Major innovations begin by destroying wealth. New tech — from internal combustion engines to dot-coms to AI — offers to cut costs for both consumers and producers. AI may be exceptionally deflationary
There remains much hype in the commercial potential of AI IMO. Keep in mind that we are talking about something that cannot comprehend, cannot discern and cannot think. What it can do may be impressive, but the lack of the aforementioned skills represents more than a glass ceiling. More like a brick wall. Even driverless semis are going to be limited to controlled logistical loops in good weather zones(mainly the southwest) for some time, according to ChatGPT. And with so many career truckers ageing out(retiring) with no human replacement pipeline, AI may be more of a backstop to the transportation industry than a job loss engine. Everyone knows that dealing with software versus a real human being can be exasperating. At some point this is going to become both a customer satisfaction/economic issue as well as a political issue, I believe. I just used the federal government’s new AI software to renew my passport online. The AI photo analyzer kept rejecting my uploaded passport photo, telling me to remove my glasses and retake/upload a new photo. I wasn’t wearing any glasses. Inexplicably, I had the patience to retake and upload 8 photos. The last one, the one accepted, was so bad I was convinced it would be rejected for any number of reasons. I was ready to capitulate and then, voila, my photo was accepted. Welcome to our future in an AI driven world.
Finally, some simple facts pointing out how all this AI nonsense is going to end up a repeat of "dot com bust #2". I'm afraid all this AI stock market wealth is going to go whoosh.
In my opinion the real reason for the huge AI investment and buildout is not to capture commercial opportunities. It is to enable the surveillance state. Digital ID, CBDC, Blockchain transaction clearance, Tokenization of everything, the IoT buildout …all of this is the reason for the data center explosion. The return on investment will come from the tokenization followed by the theft of assets. This may be crisis driven or it may be a slow bleed out of middle class wealth. Time will tell.
That's a good one today and history backs you up. It reminds me of a great quote from Charlie Morris by way of Dan Denning. "Gold is a zero coupon perpetual bond with no credit risk, and no counterparty risk, issued by God." 5000 years of history shows us it has stood the test of time.
Bill, great information for investors today. Again, if you listen closely you can hear the melody of history rhyming, and with it, smart money changing hands, as new and smart money is being made. Oh and yes, our readers, I believe, have provided the antidote for Bill's TDS, as he appears to be on the mend, as evidenced by the great financial insights and the dots forming a pattern once again.
Bill's remarks today -- a forewarning about the likely consequences of AI -- reads as if it's a phenomenon felt only by American workers.
Not. Like a plague, It will start in the most developed countries and eventually affect all of them, but the most backward nations will be among the less affected.
Among the least impacted jobs everywhere will be those that require individuals who work with their hands.
Dentists, plumbers, electricians, physicians, physical therapists, carpet layers, construction trades, pilots, chefs come to mind.
Bill great article but ALL of your 'trolls' will be upset that you're predicting $27 Trillion! might be wiped off the inflated share market crap tables ! oh my what will all those smart investors do to make money ? they might have to compete with the millions of plebs who've lost the work to robots. how will humans generate income to live a lifestyle way above their capacity to sustain?Ah ha so that is where guru Musk comes in with his annual income for everyone ? at different levels of course or do we all get the same amount just enough to spend with our digital masters and suppliers like Amazon Costco etc where our consumption will be regulated monitored for maximum profits and minimal cost to the world's ruling bureaucratic infrastructure ? oh barve new world soo glad I won't be able to serve thee !
There remains much hype in the commercial potential of AI IMO. Keep in mind that we are talking about something that cannot comprehend, cannot discern and cannot think. What it can do may be impressive, but the lack of the aforementioned skills represents more than a glass ceiling. More like a brick wall. Even driverless semis are going to be limited to controlled logistical loops in good weather zones(mainly the southwest) for some time, according to ChatGPT. And with so many career truckers ageing out(retiring) with no human replacement pipeline, AI may be more of a backstop to the transportation industry than a job loss engine. Everyone knows that dealing with software versus a real human being can be exasperating. At some point this is going to become both a customer satisfaction/economic issue as well as a political issue, I believe. I just used the federal government’s new AI software to renew my passport online. The AI photo analyzer kept rejecting my uploaded passport photo, telling me to remove my glasses and retake/upload a new photo. I wasn’t wearing any glasses. Inexplicably, I had the patience to retake and upload 8 photos. The last one, the one accepted, was so bad I was convinced it would be rejected for any number of reasons. I was ready to capitulate and then, voila, my photo was accepted. Welcome to our future in an AI driven world.
Finally, some simple facts pointing out how all this AI nonsense is going to end up a repeat of "dot com bust #2". I'm afraid all this AI stock market wealth is going to go whoosh.
In my opinion the real reason for the huge AI investment and buildout is not to capture commercial opportunities. It is to enable the surveillance state. Digital ID, CBDC, Blockchain transaction clearance, Tokenization of everything, the IoT buildout …all of this is the reason for the data center explosion. The return on investment will come from the tokenization followed by the theft of assets. This may be crisis driven or it may be a slow bleed out of middle class wealth. Time will tell.
That's a good one today and history backs you up. It reminds me of a great quote from Charlie Morris by way of Dan Denning. "Gold is a zero coupon perpetual bond with no credit risk, and no counterparty risk, issued by God." 5000 years of history shows us it has stood the test of time.
I don't expect AI to change the story for gold.
Jim Marshall
Wow, Bill, two in a row without a mention of the Orange Man. Keep up the good work.
I miss the TDS verses the TDS. Love comments on both sides.
Bill, great information for investors today. Again, if you listen closely you can hear the melody of history rhyming, and with it, smart money changing hands, as new and smart money is being made. Oh and yes, our readers, I believe, have provided the antidote for Bill's TDS, as he appears to be on the mend, as evidenced by the great financial insights and the dots forming a pattern once again.
Bill's remarks today -- a forewarning about the likely consequences of AI -- reads as if it's a phenomenon felt only by American workers.
Not. Like a plague, It will start in the most developed countries and eventually affect all of them, but the most backward nations will be among the less affected.
Among the least impacted jobs everywhere will be those that require individuals who work with their hands.
Dentists, plumbers, electricians, physicians, physical therapists, carpet layers, construction trades, pilots, chefs come to mind.
Well said. I like it when you stay in your lane
Little clarification please?
Not Bill or any of the 3 Amigo’s. (Best wishes to them)
But I think he means in real terms.
Nominal terms? Who the hell knows.
Deflationary.? To me headed directly toward Hyperinflation(dollar wise). everything going up dramatically …Commodities, Energy, etc
Bill & Tom..tell me why I’m wrong..
Bill great article but ALL of your 'trolls' will be upset that you're predicting $27 Trillion! might be wiped off the inflated share market crap tables ! oh my what will all those smart investors do to make money ? they might have to compete with the millions of plebs who've lost the work to robots. how will humans generate income to live a lifestyle way above their capacity to sustain?Ah ha so that is where guru Musk comes in with his annual income for everyone ? at different levels of course or do we all get the same amount just enough to spend with our digital masters and suppliers like Amazon Costco etc where our consumption will be regulated monitored for maximum profits and minimal cost to the world's ruling bureaucratic infrastructure ? oh barve new world soo glad I won't be able to serve thee !