The President unveiled his new tariffs, a different one for each country, depending on how successfully it met US consumer demands. The more it offered to US househols, the greater the punishment.
The USA was the most powerful nation in the World after 1945. It was the major manufacturing force, had the most powerful military and the greatest store of gold, which made the dollar the medium of international trade.
Over the years, its power slowly declined. At first, there was more competition in manufacturing as the nations devastated by war recovered. But later, the elite gave in to a fatal temptation. In 1971, they broke the link between the dollar and gold which allowed the money supply to be increased without restraint. At first, this nearly led to disaster as inflation surged and production declined, but by the early 80s, the authorities had managed to control the situation by allowing interest rates to rise unbelievably high.
A boom followed; but in this boom, the ones who made the most money were those employed in financial institutions and to some extent in IT. Those in manufacturing did much less well. Over the years, this encouraged bright young Americans to train for jobs in finance rather than engineering or science. The big money was made by pushing money around.
Later, as China and other Asian countries developed their own modern manufacturing capacity, more and more manufacturing was transferred out of the USA and it became less and less rewarding as a career. US capabilities slowly declined as the older and more experienced people retired and youngsters with less know-how took over; but in some areas, the decline could be quick when industries became uneconomical in the face of foreign competition. The elites didn`t mind that too much. They could still get rich by pushing money around.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the State Department let itself be swayed by a group which advocated applying pressure to Russia by gradually encroaching on its former sphere of influence. War in the Middle East and Asia was also prosecuted with the idea of ensuring that the USA remained able to dominate the World.
In the meantime, Chinese industry became more and more advanced. China began to produce high technology items which could rival or surpass those made in the US. This was applied to both civilian and military projects, so China began to dominate certain fields – electric vehicles for instance. The Chinese navy and air force grew rapidly thanks to the capacity of China`s shipbuilding and aviation industries, and all this backed by advanced, often world-leading, research and development.
Despite all this, the State Department continued its policy of pushing at Russia. In particular they engineered a coup which placed Ukrainian nationalists, extremely hostile to Russia, in charge of Ukraine. The east of the country rebelled and was supported by Russia, and Russia annexed Crimea to protect its naval base.
The State Department and its European allies responded by gradually strengthening the Ukrainian army and using the Minsk accords as a delaying tactic to forestall Russian intervention. All this was accompanied by a sustained and effective propaganda campaign to vilify Russia and Russians. Matters came to a head in 2022 when NATO and the US refused to rule out Ukrainian membership of NATO which the Russians perceived as an existential threat. The Russians invaded but failed to achieve their initial objectives. Peace negotiations started, but the agreement was torpedoed by Boris Johnson and the State Department who persuaded Ukraine to fight on with the promise of Western support: arms, intelligence, and logistics.
As the war progressed, a new group began to gain ground in the State Department. They saw that the war was pushing Russia ever closer to China and that if the trend continued Russia and China between them could dominate Eurasia, which Halford Mackinder had described as the “World Island”. In 1904, Mackinder had foreseen that were China to reassert itself it would come to dominate Eurasia and would build a strong navy to dominate the World. To the new group in the State Department, this seemed to be becoming true before their eyes and they realized that backing Ukraine in the war against Russia was not at all in the interests of the USA. With the advent of Trump, they seem to have swept aside Ukraine`s former backers and those who wanted to pressurize Russia. A new page has been turned.
They also realized that the USA was not what it was during the cold war. It no longer had the research and engineering capacity to remain ahead of its rivals. There was an urgent need to re-direct talent towards research, development, and manufacturing. So, a new economic policy was designed. There would be high tariffs which would protect US manufacturing whilst it recovered its strength. At the same time, these tariffs would trash the financial economy and make it more attractive for clever folk to train as engineers rather than as financiers. There might also be an idea to link eventually the dollar to gold, but that aspect is not at all clear.
A new geopolitical strategy was also developed – the American island as a counter to the World island. Greenland and Canada should be incorporated into the USA to bring this about.
