Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
Bill Bonner, from Normandy, France
If you think you understand what is going on, you don’t know what’s going on.
—Quantum theory
We arrived in France on Thursday evening. And we have much to report. A marvelous wedding...a wildfire headed for our farm...small towns where you won’t feel welcome...
But first, an update.
We’re still waiting...for clarification. Is gold ready to bounce back...or in a serious, long-term decline? Is the stock market going to correct, or not? Are interest rates and inflation really going up? And where is POTUS going...with more bombs abroad...and more doubts about free and fair elections at home?
These questions float like dark clouds on a hot, Texas afternoon. A bolt of lightning, a downpour, or even a twister could come from any of them, any time.
Until we find out differently, we’ll stay in the shelter of our Maximum Safety Mode. And we’ll presume that the Primary Trend remains the same — lower real (in gold) stock prices. Higher yields and lower bond prices. Stubborn and rising inflation.
We’ll also assume that the Macro Hypothesis...that the US empire is overstretched and in decline...is correct, until we find out otherwise. But we’re not really foolish enough to think we know what is going on. We make our guesses. We take our chances. History tells her story when and how she pleases.
The ferry from Dublin to Cherbourg was smooth and pleasant. Unlike the rough winter crossings, there were almost no waves. No swells. No roll. No pitch. No nausea.
In the summertime, though, there is plenty of commotion. When we took the ferry in February we were almost alone. Over the hum of the big diesel engines the only sound we heard was the soft tinkling of tableware as the truckers ate their solitary dinners.
But on a Friday in summer, there were shrieks of joy from stem to stern. Down on the car decks, the vehicles told the story. There were few tractor trailers. But practically every auto had a bicycle rack or a roof locker. There were also many vacation trailers and (smallish, by US standards) motor homes. Irish families were headed to the continent for their summer holidays.
In Ireland itself, temperatures have still not gone much above 75 degrees. But France, Italy and Spain have already suffered three heat waves — and it still is not even the end of July. The Irish must be looking forward to warmer temperatures and sunny beaches.
We went to a marvelous wedding on Saturday. About 300 guests turned out, all of them spiffed up with suits and ties for the men, elegant dresses — and some remarkable hats — for the ladies.
The ceremony took place in one of Normandy’s great churches, the Collegiale of Ecoui. Built in the reign of Philip the Fair in the 14th century, the building is austere and dreary on the outside. But the inside was elegant and well fitted out with all the usual medieval religious décor.
Norman towns are not very attractive. They were built in the 1800s and early 1900s with hard, dark bricks. They often look like abandoned insane asylums, the kind that provide motivation for murders committed many years later.
But out in the countryside, the houses are more likely built with stone, which ages better, giving them a golden glow in the evening light.
Most interesting at the wedding, however, were the people. They were good-looking, accomplished, Catholic and conservative. It is an important subculture in France -- smart, wealthy, traditional parents with large families. One couple we met had nine children. Others had five or six.
Doctors, military officers, bureaucrats, and business people -- they typically live in the 16th arrondissement of Paris with their summer houses on the coast of Normandy. They are the ‘bourgeois’ who are ridiculed by French comedians and attacked by France’s leftist politicians. On the defensive for decades, they may now be gaining ground.
Normandy was relatively rich in the Middle Ages. It adorned its cities with such grand cathedrals that even today they would be hard to reproduce. The cathedrals at Rouen, Evreux, Bayeux — all are worth a visit. On Sunday, we drove to the grand cathedral of Evreux. The cathedral there was begun in the 12th century...destroyed several times, and rebuilt each time. Now it sits in the center of town, largely neglected...with tufts of grass growing up around the foundation and a wire barrier set up to prevent visitors from getting hit by a falling gargoyle.
Downtown on Sunday, Evreux seems mostly empty. The few people you see on the streets look like recent immigrants from Africa or the Middle East.
Driving slowly down the street, a group of three of these young men gestured towards us. One used his hand to form a pistol and pretended to shoot us as we drove by.
‘Yeah,’ he yelled, amid riotous laughter, ‘we’re going to terrorize these bourgeois.’
The bourgeoisie may have already abandoned downtown Evreux.
More to come...
Regards,
Bill Bonner
Our cultural diversity is "their" strength...
Interesting but not informative