This was the most important turning point in recent financial history. Forty years of falling interest rates...and the biggest boom in stock market history...were over.
How's any of this Trump's fault? And the military adventurism is anything but reckless. It's precise and well-contained, and over quickly. Best always. PM
The cure for a hangover is…. drink more beer. The cure for a credit hangover is… more credit. The Administration is fixing a grease fire with bacon. Rates too high? Buy two hundred billion in mortgage bonds!
That’s exactly what a degenerate gambler does, “double or nothing” the housing market. America already did this dance.
Cheap money makes houses unaffordable, then people act surprised when they owe more house than they own. Congratulations, the President invented affordability by making everything cost more and calling it help.
Two bubbles already blew up, and the plan is to blow a third one with a leaf blower. The first time wrecked Wall Street, the second time wrecked Main Street, and now he’s aiming straight for the renters too. Rates drop, stocks pop, real estate bros high-five, and normal people just get a new monthly payment that eats their soul. This is Financial gaslighting, but they’ll say “See, we helped, now why can’t you afford it?”
When your last two experiments exploded and your answer is still “let’s do it bigger,” that sounds less like economics and more like a guy who keeps microwaving forks to see if this time it won’t spark. Anyway, thanks for making houses so affordable that only a family of 10 can move in!
The first bubble was the early-2000s housing boom where banks gave out subprime mortgages like Halloween candy, prices went crazy, and in 2008 it all collapsed, taking Lehman Brothers, a few trillion dollars, and a lot of people’s furniture with it.
The second bubble started right after that, when rates were pushed near zero from 2008 to about 2021, houses doubled in price, everyone said “this time it’s different,” and then around 2022 rates went up, sales fell off a cliff, prices stalled or dropped in a lot of places, and people quietly realized the sequel wasn’t any smarter than the original.
Anyway, that’s the two bubbles. Same plot, different decade, worse haircuts.
The hangover isn’t one guy’s fault, I didn’t say Trump solely caused the first two bubbles, that’d be like blaming the bartender for Prohibition. I’m just saying Trump’s showing up to the 3rd party where the floor is already cracked and saying, “Good news, I brought more shots and drinks boys and gals.” This is what happens when the Administration keeps calling it “a lifestyle choice,” and then act shocked when it pops. Drinking differently sounds nice, but history suggests we mostly just change the glass, not the habit, and then argue about whose turn it is to puke.
Roland Friestad - I thought housing prices are abnormally high because large corporations bought mortgages when interest was low and aren't selling them except at higher prices. Am I wrong ?
Business Insider says that large investors own 2-3% of the single-family rental housing stock in the country, but much higher percentages (up to 22%) in certain markets, especially in the Sun Belt.
I expect many of those houses would be rental units rather than owner-occupied whether or not they were owned by large corporations. It seems unlikely that corporate ownership is a major factor in the high housing prices in most of the country.
The Fed’s independence means it is a private, nongovernmental entity with no governmental checks on its activities but great power over US economic activity (for its own benefit and purposes, whatever these are). We the People are greatly affected every day by its activities with no control over it. Its accountability is only internal with its member banks. With the US’s massive and increasing debt (especially to the Fed itself), how collateralized are the country’s resources and We the People to the Fed, and could it someday actually physically own the USA?
What do "we the people" have control over? Watching America coming apart at the seams, those in Washington that give one hoot about any of us peons are few and far apart. The Collapse is just ahead..........
Yes the collapse is ahead. But when , nobody knows. These things take time and as usual everybody expects it today or tomorrow. It may not come for a few more decades of time. You and I do not know this timing . Prepare and adjust accordingly!
A couple decades.............hmmmm...........hard to imagine. And, we both know "we don't know" and are pretty sure no one does. But there are signs and I would suggest numerous "black swans" circling. Unfortunately, America gave away its manufacturing base and now makes little anyone needs. It appears the World is turning away from financial leverage through tariffs, sanctions, and limits to systems embracing economic leverage with supply chains/payments systems that are not used as weapons but tools to foster prosperity - and in that regard it isn't a wild view that the West (that be EU, UK, and US) absolutely will do anything to keep the dying empire kickin'. And, on the military front (other than nuclear weapons) the West (U.S. and EU) don't have the resources to fight more than a few weeks of war. No military resources (hardware, ammunition, bombs, etc) to sustain a fighting force. Let's all hope it doesn't turn into more and more military conflicts. This ol' man doesn't see that as a positive for the good ol' USofA. As always, one ol' man's mutterings.