In all this, the leaders of Europe have been totally wrong footed. They seem to be prisoners of their own propaganda and their long-standing policy of hostility to Russia. It could end tragically for Europe. The leaders utter threats against Russia. They say that they will arm themselves over the next five to ten years so that they can fight Russia; but such threats might encourage Russia to attack before they`re ready. It would be better to make peace, but that would mean admitting they had been wrong in the past, something they seem unprepared to do.
My only quibble would be in regards to Chinese advancements in technology. The only reason that was possible is because they STOLE most of it from us/US!
Further, if you don't take the Chinese-disseminated news of these "great advancements" with a YUUUUGE grain of Salt, you probably believe TraitorJoe was the actual President for the last 4 years....
Very well said Mr. Torrance. BPR should interview you to start writing these daily missives. Objectivity, facts and a firm grasp on history, what great concepts!
Nothing I would digress. Just an impression: significant segments sound very familiar to me. Any sources there?
To your last paragraph I'd like to add a grain of salt. This attempt to rearm/repower in Order to attack/defeat Russia has evolved so simultanously there is an orchestra master in play. The idea itself is so stupid (Russia is a most hostile enemy but so friendly and helpful, they wait patiently for the EU to finish their preparation) that in my imagination only "Masters of the Universe" can believe to get that done.
Yes,the cultural shift among smart, young people who before the 80s would have become engineers, scientists, and makers, but instead entered financial technology accounts for a lot of our decline.
Sadly. it continues. A 2024 poll showed the majority of GenZ plans on finding success by becoming Content Creators or Social Media Influencers. Goals, Dreams and Aspirations are becoming more worthless by the generation.
Mr. Star. My wife is a high school guidance counselor and you cannot believe the number of kids who want to be influencers. It’s absolutely insane! These kids are graduating high school barely able to read and write. My wife truly does the best she can with what she has given, but oh my Lord, it is a mess.
The underlying cause of the massive and persistent US trade deficits is the pro-inflation policies of the Fed. Tariffs won’t change this policy.
As Regan era OMB director, David Stockman recently observed, "After China emerged from the destructive shackles of Mao’s rice bowl communism in the 1980s, the Fed’s inflationary policies left US factory workers at risk..."
Their $20/hour wage rate was "no match for the new low-wage industrial work force that emerged from the rice paddies of China, East Asia and other subsistence-based economies."
The beneficiary of this dichotomy was the American consumer. We got to buy affordable, well-made items made in far away places; some in firms owned by US companies that paid tax to the IRS.
With our high wage rates, tariffs won’t make it affordable to on-shore much manufacturing, but they will make more costly nearly anything imported that we buy today.
"We got to buy affordable, well-made items made in far away places"
Wut? Have you ever bought anything besides and MRI machine or a High-heat Viscous Liquid Pump from them? Most everything else is garbage - particularly stuff the average Joe needs to be top quality. Things like tools, drywall, dog food....
PS - If you are feeding your beloved pet (or children) ANYTHING made in the Far East, you are a bad parent....
Mr. SE: So true. As one Breitbart News writer indicated: Americans can simply stop buying junky stuff from China, Vietnam, India, etc. She also pointed out that the tariffs will cause a gradual shift to different types of jobs for Americans, like the globalists told American workers to do when manufacturing moved to low-wage countries. So what's the difference?
She got me thinking about autos and trucks. For years, globalists have indicated that autos and trucks are now of very high quality. This is true. Then, on the other hand, they scream that tariffs will lead to many of these autos not being manufactured as fast as before because of more expensive auto parts imported from other countries. But if the present autos are of such high-quality, then owners can simply drive them for many more years before trading them in. And auto workers can move to the auto maintenance side of the house. But when globalists counter by saying that so many auto workers will then have to be retrained, then I counter that that's what you globalists told manufacturing workers to do when they lost their jobs; e.g., learn computer coding or computer system analysis. So globalists are talking out of both sides of their mouths. It's okay for jobs to be shipped out of the U.S. because Americans will just have to painfully adjust, but not when jobs are brought back to the U.S., or more expensive imports cause Americans to adjust over a transition period to eventually make things better for the middle-class. And at least things will eventually get better for a country (the U.S.) that does not put its citizens in concentration camps or reeducation centers, spreads deadly Fentanyl to other countries killing its citizens, and disappears its citizens if they object to what the government is doing.
