Tariffs are essentially a sales tax. And a sales tax — averaging maybe 15% — is going to reduce consumer purchasing power…and cut into sales and profits. That is, it will be downer.
Should tariffs drive up prices, and in the long term such is likely unavoidable, although not in a consistent, across-the-board way, then, in response to tariffs (tax), prices may go up, but rising prices by themselves are not inflation. We have become accustomed to the idea that increasing prices are, in and of themselves, inflation, because price increases so often accompany money creation, the cause of inflation. Inflation is an increase in the money supply larger than the value of the production value in the economy. Therefore, it is, as Milton Friedman said, always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Prices may increase, and no one likes to see it. Taxes are never a positive for anyone but government, but taxes are not inflationary. Money printing is inflationary, and over the last 50+ years, we've printed $37 trillion dollars more than we have produced. Are you surprised prices have risen? As my high school math teacher said, "Gentlemen, your equations must balance." Best always. PM
I think Bill needs to widen his gaze a bit and not blind himself by staring at Trump so much. Yes, tariffs are a sales tax. But guess what? Most European countries have a VAT (sales) tax of about that same amount. What if (taking the opposite view from Bill, the most charitable to Trump), Trump is trying to compensate for a horribly irresponsible Congress that refuses to balance the budget? The president cannot unilaterally raise taxes to raise revenue to try to fill the deficit gap, *except* when you do some mental and legal gymnastics and utilize some arcane old laws, and then you can affect tariff rates. I am sympathetic to Bessents' claim that the reserve currency status of the dollar is both a privelege *and* a problem, in that it gradually exports America's wealth overseas. I am also sympathetic to Trumps argument that every time something goes wrong in the world, the world expects the US to "do something", whether it's wars or disasters, and maybe they should pay something for that aid or protection.
I find "Big Man Bad" to be just as tedious as "Orange Man Bad".
Somewhere, someone else other than myself - someone with better financial “street creds”- will explain to me why all the prognosis for a 15% tariff hike always assume a concomitant consumer price hike. Why we can disregard the quasi-capitalist interference in their export markets with their own version of “the hidden hand” of regulatory barrier and VAT taxes? Why these same regimes will be fine with pricing themselves out of foreign market sales after simply adding that 15% to their product? Why their market manipulation maneuver would not call on them to reduce their VAT taxes on exports by a commensurate 15%, simply to retain market share.that buoys their own command economy? I suppose I can wait like everyone else to hear the explanation as to why the inflation experience here never fully reflected their worst fears.
You might be waiting a long time. You have touched on one main aspect to the "rest of the story" that Mr. Bonner purposefully omits from ALL of his Trump-bashing missives on the subject of Tariffs.
I know Bill NEVER deigns to stoop so low as to respond directly to one of his paying customers, but I'd LOVE to see a real source for this, his oft-repeated assertion. In the extensive research about all things tariff I have done over the last 8 months, I have not seen this "fact" even remotely repeated anywhere. Except from the keyboard of one Bill Bonner who frequently uses this statement to continue his feeble attempts at "getting" the Big Man while trying to convince the rest of us that Trump is the worst thing to ever happen to America. If there is hard data to back-up what appears to be a Bonner Tariff Fetish dream, let's see it. There sure is a TON of other evidence that shows totally different Rates of Disparity in our pre-Trump tariff scheme.
Oh well, we've all likely got better things to do. So just like the "media", the internet and my Aunt Betty - when a libtarde "elite" says something, it must be true.
I hope you're enjoying a beautiful early-Fall day wherever you are, and have a GREAT weekend, friends and foes alike......
Regardless of this “1% difference”, I find the inadequate treatment of the overall issue of international trade barriers to be somewhat frustrating. Particularly, from a source such as Bill. I would expect some historical context that would include regulatory barriers and VAT at the very least. The perspective that the 15% Trump imposed tariff levy turning into a 15% increase to consumers, to me, is ill-informed and overly simplistic.
Unfortunately, you are way too intellectual for what Bonner writes. Bonner (who I now refer to as Bongo Bill since he is nothing but an anti-Trumpian shill) is not the one you will get answers from. Dan and Tom are the main movers in BPR, but they usually don't get too deep in political analysis while still doing a credible job in analyzing the financial landscape. Bongo's analysis is basically that Trump is wrong about everything. He never mentions the deregulation that is being implemented, efforts to promote energy production, or investments in America, as well as Trump's efforts to bring manufacturing back to the USA.
When America was the power house of manufacturing, tariffs paid to build roads and build out the nation. All we have to trade today is the USD. We might as well pay the interest on the debt with tariff taxes.
A better idea would be to cancel all debt and dissolve the Federal Reserve banking system. Fat chance that will ever happen.
