I suspect the next "big loss" will be in cash/cash "equivalents", because the "government" is in the process of blowing up the "dollar", and it will go broke. Not the country, not the government, but the money: the money is in the process of going broke, i.e. becoming worthless. Gradual depreciation aside (chronic inflation since WWII), no one among us has experienced this form of distress. In the 30s, The Great Depression, money became scarce and, therefore, appreciated in value, the opposite of today. Now, with The Great Default at hand, the money will go broke, and anything related to the money will go effectively to zero. The "bitch" of it is that all of us need cash to function on a daily basis; we simply can't bail out of "cash", so a certain amount of loss is unavoidable. We will have to hope that appreciation of hard assets will offset the loss in cash. Hard assets are inconvenient; "broke" is ruinous. Thank your "government", and those who worship at its feet. Best always. PM
Not to zero. Argentina has shown us that an economy can function with inflation well over 100%. It's unlikely the US will ever reach that degree of inflation.
We recently sold our home and moved into an apartment. After tallying up (conservatively) what we spent on our home of 27 years, we came up with a ballpark figure of $1.3M spent on that house for renos, maintenance, interest costs, property tax, and "chachkis" - unnecessary things we purchased for the home because we had to fill up the rooms.
After selling the house for 4x what we purchased it for and factoring out all common expenses we would have had to have paid in an apartment (current apartment only thing we pay for is parking and electricity) we would have came out $400k ahead if we had simply lived in an apartment all our lives. Using today's rental prices.
Imagine having invested portions of that $400k over time?
So while houses are great for raising a family (privacy), for hobbyists (who like to fix things - all the time), for people who love to entertain (lots of room in the backyard or in the rec room), and for hoarders (do we really need to keep ALL that stuff?), it all comes with a price tag. And the end realization, that we've been misled all along.
Luke -- I take the flip side of your argument but with a caveat. I contend a house is a great investment for the average person but -- the caveat -- if it's in a region where demand exists.
Some people, e, g., veterans, can buy a house with no money down and at a below market interest rate. Their tax deductible monthly mortgage payment is akin to a monthly investment in an ETF.
When they sell, they will likely net more that they would have earned in an ETF. However, like the market, there's no guarantee they'll make a lot of money, if any
But unlike an ETF, their house at least provided them shelter and comfort while residing in it.
This doesn't mean apartment living is inferior. There's lots of appeal to this option, not the least is there's no responsibility for repairs or for property tax payments
Mr. Roberts, Good points. Then there is always the noise (via thin walls) factor and young neighbors problem with apartments that you don't usually have with a house. If you are able to afford an expensive apartment with sound-proof walls, and then probably have older, better-behaved residents in adjoining apartments, compared to an expensive house, then I would think an apartment would be a better investment. So there are the quality-of-life and affluence-scale factors to consider as well.
Well said Frank. We now live in a concrete tower. The advantages outweigh the disadvantages.
1. The apartment will not allow the accumulation of crap. There is simply no room for it.
2. Beautiful vistas (we live in a tower)
3. Fixed maintenance fees ($0.00)
4. Old "maintenance time is now free time.
5. Free time allows you to do the things you want to do, but never had the time.
6. There is only room in here, for the things you actually love.
7. There are no stairs, unless you want there to be stairs (forced daily marches up and down the emergency escape staircases).
8. Only the people who "really" love you will visit (paid parking downtown ;)
9. Direct access to skywalks that take us all over downtown without having to step into the outside (lots of snow here)
10. Don't have to go outside to visit the gym (one in our complex)
11. No outdoor chores
12. Every day is garbage day (don't have to remember to put the giant cans at the curbside and deal with the consequences (full garbage cans for another week).
13. Heated, snow free, underground parking
14. No furnace, chimney, carpet, gutter, a/c, paint, sewer, grass, snow, pool, window, foundation, repairs of random pieces of the property, service, maintenance, or replacement costs.
15. The top floor can hold our family functions (common area)
16. Onsite dog park.
Disadvantages
1. Can't blow out the wall between the rooms to make the place more open concept
2. Can't have 20 people in our apartment for a family function
3. Can't play music as loud as I could back in the house. But then again, I don't want to (preserving that last bit of hearing)
4. Downtown is a little more sketchy than the old neighborhood (but we live 1 block away from the central police station).