This is exactly Bill Bonner: On the one hand, Bill wants the budget to be balanced, apparently in a short period of time, which he knows would cause much suffering among non-rich Americans during a painful transition period. But it would put America on a strong footing going forward. But when it comes to a possibly difficult transition period that tariffs--might--bring, Bill screams loudly that Americans will get hurt very badly before things get much better for the American middle-class. But we all know that if Pres. Trump or PM Netanyahu said black, Bill would say white every time.
Stockman has been totally discredited. You should read the stuff published by the true "Supply Side" economist that taught at Stanford and Georgetown (whose name escapes me at the moment, Paul something, something) that was in Reagan's Treasury Department that fought and defeated the "establishment hacks" Baker and Stockman. The decade and a half of prosperity the world had never seen and hasn't seen since only happened due to this guy and a few others' efforts (none named Stockman). Citing Stockman is a true sign of ignorance.
With our high wage rates, tariffs won’t make it affordable to on-shore much manufacturing, but they will make more costly nearly anything imported that we buy today.
The only way the U.S. can make manufacturing competitive is to automate most all jobs; hence, no great increase in jobs for Americans and most Americans don't want to work in factories. Where the real job growth will be is in SKILLED TRADES, the people who program, design, fix machines. Vocational eduction needs to be created in America.
Back in the 1990's, we were paying our machinist $25-$35/hour and the chinese were paying their employes $1.00/hour and they were running the same CNC machines. Plus the chinese were working 10-12 hour days without overtime pay, zero paid vacations & holidays, low or NO taxes & fees - property, state, city, etc. NO EPA, OSHA, etc. rules & regulations to deal with. You wonder why the U.S. cannot compete? It's basically our government that has over regulated our industries
Thanks to bold new economic strategies straight from the seventh circle of Hell, Amazon Fire Sticks and radios are now proudly Made in America, by broke overqualified PhDs who used to write peer-reviewed articles on post-capitalist eco-theology, but now spend their days shrink-wrapping Bluetooth remotes for $14 an hour.
These human paperweights, saddled with $3,000-a-month mortgages for homes the size of a large storage unit (1 bedroom, 0.5 bath, and a family of 4 sharing one toilet and an existential crisis), are the new face of the American labor renaissance.
Tariffs, of course, have jacked up the cost of components so high that paying them more would collapse the already twitching corpse of the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, their $1,000 car payments are faithfully extracted each month like blood from a stone. Fuel, food, and medical care be damned.
Who needs insulin when you can stream reruns of The Office in HD?
All the while, the administration, those elected demigods of dysfunction are too busy licking caviar off gold-plated spoons at courtside NBA games to notice the nation has become a slow-motion breadline.
They sip champagne from crystal flutes shaped like middle fingers and wipe with currency more valuable than most Americans’ retirement accounts.
Wall Street, once fueled by ambition and cocaine, now runs on delusion and vibes. The stock market is poised to detonate in a supernova of inflation, despair, and unpaid credit card bills, ushering in not just a recession, but the Great American Faceplant.
By the time the average citizen gets one guilt-free night out without checking their bank app first, their kids will be grown, their dreams cremated, and death will be politely tapping them on the shoulder asking, “You done yet?”
Ahhh, “Star Man,” day drinker extraordinaire, defender of the midday buzz and honorary captain of the Firewater Express.
I didn’t mean to kill your vibe, bruh, I was just trying to throw a little philosophical judo into your barstool enlightenment.
You’re living the good ol’ days in real-time, and I respect the hustle: Master’s degree in economics, half a PhD application, stoned off your ass with a bottle of Firewater like it’s your emotional support flask. That’s not day drinking, that’s performance art.
Now do me a favor: look to your left, nod respectfully to the jukebox, and sacrifice $5 to the gods of nostalgia. Play “Hells Bells,” let it summon the spirits, follow it with “Santeria,” then chase it all down with a shot of Jäger to unlock that ancient “Drunken Monkey” kung fu mode.
And yeah, maybe you’re technically an “old man” by Gen Z standards, but your mind’s sharper than a Vulcan’s tax return.