You have things exactly backwards. When the roads were being built there US was the leader in promoting free trade. Competition is what produces innovation and wealth. Today China copies that model and the USA and virtually every US resident are not only becoming more poor, but is tottering on the verge of total collapse a la Argentina. China and its free trade orbit of most of the countries of the world are booming in wealth production and innovation.
China (and many other nations) could vastly underprice their goods to be sold in our consumer markets if they were to directly pass along their own cost of input (labor & materials), yet they apply a VAT tax and still present their goods as the less expensive alternative in our markets. They do this by taking the position that foreign consumers shouldn't benefit from the vastly lower wages in (our example of) China. They do this with one eye on what cost structure is competitive here. Let's understand this more fully.
We don't impose a VAT tax because, generally speaking, we don't manufacture for export. What we do export, speaking generally again, are our services. If we begin to think about access to our consumer base as a "service" to the world, it puts an entirely different light on things.
This position made even more apparent with the proposition that, should China's government drop their VAT and regulatory hurdles, we will drop out Tariffs. A trade reciprocity and one that will endure for a more peaceful world.
Their VAT revenue finance their governments expenses. Our Taxes and now our debt, finances ours. That is, our people - our businesses and our wage earners - finance ours. In a very real sense, our people are today, borrowing from foreign nations to finance and provide these same nations market access to what is 30% of the worlds' consumers. That's just a slow form of suicide. The worst kind.... We're now simply taking the position that US taxpayers should stop borrowing on the backs of our citizens in order to pay the way for non-citizens and their governments, market access here As I see this, both China and the US are being presented a choice. As Yogi Berra, would suggest - we should take it.
That was exactly my thought. A tariff does not necessarily create a price increase thereby assuming it’s a tax increase. BB never gives Donald Trump ‘ANY’ benefit of the doubt.
We gave him ALL the benefit of the doubt by voting for him and supporting his ironclad promise of peace and prosperity. He has attacked in only 8 months twice as many countries as China has in 3000 years. Every time he opens his mouth it’s about “destroying China”, words and actual thoughts that would never even cross the mind of a Chinese person thinking of the US. They 1) know and forever appreciate that this week’s parade was only possible because of America’s Flying Tigers (in WWII) and have conducted some 80 annual celebrations plus erected a monument in their deserved honor, 2) publicly and constantly praise Nixon and Kissinger and 3) discarded Mao’s collectivism in favor of American free enterprise, free trade and competition—all of which Trump is foolishly devastating with his words and policies of raising taxes, dismissing every country leader except Netanyahu, actually supporting the dead end slaughter in Israel, and beating up (torturing when possible) actual workers and small enterprise. I know it’s foolish to ask the people who denounce Bill to just read the ongoing statistics, so I won’t. But Trumpism is a lot more reflective of pre-1979 China than 1950’s USA.
All I will say is that when I was in Shanghai on business several years ago, the engineers (mostly women) were shocked to hear that we didn't regard them as "enemies". More so as competitors. They, in turn revealed that they were taught that w hated them and, I sensed, were greatly relieved to hear from our side. I listen to DJT as we all do. His language is blunt but he alternates between his "respect and friendship" and his ardent support for tariffs.
The man in the Ring.
BTW: our business there was essentially handing off out coal fired power plant technology. "Why not?" many here would say.. Either "we're not going to need it" or "it's too dirty". If of the latter camp, please understand that in China, they employ no Scrubber technology and the toxic effluent they will produce burning coal wafts westward, across the Pacific Ocean, where the same people on the west coast of the US that inhale these fumes, with their backs to Asia, are lecturing everyone else here on their environmentalist rectitude.
You are entitled to your opinion which I strongly disagree. Only time will tell if Trump is doing the right thing for America. I believe he is. I wish you good health to see the results. AP
Yes, time will tell Abe and, I do support our President. But please see with me the fact that continuing down the path of complacency is, in and of itself, a choice of sorts. Albeit a choice with a very predictable end.
No nation can long exist by borrowing (selling treasury notes) from the very same people that they subsidize by giving away their services.
It appears to have taken a sharp elbowed and somewhat narcissistic businessman to point this out and that alone ruffles some feathers.
Dude. What is wrong with you? You didn't used to be this alarmingly indoctrinated. Every spec of that is 𝙙𝙚𝙢𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙮 untrue and borders on delusion. You SERIOUSLY need to turn off your tv and seek professional help....
It’s the same simplistic version of “economic analysis” one expects from those completely unfamiliar with international trade rules. Or the different levels of government intrusion in the marketplace between the various government models. Waiving VAT taxes for China’s Xi on their exports is done easily. Here? Bill is entitled to his political bias but not at the expense of his objective analysis. I expect more.
With regard to protecting domestic markets, there are many ways to levy fees or erect barriers beyond imposing tariffs. Wondering when media will begin to talk about these?
