Western governments used to be able to fill budget gaps by borrowing money. Now, the debt is gargantuan...interest payments are surpassing national ‘defense’ costs...and interest rates are going up.
For many years Bill and his friends have been warning about the coming DOOM! The country, and the western world, is sort of like the frog in the boiling pot, as the temperature rises, the world won't really wake up until it is TO late. We, BPR readers, are likely in better shape to weather the storm than most others in our demographic area. We can only sit back and watch the train wreck.
That safety depends on where you're sitting. Me, high in the mountains of West Virginia. We are truly going into desperate times. Politicians truly suck.
Bill I have been a follower of your writings for decades, throughly enjoying your points on financial aspects of the economy. I could only wish you stayed in your lane, i would still be continuing. I know you don’t really care about one guy leaving - it’s like a -pimple on the ass of an elephant….i will miss prose like that of your last two posts. This is my last month with BPR, wishing you luck with your consistent attacks outside of the financial world. Why it’s important to you, IDK, but clearly Trump is a thorn in your side., truth is I don’t like him that much either however, he is the DULY elected President and deserves a modicum of respect. He does love this country and is trying to right the sinking ship. Beleive it or not. Au re Voir (-5 ,spelling)
Good au revoir except for the last couple of sentences.
They prompt me to wonder anew why so many people find laudatory a man who is a documented serial liar, tax creat, convicted felon, draft dodger, required to pay 82 million dollars for sexually attacking a woman, now abusing the Constitution and killing civilians galore in a country not a threat to us.
If you look into it with an open mind you will see they are all false charges, as for a threat you really don't understand. Having been in country since the beginning (1979), these fanatics expect to create chaos in order to user in the arrival of the 12th iman. A nuke would do it. Why would you need to enrich all the way to 60%, a short hop to 90% (weapons grade)? Civilian use would be I the 3-5% range. SO if you think they meant us no harm, think again. Peaceful means were tried for 47 year, this was long over due.
Your reply reminds me of the canard about opinions.
My parting remark can only be: because I defer to fact-finding by third parties fulfilling legal obligations that yielded an array of documented uncomplimentary facts about DJT, we perforce differ
Jimm, who among us says President Trump is laudatory? We who defend the President do so mostly because we believe he was/is infinitely superior to "Low-energy" Jeb and the cohort of nobodies against whom he gained the nomination and those who were his opponents in the elections: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama's autopen-idiot Vice President, and Kamala Harris. I won't go into a refutation of your other criticisms of the man, lest I bore the assemblage here even more than I already do. Best always. PM
Supporting DJT because he's the least deplorable choice suggests you have no ethical limits much less standards of conduct.
For example, surely you would not countenance him sexually assaulting one of your family members or repeatedly lying to your face or using his public office to enrich his family?
Jimm, I'm sure you noticed, I have a pragmatic side that compels me to make do with what's available. Please understand that on an ideal level, I appreciate your stance and views, and as I have said before, I'm sure we could be friends and supporters of one another, despite our practical disagreements. There is nothing personal in my comments with regard to my interactions here, but a casual dismissal of my "ethical limits" and "standards of conduct" is, for me, going a little bit over the line, and I'm sorry about that. Best always. PM
I am not casually dismissing anything. I simply posed three questions none of which you answered.
More: My disdain for DJT does not mean I endorse, admire or approve Democratic nominees.
I don't; in fact, I blame them for requiring voters to chose the least bad of two awful choices at a time when we need a wise and articulate person to navigate our ship of state out of the very troubled waters within which we have been taken by each of our 21st century profligate presidents
Hey Jim, I have to ask you. When have we seen a wise and articulate president? I would say Kennedy. He wanted to not give Israel the nuke, get rid of the CIA, and end the Vietnam War. Great president.