5. Can't build things in the backyard. Luckily that desire vanished a long time ago.
6. Dog can't just be let outside to do as she pleases. (Which has forced us into a 3x a day walking routine with our dog. Not a bad thing after all).
So far, along with the monies being saved, we are loving not being chained to a house and having to look after it.
The land appreciates, the sticks and bricks depreciate - they rot and decay like all things. But the land remains and becomes scarcer as population increases.
That sounds good, and it might be right. For me, real property paid off, over 30 year, 4 houses, the average gain 650%. Most gains were probably just keeping up with inflation but there was a lot of security in that.
It was, as they say, location location. Of course, I built one house myself, had one built and worked as a carpenter when young which gave me the ability to do things myself, a very enjoyable exercise. Utube is a wonderful thing.
I have to agree completely. It is the big loss that is the most important consideration. With the sociological changes we are seeing big losses can creep up fast as the viability of businesses change. I read today that restaurants are closing like crazy in Oakland, because of robberies while customers are eating or coming in and out of restaurants. As Bill has stated in the past smash and grab isn't civilization. It seems the smash and grab is ending because stores are closing or have closed. Bottom line seems to be get the hell out of cities where illegals and the desperate are doing what the US leadership is hoping for. Desperation and government support.
Yes Joel, seems like the old, Problem, Reaction, Solution is at work here again.
Most that happens in our financial world is created by man, not by happenstance. Every up and down cycle is created. Trying to understand why is the difficult part, along with the timing.
This entire Plandemic was created for certain solutions, one of which is the containment of most of the population into city centers.
Soon all of these "empty office spaces" will be made into "Affordable housing" for our ignorant youth and the ignorant in general. The powers that are call them "15 Minute Cities"
"The 15-minute city is an urban planning concept in which most daily necessities and services, such as work, shopping, education, healthcare, and leisure can be easily reached by a 15-minute walk, bike ride, or public transit ride from any point in the city. This approach aims to reduce car dependency, promote healthy and sustainable living, and improve wellbeing and quality of life for city dwellers."
Remember the Hunger Games and how the elite like to show the public through art what they have to look forward to.
Soon all of these "empty office spaces" will be made into "Affordable housing" for our ignorant youth and the ignorant in general. The powers that are call them "15 Minute Cities"
"The next big opportunity for a Big Loss came in cryptos. A few people got rich – especially those who got out early. Most cryptos were dreamy scams. Pity the poor investor who put his whole wad into them."
Must disagree here. I've long wished I would have put even more into crypto.
"Stupidity" is kind of harsh, especially in Mr. Webb's case (see any of his previous posts.)
I maybe would have gone with Ignorance, Gullibility, Naivety or Erroneous Trust.
Cryptos/BTC are so new & revolutionary that they will require our "government" to come up with new & revolutionary methods when they decide to kill it...
Agree David, I am heavily vested in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and have been well compensated on paper with those investments.
Been trying to spread the word for years to all of my friends and family, including here, and hope I continue to be correct and we all make many more millions together:)
My worry is that the next big loss will be in precious metals. The US government is currently in the process of vilifying cryptos and Bitcoin. That escape valve is slowly being choked off. The Bullion banks and the PTB have been able to control gold and silver via the futures market. But we see physical gold draining quickly east - the irony being that the game being played is allowing the east to accumulate physical metal at prices far below where they should be while the west continues its paper games. As the financial system continues to implode the ability to control the futures market via endless credit creation to fund massive short selling will diminish. When gold and silver escape the shackles, the fraud of the US$ will be in plain sight. When that happens the eye of Sauron will turn to the PM’s and the ghost of FDR will be resurrected. Private ownership will be vilified and eventually outlawed - with forced liquidation at below market value or worse.
Gentleman of BPR acclaim .. today as always you have delivered .. value for money .. how many business can confidently say that ? my applause has no value but my subscription renewal does!
Not sure why you're so down on bonds. Yes, those who played the boom market for steady price gains have gotten whacked. But Treasuries at 5% seem like a real good place to park cash against the day when stocks return to earth....