Below Ed makes some excellent points. My take is I think at times ole BBB makes some points, then he peppers in his hatred for Trump causing me to doubt his initial analysis. That, and the fact that so far, these tariffs have had minimal impact on consumers, and finally as Ed point out, other countries may not call them tariffs but they do have VAT, essentially the same thing. Ole BBB never has anything to say about these democratic/socialist politicians charging essentially Americans the same bullshit.
Consequently, it just ends creditability to his own socialist/ democrat views.
It makes sense, Now that he has secured his millions, has purchased property all over the world and lives comfortably as perhaps the top .01%, what else is there for the old geezer but to pursue an area that he avoid during his money making days. BB has truly become creepy with his Machiavellian analysis.
As much as it will be disturbing to most of America a slow down of the economy might be a good idea. Housing, and all costs associated with it, have gone parabolic in my area of the east coast. Houses I speculated on 10 years go for $2000-$60,000 now sell for $85,000 to $200,000. Mind you these homes received very basic upgrades. So insane is the market I started selling into this bubble. Glad I did, because the availability of qualified tenants to cover the new financing is very limited. Low income tenants were then the working poor labor. Today these homes are occupied by blue and white collar owners straining under consumer debt, with little or no equity.
The solution to high prices, is high prices, followed by foreclosure, bankruptcy, and discharging of debt. Sadly, American's never learn. When money is cheap handed out like water, it's time to invest, take profits and pay off debt. The opposite is witnessed as American's drive up the price of real estate, and consumer debt then go down with the ship at the end of each cycle.
Proof of my thesis, just a few years ago gold was dirt cheap. I bought some, and suggested friends do the same. I was met with a stare and open mouth. Why would you buy gold when everything is going up but gold? One of these friends just walked away from a rental house purchased with a down payment of $20k inheritance. He then mortgaged it beyond any tenant's rent to cover the monthly holding costs.
I'm not one to gloat, his $20k down payment and smoke and mirrors equity is gone. $20k saved in gold at $476 or 42 ounces for an Eagle at todays $3700 per coin is over $155k today. Gold wasn't going down in the $400 range if it had, I'd have bought more.
My advice to anyone in a similar situation, mortgage heck or sell and buy gold even at these current valuations, cause the dollar isn't on any path to going up in value.
Housing/real estate is only going "parabolic" in areas where there is demand. Governments in these high-demand, parabolic environments are encouraging the trend, because it resets assessed values and income from property taxes fill the coffers for more government. The banks are in cahoots as well. In my rural situation, real estate is dead in the water and has been since 2008. The key to real estate sales and prices are move-ins. Move-ins come where there is general economic activity, and people have income. Where I live, welfare IS the economy, and therefore, there is no economy. Best always. PM
My parabolic area is Philadelphia, where 90% of housing units are rental multi family. The market is driven by NY investors following their previous tenants fleeing a costly crime ridden, and over crowded rental area to a seeming bargain destination. Moving to spacious amenity filled new construction with plentiful parking. Philadelphia has its crime areas but for the most part there is no fear of harm during the day and in most areas at night. The near suburbs have boomed as young couples with children seek good schools, private yards, and near zero crime.
If not for my wife and our grandchildren I'd be living in Virginia or Southwestern PA near a Holler on 100 acres in an older home bought for cash. I found such a property 97 acres with a stream which included mineral and logging rights with a house and dilapidated barn for $120k. The place would be a bolt hole, but the wife is not having it.
Don't worry the cure to low prices is low prices. Which come with low taxes and more freedom.
Dennis, my wife and I have just built a house in the mountains of West Virginia. It was completed last year. The tax bill for the year is $255. Bolthole. This house is big enough To hold all the people In my crew if needed.
I think you're early and that is a good thing. I'd love to do the same but my wife would not be onboard. She'd look at the money spent as a missed opportunity to go on a Viking Cruise or a European vacation.
Thank you for your response and analysis. Having lived in Baltimore in 1974-76, I saw early on what the future of America would be. I moved to my current location from a decaying metro area in 1990. Been here ever since. Move-ins with money or who can qualify for money drive real estate. I'm paid off and set up for The Big Loss coming to the country soon. All the Dems have to sell is welfare, crime, drugs, and 3rd-world invasion (i.e. crime). Good luck to your and yours. Best always. PM
If you have a fixed supply lets say, a million dollars, in the aggregate regardles of demand supply fundmentals in the real economy on net you have no inflation. Prices change relative to the money stock in circulation. Technically speaking. Taking it further if there's a 10% loss in goods due to business closures on net, you have no inflation, given there's no increase in the supply of the money stock in aggregate. And that there, is the dirty little secret of the statists.
So, if tariffs currently average 15% and the trade weighted $ is down approximately 10% year to date, then average imports cost 25% more. I wonder what happens to demand?
