America’s ‘national’ debt rose from less than $6 trillion in 2000 to over $37 trillion now. The US trade deficit rose to $1.1 trillion over the last 12 months — 10 times more than it was 2000.
Please Bill, if your T.D.S. allows you to be around in 6 months, I beg you to give actual stats of products going up 30%! FROM China of course, not random stats that fit into your "worldview". I'll check back around November, BETTING you will be wrong!
I love reading Bill. The man can spin the same core truth a thousand different ways—just in case a few of you still don’t get it.
He sees the coming tsunami for what it is: a wall of water. It doesn’t care if you’re a Republican, a Kamala devotee, or still clinging to the hope that a miracle will emerge from today’s White House. It’s coming. And it will level everything in its path. At this point, the only smart move is to get to the other side of the island—with your life savings, if possible, still intact.
That’s all Bill and his crew are trying to say: “Here’s how to protect yourself from the wave.” They don’t care which side of the political fence you sit on—it’s irrelevant. What matters is whether you’re paying attention.
Because when the wave hits, there will be no win-win outcome. Not for the plebs.
Sure, Tom and Dan do their best to chart a course. Meanwhile, Bill glances over his shoulder, shakes his head, and does what he’s done best for half a century: laugh at the clowns on stage, as the wave rolls in behind them.
So for the rest of you still in denial? Do us one favour: take a selfie just before the water hits. We’ll post it on the wall of “Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda’s.”
Finally! A lefty lurking here has posted a reasonable explanation for Bill Bonner's constant insults, lies and never-failing to ignore positive results that have anything to do with Donald Trump.
Lucas, you exquisitely stated what all of us already know - while conveniently ducking the main complaint many of us have about Bill's past 12-months of gaslighting.
1. Protect Individual Rights - no exceptions. If a government can't guarantee your freedom of speech, property, belief and body-it has no business existing.
2. Spend responsibly, govern transparently - treat the cash that's being spent like it's your grandkid's money - because it is.
3. The best government governs least - stay out of markets, speech and bedrooms. Build roads, defend borders, enforce contracts. Then back away slowly.
It still does not address my original, provable points about how Mr. Bonner treats everything Trump related in his writings - but so what? They are HIS writings, I'm just pointing out the deficient parts...
Well, I've commented on pretty much each and every instance as it occurred, so if you seriously want to know, do a review. Or not - I am caring less and less everyday what the Trump haters and libtardes have to say and am currently resting against the Zero peg. You are all mostly wrong, will be proven so in the near-to-mid future, soon after recognize ANOTHER failure dead-ahead, then you will turn violent - as you always do.
No one is in denial, everyone here gets Bill's "the coming tsunami" dogma. As someone that has been reading Bonner long before he opened up this BPR shop I grant you that he's been consistent. The problem is he hasn't been prescient. He's been predicting the coming collapse for well over a decade now and though it will eventually happen (because if one waits long enough the laws of economics are inevitable), I don't find a stopped clock particularly brilliant when it's right a couple of times a day.
What those of us that <headshake> Bonner are saying is that instead of twisting facts and logic into a pretzel to trash Trump, why not stay focused on what we could be doing in the short term so as not to miss out on financial opportunities. Maximum Safety mode is fine for those with short horizons or severe risk aversion, but for others there's a significant opportunity cost.
It's like asking Mahatma Gandhi for a battle plan to assault Russia’s southern flank — wrong guy.
Same reason you have more than one friend. Not everyone wants to golf, play Canasta, or wander the woods with a metal detector. You need a range of voices in your life — physical, spiritual, financial — to navigate it all.
Bill is just one of those voices. My life doesn’t revolve around him, but I value his input. I take what resonates, mix it in with insights from my wife, kids, friends, even the landlord and all levels of government — and build my own plan.
If you're looking for someone to tell you that deficit spending is somehow good for the country, you won’t get it from Bill. That’s not his lane. Look to your other sources for that kind of optimism — because you’re not going to find it here.
Nobody thinks ". . . deficit spending is somehow good for the country . . ." However, it took seven decades to get here and it's going to take a lot more than seven minutes (relatively) to reverse it. Bill doesn't seem to grasp that.
You're right about Bill being one voice, and having one's life revolve around him would be perilous because it would be akin to being the second row on a dog sled team. The view would never change.
It probably started even earlier than we think. What Bill keeps hammering home — with that same old sledgehammer — is that not one U.S. president has had the spine to seriously confront deficit spending. Never mind trimming the fat. Just stop adding more.
Take the Department of Defense. Another $100 billion? Really? Here’s a thought: send them back to Accounting 101 and tell them, “No audit? No cash.” You’d be amazed how quickly a few bean counters find their calculators.
Let’s peek at the top 6 U.S. budget line items:
Social Security – $1,354B
Health – $889B
Medicare – $848B
National Defense – $820B
Income Security – $775B
Interest on the Debt – $663B
Add those up and you’re staring at $5.349 trillion — more than the federal government even pulls in through taxes.
Someone, anyone, has to hit the brakes. But as Bill keeps saying (and saying... and saying), no one has the guts.
Not even “Drain the Swamp” Donald. The man’s doing synchronized laps with the crocs at this point.
And here’s where it gets really nuts. Just the four social programs — Social Security, Health, Medicare, and Income Security — total $3.866 trillion. If every single American got a slice of that, it’d work out to about $11,700 per person.
Of course, not everyone qualifies. So if you break it down by actual recipients, the numbers get wild:
Social Security: $18K per person (74M people)
Health: $11K per person (79M)
Medicare: $12K per person (69M)
Income Security: $15K per person (50M)
Those aren’t "checks in the mail" numbers — a lot of that is backend: hospitals, insurers, drug companies, and yes, plenty of bureaucracy skimming off the top. But still... crazy.
And this is why folks like Bill are sounding the alarm. Not because they hate progress or want grandma to eat dog food — but because this ship has been taking on water for decades, and everyone’s still arguing over who gets the best deck chair.
So yeah, maybe Bill’s a broken clock. But even broken clocks are right twice a day.
And maybe — just maybe — this is one of those moments.
I think you're preaching to the choir. The first step is for this administration to get the CBO to change the GDP calculation and get government spending out of it, or at least everything but National Defense removed (because there are some tangible things produced that the Department of Defense purchases albeit overpriced and inefficient). This way, cutting government spending won't give the media the recession/depression cudgel to wield.
I believe it is quite possible for TDS to work both ways. The great savior who can walk on water. I did vote for Trump because he is not a Communist. Keep connecting the dots Bill.
The grand puppet show of modern politics, where the strings are made of lies, the stage is built on the bones of forgotten promises, and the audience claps like seals in a burning circus tent.
They tell you Japan is investing a trillion, Apple is throwing in half a trillion, and Saudi Arabia is backing up the money truck like a drunk uncle at a family reunion. Yeah, they roll out those numbers like lottery tickets, and you just keep scratching, hoping for a jackpot that never comes. The president himself stands there, like a carnival barker with a spray tan, spitting out figures like he’s got a direct deposit from the universe. Meanwhile, the stock market ticks away like a rigged slot machine, designed to keep you pulling that lever until your pockets are inside out.
And immigration? Please. They show you a plane full of bald-headed goons getting deported in first class, like that’s the end of the story. A hundred guys sent back to a country with millions, problem solved, folks. Clap your hands, turn the page. Next!
Then they gather the world’s idiots in the White House, shake hands like they’re swapping recipes at a bake sale, and promise each other a trillion dollars in imaginary investments. The cameras flash, the pens click, the cardboard signs get scribbled on with Sharpies, and the crowd cheers like they’re watching a dog catch a Frisbee. Fixed! Next!
Foreign policy? Don’t even start. He walks out to the podium, says he told the bad guys to knock it off, and they all just nodded like cartoon villains who suddenly found Jesus. Problem solved, fixed, next.
And you, sitting there clapping like a toy monkey with cymbals, actually believe it. You probably still think the military budget is for defense, that the FDA cares about your health, and that the IRS is just a misunderstood accountant who really wants you to succeed.
You think that white cardboard sign actually fixed healthcare? You probably also think the national debt is just a bar tab that some future president will settle up when they get their paycheck from Santa Claus.
Keep clapping, keep nodding, keep believing. The show goes on.
I can agree with your sentiment, Gypt - but not the end results you have assumed.