A house is a "use" asset and as a bonus, you can make it your refuge from the world where you have more freedom and privacy than you ever could in an apartment. All the increased costs for shoddy government services, taxes, and failing public schools have made it less enjoyable over the years for me. When the kids were growing up we had gardens, pets, and 4H projects, great memories all. Best investment we ever made in many ways.
What the hell just happened!?! This is gotta be an inside job, they will say, you can’t detect them birds!
Forget about retirement, the only thing that will save you is your own craft, whatever it is that you are good at, keep doing it to keep the dough rolling in, until you’re dead! 😃🤣
If you can longer function, then sorry, too bad sooo sad! 😄, otherwise expect to lose lots of your hard earned money in the long run.
That's easy. The last president Bush told us how to do it. Set up a foundation or ministry. Every penny you earn goes into it. Give away 10% of the money to whatever the foundation was set up for. The rest is tax free. Hillary has a foundation. Do you think she pays any taxes? And she doesn't even give away 10%. Bush pointed the way; how many people do you think actually did it? How many on BPR? I'll bet it's close to zero.
"Where will the next Big Loss come from?"
I suspect the next "big loss" will be in cash/cash "equivalents", because the "government" is in the process of blowing up the "dollar", and it will go broke. Not the country, not the government, but the money: the money is in the process of going broke, i.e. becoming worthless. Gradual depreciation aside (chronic inflation since WWII), no one among us has experienced this form of distress. In the 30s, The Great Depression, money became scarce and, therefore, appreciated in value, the opposite of today. Now, with The Great Default at hand, the money will go broke, and anything related to the money will go effectively to zero. The "bitch" of it is that all of us need cash to function on a daily basis; we simply can't bail out of "cash", so a certain amount of loss is unavoidable. We will have to hope that appreciation of hard assets will offset the loss in cash. Hard assets are inconvenient; "broke" is ruinous. Thank your "government", and those who worship at its feet. Best always. PM
Not to zero. Argentina has shown us that an economy can function with inflation well over 100%. It's unlikely the US will ever reach that degree of inflation.
Houses have never been an investment. Ever.
We recently sold our home and moved into an apartment. After tallying up (conservatively) what we spent on our home of 27 years, we came up with a ballpark figure of $1.3M spent on that house for renos, maintenance, interest costs, property tax, and "chachkis" - unnecessary things we purchased for the home because we had to fill up the rooms.
After selling the house for 4x what we purchased it for and factoring out all common expenses we would have had to have paid in an apartment (current apartment only thing we pay for is parking and electricity) we would have came out $400k ahead if we had simply lived in an apartment all our lives. Using today's rental prices.
Imagine having invested portions of that $400k over time?
So while houses are great for raising a family (privacy), for hobbyists (who like to fix things - all the time), for people who love to entertain (lots of room in the backyard or in the rec room), and for hoarders (do we really need to keep ALL that stuff?), it all comes with a price tag. And the end realization, that we've been misled all along.
Houses are not investments.
Luke -- I take the flip side of your argument but with a caveat. I contend a house is a great investment for the average person but -- the caveat -- if it's in a region where demand exists.
Some people, e, g., veterans, can buy a house with no money down and at a below market interest rate. Their tax deductible monthly mortgage payment is akin to a monthly investment in an ETF.
When they sell, they will likely net more that they would have earned in an ETF. However, like the market, there's no guarantee they'll make a lot of money, if any
But unlike an ETF, their house at least provided them shelter and comfort while residing in it.
This doesn't mean apartment living is inferior. There's lots of appeal to this option, not the least is there's no responsibility for repairs or for property tax payments
Mr. Roberts, Good points. Then there is always the noise (via thin walls) factor and young neighbors problem with apartments that you don't usually have with a house. If you are able to afford an expensive apartment with sound-proof walls, and then probably have older, better-behaved residents in adjoining apartments, compared to an expensive house, then I would think an apartment would be a better investment. So there are the quality-of-life and affluence-scale factors to consider as well.
Well said Frank. We now live in a concrete tower. The advantages outweigh the disadvantages.