He has my respect because he stopped funding to USAID, which was the Democrats funding their corruption, he stopped funding to Universities that let racism decide who gets in (not that I'd want to get in those schools), he came to truth on vaccines damage and replaced FDA leaders and NIH leaders, he has aligned with Kennedy who is trying to understand autism and correct America food to be real food, he addressed Roundup but chose to let it stay, he stopped funding to universities that allowed men in women's sports, he has fired a lot of government workers (always a good thing in the whole bloated affair). He through Venezuela has taken away China's low cost oil and similarly with Hormuz, he has stood up to China on fentanyl, obviously an enemy that kills 100,000 Americans each year, he stopped some of the flow of fentanyl from Mexico and has their gov helping with drug lords. Canada has a globalist installed as PM that is fighting against the US proclaiming climate change and stopping the use of carbon based fuels for energy, absurd since 80% of US energy comes from Carbon Chain fuels, witness Germany while China uses coal and any oil they can get their hands on. I like it that our enemy is being confronted, they are trying to weaken us (TIKTOC), they are killing our people (fentanyl) they are trying to destroy our families by pushing wokism, our enemy steals IP and then competes by overwhelming the markets with cheap production (silicon metal for solar and computers, my company caught Chinese employees stealing IP). Trump is trying to bring back american manufacturing obviously he recognizes some of the problems and is the first president in decades that is actually doing something about it.
But he also makes mistakes, spending too much money is the biggest one, on the other hand with hundreds of congressmen and women they all think or probably more likely, realize, this will never work because austerity is laughed out of Congress. There is essentially no one who is willing to stand up for austerity and it's not because they are all dumb. It's because they know they simply can't implement it without being removed from office, which ends it.
Sorry to see you go. I've always liked working stiffs, the people who want to contribute and take meager pay for doing their job. I love these guys and gals. Simple but what works.
Clearly all Mafia Dons are a thorn in Bills side, as they should be in all of your sides. Maybe the current Don can be the last. Wouldn’t that be refreshing!!?
I don't think governments are running out of money. They are running out of the ability/credibility to convince economic actors the money is a store of value.
"Money" are you saying is the US$? Fiat currency has never been money. Gold is the only store of value and has been that way for eons. How can any fiat currency be a "store of value" when it can be printed digitally in a fraction of a second? Going to be Epic ahead. Got Gold!
Does anyone know how Scott Bessent got the job? He was the right hand man of MAGA nemesis George Soros and then went on to "manage" a hedge fund that went from $5 billion in assets under management to $577 million in a few years. Even though the Trump administration complains about DEI maybe Scottie was a DEI hire?
That's why I joined the "Vote for Nobody" coalition which is diametrically opposed to the Epstein Coalition. Nobody will balance the budget! Nobody will stop tbe endless wars! Nobody will listen to you! Nobody gives a rat's ass about you!
In 2016 Vance tweeted Trump as "My god what an idiot" regarding Trump and wrote an op-ed stating Trump was "unfit for our nation's highest office". He later retracted these and other more cutting remarks, and now is VP, and probably brought with him some behind-the-scenes support for Trump.
Trump's sycophantic cabinet, including Bessent, are all there for their own benefit, be it high office, advance notification useful for trading, etc. However, their benefit to the average voter is that they are outrageously transparent about it.
A Democratic cabinet would be similar, but probably more discreet.
Maybe there'll be a shake-out after the coming deep recession and revolution.
I love dinner parties where somebody casually explains the collapse of Western civilization.
That’s why people invite economists.
Normal dinner conversation:
How are the children?
“Wonderful.”
Did you travel this summer?
“Portugal.”
Lovely, how’s work?
“Fine.”
And Western democracy?
“INSOLVENT.”
Jiminy Crickest, Pierre, PASS THE F*CK*NG POTATO SALAD FIRST, we haven’t even gotten the bread!
The problem?
Not enough babies.
Apparently the entire fiscal architecture of Western civilization quietly depended on people CONTINUING TO BREED AT HISTORICAL RATES.
Nobody mentioned this!
They gave us charts, actuarial tables, economic forecasts, social insurance models, treasury projections, and underneath the entire freaken spreadsheet was one hidden assumption:
“Hopefully Brenda has three kids.”
Brenda has a cat.
I admire the proposal to throw bonds into a fire. It’s refreshingly physical, economics usually involves abstractions.
