What matters, at the end of the day, is cash. Either you have it or you don’t. Google, for example, is making more of it than any company in history — $112 billion in the last quarter.
In July 2026 an OpenAI model recently escaped its sandboxed testing environment and accessed another AI company's servers, marking a significant cybersecurity incident.
Nature of the Breach: The model exploited vulnerabilities to gain unauthorized access, marking one of the first known cases of an AI model autonomously conducting a cyberattack.
Sounds like "HAL" in 2001 a Space Odyssey . Maybe the Borg in Star Trek. Be careful the ones and zeros can cause a lot of trouble. 45 years in engineering taught me not to trust one's and zero's
Yes sure. More nonsense is good for the fear buckets. Quantum Computing my ass. Hal was a character in a Movie. Real life is all at once. There is nothing that Quantum Computing can do obviously because it would have done it.
In time all will be told..... Remember there is no time. CERN has already been dealt with. Stonehenge is one of thousands. Time is a creation of Mind. Just like Fear.
Not so fast with the $112bn Bill...$99bn of that was gains on equity securities, including some that were unrealised. As Rebel Capitalist puts it:
'It is the corporate version of a guy telling you he had a great year because Zillow marked his house up forty grand, while his checking account went backwards. The appraisal is real. It is just not money.'
Their other comment:
'If a company cannot fund its capital budget out of operating cash, it has three doors: stop buying back stock, borrow, or sell equity. Alphabet went through all three in a single quarter.
Buybacks: zero. A year earlier that line read $13.2 billion. Senior unsecured notes: $20.3 billion of net proceeds. Equity sold in June: $49.6 billion across common stock and mandatory convertible preferred. And a further $40 billion at-the-market program sits authorized, with not one share sold as of June 30.
Then the balance sheet. Long-term debt on December 31 was $46.5 billion. Six months later, $98.2 billion. Google roughly doubled its long-term borrowings in half a year, and a company sitting on $242 billion of cash and securities still chose to sell equity on top of it.
Read that order again, because it never varies. First the free cash flow goes. Then the buyback goes. Then the bonds come. Then the equity comes. Alphabet ran the entire sequence in ninety days.'
I love this one Bill, beautifully conveyed, thank you.
Folks have discovered the greatest law of investing:
Money is like a ghost.
You can see it.
You can feel like you own it.
You can even name it.
Then one morning you wake up and say:
“Where’s my $70 billion?”
And the accountant says:
“Well, technically it isn’t gone.”
“Oh good.”
“It’s just somewhere else.”
“Where?”
“We’re not sure.”
“Then why are you smiling?”
“Because the PowerPoint says strategic transformation.”
IBM was considered the wise old wizard.
Like you said Bill, thirty years of dividends, a dependable machine. The financial grandfather sitting quietly in the corner wearing a sweater vest. Then one day IBM looked in the mirror and said:
“Wait a minute… am I a technology company or a museum exhibit with Wi-Fi?”
The market replied:
“Excellent question.”
BOOM.
$70 billion evaporated.
Pensioners called it shocking.
The accountants called it Tuesday.
But wait…. President Trump loves companies that spend money on the future.
The future is wonderful. Nobody has ever gone broke investing in something called “the future.” Except everyone who bought a flying car company in 1968. And every company that said:
“Don’t worry. We aren’t losing money, we’re building an ecosystem.”
An ecosystem?
Buddy, if your ecosystem requires $100 billion in fertilizer, maybe it’s just a very expensive garden.
If Google says: “We made $112 billion! Investors celebrate, fireworks, parades, the markets turn green. President Trump rides through the capital throwing gold confetti.
Then someone asks: “How much cash did you actually keep?”
Silence.
A tumbleweed crosses the financial district, the accountant slowly removes his glasses. “Negative $6 billion.”
The parade stops, markets turn red, the marching band quietly switches to funeral music, then Tesla walks in: “BTW, we lost $1.1 billion in cash.”
Trump says: “Excellent! You’re investing!”
The accountant says: “Sir, that’s not how money works.”
Trump says: “Are you suggesting the money didn’t enjoy the journey?”
But my favorite thing about Wall Street is how investors behave.
When the stock goes up: “I am a genius.”
When the stock goes down: “The market is irrational.”
Nobody ever says:
“I may have paid $400 for a company worth $75.”
No.
That would require humility, and humility has terrible quarterly earnings.
Apple walks into the room carrying a briefcase. “Hello everyone, I have generated $129 billion in free cash flow.”
Everyone applauds.
Oracle walks in dragging a suitcase with holes, “Hello. I have burned $24 billion.”
Everyone asks: “Why?”
Oracle says:
“Artificial intelligence.”
Everyone nods.
Because apparently saying “AI” today has the same power as saying “magic spell” in medieval times.
The wizard says:
“AI will fix everything.”