Neuralink’s got your back, and when Sir Musk finally downloads us into the Pentagon Vector Vault, you and I are gonna be immortal snark-beacons in the digital afterlife, haunting Spotify playlists and whispering unsolicited life advice through Bluetooth speakers across the multiverse.
Now drink up and power on, brother, we got eternal consciousness to prepare for. Cheers. 😃🔱🤩
Hmmm......I am starting earlier and earlier too.......the world is a-changin' and who knows when or how. Just going to be a real $#&%show I am afraid. Partial to White Claw in the morning...........
Egypt, extremely interesting but you are way too much of an optimist. Really - only $1000 car payments? Surely, the elites are ONLY focused on what is good for America and us peons/minions who are awed by their genius and wisdom. Especially those in the hallow halls of Congress. Pelosi and the Gang are slaving day and night to "fix" America and Make It Great Again. As anyone given any thought to "what" made America Great? No? It wasn't our genius......No clue? Maybe that is what Trump is creating again. Just saying.......
Well, said Mr. Egypt. Although in the summers as a kid, we did have 13 people in my house. With one bathroom that was made in a closet. Man, what great times!
Tariffs are a dangerous thing. The Flying Frisby, on Substack, made that clear; when you hear truth there is a slim possibility you will recognize it. He said it was tariffs that caused the Civii War, not Slavery. Tariffs helped the North, hurt the South; the South was paying 75% of the tariff revenue. When Lincoln was elected, a tariff supporter, and The South lost its control in Congress, they succeeded.
JD Vance is a demonstration of how Americans have been destroyed by the system that has eroded American industry. Read “Hillbilly Elegy.” Also a demonstration of how much America has lost from a human potential point of view. He “Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.”
57,000 industrial plants have been closed down, townes and all the attendant businesses lost. Our dependence is unconscionable and dangerous. How do we produce weapons? We can’t even produce masks or antibiotics.
I think Bill hates Americans; he seems to have no empathy.
He quotes trite contrived articles from suspect sources; sources he has denigrated in the past. European Elite created the European Common Market to compete against America, in a way to combine for an advantage to destroy America. To quote these bureaucrats is ludicrous.
Hitler invaded Russia because it was part of his plan written in MeinKampf, expand Germany East for agriculture and resources. The invasion failed on a front from St Petersburg to the Crimea, he then, in desperation, repositioned to Stalingrad, he had no oil. It was not crazy, with the US in the war, with its vast industrial might, it was his only hope. The Russians destroyed Hitler, and they produced their own weapons, and their tanks and aircraft were better.
History and economics are a complicated subject, Bill is getting simplistic.
If you want simple, America is dead without change; Trump is the last great hope.
Hurrah Trump!
Something I wrote in another post: “America is a difficult place to govern. It is not a democracy, an elite rules, using lies and psychological manipulation. Trump has faced great obstacles, for eight years, the entire establishment hates him, uses every resource to destroy him; they control the media, constantly bombard him negatively, used the judiciary. Yet, with a popular vote, an unprecedented canvassing of America he has persevered and won. He is a serious man. One of the most consequential men in American history.”
I feel that Trumps plan is to de-fund the Chinese.
I worked for a chemical company that found itself in direct competition with the Chinese. My employer was the largest in the world in this market space. At the beginning, our motto was to 'sell at any cost' just to keep the Chinese from getting funded. Their product was inferior both chemically and performance wise, but over time, as they slowly sold product for very low prices, they were able to raise enough capital to invest in their process and people. Eventually their quality and performance matched the products that I was selling. This led to rapid price decreasing - a commoditization of the product stream. In the interim, my employer lobbied for and received tariff protections in the US against the Chinese made product of 25%. This slowed but did not kill the Chinese growth in the marketplace.
The Chinese are now well represented in the market, taking roughly 60% of the sales in the regions that I am familiar with, doing so using local people to represent them, meaning that they are taking even less profit then the non-Chinese manufacturers, who tend to go direct to the large end-users. But they are thriving. How can they do this? By investing in automation and process control on the manufacturing side, and building local relationships on the distribution side (primarily centered around low supply cost). They continued to invest in manufacturing well past the point where the original manufacturers stopped.
