In order to avoid a debt debacle, the new tech would have to increase productivity...not just add complexity and novelty. Will AI do that? So far, there is no sign of it.
Bill, I spent my entire work life in the engineering world, mostly electronics. It was a great life. Many great developments, some even help mankind. What we see today from my view point is the greatest Ponzi Scheme ever created. YES, AI has some benefits and more to come , BUT, this is like the tower of Babel in the bible for me. Yes those riding the wave up today may make out well short term but the piper always has to be paid.
I'll stick with items of proven value over time thank you very much!
Yes, you will stick to the tried and true because you are old, and now step around rabbit holes, because like the rest of us old folks, we have broken enough legs in previous rabbit hole stepping.
Hey Tom, that's a good observation. If I really believed AI was the greatest thing since sliced bread, I would jump in. Sadly, this old (79) broken down warhorse can't afford any more broken legs.
Well, I am a Rabbit and dedicated to not becoming Rabbit Stew. Not a single penny in AI stocks, but you know, whether it is AI, the MIC, big data centres or other current themes, they all need the shiny white metal;-)
What, exactly, are we "progressing" towards? A life like that depicted in the movie Wall-E, where the humans are nothing but flabby blobs of flesh whose only entertainment is sitting in front of a black mirror in a an overstuffed lazy boy? There is no point to life if you spend it docile and dumb inside a digital prison, neuro-linked to some technocratic thought generator. All of it violates natural law and robs one of dignity, virtue, and free will. No thanks.
Angry Ice, thanks for the abbreviation "Ai", because, Luddite that I am, every time I see it written "AI", I see the name "AL" and ask myself "AL who?" Besides, since you are in the vanguard on this Ai thing, I only have to rely on you, and I know what I need to know. Many thanks. Best always. PM P.S. Remember this: "Uncle Al, the kiddies' pal..."?
Tongue in cheek Bill said maybe, just maybe, AI will assist the politicos to balance the budget. If anything, AI will provide another and more sophisticated methodology to increase the fraud perpetrated on the folks.
I couldn't agree more with your perspective on this space stuff. I realize that Elon needs something higher and more spectacular in order that he makes more money but I personally don't want to live on Mars. I kinda like my fireplaces here on earth, wood and all the mess. Plus it takes a lot of energy to get to Mars or even the moon, seems like those rockets require quite a bit of energy. I would guess that the moon is pretty similar to the earth in terms of gold or rare earths to be found there and probably finding them requires a lot of roaming around and searching which requires more energy, especially if brought up from the earth. I'm always interested in learning about energy / space / physics or life but far as I can tell there is no life on the moon or Mars. I could certainly be wrong on that. But from an energy perspective it seems like a hell of a lot of expenditure to go exploring out of this world, even if you can save the rocket booster shells. By the way what percentage of the cost of a rocket adventure is the booster shell and engines?
Loved your rant, especially the first sentence. I detest these iphones. I would love to go back to the far more efficient Answering Machine. I still have one in two of my houses, love em. The only reason I don't get rid of my iphone is my kids wouldn't trust my advice anymore, which I try not to give very often, and without that advice they might make a stupid mistake. Plus they would feel sorry for me, god forbid. Furthermore I detest the damn iphones! They take up way too much time just keeping them running and dealing with Google supposedly trying to retain my privacy, when I know they really are working full time trying to take my privacy without me knowing it. I hate the damn company with a passion. Do they really think I'm that damn stupid I don't realize they are stealing my privacy by every programming methodology possible. After just a few years of practice with the iphone, and I try to spend as little time as possible on it, it takes drastically more time commitment than any other device I've ever owned. One of life's great efficiency stealers. I would never buy one and the only reason I have one other than stated above is that my wife constantly buys one for me. She even wants me to take it hunting. Like the reason I go hunting is to stay in communication with everyone. Furthermore I've paid $5000 for a couple pounds lighter gun and I'll be damned if I'm going to carry around this pound of iphone while trying to climb mountains.
