Lost Generations

Home is where the heart is. But history tells us that there are good times to be somewhere else. The French in 1914…the Russians in 1917…Germans in 1933.

An oil tanker if the Straight of Hormuz, Source: Getty Images

Monday, June 23^rd, 2025

Bill Bonner, from Youghal, Ireland

‘Bomb, bomb, bomb…bomb, bomb Iran.’

--John McCain

‘What to do with your money now’ will have to wait.

Steve Bannon alerted his War Room audience on Saturday: ‘the party is on.’ Reuters:

Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January as Washington's weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply worries.

Brent crude futures rose $1.88 or 2.44% at $78.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.87 or 2.53% at $75.71.

Yes, the US is at war! CBS:

The president described the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites as a "spectacular military success." He warned of "far greater" attacks if Iran does not "make peace."

"There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days," Mr. Trump said. "Remember, there are many targets left."

Fox News’ Kayleigh McEnany said that now “every dictator in the world is on notice.” Trump had sent them a “powerful message.”

But it may not have been the message most Americans would want them to hear. The bombers say they are only trying to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. But Iran had already agreed not to make a nuke. And it had gone along with diplomatic negotiations…rules…inspections…non-proliferation treaties — all intended to keep it from doing so.

But it got bombed anyway. The lesson is clear: The only way to protect yourself is to get nukes fast…and be ready to use them. Or, partner up with a credible nuclear protector — perhaps Russia or China.

Since WWII, there have been plenty of wars…but few victory parades. Korea, Vietnam, Honduras, Nicaragua, Grenada, Kuwait, Kosovo, etc. etc. Iraq, and Afghanistan. But Mr. Trump must have felt left out. He was the only US president in the 21st century who had not started a costly, pointless war. And who knows, maybe this one will turn out better than all the others.

But ours is not to reason why. Ours is merely to get out of town while we still can. At least that’s what a lot of Americans are thinking. The Financial Times:

A growing number of Americans are quietly assembling a contingent plan for life abroad in case the US becomes too uncomfortable.

Home is where the heart is. But history tells us that there are good times to be somewhere else. The French in 1914…the Russians in 1917…Germans in 1933. The French suffered a “lost generation” in the Great War. More than one million young men were killed. Ten million Russians died in the Bolshevik Revolution and its aftermath; the other spent the next 70 years trapped in a sad, dreary place. And between WWII and the intentional murder of gypsies, Jews, homosexuals, and communists — the Germans lost eight million or so.

And now Americans are beginning to squirm. And wonder.

Twice as many Americans as Chinese have applied for Portugal’s Golden Visas; are they twice as eager to leave home? Applications for passports from Ireland increased 60% in January and February.

“The American professional classes” says Alastair Bonnett, quoted by the FT, are “joining the super-rich Chinese, Russians and others who have long sought an insurance policy against an unsympathetic government who might imprison them or seize their property.”

Your editor is, of course, way ahead on this trend — both personally and professionally. He began a magazine in 1979 — International Living. Back then, we had no fear of the US government. Habeas corpus still protected Americans from their own government; today, merely having a tattoo may be enough to get you disappeared into a Central American prison. And if the feds wanted a war, they had to at least pretend to have a casus belli, such as the phony Tonkin Gulf incident.

No more…politics and violence are on the rise; it’s the Primary Political Trend.

So far, we Americans probably have little to worry about. After all, the Iranians don’t have B-2 bombers! But people (including whole nations) go crazy from time to time. All you can do is to avoid getting caught up in the madness — either as a participant or a victim.

The FT quotes a couple who recently moved to Panama:

‘It’s something we never thought we’d have to think about, let alone do. There’s a growing sadness about what is going on out there…’

Regards,

Bill Bonner

---

Research Note, by Dan Denning

The early verdict from markets is that the war is over, or at least that the Straight of Hormuz is unlikely to be shut down by Iran and send oil prices to $300/barrel. I’m sure this will be an urgent topic of discussion at the Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing in two weeks. I will be watching remotely and wonder if energy or precious metals will be the hotter topic.

In the meantime, a subscriber recently asked me about the inflation-adjusted high of silver from 1980. There are two components to calculating that figure. First, the price itself, which you can get from New York COMEX or London LBMA or Chicago CBOT. The chart below from Ron Griess at www.thchartstore.com uses the silver price from the Handy & Harman data set (Handy & Harman are silver fabricators and have been publishing daily prices since 1892 for the American silver market).

The other factor is how you calculate inflation. Most inflation adjustments are based off of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). But due to changes in CPI methodology, there is a school of thought that CPI understates actual inflation in the economy. In any case, the inflation-adjusted all-time high for silver is closer to $200 than $100. Next stop in nominal terms, $40/ounce.