Perhaps we can just use directed energy weapons, microwave weapons, or E bombs or whatever allegedly took place in Venezuela, according to members of the security team! They’ve warned everybody not to mess with the US, so perhaps just worrying over the possibility will be enough for us to deter other countries from fighting back, allowing us to continue our hegemonic pursuits, for a variety of reasons!
Everybody always blames the Fed, but Congress is the one that determines the budget and I can guess that they really don’t represent their constituents! They stopped that a long time ago!
Yes - it is becoming rarer and rarer. Listening to others - even if their opinions differ - is a great way to ponder one's views. Mark Twain once said - "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." Thank you for your graciousness.
Like the kinfolk of ol' Jed Clampett who told "Jed move away from there
Said California is the place you oughta' be So they loaded up the truck and they moved to Beverly (Hills, that is. Swimmin' pools, movie stars)" that was then and, well, now is now. There is zero chance anyone other than a liberal democrat will be elected in California. And, I would have to agree with you Angry, California appears is in for a sh*tstorm. And, people and corporation are choosing other places. The road ahead for the U.S. and us peons is going to be bumpy to put it mildly. Let's all hope we can do as Don suggested above - "Prepare and adjust accordingly!" Going to be epic.
Powell quote: ‘The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.’
NOT... you lied to the Senate Banking Commitee ( still allegedly), but you should resign and maybe the DOJ will lighten your sentence.
I’m sure there are many reasons for the dilemma we are in. Much to the accumulation of bad policies by most previous administrations. We have too many politicians that don’t give a dam about their constituents. We have thousands of pages of regulations which make everything more expensive and difficult to accomplish. If the free market was allowed to flourish, we would be in a much better place. Prices would be based on supply and demand. The government has been changed to nothing that the bill of rights and Declaration of Independence was originally written. The government should be there to protect citizens and property rights. No money printing is crucial. We should have a full functioning executive branch, , judicial branch and legislative branch so not one of these go off the road. Just dreaming I guess.
Housing cost has very little to do with interest rates. I've built the houses with a fourteen percent interest rate. I have paid cash to build houses. The biggest problem is I see it is the regulation. Drive through any neighborhood built in a forties , fifties and even sixties. Many have no curbs, drainage ditches that drain into a sore line. Some have street lights most that do space in it.At least fifty 21 hundred yards. Many have no sidewalks. Why should they they as there is no traffic. Think about all the restrictions on bathrooms alone. Where I grew I was 1 of 11 counting mom and dad. One bathroom and 3 bedrooms there were no exhaust fans. Crack the door! Bunk beds were very cool. The kitchen cabinets were made of painted steel. Oh my! Clutch my pearls!
One car garage. We had one car. Change our oil. Changed to our tires.
All of the above are Ilegal under most current residential codes.
As to military spending, we've got China hell bent on dominating us. We can cut back on defense, but they won't. We may have a technology and command advantage, but they have numbers. Remember our Sherman tank was no match for the German panzers, but we had a lot more tanks than they did. And command structure, the Nazis were infinitely better at that than the Russians, yet Russia had the numbers. If we cut our military too much, I'm afraid the Chinese will get us long before the deficit will.
BB’s article today would have been a substantial change focusing on financials except he has to bring it in as Trumps fault. For a person so smart it's a dumbed down article because of his hatred.
Yet, still, no offer of an alternate solution.
Just pure bitching and moaning. “Dad are we there yet”?, every ten minutes. Good follow up comments, as always by Dan lending creditability to Billy’s Bitchin. Why not change the name from BPR to Billy’s Bitchin!
How's any of this Trump's fault? And the military adventurism is anything but reckless. It's precise and well-contained, and over quickly. Best always. PM
Speaking logic to someone suffering from TDS is wasted breath.
The cure for a hangover is…. drink more beer. The cure for a credit hangover is… more credit. The Administration is fixing a grease fire with bacon. Rates too high? Buy two hundred billion in mortgage bonds!
That’s exactly what a degenerate gambler does, “double or nothing” the housing market. America already did this dance.
Cheap money makes houses unaffordable, then people act surprised when they owe more house than they own. Congratulations, the President invented affordability by making everything cost more and calling it help.