Well, Angry I just read a part of the report By Stephen Miran . You know the man that MR. T. wants in at the fed. His reset includes a thing that , well not a thing , but 3 things that stand out to Me #1 is-security zones. #2 is funded by century bonds, not short term bills. # 3-unless You swap Your bills for bonds , tariffs will keep You out. So those that want to trade with the USA will buy all the debt that US has and pay off the deficit. Not a bad way for the US , but a bad way for the rest of traders who want to deal with the US. These traders will pay off the debt! Now I may be a bit off on My conclusion. I am sure that someone with More knowledge will in form Me.
Angry icebergs, I don’t get your point. Other nations aren’t raising tariffs on each other. So those that export to the US will suffer (lower demand or substitution or both). But that was not my point. The US consumer suffers, the US consumer pays the price (tariffs plus a weaker dollar). You want a Porsche? You’ll buy a Mustang instead? Look at history tariffs will cause global contraction… is that good for anyone?
That must be one heck of a tall iceberg. You see very clearly from atop it.
Unfortunately, Bill and those like him pine away for results that reflect your second list. So a VERY valid question would be: Do they cheer for the worst outcomes to affect America because they hate the Country or because the alternative would give Trump and his Policies success and vindication?
Based on their own words and actions, either answer proves what kind of people they really are, deep down inside......
I’m familiar with Robert Kennedy Jr. I’ve been a member of CHD for a number of years. I’ve been to a CHD conference in Savannah a couple of years ago! I own and have read some of Bobby’s books, and Bobby is not saying the same things he said in the past! I know he’s under pressure from the Senate and probably from the Big Man himself! He is clearly not the only person I am listening to regarding mRNA vaccines!
I’m not here to dissuade anybody from any notions that they have! I just try to put information out there if someone chooses to view it! If you feel confident about any particular subject, then I am sure you will do as you see fit and I wish you well!
I hear and, oddly, agree with both of you (not that it matters.)
I think mRNA Vaxxes could be a major step forward for Humanity - but we are a LONG way from having done the Research and Collected/Analyzed/Tested/Verified enough data to allow the technology a carte blanche run throughout our Health Care system - much less have anything like a Mandate attached to them.....
PS - I'm pissed because I have seen where Pet Vaccines will all be mRNA based stating in 2026. It's way too early for that. I guess I'll have to do all I can to keep Tippers Marie and Penny Raine thriving without them....
Polio was ravaging this country for the first 50 years of the 20th century. There was a public urgency in this country to find a vaccine. Despite the urgency, the Salk vaccine, which showed great promise, went through a 10-year vetting process, before it was released to public en masse. We failed in this regard (vetting) utterly with the Covid panic and paid the price. Politics above all. Best always. PM
Brother SE, if we are going mRNA in the veterinary field, it is, indeed, a sad day for me. I can opt of vaccines, but, unfortunately, if I want the cooperation of my vet, I have to keep the pets up on their shots. I think I hear Jim Reeves: "Four walls closing in on me..." Thanks for this information. Best always. PM
My wife of 59 years died after taking that crap. Scans showed blood clots in her lungs. I dare some asshole to attempt to inject me with that crap. You bet I am an angry old man with all my teeth. If you love your spouse take heed; if you want to get rid of them fire away.
Should tariffs drive up prices, and in the long term such is likely unavoidable, although not in a consistent, across-the-board way, then, in response to tariffs (tax), prices may go up, but rising prices by themselves are not inflation. We have become accustomed to the idea that increasing prices are, in and of themselves, inflation, because price increases so often accompany money creation, the cause of inflation. Inflation is an increase in the money supply larger than the value of the production value in the economy. Therefore, it is, as Milton Friedman said, always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Prices may increase, and no one likes to see it. Taxes are never a positive for anyone but government, but taxes are not inflationary. Money printing is inflationary, and over the last 50+ years, we've printed $37 trillion dollars more than we have produced. Are you surprised prices have risen? As my high school math teacher said, "Gentlemen, your equations must balance." Best always. PM
I think Bill needs to widen his gaze a bit and not blind himself by staring at Trump so much. Yes, tariffs are a sales tax. But guess what? Most European countries have a VAT (sales) tax of about that same amount. What if (taking the opposite view from Bill, the most charitable to Trump), Trump is trying to compensate for a horribly irresponsible Congress that refuses to balance the budget? The president cannot unilaterally raise taxes to raise revenue to try to fill the deficit gap, *except* when you do some mental and legal gymnastics and utilize some arcane old laws, and then you can affect tariff rates. I am sympathetic to Bessents' claim that the reserve currency status of the dollar is both a privelege *and* a problem, in that it gradually exports America's wealth overseas. I am also sympathetic to Trumps argument that every time something goes wrong in the world, the world expects the US to "do something", whether it's wars or disasters, and maybe they should pay something for that aid or protection.