I think that Trump is underestimating how difficult it is to de-fund the Chinese.
If the EU is moving to China vs the US in response to Trumps tactics, it is simply because they believe that the Chinese, at least in the short term, can provide low-cost products, and supply raw materials that the US can't. It isn't about cultural similarities. It is about necessity and money. The US needs to be STRENGTHENING trade relationships with it's allies, while attacking the Chinese. Maybe that is Trumps intent, but he started the process awkwardly if it is.
For the record I supported Trump vs Harris, at least because he was the lesser of two evils. But also because I believe in what he is trying to do, from cutting waste, to MAHA. In this case, I think that he is stumbling. Not because of the stock market (I have lots of land and gold) but because of the lack of a firm direction, and clarity on what the plan is (although that may because he doesn't want to tip his hand). It gives one the impression that his plan wasn't well thought out. Go Trump, I have faith that you can sort this out.
Very likely accurate, but I'd reckon that the EU will end up getting burned by a Dependence Relationship with China, just like the US has. Definitely burned in areas different than where we got burned, but it's the EU. Losers gonna lose, pretty much no matter what...
PS - I worked for a very short time between College and the US Army as a Florida Rep for Hill Manufacturing in Atlanta (don't know if they're still in business.) Cold walking into a local plant or factory and listening for the guy with all the keys jangling off his belt - ah, those were the days...
One thing is CERTAIN - both Europe and China 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 access to the US market to survive at their current standard of living - it is inarguable. Hmmmm - then there's this:
Puh-lease, Bill. You are employing the tired leftist ploy of "playing dumb" - in this instance about the mechanics and goals of what Trump is trying to do, while simultaneously preaching worst case scenarios arrived at by rectal retrieval. The leftarded do this quite frequently on an array of subjects when they realize the pillars holding up their "logic and conclusions" are, in reality, cracked and weak - we have seen it often from commenters on these very boards. It is a tactic employed to Deflect or sometimes Deny - only used in place of 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘤 criticisms or derision.
Bill's a sharp guy - he knows EXACTLY what Trump is doing, and contrary to what he feeds us on the daily, facts are pesky things regarding the "Trade War" being hyped now. The specifics have been spelled out (for any halfwit to understand), how the strategy could very well work has been explained (Bill conveniently ignores the Historical results of past Tariff actions and tax cuts), and the intended results have been clearly defined (we're seeing them begin to ripen now.) But Bonner won't go there in his missives - it would show that Trump actually has a solid, well-thought out Plan and is instituting very clear actions to reach the end goals - but Bill can't stomach that, nor can he have his readers begin to see the Wisdom of what Trump is doing re. Trade. Very soon preliminary results will be undeniable and only the committed America Haters will be ignoring Reality while trying to stay relevant - as they always do.
Keep chirping Bill - your jealous denials and attempts to belittle are laughably entertaining...
All very interesting. I don’t remember anyone, especially the left, bitching in 2022 when under Biden’s presidency NASDAQ dropped 32%, S&P dropped 18%. I surely don’t know where all this is going, but deporting criminals, and defending Americans, seem like good idea to me.
Hmmm. I also don’t remember anyone asking why our borders should be open or why pro-lifers are terrorists, or why convicted felons should be allowed to come in while whole cities of American tax payers were devastatingly locked down.
We know how the country did in Trump’s first term and how it did under whoever was running things for Biden.
That was an excellent article - fully worth the price of admission (as opposed to BPR.)
There are many great, factual points to choose from, but I especially liked:
"Stopping dead the flow of low-value illegal immigrants enormously improves the life possibilities for ordinary Americans, as demonstrated by March 2025’s job numbers, which showed 329,000 job gains for the native-born from February, more than the 228,000 overall jobs increase. "
Just a question. Has anybody thought of the cost to negotiate with all the countries of this world? If there are 5-10 to negotiate at one time , are there enough "brains" to accommodate?
Bill quotes from a nbr of sources in this article; but, the one about the European's getting together with China to develop a fair and free trading system is the biggest joke of the year. Considering Communist China's golden rule of "the end justifies the means" (which they have followed religiously). "fair" and "free" have the least meaning in their vocabulary. This would be like leaving one bed that has a mild mannered rattlesnake to another bed having 2 or 3 ill tempered Black Mambas.