1. The apartment will not allow the accumulation of crap. There is simply no room for it.
2. Beautiful vistas (we live in a tower)
3. Fixed maintenance fees ($0.00)
4. Old "maintenance time is now free time.
5. Free time allows you to do the things you want to do, but never had the time.
6. There is only room in here, for the things you actually love.
7. There are no stairs, unless you want there to be stairs (forced daily marches up and down the emergency escape staircases).
8. Only the people who "really" love you will visit (paid parking downtown ;)
9. Direct access to skywalks that take us all over downtown without having to step into the outside (lots of snow here)
10. Don't have to go outside to visit the gym (one in our complex)
11. No outdoor chores
12. Every day is garbage day (don't have to remember to put the giant cans at the curbside and deal with the consequences (full garbage cans for another week).
13. Heated, snow free, underground parking
14. No furnace, chimney, carpet, gutter, a/c, paint, sewer, grass, snow, pool, window, foundation, repairs of random pieces of the property, service, maintenance, or replacement costs.
15. The top floor can hold our family functions (common area)
16. Onsite dog park.
Disadvantages
1. Can't blow out the wall between the rooms to make the place more open concept
2. Can't have 20 people in our apartment for a family function
3. Can't play music as loud as I could back in the house. But then again, I don't want to (preserving that last bit of hearing)
4. Downtown is a little more sketchy than the old neighborhood (but we live 1 block away from the central police station).
5. Can't build things in the backyard. Luckily that desire vanished a long time ago.
6. Dog can't just be let outside to do as she pleases. (Which has forced us into a 3x a day walking routine with our dog. Not a bad thing after all).
So far, along with the monies being saved, we are loving not being chained to a house and having to look after it.
Luke. Glad you are happy it sounds like hell to me.
Agree Luke, but the truth is, There's no place like home:)
Houses have always been a depreciating asset, like a car. The fallacy it appreciates is only present in an inflationary environment.
The land appreciates, the sticks and bricks depreciate - they rot and decay like all things. But the land remains and becomes scarcer as population increases.
A house that is lived in is not a good investment.
That sounds good, and it might be right. For me, real property paid off, over 30 year, 4 houses, the average gain 650%. Most gains were probably just keeping up with inflation but there was a lot of security in that.
It was, as they say, location location. Of course, I built one house myself, had one built and worked as a carpenter when young which gave me the ability to do things myself, a very enjoyable exercise. Utube is a wonderful thing.
I have to agree completely. It is the big loss that is the most important consideration. With the sociological changes we are seeing big losses can creep up fast as the viability of businesses change. I read today that restaurants are closing like crazy in Oakland, because of robberies while customers are eating or coming in and out of restaurants. As Bill has stated in the past smash and grab isn't civilization. It seems the smash and grab is ending because stores are closing or have closed. Bottom line seems to be get the hell out of cities where illegals and the desperate are doing what the US leadership is hoping for. Desperation and government support.
Hi Mack -
We ain't seen nuthin' yet.
Wait until all those ebt/snap cards STOP working and there's no signal on any O'blowme phone...
Yes Joel, seems like the old, Problem, Reaction, Solution is at work here again.
Most that happens in our financial world is created by man, not by happenstance. Every up and down cycle is created. Trying to understand why is the difficult part, along with the timing.
This entire Plandemic was created for certain solutions, one of which is the containment of most of the population into city centers.
Soon all of these "empty office spaces" will be made into "Affordable housing" for our ignorant youth and the ignorant in general. The powers that are call them "15 Minute Cities"
"The 15-minute city is an urban planning concept in which most daily necessities and services, such as work, shopping, education, healthcare, and leisure can be easily reached by a 15-minute walk, bike ride, or public transit ride from any point in the city. This approach aims to reduce car dependency, promote healthy and sustainable living, and improve wellbeing and quality of life for city dwellers."
Remember the Hunger Games and how the elite like to show the public through art what they have to look forward to.
'You will own Nothing, and be happy"...
Soon all of these "empty office spaces" will be made into "Affordable housing" for our ignorant youth and the ignorant in general. The powers that are call them "15 Minute Cities"
Aaaaaand we have a winner...