I find "Big Man Bad" to be just as tedious as "Orange Man Bad".
Somewhere, someone else other than myself - someone with better financial “street creds”- will explain to me why all the prognosis for a 15% tariff hike always assume a concomitant consumer price hike. Why we can disregard the quasi-capitalist interference in their export markets with their own version of “the hidden hand” of regulatory barrier and VAT taxes? Why these same regimes will be fine with pricing themselves out of foreign market sales after simply adding that 15% to their product? Why their market manipulation maneuver would not call on them to reduce their VAT taxes on exports by a commensurate 15%, simply to retain market share.that buoys their own command economy? I suppose I can wait like everyone else to hear the explanation as to why the inflation experience here never fully reflected their worst fears.
You might be waiting a long time. You have touched on one main aspect to the "rest of the story" that Mr. Bonner purposefully omits from ALL of his Trump-bashing missives on the subject of Tariffs.
Speaking of which - today we get this:
"...𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 1% 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘵𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘱𝘢𝘺 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘥 𝘶𝘴."
I know Bill NEVER deigns to stoop so low as to respond directly to one of his paying customers, but I'd LOVE to see a real source for this, his oft-repeated assertion. In the extensive research about all things tariff I have done over the last 8 months, I have not seen this "fact" even remotely repeated anywhere. Except from the keyboard of one Bill Bonner who frequently uses this statement to continue his feeble attempts at "getting" the Big Man while trying to convince the rest of us that Trump is the worst thing to ever happen to America. If there is hard data to back-up what appears to be a Bonner Tariff Fetish dream, let's see it. There sure is a TON of other evidence that shows totally different Rates of Disparity in our pre-Trump tariff scheme.
Oh well, we've all likely got better things to do. So just like the "media", the internet and my Aunt Betty - when a libtarde "elite" says something, it must be true.
I hope you're enjoying a beautiful early-Fall day wherever you are, and have a GREAT weekend, friends and foes alike......
Regardless of this “1% difference”, I find the inadequate treatment of the overall issue of international trade barriers to be somewhat frustrating. Particularly, from a source such as Bill. I would expect some historical context that would include regulatory barriers and VAT at the very least. The perspective that the 15% Trump imposed tariff levy turning into a 15% increase to consumers, to me, is ill-informed and overly simplistic.
Unfortunately, you are way too intellectual for what Bonner writes. Bonner (who I now refer to as Bongo Bill since he is nothing but an anti-Trumpian shill) is not the one you will get answers from. Dan and Tom are the main movers in BPR, but they usually don't get too deep in political analysis while still doing a credible job in analyzing the financial landscape. Bongo's analysis is basically that Trump is wrong about everything. He never mentions the deregulation that is being implemented, efforts to promote energy production, or investments in America, as well as Trump's efforts to bring manufacturing back to the USA.
Hiya John -
Surely this is a bad thing in Bonnerthink:
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/us-oil-output-breaks-records-3-energy-producers-watch
Yes. Any success under Trump is a no-no for Bongo.
When America was the power house of manufacturing, tariffs paid to build roads and build out the nation. All we have to trade today is the USD. We might as well pay the interest on the debt with tariff taxes.
A better idea would be to cancel all debt and dissolve the Federal Reserve banking system. Fat chance that will ever happen.
You have things exactly backwards. When the roads were being built there US was the leader in promoting free trade. Competition is what produces innovation and wealth. Today China copies that model and the USA and virtually every US resident are not only becoming more poor, but is tottering on the verge of total collapse a la Argentina. China and its free trade orbit of most of the countries of the world are booming in wealth production and innovation.
China (and many other nations) could vastly underprice their goods to be sold in our consumer markets if they were to directly pass along their own cost of input (labor & materials), yet they apply a VAT tax and still present their goods as the less expensive alternative in our markets. They do this by taking the position that foreign consumers shouldn't benefit from the vastly lower wages in (our example of) China. They do this with one eye on what cost structure is competitive here. Let's understand this more fully.
We don't impose a VAT tax because, generally speaking, we don't manufacture for export. What we do export, speaking generally again, are our services. If we begin to think about access to our consumer base as a "service" to the world, it puts an entirely different light on things.
This position made even more apparent with the proposition that, should China's government drop their VAT and regulatory hurdles, we will drop out Tariffs. A trade reciprocity and one that will endure for a more peaceful world.
Their VAT revenue finance their governments expenses. Our Taxes and now our debt, finances ours. That is, our people - our businesses and our wage earners - finance ours. In a very real sense, our people are today, borrowing from foreign nations to finance and provide these same nations market access to what is 30% of the worlds' consumers. That's just a slow form of suicide. The worst kind.... We're now simply taking the position that US taxpayers should stop borrowing on the backs of our citizens in order to pay the way for non-citizens and their governments, market access here As I see this, both China and the US are being presented a choice. As Yogi Berra, would suggest - we should take it.