Sooooo - nothing we are seeing is actually real, including the early, positive feedback and activities? Are you going to come back here and sing praises when trillions DO get invested, when more ME Countries DO join the Abraham Accords, when Inflation/Gas Prices/Unemployment DO hit rock-bottom numbers like never seen before, or when MILLIONS of Illegals DO leave our Country either through Law Enforcement Action (which can't happen overnight) or Self-Deportation? Will we read your most excellent prose acknowledging ANY of that when it comes to pass - or will you pull a Bill Bonner?
We all know and agree the Debt Boulder is teetering over our heads and IS going to fall. The only way I see your doom-fest coming to pass in full is if Congress continues to sit on their thumbs and does not begin slashing appropriations/departments as well as codifying most of Trump's excellent EO's into Law.
Will they continue to drag their feet, take extra days off and cancel votes? Probably. And then so many of y'all that hate Trump and are cheering for the demise of your own Country can say "See? I told you so" from atop the rubble. Kudos to each and every one of you...
I'd love to see a factory magically appear that adds "trillions" to the U.S. economy. Really? You're holding your breath thinking this tactic will save the country? That bringing automated factories back to American soil is the silver bullet?
Will those factories come pre-loaded with small Southeast Asians working for $4 an hour? Or are you planning to pencil in some time during your day to work the production line?
There’s a reason those plants are overseas. No one in their right mind in the U.S. would assemble [insert product] for $4 an hour — or less. That kind of labor only exists where people are willing to accept those wages… and the standard of living that comes with them.
And about deporting undocumented workers — good luck with your fruit and vegetable crops. Maybe you’ll set aside a few hours to pick almonds, avocados, tomatoes, oranges, lettuce?
Or maybe not. But don’t worry — your absence will show up clearly in the price of those foods.
At least bananas should stay affordable. The countries producing them aren’t about to shoot themselves in the foot with a Trump-style purge of undocumented labor — mostly because the people picking those bananas actually live there. In a banana republic. You know. The ones shaped by CIA-backed coups that ensured prices stayed exactly where you like them: nice and cheap.
I get it Star-Man, you young buck! You’ve got faith in the grand, slow-moving redemption of this bloated, limping empire. 😃
You’re betting on the unicorn parade, where trillions flow, borders close themselves, and politicians find their spines. Beautiful dream, really. But me? I’m more of a pessimist with a soft spot for realism. I’ve seen too many pep rallies for the apocalypse to buy the redemption song. But hey, if the tide turns and the ship rights itself, I’ll tip my hat. I’ll even buy the next round, right after you finish clinking your glass to the sound of bureaucrats counting their loot and whispering sweet nothings into the abyss.
I get it Star-Man, you young buck! You’ve got faith in the grand, slow-moving redemption of this bloated, limping empire. 😃
You’re betting on the unicorn parade, where trillions flow, borders close themselves, and politicians find their spines. Beautiful dream, really. But me? I’m more of a pessimist with a soft spot for realism. I’ve seen too many pep rallies for the apocalypse to buy the redemption song. But hey, if the tide turns and the ship rights itself, I’ll tip my hat. I’ll even buy the next round, right after you finish clinking your glass to the sound of bureaucrats counting their loot and whispering sweet nothings into the abyss.
Wow, you're singing quite the different tune since the "Son of Fred", "American Savior" days. Not that I care, but you are either the greatest satirist of all time or you are schizophrenic.
You caught me friend! A symphony of contradictions, like a preacher moonlighting as a card shark. The trick ain’t in being one thing or the other, but in dancing the line between madness and genius, where the notes hit sharp and the crowd never quite knows if they should clap or pray.
Look, it's perfectly simple. Forget about DJT or any internal US politics.
USD's status as the reserve currency always meant that the rest of the world (which is bigger than USA, no, really it is) would need to be supplied with USD in order to trade, not only with USA, but between each other (petrodollar convention, etc).
Those dollars would be earned by foreigners sending stuff to USA, and if an excess of USD was earnt and held, recycling some of it into Treasuries, or buying assets in the US (Stocks, land, buildings).
Over decades, and free of the peg to gold, this developed into a situation where the USA runs intractable $2T budget deficits, has built up huge debts, and can't compete with other countries when it comes to manufacturing common items like spanners and dolls and cars and ships.
In the last 8 or so years, due to external shocks, the USA has bought its way out of trouble (Stimmies, etc etc) and shown the world that even without an emergency it will continue to print USD rather than balance its budget.
The USA changes its rules (Abolished mark-to-market accounting in March 2009; FED buying low-rated company bonds against its charter; FED now allowing (requiring?) banks to buy unlimited Treasuries) in order to continue printing USD.
The rest of the world can see that is unsustainable.
The rest of the world is reducing its holdings of USD, and swapping to gold in the absence of a better reserve currency than USD. So far.
In time, the USA and USD will be just another, admittedly important, but not exclusively so, country and currency.
The only effect DJT, or any other leader, has on this process is to lengthen or shorten the time, by sweet-talking countries with money, or dissing countries that want to trade bilaterally, without using the USD.
It's happening now.
Forget about USA's internal politics and circus; just look to the former country and reserve currency, the UK and the GBP, and that is where USA is headed. Fast or slow, you can't get off, so try to enjoy the ride.
"It is on that basis that a whole nation of 330 million people goes along with Mr. Trump’s trade war, when all the evidence — both theoretical and empirical — suggests that it will be a complete fiasco."
The first part of that quote is untrue. As for the second part about the "complete fiasco", Bonner goes on to explain..... er, never mind, he doesn't go on to explain anything. As with the global warming crowd, Bonner uses the "argument from authority" in that he states that "all the evidence...suggests that it will be a complete fiasco." What evidence - Bill doesn't say. This is similar to the global warmers who proclaim that 97% of "mainstream" scientists support the world is warming due to CO2 production from man-made activity. The 97% is completely made up based loosely on selected summaries of papers most of which are not by climate scientists, but by scientists studying certain other phenomena while accepting the global warming hypothesis as a given.
As with so many of his columns, this is just another TDS diatribe. However, I do appreciate the historical summary of info at the beginning of his column, the only facts Bill presents. Unfortunately, it is followed by many assertions without supporting evidence.
All true, John. Bill seems to be writing his missives while aiming for a less-intelligent, less-informed, less critical audience than he actually has - and that will cause him to lose subscribers, particularly as events and results put "Paid" to the lies, inaccuracies and assumptions. Good thing he doesn't need the money...
Dear Bill, guess what, I am a US consumer at a high level and I am definitely Not paying 30% more for Chinese goods. So if the manufacturer doesn’t eat-it the middleman will.
You may be high-level, but your competitors will still eat your lunch—buying as they always have, and selling at prices you’ll struggle to match, even with tariffs in place. Especially if you’re now trying to replace Chinese suppliers with higher-cost alternatives.
But hey, if you’ve found a way around that reality—something other high-level players can learn from—do tell. We’re all ears.
"Based on the minimum wage, an unskilled laborer in Shanghai can expect to make less than $4 per hour...whereas one in Washington DC will make $17. (This is largely because the Fed has inflated wages along with everything else in the U.S. while enabling a huge increase in debt, much of which was used to buy foreign-made goods.)" -- The most important comment in today's drivel
So I ask you Bill, who is the real culprit behind America's plight? Politicians like Trump, or the Fed?
It’s not only the Fed’s tinkering that inflates wages. It’s the “living wage” mantra. Business 101, COGS can’t be greater than what people will pay for products or services. The “real culprit” is meddling politicians generally & specifically.
"Meddling politicians" are part of the problem without question. But all politicians are fairly temporary (notwithstanding a few in D.C.). But guess where all the bad ideas, policies and meddling originate? As a guy that has multiple businesses that serve governmental agencies at the County and Municipal levels, I can tell you that the politicians are merely sheep and the real wolves that come up with all the bad ideas and policies are getting paid stupid salaries and benefits regardless of the results of their ideas and policies . Just like the bureaucrat PHD's that work at the Fed.
Why do you think that things stay so much the same regardless of the intentions of politicians that sincerely want to change them? This is why Trump, Musk et al are being vilified. They are trying to break up the real cabal which is the federal bureaucracy. The true evil that runs the show.