Furthermore your comment about privacy is so damn right on! Before these damn iphones and computers one didn't have to worry about some thief who has nothing better to do than stealing your identity, passwords and eventually after a few years of work maybe getting into your bank account. In the mean time everyone has to carry around a secret book of passwords. Or one can leave them on your iphone to create another possible method of theft. It used to be that people wanted things like washing machines and diswashers or items that actually increased one's freetime. Now we have these machines that steal your freetime and complicate your life. If Zuckerberg and Elon have their way you'll need a device that will communicate from space when you are trying desperately to get away from it all.
Mac - simply ask yourself how your life would be less fruitful if you didn't have a smart phone, and then throw it away. I've never owned one and never will. Not having one has not impeded in the slightest my ability to pursue my career as a professional writer. Since I'm old, I do carry a flip phone in case I fall and need to call 9-11, but I don't give the number out to anyone. Drop out. It's just that simple and you'll be glad you did.
All religious stuff aside, it is useful to consider whether the internet has been an unalloyed good. I used to think it is, but have had second thoughts as I do a cost/benefit analysis. Yes, it makes my work easier, and I use it for that. Remember when it was ballyhooed as a boon to all mankind? The potential was certainly there. But just like that, it turned into a product designed to addict people to it. In that sense, it's become a gigantic scam, making a few people wealthier than all the kings of antiquity combined, at our expense. There is no turning back, of course. But has it been worth it? is a legitimate question to ask.
Patrick raises the right question before Bill does. Did the internet actually produce anything worth the cost?
I don't know the answer. But I can offer one data point for the room to judge.
I'm an independent writer in Canada. No Bloomberg terminal. No research team. No aviation finance background whatsoever.
In the last 24 hours, working with an AI cohort, I learned what a crack spread is, why Southwest terminated its entire fuel hedge book nine months before the bombs dropped on Iran, how aircraft lease payments get bundled into Special Purpose Vehicles and sold in tranches to pension funds, and what happens to your retirement account when the plane that's supposed to generate those lease payments has no fuel to fly.
Dan mentions SPVs in today's piece — used to give retail investors access to space companies they don't understand. The aviation ABS market built the same structure, rated the top tranches AAA, and sold them as safe money. $10 billion worth in 2025 alone. The year before the crisis.
Is that AI increasing productivity? Or is it just making it easier for one more person to generate plausible-sounding analysis that nobody needed?
Patrick might be right that we were better off before. I genuinely don't know. What I know is that two pieces came out of that 24 hours — Naked in the Sky and The Sky's the Limit — and four AI systems fact-checked them against SEC filings before I published.
Bill can decide if that's the wheel or the hula hoop. Link in profile.
Nothing screams "I don't care what other people think" like attacking them personally.
It’s also remarkable how often men who claim not to care what others think become deeply preoccupied with the penis size of anonymous strangers who criticise them.
Bill, I spent my entire work life in the engineering world, mostly electronics. It was a great life. Many great developments, some even help mankind. What we see today from my view point is the greatest Ponzi Scheme ever created. YES, AI has some benefits and more to come , BUT, this is like the tower of Babel in the bible for me. Yes those riding the wave up today may make out well short term but the piper always has to be paid.
I'll stick with items of proven value over time thank you very much!
Jim Marshall
Yes, you will stick to the tried and true because you are old, and now step around rabbit holes, because like the rest of us old folks, we have broken enough legs in previous rabbit hole stepping.
Hey Tom, that's a good observation. If I really believed AI was the greatest thing since sliced bread, I would jump in. Sadly, this old (79) broken down warhorse can't afford any more broken legs.
Right there with you bro, but a bit older:)
Well, I am a Rabbit and dedicated to not becoming Rabbit Stew. Not a single penny in AI stocks, but you know, whether it is AI, the MIC, big data centres or other current themes, they all need the shiny white metal;-)
What, exactly, are we "progressing" towards? A life like that depicted in the movie Wall-E, where the humans are nothing but flabby blobs of flesh whose only entertainment is sitting in front of a black mirror in a an overstuffed lazy boy? There is no point to life if you spend it docile and dumb inside a digital prison, neuro-linked to some technocratic thought generator. All of it violates natural law and robs one of dignity, virtue, and free will. No thanks.