Debt-to-GDP ratios, real yields, and monetary aggregates.
This proposal has flames, and people understand flames.
Unfortunately, burning the bond doesn’t necessarily extinguish the obligation.
I tried this with my Visa statement.
Very satisfying.
For several minutes I was debt-free.
Then Visa emailed me.
Apparently they’ve modernized.
Mr. Bonner makes an interesting point though.
People may not understand inflation statistics, but they understand grocery stores.
Absolutely!
Nobody becomes an economist faster than a man buying bacon.
Government:
“Inflation has moderated.”
Citizen:
“How much are eggs?”
Government:
“Well, when measured against the trailing twelve-month normalized baseline…”
“HOW MUCH ARE THE FREAKIN EGGS!?”
Economist:
“Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy components.”
Citizen:
“Excellent, I’LL JUST STOP EATING AND DRIVING!”
Inflation solved, remove everything people actually purchase from the inflation index.
"Just take the bonds, he says, and ‘throw them in the fire.’ This actually may be the most honest solution. They will never be paid; might as well admit it."
And say, "but we can't! That would be dishonest."
So no we won't do that. Instead we'll just keep borrowing, and staple the bill due to our grandchildren's foreheads.
Fortunately Tim, our grandchildren will have experienced a worldwide great depression. And the debt stabled to their heads will go up in smoke. This mountain of US$ debt will be gone and us peons, our peons children, and peons grandchildren will have fell the collapse. Going to be UGLY!
Sorry to see you go, Working. I have been bitching about Bill’s non-money-related rants for a long time and wondered why I stayed as long as I have. Tom and Dan are the ties that bind, so I’ll hang on awhile longer. I have my own opinions about DJT and the political crowd, but I rarely use them to argue with those of us who haunt this subset of triviality, primarily because I enjoy reading the responses [call it my own Harris Poll]. I don’t take exception to those who disagree with me and I am too old to start calling people I don’t know from Adam names and referring to their linage. So, take care, enjoy life and don’t let the bastards get you down. One thing I think, IMO, is everyone is concerned about more than their own livelihood. We all value America and want what is best for everyone luckily enough to live here. Hopefully, when the SHTF we can all pull together and get America back to what it once was.
There is no addressing the problem. When you do not have sufficient assets that have recognized and accepted value, you are forced to print facsimiles of value which further decreases real purchasing power. This will continue, as there is no other alternative. Best case scenario would be a soft default, which is a default with lipstick. Those who hold valuable commodities will prosper those who do not with struggle.
😂😂😂👏 He was quite a tool wasn't he? Aggressive sometimes. He threatened me with physical violence. Who does that? Obviously he's just another telephone tough guy/keyboard warrior
For many years Bill and his friends have been warning about the coming DOOM! The country, and the western world, is sort of like the frog in the boiling pot, as the temperature rises, the world won't really wake up until it is TO late. We, BPR readers, are likely in better shape to weather the storm than most others in our demographic area. We can only sit back and watch the train wreck.
Jim Marshall
That safety depends on where you're sitting. Me, high in the mountains of West Virginia. We are truly going into desperate times. Politicians truly suck.
I agree.
Jim
Bill I have been a follower of your writings for decades, throughly enjoying your points on financial aspects of the economy. I could only wish you stayed in your lane, i would still be continuing. I know you don’t really care about one guy leaving - it’s like a -pimple on the ass of an elephant….i will miss prose like that of your last two posts. This is my last month with BPR, wishing you luck with your consistent attacks outside of the financial world. Why it’s important to you, IDK, but clearly Trump is a thorn in your side., truth is I don’t like him that much either however, he is the DULY elected President and deserves a modicum of respect. He does love this country and is trying to right the sinking ship. Beleive it or not. Au re Voir (-5 ,spelling)
Good au revoir except for the last couple of sentences.
They prompt me to wonder anew why so many people find laudatory a man who is a documented serial liar, tax creat, convicted felon, draft dodger, required to pay 82 million dollars for sexually attacking a woman, now abusing the Constitution and killing civilians galore in a country not a threat to us.