Stupid people demanding more free stuff from Washington. The day is near when the bill for that "free" stuff will come due. The truth of the matter is the bill is coming due right now. You ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to the demand for more free stuff. Soup lines of the 30's will seem like a buffet. If we have any chance of redemption then the demands on government must stop. How many voters understand this? How many will stop with their demands? Looks like the goose is about out of gas (gold). Ain't free wonderful?
All true, but the demands won't stop until the number of people being paid to meet those demands is reduced by 75%. The world needs ditch diggers too and digging ditches would be a far more productive endeavor for the vast majority of those in the federal government's workforce. Long live DOGE!
Nobody wants to see soup lines, our economy needs to be rejiggered. The sharper the pain the shorter the duration. Many people need to get back to work. They need to be proud of what they do.
"The most important comment in today's drivel" IMHO is BB's on the unsustainable level of US DEBT to which a large part of his piece was devoted.
Why this raises the hackles of so many commentators is hard to understand, but may be attributed to the realisation that our honest and intelligent politicians are unable to reign in spending and that the US empire is exhibiting the same symptoms and signs exhibited before the fall of all empires in history and we have no comfortable solution to the problem
The real culprit is the acceptance of the morality of altruism (which literally means "otherism") which leads to the welfare state - that is, confiscation of resources by force (taxation) from the people who produce to the people who don't. Until this evil, which is accepted by most, is irradicated, we will continue to support people most of whom are capable of supporting themselves. The ones who can't would have to rely on charity. If you want to live in a civilized society, no one has the right to steal from others to support themselves. Once that principle is breached, then just about anything goes and hence, $37T in debt, and in communist countries, millions dead.
The real culprit is simple: spending beyond our means. Nothing more, nothing less.
It started with wars we couldn’t afford—funded not by savings, but by borrowing. Once that door was opened, it became far too easy to tack on more: welfare, Medicaid, Social Security—you name it.
But let’s be honest. The department that lit the fuse—and still fails its audits year after year—is the Defense Department. Compared to its bloated, opaque budget, the rest of the government’s spending is spare change. And unlike welfare programs, it's considered untouchable. Question it, and suddenly you're accused of undermining national security—or worse, staging a coup.
Well said. I've been hoping that Trump would set DOGE amongst the Defense Dept. pigeons because there is no doubt that there is a treasure trove of waste and abuse there. The problem is that would probably get somebody at a high level killed.
The debt is a huge problem. The problem with the TDS is that The complaints are that we'll pay thirty percent more for uk products. That is a tax yes. It's a voluntary tax. Enjoy your landrover it's worth it. The new financial playing field would make it easier for U.S manufacturers to compete despite our high wages, high regulatory burden , outrageous legal expense burdens,high welfare state burdens.
Shall see , but at least somebody is doing something.
A question. If crop work doing this what will be happening now? What would be closer to some form of economic redemptio? I realike That that is two questions.
Bill, despite the fact that I really like many of his post and positions never offers a solution, ever.
Thank you for the link to BB's Jokers and Clowns Christmas present where he lays out very practical ways to fix the debt. Essential reading for all his naysayers in this commentariat who accuse him of pessimism without providing solutions.
Pity he wrote this on Christmas when mot of his readers were too full of Christmas cheer to concentrate on this gem
Read it at the time and have it saved on my desktop. It's a wonderful, admirable Christmas DREAM.
Can you point out exactly what part(s) of that most-excellent missive are actually feasible in today's environment? No?? Well let's look at alternative actions that we CAN do that might get us to the same destination. I'll go first -
1. Identify and Cut Theft, Waste and Fraud in ALL government departments - direct savings to paying down the debt.
2. Balance the Trade regimen so that we collect more in Tariffs and open-up otherwise closed markets to American-made products.
3. Unleash the Energy Potential of resources we already have here - make Energy as inexpensive as possible to spur Growth.
4. Drastically reduce Regulations and Taxes so the Producers in our Nation keep more of what they earn to use on Expansion and Consumption.
Sound familiar? It won't if you refuse to step outside of the MSM/BPR bubble...
I have problems with 2. Open trade on the age old model of comparative advantage lies at the heart of a good deal . I trade with you for something I can make and buy from you what I need and can afford in other words a win-win deal.
A glaring example would be the US purchase of socks and underwear from Bangladesh who have a labour cost advantage verses selling Cadillacs to a country which lacks the money and the infrastructure to warrant the purchase.
The tariffs collected will be from the US citizen who will be paying more for his underpants The Bangladeshi will not miss his purchase of a Cadillac as he never dreamt of having one.
BTW I have long ago stepped outside the MSM bubble, but still find great satisfaction following the thoughts in the BPR essays and commentary such as yours. The exchange of opinion and debate is invaluable.
Bill, Correct. Bill Bonner doesn't provide practical solutions because I wonder if he is not remotely the man he used to be. I used to think he didn't do so because his ego was too large to be able to take critical analyzes from many of his well-educated, well-informed readers. But over the past year, I'm beginning to wonder.
For example, in today's essay, he asserts there is theoretical and empirical evidence that will show that Pres. Trump's trade war will end up as a fiasco. Then, incredibly, Bill doesn't provide any of the evidence!
Secondly, in the same essay, Bill writes that Pres. Trump disrupts almost everything except things that most need disrupting. A cute turn of phrase, but then he doesn't provide even a short list of the things that need disrupting. You can't make this stuff up.
And this is not the first time over the past year that he has done this pertaining to major matters facing the U.S. He writes about 240 essays every year, and probably employs many assistants. So you would think he could at least ask them to help him with his essays once in awhile.
Nice try. But as I mentioned above to your forgetful friend—Bill has offered solutions. The problem? No politician has the guts to follow through. And perhaps even worse—no real desire to, either.
Mr. SE: You nailed it. You provided an EXCELLENT, feasible list of improvements rather than this grandstanding business by Bill, Sen. Paul, Rep. Massie, and some commenters on these daily threads. I think the problem here is that the overwhelming majority of Bill's readers are affluent, well-read, well-educated, older men, like you and me, who either don't care if a depression occurred from--quickly--straightening things out because they and their families/relatives would be able to survive it; or, in spite of their education and reading, don't realize that the trillions the federal govt. spends is not to employ just 3M fed. govt. workers, but an estimated 15M-20M contracted employees such as defense workers (pentagon spending), health care workers (HHS-Medicare & Medicaid spending), and, social workers/dispensers of welfare, in the private sector.
I hope the reason is the latter. So if either party tried to do this quickly, you and I know that party would commit political suicide, and even the members of Congress are not that stupid.
P.S. - I will keep your list and pass it on. I hope you repeat it early in the day so Bill might read it; or, Dan, Tom. or one of Bill's children might read it, and try to get through to Bill, if that's even possible. Ha! Ha!
To median rent an apartment in DC is about $2K per month. At $17 per hour (2000 hours per year) an individual would be paying 2/3 of their income for housing. Did the FED cause the housing crisis or were their other factors?
Same ballpark in Singapore—about $2K/month for a one-bedroom. Unskilled labor there earns around $15/hour, but with far more built-in benefits.
The reality? People adapt. Strangers become roommates. Costs get split. You do what you have to do to survive.
But let’s not kid ourselves—the gap between the haves and have-nots keeps widening. Every single day.
As for the Fed and the housing crisis? It’s part of a bigger pattern: spending more than you earn. That’s where it begins. One more 65" TV on credit… then the bill outpaces the paycheck. Arguments over money. Divorce. Alimony. Lawyers. Bankruptcy. Sometimes worse.
People ask, “Was it the divorce that ruined them?”
No. It was spending beyond their means—on every level.
“Trump’s tariffs were supposed to start a new Great Depression. But it is beginning to look like they are kicking off a Great Expansion instead. Fortunately, the experts were wrong again.”
No comment from me needed. Well, one: Mr. Bonner really should cease with what has become a sad, and somewhat pathetic, one-trick-pony hate-Trump sideshow.
Bonner and his pathetic sycophants will continue to ignore Reality - followed by a massive exit of paying subscribers who didn't want Trump cheerleading, just Fair and Objective analysis. That type of substack is impossible to get here due to personal jealousy and hatred. So sad and a terrible way to close-out an otherwise noteworthy career spent educating people...
Forget RFK for a second — let’s talk about that Boeing “$1.2T economic impact” fairytale. The actual deal? Worth up to $96 billion — and that's assuming Qatar pays full retail, which they almost certainly aren't. Realistically, it’s probably closer to $50–65 billion after typical aviation industry discounts.