I see there is little faith in Ai amongst BPR readers.
Not sure why, so far Ai has proven it is a major disruptor.
I am certain Ai will disrupt, change, impede, bolster, boggle and obfuscate almost everything.
Bet on it!
So far, so good...
Angry Ice, thanks for the abbreviation "Ai", because, Luddite that I am, every time I see it written "AI", I see the name "AL" and ask myself "AL who?" Besides, since you are in the vanguard on this Ai thing, I only have to rely on you, and I know what I need to know. Many thanks. Best always. PM P.S. Remember this: "Uncle Al, the kiddies' pal..."?
I remember Sues better from "Laugh-In"...
Tongue in cheek Bill said maybe, just maybe, AI will assist the politicos to balance the budget. If anything, AI will provide another and more sophisticated methodology to increase the fraud perpetrated on the folks.
Its many years since heard of shillings ? What does a shilling buy nowadays -not even a Mars bar !
Bill and Dan,
I couldn't agree more with your perspective on this space stuff. I realize that Elon needs something higher and more spectacular in order that he makes more money but I personally don't want to live on Mars. I kinda like my fireplaces here on earth, wood and all the mess. Plus it takes a lot of energy to get to Mars or even the moon, seems like those rockets require quite a bit of energy. I would guess that the moon is pretty similar to the earth in terms of gold or rare earths to be found there and probably finding them requires a lot of roaming around and searching which requires more energy, especially if brought up from the earth. I'm always interested in learning about energy / space / physics or life but far as I can tell there is no life on the moon or Mars. I could certainly be wrong on that. But from an energy perspective it seems like a hell of a lot of expenditure to go exploring out of this world, even if you can save the rocket booster shells. By the way what percentage of the cost of a rocket adventure is the booster shell and engines?
AI can make up, lie, create b.s. faster than a politician. So the people will love it.
Where we goin
Gold: technical risk flags waving following the peak
Meanwhile, there are further technical risk flags waving (peak in ETF holdings, spike in volatility,
lower high in price, peak in international gold prices). Arguably at this point the best case would be
a period of consolidation as in 2011-13 (then down) or 2020-24 (which ended with a breakout).
Topdown Charts – Weekly Macro Themes report: for clients only 4
1. Gold: overvalued and overhyped
The downside risks to gold here should not be understated. It has already peaked after a parabolic
run-up, and this is coming from a starting point of extreme overvaluation and consensus/crowded
bullishness. And a lot of the previous tailwinds are looking stale/done by now
Gold
Downside Risk
Assessment: gold faces significant
downside risk given major technical
deterioration from a starting point of
extreme valuations, consensus bullishness
(+fading tailwinds).
Risks: the upside case would be that gold
breaks out of the consolidation, or at least
holds support (e.g. a prolonged range-trade).
Catalysts: downside catalysts would be a
breakdown through support, capitulation in
still crowded-consensus sentiment/positioning,
better performance in bonds or bitcoin could
see rotational outflows from precious metals.
Valuations Macro/Fundamentals Monetary/Policy Sentiment/Positioning Technicals
Extreme Expensive Headwinds (mixed) Bearish Bearish
Topdown Charts – Weekly Macro Themes report: for clients only 2
1. Gold: momentum shift (outflows and bad breadth)
There has been a major shift in market behaviour for gold; ETF flows have gone from significant
inflows to now outflows and the composite cross-currency breadth indicator for gold has dropped
into negative territory + with bearish divergence. Again, it looks like the peak is in for now.