If you look into it with an open mind you will see they are all false charges, as for a threat you really don't understand. Having been in country since the beginning (1979), these fanatics expect to create chaos in order to user in the arrival of the 12th iman. A nuke would do it. Why would you need to enrich all the way to 60%, a short hop to 90% (weapons grade)? Civilian use would be I the 3-5% range. SO if you think they meant us no harm, think again. Peaceful means were tried for 47 year, this was long over due.
Your reply reminds me of the canard about opinions.
My parting remark can only be: because I defer to fact-finding by third parties fulfilling legal obligations that yielded an array of documented uncomplimentary facts about DJT, we perforce differ
Bon voyage en vie
More gobbled- de- gook. Glad to see U go!
Right - facts have no meaning to your kind.
Jimm, who among us says President Trump is laudatory? We who defend the President do so mostly because we believe he was/is infinitely superior to "Low-energy" Jeb and the cohort of nobodies against whom he gained the nomination and those who were his opponents in the elections: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama's autopen-idiot Vice President, and Kamala Harris. I won't go into a refutation of your other criticisms of the man, lest I bore the assemblage here even more than I already do. Best always. PM
Supporting DJT because he's the least deplorable choice suggests you have no ethical limits much less standards of conduct.
For example, surely you would not countenance him sexually assaulting one of your family members or repeatedly lying to your face or using his public office to enrich his family?
Jimm, I'm sure you noticed, I have a pragmatic side that compels me to make do with what's available. Please understand that on an ideal level, I appreciate your stance and views, and as I have said before, I'm sure we could be friends and supporters of one another, despite our practical disagreements. There is nothing personal in my comments with regard to my interactions here, but a casual dismissal of my "ethical limits" and "standards of conduct" is, for me, going a little bit over the line, and I'm sorry about that. Best always. PM
Paul
I am not casually dismissing anything. I simply posed three questions none of which you answered.
More: My disdain for DJT does not mean I endorse, admire or approve Democratic nominees.
I don't; in fact, I blame them for requiring voters to chose the least bad of two awful choices at a time when we need a wise and articulate person to navigate our ship of state out of the very troubled waters within which we have been taken by each of our 21st century profligate presidents
Hey Jim, I have to ask you. When have we seen a wise and articulate president? I would say Kennedy. He wanted to not give Israel the nuke, get rid of the CIA, and end the Vietnam War. Great president.
He can sometimes be a self-righteous ass. Sometimes he makes little sense. You never know.
respect is earned not deserved...DJT has never earned anything, everything been given or stolen
He has my respect because he stopped funding to USAID, which was the Democrats funding their corruption, he stopped funding to Universities that let racism decide who gets in (not that I'd want to get in those schools), he came to truth on vaccines damage and replaced FDA leaders and NIH leaders, he has aligned with Kennedy who is trying to understand autism and correct America food to be real food, he addressed Roundup but chose to let it stay, he stopped funding to universities that allowed men in women's sports, he has fired a lot of government workers (always a good thing in the whole bloated affair). He through Venezuela has taken away China's low cost oil and similarly with Hormuz, he has stood up to China on fentanyl, obviously an enemy that kills 100,000 Americans each year, he stopped some of the flow of fentanyl from Mexico and has their gov helping with drug lords. Canada has a globalist installed as PM that is fighting against the US proclaiming climate change and stopping the use of carbon based fuels for energy, absurd since 80% of US energy comes from Carbon Chain fuels, witness Germany while China uses coal and any oil they can get their hands on. I like it that our enemy is being confronted, they are trying to weaken us (TIKTOC), they are killing our people (fentanyl) they are trying to destroy our families by pushing wokism, our enemy steals IP and then competes by overwhelming the markets with cheap production (silicon metal for solar and computers, my company caught Chinese employees stealing IP). Trump is trying to bring back american manufacturing obviously he recognizes some of the problems and is the first president in decades that is actually doing something about it.