But retail price headlines look good.
For Trump.
Then, magically, that number gets tossed into an economic blender — add multipliers, decades of projections, supply chain pixie dust — and poof! we’re talking $1.2 trillion in “economic activity.”
What they don’t say out loud is: that $1T is projected over 30+ years.
It’s like bragging you’ll earn a million dollars — on a $50K salary — without mentioning it’ll take you 20 years, and that you can’t spend or get taxed on a penny.
Disingenuous? Absolutely.
But that’s become standard issue with Team Trump: inflate, distort, deflect, repeat.
I finished season 1 of Outlast last night, and finished season 2 about 2 weeks ago. The show boils down the struggle of human nature with the competing devils and angels trying to guide you.
I also have been watching for some time now how the American middle class wants to be something more, but doesn't want to get it's hands dirty. It wants financial gravity to be defied. The upper class(es) are not wanting any more seats at the table. There just won't be enough to go around for everyone. So there is this top down compression that in pursuit of more $$$ left at the top, has sent jobs elsewhere. This coupled with lower income classes in other country's wanting the same thing we have already.....and they are willing to work for it. All this = manufacturing jobs have left the US and there is more $$$ at the top. DT is in economic la la land thinking the tariffs will solve the problem(s.)
I wear Scarpa boots. They are handmade in northern Italy by, essentially, a COOP of artisans. They are expensive. The workers earn a good wage. Imagine a world where buying local produced the best quality available and a comfortable income for the laborers. Yep, just imagine because it is not going to happen. The world is addicted to low quality cheap goods and big industry is chomping at the bit to supply it. Maybe, if we decided to have less crap in favor of only having high quality, fewer things; maybe if people would take pride in their work and produce only the best quality goods; maybe if the cost of these vs productivity didn't matter so much; that skilled local people could be satisfied with a decent living; maybe.... I better stop. I almost sound like a libtard.
As I get older, no joke, I want fewer things, but I want them the highest quality I can get. I dont care so much for the workers; that is management's problem. I am disgusted with the quantity of disposable everything in our society. Nothing is worth having for very long. Remember, we used to re-bottle cokes, milk, etc. We drank water from the hose instead of Dasani. We didnt have the term micro plastic in our lexicon.
I want a steak that came from a cow that ate in a field. I want a handmade shotgun from Turkey. I want my Scarpa boots, and I want our Fed to stop flushing ourselves down the toilet. I dont want to just Outlast, I want to thrive while I am here.
Default is not an option, all those Retirement accounts with government bonds emptied? You will really need guns and ammo!
"The US debt owed to US citizens in their retirement savings is a significant portion of the total national debt. As of 2024, the national debt was approximately $36.2 trillion, with a considerable portion, including securities held by government trust funds, representing obligations to programs like Social Security, which fund retirement benefits according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Specifically, the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund held around $2.6 trillion in securities, which are a form of debt owed to Social Security recipients. "
What is the single largest component of the total US retirement market?
With $3.1 trillion, equity funds were the most common type of funds held in 401(k) plans, followed by $1.4 trillion in hybrid funds, which include target date funds. Note: Components may not add to the total because of rounding.
Of all your statements in this morning’s dismissive missive the most galling is your one stating all over the world people are laughing contemptuously at our country. First I don’t believe it and secondly if they are they better be learning Russian or Chinese if America ever fails.
Trump's reception in SA and Qatar sure didn't look like they were laughing - it resembled a level of RESPECT rarely (if ever) shown toward the United States or our President by ANY Country in the Middle East. Just compare the SA King with DJT versus how he "greeted" TraitorJoe. But keep smelling your own farts, Bill.
Bill is being purposefully deceptive and obtusely ignorant about so much Reality and this is inarguable - even if you are one of the commenters here who drools over the continuous insults and half-truths, while seemingly cheering for the worst for our Country and ignoring any positive results from our President.
Facts are Facts, folks - and don't go away when you refuse to acknowledge them....
PS - So how'd it work out for the German Government Officials who publicly laughed at Trump during his address to the UN regarding their dependence on Russian Oil? I have no doubt Bonner was loving that too, but we all saw the results. More Pesky-ass Reality...
And by the way — yes, Trump was right to warn Germany about Russian energy. That clip aged well.
But what does that have to do with him standing next to a Boeing deal he didn’t negotiate?
Being right about one thing doesn’t mean you get to claim credit for everything. Especially when the heavy lifting was done over years by diplomats, executives, and trade reps — not during a handshake and a press flash.
Claiming credit for the Boeing deal is like showing up at a wedding and calling yourself the matchmaker.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) committed to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework in the United States, announced by the White House on March 21, 2025.
The framework aims to significantly expand UAE investments in the U.S. economy, focusing on key sectors like AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing.
Sounds impressive — until you scratch the surface.
Scale and Feasibility:
That $1.4 trillion figure amounts to nearly 30% of the UAE's entire annual GDP — every year for a decade. Experts like Neil Quilliam (Chatham House) say it’s more geopolitical theatre than financial reality. It's about signaling alignment with the U.S. over rivals like China — not actually writing trillion-dollar checks.
So once again, we’re looking at "potential cash" from "potential projects."
And how much of it helps reduce the $37 trillion U.S. national debt?
Spend less than they make — Balanced budgets. (Good luck with that.)
Protect individual freedoms — Stop forsaking civil liberties like habeas corpus (see: Guantanamo, courtesy of the Patriot Act).
Less government — A half-hearted effort. They’re cutting DEI and education, but leave the real elephant untouched: the Department of Defense, which just got another $100B. More spending... without saving a dime to begin with?
"‘The Donald’ howls at the moon and disrupts almost everything... except for those things that most need disrupting" What in your cynical mind do you think matters most? Or is that just a convenient way to sell more dribble?
Maybe Bill was in part referring to the Pentagon. Instead of disrupting business as usual Trump is increasing the Pentagon budget. Even Steve Bannon said that the DOGE boys need to cross the Potomac and focus on the Pentagon. Has anyone seen any evidence that Musk's team is auditing the Pentagon, looking for those missing trillions? It's amazing that we spend so much in defense but haven't won a war in most of our lifetimes. Since the Pentagon never passes an audit you would think that cuts in the defense budget would be low hanging fruits.
"‘The Donald’ howls at the moon and disrupts almost everything... except for those things that most need disrupting" I love it!
Please Bill, if your T.D.S. allows you to be around in 6 months, I beg you to give actual stats of products going up 30%! FROM China of course, not random stats that fit into your "worldview". I'll check back around November, BETTING you will be wrong!
I love reading Bill. The man can spin the same core truth a thousand different ways—just in case a few of you still don’t get it.
He sees the coming tsunami for what it is: a wall of water. It doesn’t care if you’re a Republican, a Kamala devotee, or still clinging to the hope that a miracle will emerge from today’s White House. It’s coming. And it will level everything in its path. At this point, the only smart move is to get to the other side of the island—with your life savings, if possible, still intact.
That’s all Bill and his crew are trying to say: “Here’s how to protect yourself from the wave.” They don’t care which side of the political fence you sit on—it’s irrelevant. What matters is whether you’re paying attention.
Because when the wave hits, there will be no win-win outcome. Not for the plebs.
Sure, Tom and Dan do their best to chart a course. Meanwhile, Bill glances over his shoulder, shakes his head, and does what he’s done best for half a century: laugh at the clowns on stage, as the wave rolls in behind them.
So for the rest of you still in denial? Do us one favour: take a selfie just before the water hits. We’ll post it on the wall of “Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda’s.”
<headshake>
Finally! A lefty lurking here has posted a reasonable explanation for Bill Bonner's constant insults, lies and never-failing to ignore positive results that have anything to do with Donald Trump.
Lucas, you exquisitely stated what all of us already know - while conveniently ducking the main complaint many of us have about Bill's past 12-months of gaslighting.
Well done...
Lefty? Ha!
I couldn't care less WHO ran the front office.
Just follow a few rules.
1. Protect Individual Rights - no exceptions. If a government can't guarantee your freedom of speech, property, belief and body-it has no business existing.
2. Spend responsibly, govern transparently - treat the cash that's being spent like it's your grandkid's money - because it is.
