Thou Shalt Not Tariff

Some of Mr. Trump’s tariffs are so peculiar, it’s not clear where they fit into the constitutional structure. They are used as sanctions, punishments, bargaining chips and foreign policy weapons.

Charlton Heston as Moses in The Ten Commandments, 1956, Source: Getty Images

Tuesday, September 9^th, 2025

Bill Bonner, from Paris, France

"I don't give a s**t what you call it."

--Vice President JD Vance, after learning that killing civilians was murder

Poor Donald.

There are two major parts to his program: tariffs and deportations. Both are in trouble with the law. The New York Post:

Federal judge blocks Trump from swiftly deporting illegal immigrants

CBS News:

US may have to refund billions in tariffs, federal judge rules

The legality of Trump’s program is still in doubt. Time:

Supreme Court Allows Trump to Resume Sweeping L.A. Raids

Where the courts will end up, we don’t know. But many of the Trump Team’s moves have been either arguably unconstitutional or clearly over the line. Tariffs are fundamentally a tax on US consumers. But taxation is not up to POTUS; it is one of the things Congress is supposed to take care of.

Some of Mr. Trump’s tariffs are so peculiar, it’s not clear where they fit into the constitutional structure. They are used as sanctions, punishments, bargaining chips and foreign policy weapons. His 50% tariff on India, for example, is meant to punish India (by forcing US consumers to pay more for Indian-made goods) because India didn’t go along with his sanctions on Russia. Is it foreign policy (which is up to the president)...or revenue raising (up to Congress)?

And what about tariffs that are said to fight drug trafficking? Cryptopolitan:

Trump reimposes tariffs on Mexico and Canada, blames drug trafficking

What’s that? Tax policy? Foreign policy? Drug policy?

Then there are the deportations. We are a nation of immigrants. Are we all subject to deportation? Trump said of Rosie O’Donnell, who was born in New York, that her citizenship should be revoked:

She is a Threat to Humanity, and should remain in the wonderful Country of Ireland, if they want her. GOD BLESS AMERICA!

And what about all those illegal aliens? The US legal system is adversarial. If you accuse someone of doing something wrong, you need to give him a chance to prove you wrong. You can’t normally just pick up people at a Home Depot and ship them off.

Apart from the legalities, Trump has another problem. His policies don’t work. US manufacturing jobs have been disappearing for at least a half a century. The US dollar made it relatively cheaper and easier to buy products from abroad, rather than make them at home. And in what was left, productivity increases reduced the need for human labor. Tariffs — especially those that might be struck down by the courts or changed in the next administration — are not going to cause manufacturing to return to the US. Making things in Vietnam, for example, saves an employer more than 90% of his labor costs. Tariffs will cut into US GDP growth and reduce manufacturing employment even further.

Deportations, meanwhile, get rid of surplus labor. But the US, with full employment, has no surplus labor. Removing employees will raise the cost of labor even further and widen the gap between the cost of production in the US as opposed to making things in other countries. It will also hasten the insolvency of Social Security...and bring forward the day (perhaps already past) when, as German Chancellor Merz put it, ‘The welfare state can no longer be financed with what we produce in the economy.’

All of this is well known...and in line with the historical pattern. An aging empire fails financially and militarily. So it was no surprise that Prime Minister Modi, of India, after learning of America’s 50% tariffs, got on the first plane to Beijing. And now, Russia, India, and China form a colossus of land-based power in the Eurasian heartland. Just the kind of enemies America needs, of course...if she is to be knocked from her gold-leafed pedestal.

But even History herself must have been shocked last week. Mr. Trump crossed a brighter, redder line.

Donald Trump says he ordered the killing of the entire crew of a boat that may or may not have been headed to the US, that may or may not have been carrying drugs, that may or may not have been illegal in the US, that may or may not have done harm to the US citizens who may or may not take them.

This is the word JD Vance doesn’t care about. It’s in commandment number six.

In 1919, a constitutional amendment made drinking illegal. Cartels of liquor runners (including one allegedly involving JFK’s father) snuck the demon rum across the border. The Coast Guard was set to work stopping the flow of illegal booze.

Smugglers were arrested. But none was summarily executed. And we know of no case where a bartender was gunned down by federal agents for serving a gin and tonic.

This is something different. Does it mark a big step towards a bad place?

Stay tuned.

Regards,

Bill Bonner

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Market Note, by Tom Dyson

The number of shipping containers arriving at US ports each year has grown relentlessly for six decades — often at double or triple the growth rate of GDP — as US consumers have demanded greater and greater access to the world’s goods.

There have only been two annual declines in inbound container volumes to the US in the six-decade history of container shipping… one in 2009 (the GFC) and the other in 2023 (Covid lockdowns lifted)…and both proved to be very short lived as consumers immediately returned to their old ways.

Here’s the thing, 2025 is now shaping up to be the third annual decline in inbound container volumes.

What does it mean?

Maybe nothing. Or maybe it’s an early recession warning. Trade and capital flows are like the body’s circulatory system. If you block important blood flows, you’ll cause a heart attack. Tariffs are obstacles that block the free flow of capital and goods.

You'd think we'd have learned this after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs were passed in June of 1930. The difference this time is those tariffs added fuel to a stock market crash that was already in motion, whereas these tariffs may turn out to be the catalyst for a stock market correction that seems inevitable (and perhaps even imminent).

Anyway, this decline in container imports looks ominous to me.

(We include container import data in our Doom 2.0 Index, which we publish every month in our premium research service.)