Two bubbles already blew up, and the plan is to blow a third one with a leaf blower. The first time wrecked Wall Street, the second time wrecked Main Street, and now he’s aiming straight for the renters too. Rates drop, stocks pop, real estate bros high-five, and normal people just get a new monthly payment that eats their soul. This is Financial gaslighting, but they’ll say “See, we helped, now why can’t you afford it?”
When your last two experiments exploded and your answer is still “let’s do it bigger,” that sounds less like economics and more like a guy who keeps microwaving forks to see if this time it won’t spark. Anyway, thanks for making houses so affordable that only a family of 10 can move in!
...what are the 2 burst bubbles you speak of?
The first bubble was the early-2000s housing boom where banks gave out subprime mortgages like Halloween candy, prices went crazy, and in 2008 it all collapsed, taking Lehman Brothers, a few trillion dollars, and a lot of people’s furniture with it.
The second bubble started right after that, when rates were pushed near zero from 2008 to about 2021, houses doubled in price, everyone said “this time it’s different,” and then around 2022 rates went up, sales fell off a cliff, prices stalled or dropped in a lot of places, and people quietly realized the sequel wasn’t any smarter than the original.
Anyway, that’s the two bubbles. Same plot, different decade, worse haircuts.
...for some reason your "congratulations" sounds as if though Trump is to blame for the first bubbles....
Seems the affordability problem is not entirely Trump's fault either...
-
Drinking more only leaves the hang over for tomorrow.
The only way I know to cure a hangover is not to get one in the first place.
-
One need not stop drinking.
However, one needs to drink differently...
The hangover isn’t one guy’s fault, I didn’t say Trump solely caused the first two bubbles, that’d be like blaming the bartender for Prohibition. I’m just saying Trump’s showing up to the 3rd party where the floor is already cracked and saying, “Good news, I brought more shots and drinks boys and gals.” This is what happens when the Administration keeps calling it “a lifestyle choice,” and then act shocked when it pops. Drinking differently sounds nice, but history suggests we mostly just change the glass, not the habit, and then argue about whose turn it is to puke.
Roland Friestad - I thought housing prices are abnormally high because large corporations bought mortgages when interest was low and aren't selling them except at higher prices. Am I wrong ?
Business Insider says that large investors own 2-3% of the single-family rental housing stock in the country, but much higher percentages (up to 22%) in certain markets, especially in the Sun Belt.
https://www.businessinsider.com/institutional-investors-single-family-homes-cities-map-2026-1
I expect many of those houses would be rental units rather than owner-occupied whether or not they were owned by large corporations. It seems unlikely that corporate ownership is a major factor in the high housing prices in most of the country.
Housing unaffordability is a feature, not a bug. "They" have a dream - we all live in a rented cubicle apartment inside a 15 minute city.
The Fed’s independence means it is a private, nongovernmental entity with no governmental checks on its activities but great power over US economic activity (for its own benefit and purposes, whatever these are). We the People are greatly affected every day by its activities with no control over it. Its accountability is only internal with its member banks. With the US’s massive and increasing debt (especially to the Fed itself), how collateralized are the country’s resources and We the People to the Fed, and could it someday actually physically own the USA?
What do "we the people" have control over? Watching America coming apart at the seams, those in Washington that give one hoot about any of us peons are few and far apart. The Collapse is just ahead..........
Yes the collapse is ahead. But when , nobody knows. These things take time and as usual everybody expects it today or tomorrow. It may not come for a few more decades of time. You and I do not know this timing . Prepare and adjust accordingly!
A couple decades.............hmmmm...........hard to imagine. And, we both know "we don't know" and are pretty sure no one does. But there are signs and I would suggest numerous "black swans" circling. Unfortunately, America gave away its manufacturing base and now makes little anyone needs. It appears the World is turning away from financial leverage through tariffs, sanctions, and limits to systems embracing economic leverage with supply chains/payments systems that are not used as weapons but tools to foster prosperity - and in that regard it isn't a wild view that the West (that be EU, UK, and US) absolutely will do anything to keep the dying empire kickin'. And, on the military front (other than nuclear weapons) the West (U.S. and EU) don't have the resources to fight more than a few weeks of war. No military resources (hardware, ammunition, bombs, etc) to sustain a fighting force. Let's all hope it doesn't turn into more and more military conflicts. This ol' man doesn't see that as a positive for the good ol' USofA. As always, one ol' man's mutterings.