3. The best government governs least - stay out of markets, speech and bedrooms. Build roads, defend borders, enforce contracts. Then back away slowly.
Here Here - we are in complete agreement.
It still does not address my original, provable points about how Mr. Bonner treats everything Trump related in his writings - but so what? They are HIS writings, I'm just pointing out the deficient parts...
what exactly is Bill's gaslighting for the past 12 months?
Well, I've commented on pretty much each and every instance as it occurred, so if you seriously want to know, do a review. Or not - I am caring less and less everyday what the Trump haters and libtardes have to say and am currently resting against the Zero peg. You are all mostly wrong, will be proven so in the near-to-mid future, soon after recognize ANOTHER failure dead-ahead, then you will turn violent - as you always do.
Connect THOSE dots...
No one is in denial, everyone here gets Bill's "the coming tsunami" dogma. As someone that has been reading Bonner long before he opened up this BPR shop I grant you that he's been consistent. The problem is he hasn't been prescient. He's been predicting the coming collapse for well over a decade now and though it will eventually happen (because if one waits long enough the laws of economics are inevitable), I don't find a stopped clock particularly brilliant when it's right a couple of times a day.
What those of us that <headshake> Bonner are saying is that instead of twisting facts and logic into a pretzel to trash Trump, why not stay focused on what we could be doing in the short term so as not to miss out on financial opportunities. Maximum Safety mode is fine for those with short horizons or severe risk aversion, but for others there's a significant opportunity cost.
It's like asking Mahatma Gandhi for a battle plan to assault Russia’s southern flank — wrong guy.
Same reason you have more than one friend. Not everyone wants to golf, play Canasta, or wander the woods with a metal detector. You need a range of voices in your life — physical, spiritual, financial — to navigate it all.
Bill is just one of those voices. My life doesn’t revolve around him, but I value his input. I take what resonates, mix it in with insights from my wife, kids, friends, even the landlord and all levels of government — and build my own plan.
If you're looking for someone to tell you that deficit spending is somehow good for the country, you won’t get it from Bill. That’s not his lane. Look to your other sources for that kind of optimism — because you’re not going to find it here.
Nobody thinks ". . . deficit spending is somehow good for the country . . ." However, it took seven decades to get here and it's going to take a lot more than seven minutes (relatively) to reverse it. Bill doesn't seem to grasp that.
You're right about Bill being one voice, and having one's life revolve around him would be perilous because it would be akin to being the second row on a dog sled team. The view would never change.
It probably started even earlier than we think. What Bill keeps hammering home — with that same old sledgehammer — is that not one U.S. president has had the spine to seriously confront deficit spending. Never mind trimming the fat. Just stop adding more.
Take the Department of Defense. Another $100 billion? Really? Here’s a thought: send them back to Accounting 101 and tell them, “No audit? No cash.” You’d be amazed how quickly a few bean counters find their calculators.
Let’s peek at the top 6 U.S. budget line items:
Social Security – $1,354B
Health – $889B
Medicare – $848B
National Defense – $820B
Income Security – $775B
Interest on the Debt – $663B
Add those up and you’re staring at $5.349 trillion — more than the federal government even pulls in through taxes.
Someone, anyone, has to hit the brakes. But as Bill keeps saying (and saying... and saying), no one has the guts.
Not even “Drain the Swamp” Donald. The man’s doing synchronized laps with the crocs at this point.
And here’s where it gets really nuts. Just the four social programs — Social Security, Health, Medicare, and Income Security — total $3.866 trillion. If every single American got a slice of that, it’d work out to about $11,700 per person.
Of course, not everyone qualifies. So if you break it down by actual recipients, the numbers get wild:
Social Security: $18K per person (74M people)
Health: $11K per person (79M)
Medicare: $12K per person (69M)
Income Security: $15K per person (50M)
Those aren’t "checks in the mail" numbers — a lot of that is backend: hospitals, insurers, drug companies, and yes, plenty of bureaucracy skimming off the top. But still... crazy.
And this is why folks like Bill are sounding the alarm. Not because they hate progress or want grandma to eat dog food — but because this ship has been taking on water for decades, and everyone’s still arguing over who gets the best deck chair.
So yeah, maybe Bill’s a broken clock. But even broken clocks are right twice a day.
And maybe — just maybe — this is one of those moments.
I think you're preaching to the choir. The first step is for this administration to get the CBO to change the GDP calculation and get government spending out of it, or at least everything but National Defense removed (because there are some tangible things produced that the Department of Defense purchases albeit overpriced and inefficient). This way, cutting government spending won't give the media the recession/depression cudgel to wield.
Kirk are you betting that DT will back down again and lower the level or will the tariff be higher than 30%? I will agree with you that nobody knows.
Business hates nothing more than uncertainty as it destroys future planning. Will he/she need to tool up to produce more socks and underwear or not.
The most
successful businesses prosper within a whirlwind. Consistency and predictability make you weak. That is the cause of our current economic predicament.
Those who are afraid of pain and change are bound to get a great deal more of it.
I believe it is quite possible for TDS to work both ways. The great savior who can walk on water. I did vote for Trump because he is not a Communist. Keep connecting the dots Bill.
The grand puppet show of modern politics, where the strings are made of lies, the stage is built on the bones of forgotten promises, and the audience claps like seals in a burning circus tent.
They tell you Japan is investing a trillion, Apple is throwing in half a trillion, and Saudi Arabia is backing up the money truck like a drunk uncle at a family reunion. Yeah, they roll out those numbers like lottery tickets, and you just keep scratching, hoping for a jackpot that never comes. The president himself stands there, like a carnival barker with a spray tan, spitting out figures like he’s got a direct deposit from the universe. Meanwhile, the stock market ticks away like a rigged slot machine, designed to keep you pulling that lever until your pockets are inside out.
And immigration? Please. They show you a plane full of bald-headed goons getting deported in first class, like that’s the end of the story. A hundred guys sent back to a country with millions, problem solved, folks. Clap your hands, turn the page. Next!
Then they gather the world’s idiots in the White House, shake hands like they’re swapping recipes at a bake sale, and promise each other a trillion dollars in imaginary investments. The cameras flash, the pens click, the cardboard signs get scribbled on with Sharpies, and the crowd cheers like they’re watching a dog catch a Frisbee. Fixed! Next!
Foreign policy? Don’t even start. He walks out to the podium, says he told the bad guys to knock it off, and they all just nodded like cartoon villains who suddenly found Jesus. Problem solved, fixed, next.
And you, sitting there clapping like a toy monkey with cymbals, actually believe it. You probably still think the military budget is for defense, that the FDA cares about your health, and that the IRS is just a misunderstood accountant who really wants you to succeed.
You think that white cardboard sign actually fixed healthcare? You probably also think the national debt is just a bar tab that some future president will settle up when they get their paycheck from Santa Claus.
Keep clapping, keep nodding, keep believing. The show goes on.
I can agree with your sentiment, Gypt - but not the end results you have assumed.
Sooooo - nothing we are seeing is actually real, including the early, positive feedback and activities? Are you going to come back here and sing praises when trillions DO get invested, when more ME Countries DO join the Abraham Accords, when Inflation/Gas Prices/Unemployment DO hit rock-bottom numbers like never seen before, or when MILLIONS of Illegals DO leave our Country either through Law Enforcement Action (which can't happen overnight) or Self-Deportation? Will we read your most excellent prose acknowledging ANY of that when it comes to pass - or will you pull a Bill Bonner?
We all know and agree the Debt Boulder is teetering over our heads and IS going to fall. The only way I see your doom-fest coming to pass in full is if Congress continues to sit on their thumbs and does not begin slashing appropriations/departments as well as codifying most of Trump's excellent EO's into Law.
Will they continue to drag their feet, take extra days off and cancel votes? Probably. And then so many of y'all that hate Trump and are cheering for the demise of your own Country can say "See? I told you so" from atop the rubble. Kudos to each and every one of you...
I'd love to see a factory magically appear that adds "trillions" to the U.S. economy. Really? You're holding your breath thinking this tactic will save the country? That bringing automated factories back to American soil is the silver bullet?
Will those factories come pre-loaded with small Southeast Asians working for $4 an hour? Or are you planning to pencil in some time during your day to work the production line?
There’s a reason those plants are overseas. No one in their right mind in the U.S. would assemble [insert product] for $4 an hour — or less. That kind of labor only exists where people are willing to accept those wages… and the standard of living that comes with them.