"...𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘰𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘱𝘴𝘦...."
Exhibit #1 that CNN and MSLSD ROT THE BRAINS of their viewers.
Yes folks, the Hypocrats really ARE this stupid....
I have to admit I m wiping the tears from eyes in laughter thanks Starboard its good to take on different perspectives especially with humour.
That was exactly my thought. A tariff does not necessarily create a price increase thereby assuming it’s a tax increase. BB never gives Donald Trump ‘ANY’ benefit of the doubt.
We gave him ALL the benefit of the doubt by voting for him and supporting his ironclad promise of peace and prosperity. He has attacked in only 8 months twice as many countries as China has in 3000 years. Every time he opens his mouth it’s about “destroying China”, words and actual thoughts that would never even cross the mind of a Chinese person thinking of the US. They 1) know and forever appreciate that this week’s parade was only possible because of America’s Flying Tigers (in WWII) and have conducted some 80 annual celebrations plus erected a monument in their deserved honor, 2) publicly and constantly praise Nixon and Kissinger and 3) discarded Mao’s collectivism in favor of American free enterprise, free trade and competition—all of which Trump is foolishly devastating with his words and policies of raising taxes, dismissing every country leader except Netanyahu, actually supporting the dead end slaughter in Israel, and beating up (torturing when possible) actual workers and small enterprise. I know it’s foolish to ask the people who denounce Bill to just read the ongoing statistics, so I won’t. But Trumpism is a lot more reflective of pre-1979 China than 1950’s USA.
All I will say is that when I was in Shanghai on business several years ago, the engineers (mostly women) were shocked to hear that we didn't regard them as "enemies". More so as competitors. They, in turn revealed that they were taught that w hated them and, I sensed, were greatly relieved to hear from our side. I listen to DJT as we all do. His language is blunt but he alternates between his "respect and friendship" and his ardent support for tariffs.
The man in the Ring.
BTW: our business there was essentially handing off out coal fired power plant technology. "Why not?" many here would say.. Either "we're not going to need it" or "it's too dirty". If of the latter camp, please understand that in China, they employ no Scrubber technology and the toxic effluent they will produce burning coal wafts westward, across the Pacific Ocean, where the same people on the west coast of the US that inhale these fumes, with their backs to Asia, are lecturing everyone else here on their environmentalist rectitude.
Go figure....
Ed
You are entitled to your opinion which I strongly disagree. Only time will tell if Trump is doing the right thing for America. I believe he is. I wish you good health to see the results. AP
Yes, time will tell Abe and, I do support our President. But please see with me the fact that continuing down the path of complacency is, in and of itself, a choice of sorts. Albeit a choice with a very predictable end.
No nation can long exist by borrowing (selling treasury notes) from the very same people that they subsidize by giving away their services.
It appears to have taken a sharp elbowed and somewhat narcissistic businessman to point this out and that alone ruffles some feathers.
Oh well....
"𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘩𝘭𝘺 𝘥𝘦𝘷𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘢𝘹𝘦𝘴, 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘦𝘱𝘵 𝘕𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘢𝘩𝘶, 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘭𝘢𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘐𝘴𝘳𝘢𝘦𝘭, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘣𝘦𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘱 (𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦) 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦."
Dude. What is wrong with you? You didn't used to be this alarmingly indoctrinated. Every spec of that is 𝙙𝙚𝙢𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙮 untrue and borders on delusion. You SERIOUSLY need to turn off your tv and seek professional help....
Agreed
It’s the same simplistic version of “economic analysis” one expects from those completely unfamiliar with international trade rules. Or the different levels of government intrusion in the marketplace between the various government models. Waiving VAT taxes for China’s Xi on their exports is done easily. Here? Bill is entitled to his political bias but not at the expense of his objective analysis. I expect more.
Australia has a 10% gst but the 10% does not apply to goods sold overseas.
The 10% is just paid by us suckers that live here.
With regard to protecting domestic markets, there are many ways to levy fees or erect barriers beyond imposing tariffs. Wondering when media will begin to talk about these?
Below Ed makes some excellent points. My take is I think at times ole BBB makes some points, then he peppers in his hatred for Trump causing me to doubt his initial analysis. That, and the fact that so far, these tariffs have had minimal impact on consumers, and finally as Ed point out, other countries may not call them tariffs but they do have VAT, essentially the same thing. Ole BBB never has anything to say about these democratic/socialist politicians charging essentially Americans the same bullshit.
Consequently, it just ends creditability to his own socialist/ democrat views.
It makes sense, Now that he has secured his millions, has purchased property all over the world and lives comfortably as perhaps the top .01%, what else is there for the old geezer but to pursue an area that he avoid during his money making days. BB has truly become creepy with his Machiavellian analysis.
