26 Comments

I own a c company that does a lot of business in the trucking industry. In May they significantly cut back on all of their requirements from suppliers via product releases for components, parts, etc. I have been in the transportation industry for many decades and I have never seen such a dramatic cut-back in our orders for our parts. I read once that the transportation industry order volume is an excellent indicator of the economy. When it begins cutting back, it is an early indicator of sales orders and an economy heading downward. Thought you might like to hear that "heads Up".

Gene D

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The Ministry of Truth is getting better at their trade all the time, but they know what their big obstacle is - pesky social media. Since the Disinformation Governance Board was stillborn they have realized that a completely different approach will be needed. This is a big problem and the BOs(Billionaire Oligarchs) are losing patience. Using the courts is a high risk approach as they don’t want a bald faced First Amendment case in front of the Supreme Court. This issue was their biggest miscalculation. Stay informed and stay free.

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So some people like to call a single person "They". What does this mean ? The Gospels give us a clue. For instance in Luke 8, 30 we read: "Jesus asked him, saying, What is thy name? And he said, Legion: because many devils were entered into him." Of course Jesus then went on to expel the devils and allowed them to go into the swine. He healed the sick man of his diabolical multiplicity and destroyed the local economy. Are we going to see something similar in our day ? Maybe. Who knows?

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What do you make of the theory or stance that the gov't interest expense is actually inflationary? I heard this posited the other day, though I can't remember where now. Basically, it may not be as inflationary as money directly to the people, but it's still money back to bond holders and does make its way back into the economy in ever larger amounts. So counterintuitively interest rate increases are not deflationary. And because most businesses and consumers have termed out or fixed rate debt it doesn't hurt them. It's an interesting dynamic and may explain some of the resilience so far.

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Good reporting Bill and all! Old saying: "What goes up, must come down". WHEN, is still a good answer. The WHEN is the sticky part. We are still looking for pics verifying the Hotel pool Fauna attire.

Just Saying! Florida Jimmy.

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Thanks Bill fantastic write up.

Joel keep it coming; " without the labour all you've lft with is BS"

Brilliant! Thanks to BPR

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There will be no hard landing ... there will be no landing at all ... because it will be a crash ... point barre !

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Welcome to MET or Modern Economic Theory. Rule 1 - You own nothing and are happy about it.

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yes all we ever get is BS .. the L is what we do! to many talkers and not enough listeners makes for a noisy world flooded in words that lack any meaning .. oh but were to go to find some solace ..

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...and yet, the Bear Market Rally charges on. Buffet, Fisher, Navellier, Payne, et al, said back in January look for a strong market rebound.

Oh well. Woulda coulda shoulda. Or, as Dandy Don would say, if if’s and but’s were candy and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas.

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With everyone working from home where will they jump from when they lose it all in next crash?

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The following extract from this email

History is useful, which is why we focus on historic macro valuation measures like the Dow/Gold ratio. There’s also a whole other universe of real data from the real economy that tells you what’s really going on. The transport of goods and services through key infrastructure (roads, ports, rails, airports) consumes energy and generates information.

All of this leaves fingerprints, a kind of real-world paper trail (or exhaust fumes). Connect the dots and you have a much more realistic picture of the economic future the stock market is supposed to be discounting.

leads me to suggest it might be a candidate for the "in house - BPR" development of an AI app given the size and scope of the data set(s) involved and the variety of information that could be extracted from it.

Thoughts and comments?

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deletedJul 10, 2023·edited Jul 10, 2023
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deletedJul 10, 2023·edited Jul 10, 2023
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