And about deporting undocumented workers — good luck with your fruit and vegetable crops. Maybe you’ll set aside a few hours to pick almonds, avocados, tomatoes, oranges, lettuce?
Or maybe not. But don’t worry — your absence will show up clearly in the price of those foods.
At least bananas should stay affordable. The countries producing them aren’t about to shoot themselves in the foot with a Trump-style purge of undocumented labor — mostly because the people picking those bananas actually live there. In a banana republic. You know. The ones shaped by CIA-backed coups that ensured prices stayed exactly where you like them: nice and cheap.
I get it Star-Man, you young buck! You’ve got faith in the grand, slow-moving redemption of this bloated, limping empire. 😃
You’re betting on the unicorn parade, where trillions flow, borders close themselves, and politicians find their spines. Beautiful dream, really. But me? I’m more of a pessimist with a soft spot for realism. I’ve seen too many pep rallies for the apocalypse to buy the redemption song. But hey, if the tide turns and the ship rights itself, I’ll tip my hat. I’ll even buy the next round, right after you finish clinking your glass to the sound of bureaucrats counting their loot and whispering sweet nothings into the abyss.
Cheers Brotha! 🍻
I get it Star-Man, you young buck! You’ve got faith in the grand, slow-moving redemption of this bloated, limping empire. 😃
You’re betting on the unicorn parade, where trillions flow, borders close themselves, and politicians find their spines. Beautiful dream, really. But me? I’m more of a pessimist with a soft spot for realism. I’ve seen too many pep rallies for the apocalypse to buy the redemption song. But hey, if the tide turns and the ship rights itself, I’ll tip my hat. I’ll even buy the next round, right after you finish clinking your glass to the sound of bureaucrats counting their loot and whispering sweet nothings into the abyss.
Well said SE... Bravo!!
Wow, you're singing quite the different tune since the "Son of Fred", "American Savior" days. Not that I care, but you are either the greatest satirist of all time or you are schizophrenic.
You caught me friend! A symphony of contradictions, like a preacher moonlighting as a card shark. The trick ain’t in being one thing or the other, but in dancing the line between madness and genius, where the notes hit sharp and the crowd never quite knows if they should clap or pray.
You remind me of that great philosopher Tony "Scarface" Montana, "I tell the truth . . . even when I lie!"
Look, it's perfectly simple. Forget about DJT or any internal US politics.
USD's status as the reserve currency always meant that the rest of the world (which is bigger than USA, no, really it is) would need to be supplied with USD in order to trade, not only with USA, but between each other (petrodollar convention, etc).
Those dollars would be earned by foreigners sending stuff to USA, and if an excess of USD was earnt and held, recycling some of it into Treasuries, or buying assets in the US (Stocks, land, buildings).
Over decades, and free of the peg to gold, this developed into a situation where the USA runs intractable $2T budget deficits, has built up huge debts, and can't compete with other countries when it comes to manufacturing common items like spanners and dolls and cars and ships.
In the last 8 or so years, due to external shocks, the USA has bought its way out of trouble (Stimmies, etc etc) and shown the world that even without an emergency it will continue to print USD rather than balance its budget.
The USA changes its rules (Abolished mark-to-market accounting in March 2009; FED buying low-rated company bonds against its charter; FED now allowing (requiring?) banks to buy unlimited Treasuries) in order to continue printing USD.
The rest of the world can see that is unsustainable.
The rest of the world is reducing its holdings of USD, and swapping to gold in the absence of a better reserve currency than USD. So far.
In time, the USA and USD will be just another, admittedly important, but not exclusively so, country and currency.
The only effect DJT, or any other leader, has on this process is to lengthen or shorten the time, by sweet-talking countries with money, or dissing countries that want to trade bilaterally, without using the USD.
It's happening now.
Forget about USA's internal politics and circus; just look to the former country and reserve currency, the UK and the GBP, and that is where USA is headed. Fast or slow, you can't get off, so try to enjoy the ride.
You only need to enjoy the ride if you're a passenger.
The rest of us will be watching the train wreck from a safe distance, wondering:
Why didn’t they just jump off before it went over the cliff?
Oh, you are correct, Lucas. I was writing for an assumed mostly USA audience.
I got off the train a few years ago, and only hold minimal USD nowadays.
A correction to my earlier comment, (having watched Trump's address to MBS) - for "sweet-talking", read "arse-kissing".
Bonner writes:
"It is on that basis that a whole nation of 330 million people goes along with Mr. Trump’s trade war, when all the evidence — both theoretical and empirical — suggests that it will be a complete fiasco."
The first part of that quote is untrue. As for the second part about the "complete fiasco", Bonner goes on to explain..... er, never mind, he doesn't go on to explain anything. As with the global warming crowd, Bonner uses the "argument from authority" in that he states that "all the evidence...suggests that it will be a complete fiasco." What evidence - Bill doesn't say. This is similar to the global warmers who proclaim that 97% of "mainstream" scientists support the world is warming due to CO2 production from man-made activity. The 97% is completely made up based loosely on selected summaries of papers most of which are not by climate scientists, but by scientists studying certain other phenomena while accepting the global warming hypothesis as a given.
As with so many of his columns, this is just another TDS diatribe. However, I do appreciate the historical summary of info at the beginning of his column, the only facts Bill presents. Unfortunately, it is followed by many assertions without supporting evidence.
Welcome to the typical Weak Day at BPR.
All true, John. Bill seems to be writing his missives while aiming for a less-intelligent, less-informed, less critical audience than he actually has - and that will cause him to lose subscribers, particularly as events and results put "Paid" to the lies, inaccuracies and assumptions. Good thing he doesn't need the money...
https://x.com/profstonge/status/1922977763452977267?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1922977763452977267%7Ctwgr%5Ed70b4271812c02208e264c36c21daf8a6b191db5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.whatfinger.com%2F
Yes. Apparently, he thinks his audience is totally clueless, when only a few are.
Dear Bill, guess what, I am a US consumer at a high level and I am definitely Not paying 30% more for Chinese goods. So if the manufacturer doesn’t eat-it the middleman will.
You may be high-level, but your competitors will still eat your lunch—buying as they always have, and selling at prices you’ll struggle to match, even with tariffs in place. Especially if you’re now trying to replace Chinese suppliers with higher-cost alternatives.
But hey, if you’ve found a way around that reality—something other high-level players can learn from—do tell. We’re all ears.
Shhhhhh. You're lifting the corner of the curtain....
"Based on the minimum wage, an unskilled laborer in Shanghai can expect to make less than $4 per hour...whereas one in Washington DC will make $17. (This is largely because the Fed has inflated wages along with everything else in the U.S. while enabling a huge increase in debt, much of which was used to buy foreign-made goods.)" -- The most important comment in today's drivel
So I ask you Bill, who is the real culprit behind America's plight? Politicians like Trump, or the Fed?
It’s not only the Fed’s tinkering that inflates wages. It’s the “living wage” mantra. Business 101, COGS can’t be greater than what people will pay for products or services. The “real culprit” is meddling politicians generally & specifically.
"Meddling politicians" are part of the problem without question. But all politicians are fairly temporary (notwithstanding a few in D.C.). But guess where all the bad ideas, policies and meddling originate? As a guy that has multiple businesses that serve governmental agencies at the County and Municipal levels, I can tell you that the politicians are merely sheep and the real wolves that come up with all the bad ideas and policies are getting paid stupid salaries and benefits regardless of the results of their ideas and policies . Just like the bureaucrat PHD's that work at the Fed.
Why do you think that things stay so much the same regardless of the intentions of politicians that sincerely want to change them? This is why Trump, Musk et al are being vilified. They are trying to break up the real cabal which is the federal bureaucracy. The true evil that runs the show.
Yes, the Swamp critters!
Stupid people demanding more free stuff from Washington. The day is near when the bill for that "free" stuff will come due. The truth of the matter is the bill is coming due right now. You ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to the demand for more free stuff. Soup lines of the 30's will seem like a buffet. If we have any chance of redemption then the demands on government must stop. How many voters understand this? How many will stop with their demands? Looks like the goose is about out of gas (gold). Ain't free wonderful?
All true, but the demands won't stop until the number of people being paid to meet those demands is reduced by 75%. The world needs ditch diggers too and digging ditches would be a far more productive endeavor for the vast majority of those in the federal government's workforce. Long live DOGE!
