dollar to lose its ‘reserve’ status now... it would be a severe blow to the economy, the markets, and to US power. The Financial Times: 

What is at stake here is not just the erosion of the dollar’s dominant role but also a gradual change in the operation of the global system... an increasing number of little pipes are being built to go around this [dollar] core; and a growing number of countries are interested and increasingly involved. What has been happening to the gold price is not just unusual in terms of traditional economic and financial influences... As it develops deeper roots, this risks materially fragmenting the global system and eroding the international influence of the dollar and the US financial system. 

Over the last two years, foreign-based dollars – trillions of them – lost about 20% of their value.  Their owners must be looking for alternatives.      

Regards, 

Bill Bonner 

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Market Note, by Tom Dyson

Last week’s issue of the Economist had a bold cover. It’s a picture from the successful test of SpaceX’s Starship rocket two weeks ago, except they’ve replaced the rocket with a roll of dollar bills.

The Economist is using this image to promote a special report about the US economy inside the magazine. The headline of the special report is: “The Envy of the World”

And its subhead is: “The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust. Expect that to continue argue simon Rabinovitch and Henry Curr” 

I bet this magazine cover is going to become an iconic contrarian indicator. So I bought a copy of the magazine and I’m going to frame it, and then hang it on the wall.

Paying subscribers should look for the November Monthly Strategy Report tomorrow afternoon after the US market closes. Tomorrow’s report will include a new (and revised) reading from our real-time economic indicator (The Doom Index) as well as updated analysis on the Dow/Gold ratio and our most current Asset Allocation Strategy.