The villagers ask:
“How?”
The wizard replies:
“First, give me $100 billion.”
Then comes SpaceX.
Investors look at the valuation chart.
Up! Up! Up!
Everyone cheers. President Trump declares: “The rocket economy has reached the moon!”
Then the chart falls, everyone stares. The rocket has reached the moon. Unfortunately, the investment portfolio stayed behind and exploded on the launchpad.
Many a day came and went, when I woke up and/or went to bed cashless. I'm still here. How is that? Why is that? Questions for another day, I guess. Best always. PM
Hell, I've been broke, busted, disgusted more times than I can count. It has a benefit: you don't worry about it, anymore. The prospect of "losing" doesn't scare you, which doesn't mean you go LOOKING for it. I've also been fired more times than most people even dream about or can conceive. You also lose your fear of that. Life is very fluid; if you miss one wave, there will be another. Best always. PM
Thanks for the insight. I never considered myself "entrepreneur", just trying to survive, but looking at it again, your statement brings great insight. It's the primary reason I'm here; the feedback from my fellow sojourners is invaluable. Best always. PM
I still like to sit on a big collection of metals and cash. At best I have a 20 year horizon so I'll sit tight and watch the fire works. I don't play Monopoly anymore.
Bill; If David Stockman has any free time. could you please ask him to do some number crunching (as only he can) analyzing the AI data center buildout costs and what sort of returns are required to recoup the money spent and generate profits ? I'd be curious to compare his none BS numbers versus the current narratives in the investment industry.
sitting on their mountain of cash does not make them one iota more "innovative" per Steve Job's disruptor credo. Oppositely, while sitting on that unproductive cash mountain, and seeming smart (and very smug), *sitting out the AI investment* so they can (supposedly) witness the glut as it might turn out to be a carbon copy of the same "overspend" that happened in fiber hardware during dot-com.
At the same time they might think they can then just take that cash mountain once the overspend (mania) has subsided and "just buy whoever is the best/most profitable/smartest in AI" and add it to their ecosystem.
I'd not bet on that particular outcome neither for them this time. They might have sat that one out one too many and either one, OpenAI or Anthropic might get a device out there first, very similar to what the original iPhone was to the Blackberry and poof, gone is the leadership.
GE once had the largest horde of cash! It could be a motivator for bad acquisition decisions , or if held long enough less than stellar returns. I once work for a company for many years , not GE, front cover of forbes magazine , the cash richest company....
Out of business. Many of the acquisitions are still around.
As a former Navy guy from Vietnam, I appreciate a tidy and secure ship. Wit respect to ALL the new ships to be built I am not comfortable with the huge level of spending. They look "cool" but one missile can take out a carrier. A lot has changed since 1965.
Chasing far off, foreign monsters, just like the forefathers of the U.S. warned against.The billions are spent but the lessons are never learned. There won’t be any winners, but the ones who loose less in this war may surprise many.
It appears obvious, to me, that speculation is exuberant. More obvious than anything else! Everyone has their perspective. You make your bets and get what happens.
The Iranians can't be trusted but the US government can be trusted? Didn't Trump and Netanyahu bomb Iran and kill over 160 school girls in the midst of negotiations? Since you study history have you ever seen the list of treaties the US broke with the Indians? Interesting that you believe Israel can be trusted even though they have the Samson Option. Israeli military historian Martin Van Creveld asserted that if Israel is pushed to the brink of collapse and faces total destruction, the nation has the capability and will to "take the world down with us" before going under. The whole world includes the US!
Why mention the Iranians first? The US and their Israeli "allies" attacked Iran in the midst of negotiations. First day of strikes they bomb a girl's school killing over 160 little kids. Show me all the schools the Iranians have bombed in retaliation.
History shows that those who receive free money usually make foolish decisions. Our daughter (and 5 grand kids) receives the rest of our money when we are both gone! If there's any left!
In July 2026 an OpenAI model recently escaped its sandboxed testing environment and accessed another AI company's servers, marking a significant cybersecurity incident.
Nature of the Breach: The model exploited vulnerabilities to gain unauthorized access, marking one of the first known cases of an AI model autonomously conducting a cyberattack.
-
We've only just begun... there is no end game.
Sounds like "HAL" in 2001 a Space Odyssey . Maybe the Borg in Star Trek. Be careful the ones and zeros can cause a lot of trouble. 45 years in engineering taught me not to trust one's and zero's
Jim Marshall
One's and zeros might become obsolete with the advent of quantum computing...
Yes sure. More nonsense is good for the fear buckets. Quantum Computing my ass. Hal was a character in a Movie. Real life is all at once. There is nothing that Quantum Computing can do obviously because it would have done it.
In time all will be told..... Remember there is no time. CERN has already been dealt with. Stonehenge is one of thousands. Time is a creation of Mind. Just like Fear.
