A President's Day Special

Our view, a minority one...and widely viewed as ‘defeatist’...is that these things take place regardless of what anyone thinks. History marches along, thoughts get in step.

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Monday, February 16th, 2026

Bill Bonner, from Poitou, France

An open letter to POTUS. Feel free to pass this along to Mr. Trump.

‘Ok Mr. Smarty Pants,’ writes a reader. ‘What would you do?’

We have appeared, to many readers, to be critical of Mr. Trump. But we don’t criticize dogs for barking or clouds for blocking the sun. Mr. Trump is just doing the gods’ work.

But these are mischievous gods. Not the loving, beneficent Being of modern American Christianity. Certainly not the God of the Prosperity Gospel. Not the God of Faith, Hope, and Charity. These are the gods of jealousy, war and hate...lust and avarice...and poverty.

Let us remind the reader about how, we think, the political/economic system actually works. In the 1970s, a large group of thinkers — Tullock, Olson, Krueger, Niskanen, and Charlotte Twight — economists and political scientists, showed how and why normal people, pursuing their own self-interests, turn a ‘liberal’ society into an ‘illiberal’ one. Societies do not intend to become ‘fascist,’ for example. Empires do not intend to decline. Nobody really wants to stifle initiative, investment, or innovation. And nobody wants to be poor.

As we say here, people come to think what they need to think when they need to think it. They follow immediate incentives and opportunities, without much regard for the long-term or theoretical consequences.

They aim to get ahead. And they use the government – with its near-monopoly on violence -- to help. In the language of the ‘70s, they become ‘rent seekers,’ looking to exchange votes and political contributions for special treatment. One simple example — ethanol. Corn farmers — thanks largely to the disproportionate power of the Corn Belt senators — got a ‘rent’...increased demand for their product, decreed by law. In 2005, Congress insisted that energy companies buy corn-based ethanol and add it to gasoline. It would help prevent ‘global warming,’ said the sponsors. Now, it is 21 years later and the current administration believes ‘global warming’ is a hoax. But the ‘rent’ is still there. Farmers depend on it. And big agricultural industries continue to send money to politicians to thank them for their service.

‘Rents’ are by definition unnecessary and inefficient. They are subsidies, bailouts, welfare, giveaways and shake-downs. Tariffs, for example, are essentially ‘rents’ for selected industries, paid for by price hikes on consumers. Rents are put in place to favor a group of beneficiaries. They disfavor everyone else. And then, they are rarely removed.

Over time, these ‘rents’ build up...and become a huge drag on the economy and a huge waste of taxpayer money. That’s part of the reason the feds will run a deficit of nearly $2 trillion this year, with no major war and no recession.

Today, nearly everyone gets a ‘rent’ of one form or another. Rich people. Poor people. In-between people. And Donald Trump adds to them rapidly...with tariffs, Tariff Dividends...Warrior Dividends...and Baby Bonds.

With so many suckling piglets, the sow grows weak. A once-dynamic empire goes into decline, naturally and normally. Increasing ‘rents,’ helps bring the future forward.

Our view, a minority one...and widely viewed as ‘defeatist’...is that these things take place regardless of what anyone thinks. History marches along, thoughts get in step.

The winning quality of Donald Trump is that he is extraordinarily ‘normal,’ pursuing his own interests with a single-mindedness that is rarely matched. Like everyone else, he thinks what he needs to think...and nothing more. And he may be right.

A real reformer would probably not be tolerated. People do not give up their rents readily. They think they are entitled to them...that they have a right to them. Anyone who would take them away must be a communist! A terrorist! An anti-American! A threat to God and country!

Wisely, Mr. Trump has never asked for our advice. But we give it to him anyway.

Dear Mr. President,

The way forward, if you wanted to Make America Great Again, is simple enough. We’ll outline it for you. But we will also warn you; if you actually tried to do it, there would be more than just a kid on a rooftop gunning for you.

So, let’s dig in.

Empires come and go. And they most often go in a godawful blur of corruption, bankruptcy, and violence. Their money turns to trash. Their armies are defeated or betray them. Civil war destroys the unity of the people. Then the once-proud citizens are impoverished, killed, enslaved...and dumped on the ash heap of history.

Still, if you wanted to go down in history as the man who tried to save the empire rather than wreck it, you should make it your mission to 1) protect the integrity of the US money system...2) avoid spending more than the feds get in revenue...and 3) avoid any and all wars that are not purely defensive.

The first step is to announce a change of program. Henceforth there will be no more deficits. None. No tariffs. No sanctions. No money printing. And no more inflation. A balanced budget should be made ‘non-negotiable.’ And your dollar should be unassailable. Abolish the Fed immediately.

You’re going to have to cut about $2 trillion in spending. That’s an average income for about 30 million people; they’re not going to take too kindly to it.

As Mr. Milei has shown, don’t try a slow, gradual or incremental approach. Pull the bandaid off quickly.

Take your case directly to the people. Explain that the country is going broke and must be turned around. Someone has to do it. ‘If not us, who? If not now, when?’

The feds are expected to collect $4.9 trillion in tax revenue this year. That’s your limit. Not a penny more. Explain it to the voters. They’ll understand. That would have been enough to fund the entire federal budget in 2019. Wasn’t that enough?

Outlays are now expected to come to $7.2 trillion; that’s where that $2 trillion figure came from. You take out the meat axe. Let the cabinet deputies figure out the details.

One exception. Since the other big risk to the empire comes from the military, you’ve got to use this occasion to get the Military Industrial Spy Complex under control. Either you control it, or it controls you. Off the leash, it will drag you into wars, bust your budget, and maybe destroy your army too.

The last president who tried to bring the spooks to heel was JFK. Someone shot him dead...you don’t want that to happen to you, so you’ve got to move carefully. But forcefully.

The real ‘defense’ budget is probably around $500 billion. Experts say that would be enough to defend the country from any plausible attacker. The rest — about $1 trillion — is a ‘rent,’ money that goes to the firepower industry and other special interests.

Watch out. Those people are armed and dangerous.

And by the way, you’re clearly fighting the tide of history here...but that’s what you need to do. The empire ‘wants’ to self-destruct in a blaze of sordid glory. You’re trying to stop it.

So, don’t dilly dally...don’t tergiversate — go for it. Cut a trillion from the ‘defense’ budget. Go on TV to explain it to the public. You’re not leaving the country defenseless; you’re making it stronger than ever — financially, economically, militarily.

Tell the truth; taxpayers and consumers have been getting ripped off for decades. Not by foreigners; by their own government. Now is the time to stop it...get rid of so many accumulated ‘rents’...and Make America Great Again.

Go ahead. Give it a try. And if you survive, you’ll be a real, live hero.

Just trying to be helpful,

Bill Bonner