Nobody wants to see soup lines, our economy needs to be rejiggered. The sharper the pain the shorter the duration. Many people need to get back to work. They need to be proud of what they do.
"The most important comment in today's drivel" IMHO is BB's on the unsustainable level of US DEBT to which a large part of his piece was devoted.
Why this raises the hackles of so many commentators is hard to understand, but may be attributed to the realisation that our honest and intelligent politicians are unable to reign in spending and that the US empire is exhibiting the same symptoms and signs exhibited before the fall of all empires in history and we have no comfortable solution to the problem
The real culprit is the acceptance of the morality of altruism (which literally means "otherism") which leads to the welfare state - that is, confiscation of resources by force (taxation) from the people who produce to the people who don't. Until this evil, which is accepted by most, is irradicated, we will continue to support people most of whom are capable of supporting themselves. The ones who can't would have to rely on charity. If you want to live in a civilized society, no one has the right to steal from others to support themselves. Once that principle is breached, then just about anything goes and hence, $37T in debt, and in communist countries, millions dead.
The real culprit is simple: spending beyond our means. Nothing more, nothing less.
It started with wars we couldn’t afford—funded not by savings, but by borrowing. Once that door was opened, it became far too easy to tack on more: welfare, Medicaid, Social Security—you name it.
But let’s be honest. The department that lit the fuse—and still fails its audits year after year—is the Defense Department. Compared to its bloated, opaque budget, the rest of the government’s spending is spare change. And unlike welfare programs, it's considered untouchable. Question it, and suddenly you're accused of undermining national security—or worse, staging a coup.
Well said. I've been hoping that Trump would set DOGE amongst the Defense Dept. pigeons because there is no doubt that there is a treasure trove of waste and abuse there. The problem is that would probably get somebody at a high level killed.
Right on, right on, right on!
The debt is a huge problem. The problem with the TDS is that The complaints are that we'll pay thirty percent more for uk products. That is a tax yes. It's a voluntary tax. Enjoy your landrover it's worth it. The new financial playing field would make it easier for U.S manufacturers to compete despite our high wages, high regulatory burden , outrageous legal expense burdens,high welfare state burdens.
Shall see , but at least somebody is doing something.
A question. If crop work doing this what will be happening now? What would be closer to some form of economic redemptio? I realike That that is two questions.
Bill, despite the fact that I really like many of his post and positions never offers a solution, ever.
He did offer a solution. You're either new here… or you forgot what you had for supper—and then circled back to argue with the fridge.
Start here:
https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/clowns-and-jokers?utm_source=publication-search
Thank you for the link to BB's Jokers and Clowns Christmas present where he lays out very practical ways to fix the debt. Essential reading for all his naysayers in this commentariat who accuse him of pessimism without providing solutions.
Pity he wrote this on Christmas when mot of his readers were too full of Christmas cheer to concentrate on this gem
Read it at the time and have it saved on my desktop. It's a wonderful, admirable Christmas DREAM.
Can you point out exactly what part(s) of that most-excellent missive are actually feasible in today's environment? No?? Well let's look at alternative actions that we CAN do that might get us to the same destination. I'll go first -
1. Identify and Cut Theft, Waste and Fraud in ALL government departments - direct savings to paying down the debt.
2. Balance the Trade regimen so that we collect more in Tariffs and open-up otherwise closed markets to American-made products.
3. Unleash the Energy Potential of resources we already have here - make Energy as inexpensive as possible to spur Growth.
4. Drastically reduce Regulations and Taxes so the Producers in our Nation keep more of what they earn to use on Expansion and Consumption.
Sound familiar? It won't if you refuse to step outside of the MSM/BPR bubble...
I agree with 1,3 and 4.
I have problems with 2. Open trade on the age old model of comparative advantage lies at the heart of a good deal . I trade with you for something I can make and buy from you what I need and can afford in other words a win-win deal.
A glaring example would be the US purchase of socks and underwear from Bangladesh who have a labour cost advantage verses selling Cadillacs to a country which lacks the money and the infrastructure to warrant the purchase.
The tariffs collected will be from the US citizen who will be paying more for his underpants The Bangladeshi will not miss his purchase of a Cadillac as he never dreamt of having one.
BTW I have long ago stepped outside the MSM bubble, but still find great satisfaction following the thoughts in the BPR essays and commentary such as yours. The exchange of opinion and debate is invaluable.
I hope you all sent a copy to your Congress Representatives!
Bill, Correct. Bill Bonner doesn't provide practical solutions because I wonder if he is not remotely the man he used to be. I used to think he didn't do so because his ego was too large to be able to take critical analyzes from many of his well-educated, well-informed readers. But over the past year, I'm beginning to wonder.
For example, in today's essay, he asserts there is theoretical and empirical evidence that will show that Pres. Trump's trade war will end up as a fiasco. Then, incredibly, Bill doesn't provide any of the evidence!
Secondly, in the same essay, Bill writes that Pres. Trump disrupts almost everything except things that most need disrupting. A cute turn of phrase, but then he doesn't provide even a short list of the things that need disrupting. You can't make this stuff up.
And this is not the first time over the past year that he has done this pertaining to major matters facing the U.S. He writes about 240 essays every year, and probably employs many assistants. So you would think he could at least ask them to help him with his essays once in awhile.
Nice try. But as I mentioned above to your forgetful friend—Bill has offered solutions. The problem? No politician has the guts to follow through. And perhaps even worse—no real desire to, either.
https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/clowns-and-jokers?utm_source=publication-search
Practical? Maybe not.
Necessary? Absolutely.
Meh - I'd prefer a plan that has Actions that are actually FEASIBLE.
Wish in one hand and poop in the other - let me know which fills up first....
Mr. SE: You nailed it. You provided an EXCELLENT, feasible list of improvements rather than this grandstanding business by Bill, Sen. Paul, Rep. Massie, and some commenters on these daily threads. I think the problem here is that the overwhelming majority of Bill's readers are affluent, well-read, well-educated, older men, like you and me, who either don't care if a depression occurred from--quickly--straightening things out because they and their families/relatives would be able to survive it; or, in spite of their education and reading, don't realize that the trillions the federal govt. spends is not to employ just 3M fed. govt. workers, but an estimated 15M-20M contracted employees such as defense workers (pentagon spending), health care workers (HHS-Medicare & Medicaid spending), and, social workers/dispensers of welfare, in the private sector.
I hope the reason is the latter. So if either party tried to do this quickly, you and I know that party would commit political suicide, and even the members of Congress are not that stupid.
P.S. - I will keep your list and pass it on. I hope you repeat it early in the day so Bill might read it; or, Dan, Tom. or one of Bill's children might read it, and try to get through to Bill, if that's even possible. Ha! Ha!
To median rent an apartment in DC is about $2K per month. At $17 per hour (2000 hours per year) an individual would be paying 2/3 of their income for housing. Did the FED cause the housing crisis or were their other factors?
Same ballpark in Singapore—about $2K/month for a one-bedroom. Unskilled labor there earns around $15/hour, but with far more built-in benefits.
The reality? People adapt. Strangers become roommates. Costs get split. You do what you have to do to survive.
But let’s not kid ourselves—the gap between the haves and have-nots keeps widening. Every single day.
As for the Fed and the housing crisis? It’s part of a bigger pattern: spending more than you earn. That’s where it begins. One more 65" TV on credit… then the bill outpaces the paycheck. Arguments over money. Divorce. Alimony. Lawyers. Bankruptcy. Sometimes worse.
People ask, “Was it the divorce that ruined them?”
No. It was spending beyond their means—on every level.
When things are
Untenable then move. California tried, unsuccessfully, to ban the migrating Okies from leaving the dust bowl. " Not our kind of people."
These were hard working americans. And they actually made california great.
Leave when things are bleak. Take a risk.
From C&C News:
“Trump’s tariffs were supposed to start a new Great Depression. But it is beginning to look like they are kicking off a Great Expansion instead. Fortunately, the experts were wrong again.”