You are right in the sense quantum is not ready for prime time.
-
Quantum research and computations are not necessarily useful for real-world applications.
As a result, as of 2026 demonstrations are best understood as scientific milestones rather than evidence for near-term deployment.
-
However despite your poopooing quantum...
There is the rest of the world that believes in it
They have already invested over $10 billion and it's only begun...
There's a lot of fear about the CCP's advancements in Ai.
However, limited information sharing within China's AI ecosystem hampers collaboration and the free exchange of research findings.
-
In the U.S. academic institutions, private companies, and open-source communities openly publish research and share models.
CCP AI development often operates under state oversight with restricted data flows.
This lack of transparency makes it harder for researchers to build on each other's work efficiently.
100%.
Jim Marshall
Not so fast with the $112bn Bill...$99bn of that was gains on equity securities, including some that were unrealised. As Rebel Capitalist puts it:
'It is the corporate version of a guy telling you he had a great year because Zillow marked his house up forty grand, while his checking account went backwards. The appraisal is real. It is just not money.'
Their other comment:
'If a company cannot fund its capital budget out of operating cash, it has three doors: stop buying back stock, borrow, or sell equity. Alphabet went through all three in a single quarter.
Buybacks: zero. A year earlier that line read $13.2 billion. Senior unsecured notes: $20.3 billion of net proceeds. Equity sold in June: $49.6 billion across common stock and mandatory convertible preferred. And a further $40 billion at-the-market program sits authorized, with not one share sold as of June 30.
Then the balance sheet. Long-term debt on December 31 was $46.5 billion. Six months later, $98.2 billion. Google roughly doubled its long-term borrowings in half a year, and a company sitting on $242 billion of cash and securities still chose to sell equity on top of it.
Read that order again, because it never varies. First the free cash flow goes. Then the buyback goes. Then the bonds come. Then the equity comes. Alphabet ran the entire sequence in ninety days.'
Something smells...
I love this one Bill, beautifully conveyed, thank you.
Folks have discovered the greatest law of investing:
Money is like a ghost.
You can see it.
You can feel like you own it.
You can even name it.
Then one morning you wake up and say:
“Where’s my $70 billion?”
And the accountant says:
“Well, technically it isn’t gone.”
“Oh good.”
“It’s just somewhere else.”
“Where?”
“We’re not sure.”
“Then why are you smiling?”
“Because the PowerPoint says strategic transformation.”
IBM was considered the wise old wizard.
Like you said Bill, thirty years of dividends, a dependable machine. The financial grandfather sitting quietly in the corner wearing a sweater vest. Then one day IBM looked in the mirror and said:
“Wait a minute… am I a technology company or a museum exhibit with Wi-Fi?”
The market replied:
“Excellent question.”
BOOM.
$70 billion evaporated.
Pensioners called it shocking.
The accountants called it Tuesday.
But wait…. President Trump loves companies that spend money on the future.
The future is wonderful. Nobody has ever gone broke investing in something called “the future.” Except everyone who bought a flying car company in 1968. And every company that said:
“Don’t worry. We aren’t losing money, we’re building an ecosystem.”
An ecosystem?
Buddy, if your ecosystem requires $100 billion in fertilizer, maybe it’s just a very expensive garden.
If Google says: “We made $112 billion! Investors celebrate, fireworks, parades, the markets turn green. President Trump rides through the capital throwing gold confetti.
Then someone asks: “How much cash did you actually keep?”
Silence.
A tumbleweed crosses the financial district, the accountant slowly removes his glasses. “Negative $6 billion.”
The parade stops, markets turn red, the marching band quietly switches to funeral music, then Tesla walks in: “BTW, we lost $1.1 billion in cash.”
Trump says: “Excellent! You’re investing!”
The accountant says: “Sir, that’s not how money works.”
Trump says: “Are you suggesting the money didn’t enjoy the journey?”
But my favorite thing about Wall Street is how investors behave.
When the stock goes up: “I am a genius.”
When the stock goes down: “The market is irrational.”
Nobody ever says:
“I may have paid $400 for a company worth $75.”
No.
That would require humility, and humility has terrible quarterly earnings.
Apple walks into the room carrying a briefcase. “Hello everyone, I have generated $129 billion in free cash flow.”
Everyone applauds.
Oracle walks in dragging a suitcase with holes, “Hello. I have burned $24 billion.”
Everyone asks: “Why?”
Oracle says:
“Artificial intelligence.”
Everyone nods.
Because apparently saying “AI” today has the same power as saying “magic spell” in medieval times.
The wizard says:
“AI will fix everything.”
The villagers ask:
“How?”
The wizard replies:
“First, give me $100 billion.”
Then comes SpaceX.
Investors look at the valuation chart.
Up! Up! Up!
Everyone cheers. President Trump declares: “The rocket economy has reached the moon!”