Topdown Charts – Weekly Macro Themes report: for clients only
https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-funky-math-behind-how-the-us-economy-could-double-in-size-overnight-155249/
Patrick,
Loved your rant, especially the first sentence. I detest these iphones. I would love to go back to the far more efficient Answering Machine. I still have one in two of my houses, love em. The only reason I don't get rid of my iphone is my kids wouldn't trust my advice anymore, which I try not to give very often, and without that advice they might make a stupid mistake. Plus they would feel sorry for me, god forbid. Furthermore I detest the damn iphones! They take up way too much time just keeping them running and dealing with Google supposedly trying to retain my privacy, when I know they really are working full time trying to take my privacy without me knowing it. I hate the damn company with a passion. Do they really think I'm that damn stupid I don't realize they are stealing my privacy by every programming methodology possible. After just a few years of practice with the iphone, and I try to spend as little time as possible on it, it takes drastically more time commitment than any other device I've ever owned. One of life's great efficiency stealers. I would never buy one and the only reason I have one other than stated above is that my wife constantly buys one for me. She even wants me to take it hunting. Like the reason I go hunting is to stay in communication with everyone. Furthermore I've paid $5000 for a couple pounds lighter gun and I'll be damned if I'm going to carry around this pound of iphone while trying to climb mountains.
Furthermore your comment about privacy is so damn right on! Before these damn iphones and computers one didn't have to worry about some thief who has nothing better to do than stealing your identity, passwords and eventually after a few years of work maybe getting into your bank account. In the mean time everyone has to carry around a secret book of passwords. Or one can leave them on your iphone to create another possible method of theft. It used to be that people wanted things like washing machines and diswashers or items that actually increased one's freetime. Now we have these machines that steal your freetime and complicate your life. If Zuckerberg and Elon have their way you'll need a device that will communicate from space when you are trying desperately to get away from it all.
Mac - simply ask yourself how your life would be less fruitful if you didn't have a smart phone, and then throw it away. I've never owned one and never will. Not having one has not impeded in the slightest my ability to pursue my career as a professional writer. Since I'm old, I do carry a flip phone in case I fall and need to call 9-11, but I don't give the number out to anyone. Drop out. It's just that simple and you'll be glad you did.
All religious stuff aside, it is useful to consider whether the internet has been an unalloyed good. I used to think it is, but have had second thoughts as I do a cost/benefit analysis. Yes, it makes my work easier, and I use it for that. Remember when it was ballyhooed as a boon to all mankind? The potential was certainly there. But just like that, it turned into a product designed to addict people to it. In that sense, it's become a gigantic scam, making a few people wealthier than all the kings of antiquity combined, at our expense. There is no turning back, of course. But has it been worth it? is a legitimate question to ask.
Anybody who knows me knows I don't have a smart phone. Mine is a smart-ass phone. Best always. PM
Patrick raises the right question before Bill does. Did the internet actually produce anything worth the cost?
I don't know the answer. But I can offer one data point for the room to judge.
I'm an independent writer in Canada. No Bloomberg terminal. No research team. No aviation finance background whatsoever.
In the last 24 hours, working with an AI cohort, I learned what a crack spread is, why Southwest terminated its entire fuel hedge book nine months before the bombs dropped on Iran, how aircraft lease payments get bundled into Special Purpose Vehicles and sold in tranches to pension funds, and what happens to your retirement account when the plane that's supposed to generate those lease payments has no fuel to fly.
Dan mentions SPVs in today's piece — used to give retail investors access to space companies they don't understand. The aviation ABS market built the same structure, rated the top tranches AAA, and sold them as safe money. $10 billion worth in 2025 alone. The year before the crisis.
Is that AI increasing productivity? Or is it just making it easier for one more person to generate plausible-sounding analysis that nobody needed?
Patrick might be right that we were better off before. I genuinely don't know. What I know is that two pieces came out of that 24 hours — Naked in the Sky and The Sky's the Limit — and four AI systems fact-checked them against SEC filings before I published.
Bill can decide if that's the wheel or the hula hoop. Link in profile.
Patrick raises the right question before Bill does. Did the internet actually produce anything worth the cost?
Hasn’t Bill been asking that question for decades?
Penis envy, well that is bridge too far but insightful.
Nothing screams "I don't care what other people think" like attacking them personally.
It’s also remarkable how often men who claim not to care what others think become deeply preoccupied with the penis size of anonymous strangers who criticise them.
😂😂 This guy is full on delusional