As much as it will be disturbing to most of America a slow down of the economy might be a good idea. Housing, and all costs associated with it, have gone parabolic in my area of the east coast. Houses I speculated on 10 years go for $2000-$60,000 now sell for $85,000 to $200,000. Mind you these homes received very basic upgrades. So insane is the market I started selling into this bubble. Glad I did, because the availability of qualified tenants to cover the new financing is very limited. Low income tenants were then the working poor labor. Today these homes are occupied by blue and white collar owners straining under consumer debt, with little or no equity.
The solution to high prices, is high prices, followed by foreclosure, bankruptcy, and discharging of debt. Sadly, American's never learn. When money is cheap handed out like water, it's time to invest, take profits and pay off debt. The opposite is witnessed as American's drive up the price of real estate, and consumer debt then go down with the ship at the end of each cycle.
Proof of my thesis, just a few years ago gold was dirt cheap. I bought some, and suggested friends do the same. I was met with a stare and open mouth. Why would you buy gold when everything is going up but gold? One of these friends just walked away from a rental house purchased with a down payment of $20k inheritance. He then mortgaged it beyond any tenant's rent to cover the monthly holding costs.
I'm not one to gloat, his $20k down payment and smoke and mirrors equity is gone. $20k saved in gold at $476 or 42 ounces for an Eagle at todays $3700 per coin is over $155k today. Gold wasn't going down in the $400 range if it had, I'd have bought more.
My advice to anyone in a similar situation, mortgage heck or sell and buy gold even at these current valuations, cause the dollar isn't on any path to going up in value.
Housing/real estate is only going "parabolic" in areas where there is demand. Governments in these high-demand, parabolic environments are encouraging the trend, because it resets assessed values and income from property taxes fill the coffers for more government. The banks are in cahoots as well. In my rural situation, real estate is dead in the water and has been since 2008. The key to real estate sales and prices are move-ins. Move-ins come where there is general economic activity, and people have income. Where I live, welfare IS the economy, and therefore, there is no economy. Best always. PM
My parabolic area is Philadelphia, where 90% of housing units are rental multi family. The market is driven by NY investors following their previous tenants fleeing a costly crime ridden, and over crowded rental area to a seeming bargain destination. Moving to spacious amenity filled new construction with plentiful parking. Philadelphia has its crime areas but for the most part there is no fear of harm during the day and in most areas at night. The near suburbs have boomed as young couples with children seek good schools, private yards, and near zero crime.
If not for my wife and our grandchildren I'd be living in Virginia or Southwestern PA near a Holler on 100 acres in an older home bought for cash. I found such a property 97 acres with a stream which included mineral and logging rights with a house and dilapidated barn for $120k. The place would be a bolt hole, but the wife is not having it.
Don't worry the cure to low prices is low prices. Which come with low taxes and more freedom.
Dennis, my wife and I have just built a house in the mountains of West Virginia. It was completed last year. The tax bill for the year is $255. Bolthole. This house is big enough To hold all the people In my crew if needed.
I think you're early and that is a good thing. I'd love to do the same but my wife would not be onboard. She'd look at the money spent as a missed opportunity to go on a Viking Cruise or a European vacation.
Thank you for your response and analysis. Having lived in Baltimore in 1974-76, I saw early on what the future of America would be. I moved to my current location from a decaying metro area in 1990. Been here ever since. Move-ins with money or who can qualify for money drive real estate. I'm paid off and set up for The Big Loss coming to the country soon. All the Dems have to sell is welfare, crime, drugs, and 3rd-world invasion (i.e. crime). Good luck to your and yours. Best always. PM
😂😂
If you have a fixed supply lets say, a million dollars, in the aggregate regardles of demand supply fundmentals in the real economy on net you have no inflation. Prices change relative to the money stock in circulation. Technically speaking. Taking it further if there's a 10% loss in goods due to business closures on net, you have no inflation, given there's no increase in the supply of the money stock in aggregate. And that there, is the dirty little secret of the statists.
So, if tariffs currently average 15% and the trade weighted $ is down approximately 10% year to date, then average imports cost 25% more. I wonder what happens to demand?
The U.S. exposure to imports is half the global average.
Tariff's impact other nations more.
In 2023, imports accounted for approximately 14% of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
The global average import percentage of GDP is approximately 29% as of 2023.
Well, Angry I just read a part of the report By Stephen Miran . You know the man that MR. T. wants in at the fed. His reset includes a thing that , well not a thing , but 3 things that stand out to Me #1 is-security zones. #2 is funded by century bonds, not short term bills. # 3-unless You swap Your bills for bonds , tariffs will keep You out. So those that want to trade with the USA will buy all the debt that US has and pay off the deficit. Not a bad way for the US , but a bad way for the rest of traders who want to deal with the US. These traders will pay off the debt! Now I may be a bit off on My conclusion. I am sure that someone with More knowledge will in form Me.