It's not difficult to understand. People want to get ahead. They get caught up in their own enthusiasm. The bubble pops. Rinse and repeat.
BTW, even if you win the rat race - you're still a rat.
"The next big opportunity for a Big Loss came in cryptos. A few people got rich – especially those who got out early. Most cryptos were dreamy scams. Pity the poor investor who put his whole wad into them."
Must disagree here. I've long wished I would have put even more into crypto.
The story is just getting started.
youth is the only advantage over stupidity ..
Hi Alt -
"Stupidity" is kind of harsh, especially in Mr. Webb's case (see any of his previous posts.)
I maybe would have gone with Ignorance, Gullibility, Naivety or Erroneous Trust.
Cryptos/BTC are so new & revolutionary that they will require our "government" to come up with new & revolutionary methods when they decide to kill it...
agreed naive would be a better term ..
Naive....let me check my accounts....nope....sorry you missed out.
I recently read that a government agency created it. To keep suckers out of real commodities.
Government wishes it created it.
There is definitely a conspiracy theory for just about everything.
Agree David, I am heavily vested in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and have been well compensated on paper with those investments.
Been trying to spread the word for years to all of my friends and family, including here, and hope I continue to be correct and we all make many more millions together:)
Yes! To clarify: most money in Bitcoin (a real asset) and small speculations in cryptos.
Thanks Bill for the word Wacked in todays email WeBroke. I've been looking for a word to describe how I feel. WACKED its perfect thank you.
My worry is that the next big loss will be in precious metals. The US government is currently in the process of vilifying cryptos and Bitcoin. That escape valve is slowly being choked off. The Bullion banks and the PTB have been able to control gold and silver via the futures market. But we see physical gold draining quickly east - the irony being that the game being played is allowing the east to accumulate physical metal at prices far below where they should be while the west continues its paper games. As the financial system continues to implode the ability to control the futures market via endless credit creation to fund massive short selling will diminish. When gold and silver escape the shackles, the fraud of the US$ will be in plain sight. When that happens the eye of Sauron will turn to the PM’s and the ghost of FDR will be resurrected. Private ownership will be vilified and eventually outlawed - with forced liquidation at below market value or worse.
Gentleman of BPR acclaim .. today as always you have delivered .. value for money .. how many business can confidently say that ? my applause has no value but my subscription renewal does!
Not sure why you're so down on bonds. Yes, those who played the boom market for steady price gains have gotten whacked. But Treasuries at 5% seem like a real good place to park cash against the day when stocks return to earth....
Duration risk. Bills are fine, Bonds, not so much…
A house is a "use" asset and as a bonus, you can make it your refuge from the world where you have more freedom and privacy than you ever could in an apartment. All the increased costs for shoddy government services, taxes, and failing public schools have made it less enjoyable over the years for me. When the kids were growing up we had gardens, pets, and 4H projects, great memories all. Best investment we ever made in many ways.
What the hell just happened!?! This is gotta be an inside job, they will say, you can’t detect them birds!
Forget about retirement, the only thing that will save you is your own craft, whatever it is that you are good at, keep doing it to keep the dough rolling in, until you’re dead! 😃🤣
If you can longer function, then sorry, too bad sooo sad! 😄, otherwise expect to lose lots of your hard earned money in the long run.
Having survived the Big Loss how do you survive the Big Tax grab? Governments can only tax those who avoided the BL in the first place.
Nail, meet hammer. THIS is the question of the hour...
That's easy. The last president Bush told us how to do it. Set up a foundation or ministry. Every penny you earn goes into it. Give away 10% of the money to whatever the foundation was set up for. The rest is tax free. Hillary has a foundation. Do you think she pays any taxes? And she doesn't even give away 10%. Bush pointed the way; how many people do you think actually did it? How many on BPR? I'll bet it's close to zero.
Father Nick ... Saint of $$$ ... give 10% to retired racehorse foundation (mine).
👍🙏
It could literally be whatever you want.
Yup worse is yet to come from these clowns. They are going to need a strong message.
Yes, I meant to say short duration.....
I wonder how long before you delete or modify this post, Steve L.
Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I seemed to forget 😳
Maybe too much whiskey 🤔