But he also makes mistakes, spending too much money is the biggest one, on the other hand with hundreds of congressmen and women they all think or probably more likely, realize, this will never work because austerity is laughed out of Congress. There is essentially no one who is willing to stand up for austerity and it's not because they are all dumb. It's because they know they simply can't implement it without being removed from office, which ends it.
in your humble opinion
Sorry to see you go. I've always liked working stiffs, the people who want to contribute and take meager pay for doing their job. I love these guys and gals. Simple but what works.
Too bad. I will miss Your input. Whether it be TDS or TDS.
Clearly all Mafia Dons are a thorn in Bills side, as they should be in all of your sides. Maybe the current Don can be the last. Wouldn’t that be refreshing!!?
I don't think governments are running out of money. They are running out of the ability/credibility to convince economic actors the money is a store of value.
"Money" are you saying is the US$? Fiat currency has never been money. Gold is the only store of value and has been that way for eons. How can any fiat currency be a "store of value" when it can be printed digitally in a fraction of a second? Going to be Epic ahead. Got Gold!
Does anyone know how Scott Bessent got the job? He was the right hand man of MAGA nemesis George Soros and then went on to "manage" a hedge fund that went from $5 billion in assets under management to $577 million in a few years. Even though the Trump administration complains about DEI maybe Scottie was a DEI hire?
If voting actually changed anything it would be illegal...
That's why I joined the "Vote for Nobody" coalition which is diametrically opposed to the Epstein Coalition. Nobody will balance the budget! Nobody will stop tbe endless wars! Nobody will listen to you! Nobody gives a rat's ass about you!
...your coalition is not very effective.
Nobody lost!
I mean everybody lost...
Because "somebody" keeps sending me a tax bill...
Rome wasn't built in a day! A wise man once said "A journey of a thousand miles begins with one step". It was either Lao Tzu or Soupy Sales.
But if I remember some history , Rome burnt down in 3 days . Could be wrong as My memory does not work as it was when I wore a Younger Man's trousers.
...did you use twigs and whale oil to start it?
Cartero, I am voting for "Soupy Sales"?
Maybe it was one of his Words of Wisdom or Pookie Players skits.
Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished." — Lao Tzu
Same way Vance became VP.
In 2016 Vance tweeted Trump as "My god what an idiot" regarding Trump and wrote an op-ed stating Trump was "unfit for our nation's highest office". He later retracted these and other more cutting remarks, and now is VP, and probably brought with him some behind-the-scenes support for Trump.
Trump's sycophantic cabinet, including Bessent, are all there for their own benefit, be it high office, advance notification useful for trading, etc. However, their benefit to the average voter is that they are outrageously transparent about it.
A Democratic cabinet would be similar, but probably more discreet.
Maybe there'll be a shake-out after the coming deep recession and revolution.
I am a thinking depression but I do love your optimism.
I think you just answered your question.
I love dinner parties where somebody casually explains the collapse of Western civilization.
That’s why people invite economists.
Normal dinner conversation:
How are the children?
“Wonderful.”
Did you travel this summer?
“Portugal.”
Lovely, how’s work?
“Fine.”
And Western democracy?
“INSOLVENT.”
Jiminy Crickest, Pierre, PASS THE F*CK*NG POTATO SALAD FIRST, we haven’t even gotten the bread!
The problem?
Not enough babies.
Apparently the entire fiscal architecture of Western civilization quietly depended on people CONTINUING TO BREED AT HISTORICAL RATES.
Nobody mentioned this!
They gave us charts, actuarial tables, economic forecasts, social insurance models, treasury projections, and underneath the entire freaken spreadsheet was one hidden assumption:
“Hopefully Brenda has three kids.”
Brenda has a cat.
I admire the proposal to throw bonds into a fire. It’s refreshingly physical, economics usually involves abstractions.
Debt-to-GDP ratios, real yields, and monetary aggregates.
This proposal has flames, and people understand flames.
Unfortunately, burning the bond doesn’t necessarily extinguish the obligation.
I tried this with my Visa statement.
Very satisfying.
For several minutes I was debt-free.
Then Visa emailed me.
Apparently they’ve modernized.
Mr. Bonner makes an interesting point though.
People may not understand inflation statistics, but they understand grocery stores.