From my read the strategy would be at best feckless.
The revenue from the tariffs won't even pay the interest.
No doubt it would encounter legal issues from all sides...
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But I do like Mr. Miran's thinking about taxes:
Taking effective tariff rates from 2% to 20% seems way better than taking marginal income tax rates from 30% even higher."
He added, "Better to take tariffs from low levels higher, than corporate or income from already-high to even-higher."
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Wouldn't it be great if Miran said "spending is the problem"....
but then he would likely not be promoted to Fed Chair.
Always a catch !
Meh - seems like a pretty good deal for the US. Is it fair, ask the leftarde Pearl Clutchers?
Who cares?? How "fair" were the multi-decade trade DECFICITS previous "leaders" saddled the American Economy with?
So, yeah. MEH, again - and cry harder for every Country on the globe except your own, ignorant haters.....
Thanks for Your opinion!
Angry icebergs, I don’t get your point. Other nations aren’t raising tariffs on each other. So those that export to the US will suffer (lower demand or substitution or both). But that was not my point. The US consumer suffers, the US consumer pays the price (tariffs plus a weaker dollar). You want a Porsche? You’ll buy a Mustang instead? Look at history tariffs will cause global contraction… is that good for anyone?
Capex, deregulation, reduced taxation, onshoring, tariff revenue
vs
unemployment, inflation, tariff increases and deficit spending.
Not so sure doom and gloom is absolute.
Your move...
That must be one heck of a tall iceberg. You see very clearly from atop it.
Unfortunately, Bill and those like him pine away for results that reflect your second list. So a VERY valid question would be: Do they cheer for the worst outcomes to affect America because they hate the Country or because the alternative would give Trump and his Policies success and vindication?
Based on their own words and actions, either answer proves what kind of people they really are, deep down inside......
Trump is covfefe for America.
Since most have no idea what that word was supposed to mean.
I think it is quite the perfect analogous definition.
Totally different subject!
https://x.com/zeee_media/status/1963760022032351681?s=01
Are they actually trying to slowdown on mRNA vaccines or are they just shuffling money around or coming up with something worse?
https://rumble.com/v6y65cg-more-funding-for-bill-gates-ft.-dr.-henry-ealy-daily-pulse-ep-97.html
Kennedy told us mRNA vaccines are obviously not properly suited for Covid protection; however the mRNA shows promise targeting other diseases.
Then you should be all set if you want to take one that appeals to you!
...if I have a terminal disease, I would seriously consider it.
Wouldn't you?
Very unlikely!
I’m familiar with Robert Kennedy Jr. I’ve been a member of CHD for a number of years. I’ve been to a CHD conference in Savannah a couple of years ago! I own and have read some of Bobby’s books, and Bobby is not saying the same things he said in the past! I know he’s under pressure from the Senate and probably from the Big Man himself! He is clearly not the only person I am listening to regarding mRNA vaccines!
I’m not here to dissuade anybody from any notions that they have! I just try to put information out there if someone chooses to view it! If you feel confident about any particular subject, then I am sure you will do as you see fit and I wish you well!
I hear and, oddly, agree with both of you (not that it matters.)
I think mRNA Vaxxes could be a major step forward for Humanity - but we are a LONG way from having done the Research and Collected/Analyzed/Tested/Verified enough data to allow the technology a carte blanche run throughout our Health Care system - much less have anything like a Mandate attached to them.....
PS - I'm pissed because I have seen where Pet Vaccines will all be mRNA based stating in 2026. It's way too early for that. I guess I'll have to do all I can to keep Tippers Marie and Penny Raine thriving without them....
Polio was ravaging this country for the first 50 years of the 20th century. There was a public urgency in this country to find a vaccine. Despite the urgency, the Salk vaccine, which showed great promise, went through a 10-year vetting process, before it was released to public en masse. We failed in this regard (vetting) utterly with the Covid panic and paid the price. Politics above all. Best always. PM
Brother SE, if we are going mRNA in the veterinary field, it is, indeed, a sad day for me. I can opt of vaccines, but, unfortunately, if I want the cooperation of my vet, I have to keep the pets up on their shots. I think I hear Jim Reeves: "Four walls closing in on me..." Thanks for this information. Best always. PM
No
My wife of 59 years died after taking that crap. Scans showed blood clots in her lungs. I dare some asshole to attempt to inject me with that crap. You bet I am an angry old man with all my teeth. If you love your spouse take heed; if you want to get rid of them fire away.
Bob, I'm so sorry for your loss. My crew and I knew by June 2020 it was all a scam! So sorry, my friend.
Obviously "the jab" affects folks differently.
Some swear by it, others swear at it.
Sadly, many were forced or coerced to oblige Pfizer/Moderna.
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The real extent of damage?
Staple institutions lost credibility.
We can no longer cipher altruism from propagation.