No comment from me needed. Well, one: Mr. Bonner really should cease with what has become a sad, and somewhat pathetic, one-trick-pony hate-Trump sideshow.
https://open.substack.com/pub/coffeeandcovid/p/pipelines-thursday-may-15-2025-c?r=12ghgx&utm_medium=ios
Bonner and his pathetic sycophants will continue to ignore Reality - followed by a massive exit of paying subscribers who didn't want Trump cheerleading, just Fair and Objective analysis. That type of substack is impossible to get here due to personal jealousy and hatred. So sad and a terrible way to close-out an otherwise noteworthy career spent educating people...
Really Sluggo? Is that all you've got?
That article is pure hype.
Forget RFK for a second — let’s talk about that Boeing “$1.2T economic impact” fairytale. The actual deal? Worth up to $96 billion — and that's assuming Qatar pays full retail, which they almost certainly aren't. Realistically, it’s probably closer to $50–65 billion after typical aviation industry discounts.
But retail price headlines look good.
For Trump.
Then, magically, that number gets tossed into an economic blender — add multipliers, decades of projections, supply chain pixie dust — and poof! we’re talking $1.2 trillion in “economic activity.”
What they don’t say out loud is: that $1T is projected over 30+ years.
It’s like bragging you’ll earn a million dollars — on a $50K salary — without mentioning it’ll take you 20 years, and that you can’t spend or get taxed on a penny.
Disingenuous? Absolutely.
But that’s become standard issue with Team Trump: inflate, distort, deflect, repeat.
Yeah, OBiden & Co were sooooo much better.
Not at all. Sad that the only options you had was dumb and dumber.
The truth hurts! What a mess! Ali
I finished season 1 of Outlast last night, and finished season 2 about 2 weeks ago. The show boils down the struggle of human nature with the competing devils and angels trying to guide you.
I also have been watching for some time now how the American middle class wants to be something more, but doesn't want to get it's hands dirty. It wants financial gravity to be defied. The upper class(es) are not wanting any more seats at the table. There just won't be enough to go around for everyone. So there is this top down compression that in pursuit of more $$$ left at the top, has sent jobs elsewhere. This coupled with lower income classes in other country's wanting the same thing we have already.....and they are willing to work for it. All this = manufacturing jobs have left the US and there is more $$$ at the top. DT is in economic la la land thinking the tariffs will solve the problem(s.)
I wear Scarpa boots. They are handmade in northern Italy by, essentially, a COOP of artisans. They are expensive. The workers earn a good wage. Imagine a world where buying local produced the best quality available and a comfortable income for the laborers. Yep, just imagine because it is not going to happen. The world is addicted to low quality cheap goods and big industry is chomping at the bit to supply it. Maybe, if we decided to have less crap in favor of only having high quality, fewer things; maybe if people would take pride in their work and produce only the best quality goods; maybe if the cost of these vs productivity didn't matter so much; that skilled local people could be satisfied with a decent living; maybe.... I better stop. I almost sound like a libtard.
As I get older, no joke, I want fewer things, but I want them the highest quality I can get. I dont care so much for the workers; that is management's problem. I am disgusted with the quantity of disposable everything in our society. Nothing is worth having for very long. Remember, we used to re-bottle cokes, milk, etc. We drank water from the hose instead of Dasani. We didnt have the term micro plastic in our lexicon.
I want a steak that came from a cow that ate in a field. I want a handmade shotgun from Turkey. I want my Scarpa boots, and I want our Fed to stop flushing ourselves down the toilet. I dont want to just Outlast, I want to thrive while I am here.
"After his ‘Liberation Day’ trade war, Trump wisely decided that negotiated settlements were the only way to keep the stock market from collapsing."
You're not a very good strategist Bill and your TDS has you blinded by the light, wrapped up like a deuce another runner in the night.
Negotiations were always intended. Third graders could see it coming. Why couldn't you?
It’s inevitable. Something has to done!
But neither party, Democrat or Republican, will DO anything.
I say just don’t pay it!
Default on the debt.
And start over.
Default is not an option, all those Retirement accounts with government bonds emptied? You will really need guns and ammo!
"The US debt owed to US citizens in their retirement savings is a significant portion of the total national debt. As of 2024, the national debt was approximately $36.2 trillion, with a considerable portion, including securities held by government trust funds, representing obligations to programs like Social Security, which fund retirement benefits according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Specifically, the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund held around $2.6 trillion in securities, which are a form of debt owed to Social Security recipients. "
Are you just guessing? AI says this -
What is the single largest component of the total US retirement market?
With $3.1 trillion, equity funds were the most common type of funds held in 401(k) plans, followed by $1.4 trillion in hybrid funds, which include target date funds. Note: Components may not add to the total because of rounding.
Pension funds lend the US Gov. money by buying bonds so a default on the debt is a default on bonds and bye bye 401(k).
Of all your statements in this morning’s dismissive missive the most galling is your one stating all over the world people are laughing contemptuously at our country. First I don’t believe it and secondly if they are they better be learning Russian or Chinese if America ever fails.
Trump's reception in SA and Qatar sure didn't look like they were laughing - it resembled a level of RESPECT rarely (if ever) shown toward the United States or our President by ANY Country in the Middle East. Just compare the SA King with DJT versus how he "greeted" TraitorJoe. But keep smelling your own farts, Bill.
Bill is being purposefully deceptive and obtusely ignorant about so much Reality and this is inarguable - even if you are one of the commenters here who drools over the continuous insults and half-truths, while seemingly cheering for the worst for our Country and ignoring any positive results from our President.
Facts are Facts, folks - and don't go away when you refuse to acknowledge them....
PS - So how'd it work out for the German Government Officials who publicly laughed at Trump during his address to the UN regarding their dependence on Russian Oil? I have no doubt Bonner was loving that too, but we all saw the results. More Pesky-ass Reality...
And by the way — yes, Trump was right to warn Germany about Russian energy. That clip aged well.
But what does that have to do with him standing next to a Boeing deal he didn’t negotiate?
Being right about one thing doesn’t mean you get to claim credit for everything. Especially when the heavy lifting was done over years by diplomats, executives, and trade reps — not during a handshake and a press flash.
Claiming credit for the Boeing deal is like showing up at a wedding and calling yourself the matchmaker.
So this is "laughing at"? Or maybe just a very shallow illustration of the depth of LIES coming off Mr. Bonner's keyboard....
https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1923062148437016626?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1923062148437016626%7Ctwgr%5E58a349101fc92ebc35ab634a28bd3b2e226fec75%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.whatfinger.com%2F
More spin. Here's what GROK says about that post:
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) committed to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework in the United States, announced by the White House on March 21, 2025.
The framework aims to significantly expand UAE investments in the U.S. economy, focusing on key sectors like AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing.
Sounds impressive — until you scratch the surface.
Scale and Feasibility:
That $1.4 trillion figure amounts to nearly 30% of the UAE's entire annual GDP — every year for a decade. Experts like Neil Quilliam (Chatham House) say it’s more geopolitical theatre than financial reality. It's about signaling alignment with the U.S. over rivals like China — not actually writing trillion-dollar checks.
So once again, we’re looking at "potential cash" from "potential projects."
And how much of it helps reduce the $37 trillion U.S. national debt?
Zero.
What are those things that most need disrupting?
The entire broken system 🤔
Spend less than they make — Balanced budgets. (Good luck with that.)
Protect individual freedoms — Stop forsaking civil liberties like habeas corpus (see: Guantanamo, courtesy of the Patriot Act).
Less government — A half-hearted effort. They’re cutting DEI and education, but leave the real elephant untouched: the Department of Defense, which just got another $100B. More spending... without saving a dime to begin with?
Couldn't agree more.
"‘The Donald’ howls at the moon and disrupts almost everything... except for those things that most need disrupting" What in your cynical mind do you think matters most? Or is that just a convenient way to sell more dribble?
Maybe Bill was in part referring to the Pentagon. Instead of disrupting business as usual Trump is increasing the Pentagon budget. Even Steve Bannon said that the DOGE boys need to cross the Potomac and focus on the Pentagon. Has anyone seen any evidence that Musk's team is auditing the Pentagon, looking for those missing trillions? It's amazing that we spend so much in defense but haven't won a war in most of our lifetimes. Since the Pentagon never passes an audit you would think that cuts in the defense budget would be low hanging fruits.
The dribble-thon continues.....
Bill..there you go again...I know Trump wants his name on all the "final decisions," but let's forget
all of this grandstanding by POTUS and why not focus on what the real brains in the administration
are doing Scott BESSENT?
Because that would require some thought from Bill.