When the Lights go out in Omaha

Modern economies are extremely complicated and extremely vulnerable to centralized failure. When the Federal Reserve makes the wrong move, it can crash the whole financial system.

94-year old Warren Buffett announces his retirement as the head of Berkshire Hathaway in front of a crowd of thousands at the company’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.

Monday, May 5^th, 2025

Bill Bonner, from the ranch at Gualfin, Argentina

‘Now we’re cooking with gas!’

—Advertising slogan.

Associated Press:

Massive power outage in Spain and Portugal leaves thousands stranded and millions without light

An unprecedented blackout brought much of Spain and Portugal to a standstill Monday, stranding thousands of train passengers and leaving millions of people without phone and internet coverage and access to cash from ATMs across the Iberian Peninsula.

Emergency services and rail workers in Spain had to help evacuate some 35,000 people from over 100 trains that stopped on the tracks when the electricity was cut. By 11 p.m. passengers from 11 trains still needed evacuating, Sánchez said.

“I’ve been here for almost three hours, trying to get someone to take me to the airport because my family arrived today and I can’t talk to them," Jessica Fernández told The Associated Press. “This is terrifying.”

Tout de suite, the ‘right’ blames renewables. It says 58% of Spain’s electricity at the time of the blackout came from solar panels. The ‘left,’ of course, wants more windmills and solar panels...to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

Here at the ranch in Argentina, power outages are not a problem. We are not connected to the grid. Instead, the sun charges large batteries. A few days without sun, however...and the power will go out.

No problem. Candles. Wood fires. Plenty of beef on the hoof. Plenty of wine in the storeroom. We can live without electricity almost indefinitely.

But civilized societies are wired. And the authorities are trying to increase reliance on the wires. And like central planning, central banking, and centralized trade rules,central power comes with risks.

Europe is convinced that the world produces too much carbon and that it must go Net Zero — at almost any cost. Architects, planners, builders, politicians — all want ‘all electric,’ all the time. Automobiles to plug in too. Two million electric cars were sold in Europe last year, bringing the EV share of the whole fleet to 15%. That makes more than 30 million cars that won’t run without electricity.

The others won’t run either — not after the electric pumps stop working.

‘Green’ energy sources are not nearly as reliable as old-fashioned coal, oil or gas. The wind doesn’t always blow when you want to use the toaster...and the sun isn’t necessarily shining when you want to take a bath.

The authorities insist that they can overcome the variability of the weather — by adding more panels and windmills. Maybe they can. But when the power went out last week, people wondered if there weren’t other things at work. Like terrorists. Scalawags with a yen for mischief. Or maybe centralized energy itself.

As the electrical grid becomes larger and more complex, it involves more electronics...more engineers...more computer nerds...and more malcontents — that is, more things that can err. Then, the odds of system failure are multiplied, not added. Two plus two plus four may equal eight...but they make a complex system 16 times more likely to fail. The promoters put in more costly fail-safe controls and reserve generating power...but, often, they just increase the number of things that might go wrong.

And as they introduce more grid-protecting software, they tempt the cyber desperadoes.

The lights went out in Spain, Portugal and parts of France within five seconds. They stayed out for about ten hours in most places. Apart from those who were unable to cook a warm meal, there were those who were standing on the platforms waiting for a train to take them home. Where did they go? Were their antique legs able to get them there?

And what about the many people who rely on oxygen concentrators...or needed prompt visits from medical professionals? What about those on the 25th floor...with weak knees and no working elevator?

A week after the blackout on the Iberian Peninsula began, the experts are still trying to figure out what had gone wrong. In this case, they were able to get the electrons flowing after a few feverish hours. But what if they could not?

What if each fix were again attacked...and quickly undone?

The troubling fact is, modern economies are extremely complicated and extremely vulnerable to centralized failure. When the Federal Reserve makes the wrong move, it can crash the whole financial system. This is a point Nassim Taleb made in his great book, ‘Antifragile.’ Centralized political, financial and energy systems are fragile. When they fail, they can fail bigly.

How many people would suffer if their heat went off...their credit cards didn’t work... their phones went silent...the ATM was unplugged...the gas pumps didn’t pump and the shelves couldn’t be restocked by the trucks that weren’t running and the computers that weren’t toting up sales?

We hope we are down here at the ranch when we find out.

Regards,

Bill Bonner

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