Sunday, June 28th, 2026
Laramie, Wyoming
Cruising down over Ontario, and then across Minnesota and parts of North Dakota and Wyoming into Denver yesterday, I thought about the first half of the year and the map above. Markets are cruising into the mid-point of the year and likely to be quiet this week in the build up to America’s big 250th birthday bash on Saturday, July 4th. Of course markets are under no obligation to take a vacation, so we’ll see.
The map above shows a geographical oddity. It’s called North Two Ocean Creek, here in Wyoming’s Teton Wilderess. It sits at Two Ocean Pass on the Continental Divide, 8,200 feet above sea level. As if there were a silent Moses with his staff, the waters part at the pass and head in different directions to different geographies and destinies.
The Atlantic side of the creek heads north and east to the Yellowstone, Missouri, and Mississippi Rivers for almost 3,500 miles. Then it hits the Gulf of America/Mexico. The Pacific side of the creek heads south and West to the Snake and Columbia rivers, before reaching the mighty Pacific.
Here’s the inflation-adjusted S&P at the mid-year pass. It’s up 7.4% year-to-date. That’s after being down 7.3% at the end of March. And get this, since ChatGPT came out in November of 2022, the S&P is up over 80% (higher if you include reinvested dividends).
Which way now, America?
If the metrics could speak, the would say ‘lower.’ The index trades at 3.6 times sales (it was just over 3 before the big dip in 2021). CAPE Shiller is over 40. The P/E ratio is over 30. The dividend yield is barely above 1%. And the earnings yield (the inverse of the P/E ratio) is barely above 3%.
But metrics aren’t market timers. And they don’t talk.
We do, though! You’ll find all the best from BPR this last week below. It was great catching with Bill and Tom in London. More on that—and what’s next—this week.
Until then,
Dan
P.S. Paid subscribers should be sure to review Investment Director Tom Dyson’s July Monthly Strategy Report. Tom is as excited about red dirt as he’s about anything else in recent memory. See the full report for reasons why.
P.P.S. If you’re not a paying subscriber, why not? You’re missing all our best research. Fix that today and sign up here. We’ve given you the best deal we can offer. After July 4th, you won’t see it again.
Good and quick update Dan. Yes, we need to buckle up!