Absolutely!
Nobody becomes an economist faster than a man buying bacon.
Government:
“Inflation has moderated.”
Citizen:
“How much are eggs?”
Government:
“Well, when measured against the trailing twelve-month normalized baseline…”
“HOW MUCH ARE THE FREAKIN EGGS!?”
Economist:
“Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy components.”
Citizen:
“Excellent, I’LL JUST STOP EATING AND DRIVING!”
Inflation solved, remove everything people actually purchase from the inflation index.
Housing expensive?
Exclude it!
Food expensive?
Volatile!
Gas expensive?
Energy shock!
Insurance expensive?
Special factor!
Healthcare expensive?
Structural!
College expensive?
Long-term trend!
Citizen:
“So what’s affordable?”
The Economist checks clipboard.
TELEVISIONS.
Can I eat one?
“No.”
Can I live in one?
“No.”
Can it drive me to work?
“No.”
But it’s cheaper than in 2004.
GOD BLESS AMERICA.
Glad to see you outlined all the things that are going to cost more.
Not sure about the ‘undeserved poverty’ it seems to me these people vote for others people money … and they want it sooner than later too!!
How many would look at this:
"Just take the bonds, he says, and ‘throw them in the fire.’ This actually may be the most honest solution. They will never be paid; might as well admit it."
And say, "but we can't! That would be dishonest."
So no we won't do that. Instead we'll just keep borrowing, and staple the bill due to our grandchildren's foreheads.
Fortunately Tim, our grandchildren will have experienced a worldwide great depression. And the debt stabled to their heads will go up in smoke. This mountain of US$ debt will be gone and us peons, our peons children, and peons grandchildren will have fell the collapse. Going to be UGLY!
I wish I had some confidence that you’re wrong.
Why blame the flim-flam man? He's just giving the electorate what they voted for. It's not his fault they have no skills in critical thinking.
You can't fool Mother Nature.
...but it is margarine!
Sorry to see you go, Working. I have been bitching about Bill’s non-money-related rants for a long time and wondered why I stayed as long as I have. Tom and Dan are the ties that bind, so I’ll hang on awhile longer. I have my own opinions about DJT and the political crowd, but I rarely use them to argue with those of us who haunt this subset of triviality, primarily because I enjoy reading the responses [call it my own Harris Poll]. I don’t take exception to those who disagree with me and I am too old to start calling people I don’t know from Adam names and referring to their linage. So, take care, enjoy life and don’t let the bastards get you down. One thing I think, IMO, is everyone is concerned about more than their own livelihood. We all value America and want what is best for everyone luckily enough to live here. Hopefully, when the SHTF we can all pull together and get America back to what it once was.
“Neither party even hints at addressing the real problem.” Fact.
And IMO, Trump has been a bait-and-switch when it comes to getting DC spending under control; as well as no more wars. So much for all that bluster.
“𝙉𝙚𝙞𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙮 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙖𝙩 𝙖𝙙𝙙𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙗𝙡𝙚𝙢. 𝙁𝙖𝙘𝙩."
And the reason neither party does is because both parties recognize the fact that they would never win another election if they did.
Let's face it, Sluggo, a majority of people in the US (and around the world) wish to live at someone else's expense.
And that is the saddest fact of all.
There is no addressing the problem. When you do not have sufficient assets that have recognized and accepted value, you are forced to print facsimiles of value which further decreases real purchasing power. This will continue, as there is no other alternative. Best case scenario would be a soft default, which is a default with lipstick. Those who hold valuable commodities will prosper those who do not with struggle.
Off topic: does anyone know what happened to the loquatious and verbose Patrick G? He has gone silent.
I'll miss him, if he's quit. We don't agree on much, if anything, but at least he made me think critically about my own beliefs.
(Fortunately, I'm always right.)
Oh Dear!
:)
Hopefully , band forever, with prejudice, from these pages.
😂😂😂👏 He was quite a tool wasn't he? Aggressive sometimes. He threatened me with physical violence. Who does that? Obviously he's just another telephone tough guy/keyboard warrior