Perhaps we can just use directed energy weapons, microwave weapons, or E bombs or whatever allegedly took place in Venezuela, according to members of the security team! They’ve warned everybody not to mess with the US, so perhaps just worrying over the possibility will be enough for us to deter other countries from fighting back, allowing us to continue our hegemonic pursuits, for a variety of reasons!
Everybody always blames the Fed, but Congress is the one that determines the budget and I can guess that they really don’t represent their constituents! They stopped that a long time ago!
Glad We can still voice Our opinions. Thanks for Yours .
Yes - it is becoming rarer and rarer. Listening to others - even if their opinions differ - is a great way to ponder one's views. Mark Twain once said - "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." Thank you for your graciousness.
...according to Phil Anderson (The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking) the land value collapse is just under 2 years away.
-
One possible scenario:
Should California elect Katy Porter (or any left-sided liberal)...
It is a certainty they will attempt eliminating prop 13.
California's property taxes will be substantially increased.
This will inevitably crash California's real estate market.
Likely affecting the whole nation...
Like the kinfolk of ol' Jed Clampett who told "Jed move away from there
Said California is the place you oughta' be So they loaded up the truck and they moved to Beverly (Hills, that is. Swimmin' pools, movie stars)" that was then and, well, now is now. There is zero chance anyone other than a liberal democrat will be elected in California. And, I would have to agree with you Angry, California appears is in for a sh*tstorm. And, people and corporation are choosing other places. The road ahead for the U.S. and us peons is going to be bumpy to put it mildly. Let's all hope we can do as Don suggested above - "Prepare and adjust accordingly!" Going to be epic.
Yep, the signs are definitely there.
The illegal fed serves the banks, not the public.
Powell quote: ‘The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.’
NOT... you lied to the Senate Banking Commitee ( still allegedly), but you should resign and maybe the DOJ will lighten your sentence.
I’m sure there are many reasons for the dilemma we are in. Much to the accumulation of bad policies by most previous administrations. We have too many politicians that don’t give a dam about their constituents. We have thousands of pages of regulations which make everything more expensive and difficult to accomplish. If the free market was allowed to flourish, we would be in a much better place. Prices would be based on supply and demand. The government has been changed to nothing that the bill of rights and Declaration of Independence was originally written. The government should be there to protect citizens and property rights. No money printing is crucial. We should have a full functioning executive branch, , judicial branch and legislative branch so not one of these go off the road. Just dreaming I guess.
Housing cost has very little to do with interest rates. I've built the houses with a fourteen percent interest rate. I have paid cash to build houses. The biggest problem is I see it is the regulation. Drive through any neighborhood built in a forties , fifties and even sixties. Many have no curbs, drainage ditches that drain into a sore line. Some have street lights most that do space in it.At least fifty 21 hundred yards. Many have no sidewalks. Why should they they as there is no traffic. Think about all the restrictions on bathrooms alone. Where I grew I was 1 of 11 counting mom and dad. One bathroom and 3 bedrooms there were no exhaust fans. Crack the door! Bunk beds were very cool. The kitchen cabinets were made of painted steel. Oh my! Clutch my pearls!
One car garage. We had one car. Change our oil. Changed to our tires.
All of the above are Ilegal under most current residential codes.
No state shall coin money, emit bills of credit, or make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender in payments of debts. ~ Art.I, Sec.10, cl.1.
If only we would have stayed true to the Constitution.
As to military spending, we've got China hell bent on dominating us. We can cut back on defense, but they won't. We may have a technology and command advantage, but they have numbers. Remember our Sherman tank was no match for the German panzers, but we had a lot more tanks than they did. And command structure, the Nazis were infinitely better at that than the Russians, yet Russia had the numbers. If we cut our military too much, I'm afraid the Chinese will get us long before the deficit will.
BB’s article today would have been a substantial change focusing on financials except he has to bring it in as Trumps fault. For a person so smart it's a dumbed down article because of his hatred.
Yet, still, no offer of an alternate solution.
Just pure bitching and moaning. “Dad are we there yet”?, every ten minutes. Good follow up comments, as always by Dan lending creditability to Billy’s Bitchin. Why not change the name from BPR to Billy’s Bitchin!