On to Moscow!

That is the magic of History...leaders are delusional when they need to be, and then, crowds fall into line behind the goofiest, most destructive programs. ‘On to Moscow,’ yell the soldiers...

Depiction of Oliver Cromwell at the Battle of Dunbar on September 3rd 1650 in the Third English Civil War, Source: Getty Images

Monday, January 5th, 2026

Bill Bonner, from Baltimore, Maryland

The new year began with a bang! CBS:

Venezuelan officials condemn Maduro’s capture, calling it a “kidnapping.“

But does Mr. Trump know what he is doing?

What was the charge against Maduro? ‘Narco-terrorism?’ Like Weapons of Mass Destruction, there is scant evidence of it, whatever it means. Venezuela was apparently only transhipping cocaine, not fentanyl. Cocaine is not so deadly; it is only said to be involved in 30,000 deaths per year. Alcohol is supposed to contribute to 178,000 deaths per year. And obesity is blamed for 300,000 deaths.

But many people all over the world seemed to rejoice in the kidnapping of Maduro — and his wife — especially people in Iran, Russia, China and North Korea. ‘Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake,’ they recall Napoleon saying.

Bringing a great empire down requires a huge amount of bad judgment. Trying to ‘run’ Venezuela, for example, might commit the country to another unnecessary, expensive, and distracting war. America’s rivals overseas — as well as its own ‘defense’ contractors — would be happy to see it.

That is the magic of History...leaders are delusional when they need to be, and then, crowds fall into line behind the goofiest, most destructive programs. ‘On to Moscow,’ yell the soldiers...before freezing to death on the unforgiving steppes.

A real declining empire requires quagmires...money pits...and tar babies. That’s where Venezuela comes in. On Friday, we looked at how the Big, Beautiful Budget of 2025 set the financial course. More and more deficits. More and more debt. More borrowing. Higher interest rates. If you were trying to kill the US economy, that is the program you’d aim for.

And at the first sign of a setback — such as a stock market crash or a recession — you would try to pump up the economy with even bigger deficits, more stimmies, lower interest rates and QE up the gazoo.

Then, it’s just a matter of time before you go bankrupt.

But today, we look at the other key component of the empire-killing program: war.

In what must be the most celebrated example of imperial overstretch in history, in 58 BC Julius Caesar attacked the tribes of Gaul. He was deeply in debt. How to get some big money? Steal it. Caesar set out to subdue Gaul (now France, Belgium and parts of Switzerland) expecting to loot the countryside and force the conquered tribes to pay tribute.

Alas, he was successful, extending the borders of the Roman Empire so much as to make it ungovernable and undefendable. The ‘ungovernable’ part became painfully obvious just ten years later, with Caesar’s Civil War...which didn’t end until Octavian (aka Augustus) defeated Antony and Cleopatra at the battle of Actium in 31 BC. Thereafter, in ancient Rome as in modern America, hardly a day went by without an uprising, an insurgency, a terror attack or outright war somewhere in the empire.

The downfall of the American empire similarly began with a foolish military adventure.

Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. And its jefe, Saddam Hussein, was one of the most effective anti-terrorists in the region. But it was time for History to take over.. The empire needed to open its purse and its veins, spilling its blood and treasure in places where it had neither a plausible war aim nor a plausible strategy for achieving it.

And now, the attacks on nowhere...for no reason...where nothing can be gained...multiply. BBC:

The US has launched strikes against militants linked to the Islamic State group (IS) in north-western Nigeria, where militants have sought to establish a foothold.

US President Donald Trump said the Christmas Day strikes were “powerful and deadly” and labelled the group “terrorist scum”, saying it had been “targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians”.

Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar told the BBC it was a “joint operation” and had “nothing to do with a particular religion”.

But count on the crowd to rally round.

And once the Big Man gets an appetite for foreign glory, it’s hard to satiate him. Already, Trump has threatened Greenland and Panama, saying he ‘wouldn’t rule out’ military action if the situation required it. And now he says of Colombian president, Gustavo Petro, that ‘he better watch his ass.’ Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, might want to keep her eyes open, too. Trump says ‘something will have to be done’ about Mexico.

On to Moscow!

Stay tuned...

Regards,

Bill Bonner