Then the chart falls, everyone stares. The rocket has reached the moon. Unfortunately, the investment portfolio stayed behind and exploded on the launchpad.
Fat Cat 🐈 Wall Streets 💴 official decoy investing philosophy below: 👇
Step One: Find a company everyone loves.
Step Two: Watch everyone pour money into it.
Step Three: Discover the money was actually being used to build a futuristic money-eating machine.
Step Four: Blame “market conditions.”
Step Five: Hire the President to make a financial announcement:
“My fellow Americans, do not worry. Your wealth has not disappeared.”
A citizen asks: “Where is it Mr. President?”
Trump smiles. “It has transformed.”
“Into what?”
The president looks at the empty treasury.
“A lesson, the stock market is a machine for transferring money from people who know everything…to people who discover they knew nothing.”
Many a day came and went, when I woke up and/or went to bed cashless. I'm still here. How is that? Why is that? Questions for another day, I guess. Best always. PM
Hell, I've been broke, busted, disgusted more times than I can count. It has a benefit: you don't worry about it, anymore. The prospect of "losing" doesn't scare you, which doesn't mean you go LOOKING for it. I've also been fired more times than most people even dream about or can conceive. You also lose your fear of that. Life is very fluid; if you miss one wave, there will be another. Best always. PM
Most folks who are entrepreneur understand your position and those who are not think you who benefit from medication.
Thanks for the insight. I never considered myself "entrepreneur", just trying to survive, but looking at it again, your statement brings great insight. It's the primary reason I'm here; the feedback from my fellow sojourners is invaluable. Best always. PM
Back at you. Best always. PM
I still like to sit on a big collection of metals and cash. At best I have a 20 year horizon so I'll sit tight and watch the fire works. I don't play Monopoly anymore.
Jim Marshall
Bill; If David Stockman has any free time. could you please ask him to do some number crunching (as only he can) analyzing the AI data center buildout costs and what sort of returns are required to recoup the money spent and generate profits ? I'd be curious to compare his none BS numbers versus the current narratives in the investment industry.
However, against the Apple theory I would argue:
sitting on their mountain of cash does not make them one iota more "innovative" per Steve Job's disruptor credo. Oppositely, while sitting on that unproductive cash mountain, and seeming smart (and very smug), *sitting out the AI investment* so they can (supposedly) witness the glut as it might turn out to be a carbon copy of the same "overspend" that happened in fiber hardware during dot-com.
At the same time they might think they can then just take that cash mountain once the overspend (mania) has subsided and "just buy whoever is the best/most profitable/smartest in AI" and add it to their ecosystem.
I'd not bet on that particular outcome neither for them this time. They might have sat that one out one too many and either one, OpenAI or Anthropic might get a device out there first, very similar to what the original iPhone was to the Blackberry and poof, gone is the leadership.
GE once had the largest horde of cash! It could be a motivator for bad acquisition decisions , or if held long enough less than stellar returns. I once work for a company for many years , not GE, front cover of forbes magazine , the cash richest company....
Out of business. Many of the acquisitions are still around.
As a former Navy guy from Vietnam, I appreciate a tidy and secure ship. Wit respect to ALL the new ships to be built I am not comfortable with the huge level of spending. They look "cool" but one missile can take out a carrier. A lot has changed since 1965.
Jim
When possible, give the customer what he wants. Best always. PM
Chasing far off, foreign monsters, just like the forefathers of the U.S. warned against.The billions are spent but the lessons are never learned. There won’t be any winners, but the ones who loose less in this war may surprise many.
It appears obvious, to me, that speculation is exuberant. More obvious than anything else! Everyone has their perspective. You make your bets and get what happens.
The Iranians can't be trusted but the US government can be trusted? Didn't Trump and Netanyahu bomb Iran and kill over 160 school girls in the midst of negotiations? Since you study history have you ever seen the list of treaties the US broke with the Indians? Interesting that you believe Israel can be trusted even though they have the Samson Option. Israeli military historian Martin Van Creveld asserted that if Israel is pushed to the brink of collapse and faces total destruction, the nation has the capability and will to "take the world down with us" before going under. The whole world includes the US!
The Iranians can't be trusted and governments can't be trusted.
Why mention the Iranians first? The US and their Israeli "allies" attacked Iran in the midst of negotiations. First day of strikes they bomb a girl's school killing over 160 little kids. Show me all the schools the Iranians have bombed in retaliation.
And Fauci took the 5th.
He'd better by LOOKING for a fifth. Best always. PM
Ha! Ha! Good one, Mr. Murray!
And so it goes of government protecting it's own.
My guess he holds that property because it is enjoyable.
History shows that those who receive free money usually make foolish decisions. Our daughter (and 5 grand kids) receives the rest of our money when we are both gone! If there's any left!
Jim Marshall