You beat me to the punch Kenneth! I was thinking the same thing when Bill quoted Ursela V. and Europe running to Chiner for a “level playing field and free and fair trade agreement”! Gee, I wonder where I’ve heard that before?!?!? 🤣😂
The big picture Trump's tariff's have increased volatility in the stock market and crypto. Those who bailed from trophy assets provided a gift to those who bought. The stock and crypto exchanges like nothing better than lots of buying and selling activity.
I'm up over 300% maybe I should write a newsletter. I'll name it, "Buy Low Sell High". something retail investors never seem to learn. If you're down sell, take the tax write off and buy lower to recover the loss when good assets once again appreciate.
If you don't harbor an irrational, immature, unending hatred of Donald Trump that would color pretty much everything you think or write - I say go for it.
We already have a newsletter that completely accomplishes the first part...
Sounds like one of the better propaganda pieces I've read in a few years. Very well done. BUT Ray Dahlio says tariffs are not the primary problem, it's unaffordable debt and a monetary order which must change.
Remember when Nancy Pelosi, in another galaxy, long, long ago, was Speaker of the House? Then-Speaker Pelosi led the pact of many "patriotic citizens", eager to instruct the public about the dialectic of hubris and nemesis, joyful compilations of “Hollywood celebrities, ditto-head news readers and Democratic politicians intoning that party line.”
In Spectator US, Roger Kimball describes how the impossible mutated to “the walls are closing in.” If it weren’t “Russia, Russia, Russia,” then it was Stormy Daniels.
… the entertainment committee was on the job, and many “walls-are-closing-in” compilations flooded the internet for fun but NO profit.
NGO = Parallel Government (The Swamp-?)
Elon Musk, Trump’s point man for DOGE, has revealed the truth about NGOs. “non-governmental organization,” actually means “nurturing governmental officialdom,” i.e., diverting taxpayer dollars for oneself, one’s relatives, and people who can do you some favors. Which is to say that the “non” in “NGO” really means “all” or “limitless.”
One canny commentator on X observed, “Over the last few months, we’ve come to a realization that should have landed much harder: NGOs weren’t just adjacent to government, they were the parallel government.” (or the Government SWAMP)
Over the last few months, we’ve come to a realization that should have landed much harder: NGOs weren’t just adjacent to government, they were the parallel government. We were shocked. I was too. But looking back, it’s exactly what you’d expect. NGOs operate outside the chain of… https://t.co/xNu8jZKDzt
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) April 13, 2025
NGOs, continues Mr. Kimball, operate out of the chain of command.
They answer to no electorate, no oversight, no public mandate. They can push any agenda they choose WITHOUT accountability.
The moment Biden took office, the plan was already in motion. NGOs had the infrastructure, the logistics, the funding pipelines; everything ready to go. They didn’t need permission. They just needed POWER. And when they got it, they had it all set up from day one: overnight, we were flooded with illegal immigrants (Aliens) under the cover of a coordinated strategy that had been waiting in the wings.
Well, guess what? Donald Trump has upended that apple cart. If you care about fiscal sanity, accountability, and transparency, you welcome the rehabilitation. Unfortunately for those who made a living off exploiting the corruption the status quo allowed, this plunge into chaos is into an “outer darkness.”
It is almost amusing to see the reaction from the “public-teat sucking public class.”
Donald Trump announces a raft of tariffs to return critical industries to the United States and to level the economic playing field. The markets weep for a few days.
One by one, countries line up to make a deal with the world’s largest economy. At last count, some 90 countries have signaled their intention to trim the tariffs and other trade barriers they have erected against America.
Even China is making some agreeable noises. Trump has responded by delaying the imposition of certain tariffs, a canny bit of flexibility that the anti-Trump chorus has denounced as “panic.”
Headlines scream, “No One Is Buying the White House Spin.” But in fact, countries are lining up to buy it, and it’s no spin, it’s negotiation.
Investor Bill Ackman speaks, “A willingness to adjust a strategy based on new facts and data is a sign of the strength of a leader. It is not an indication of weakness.”
Roger Kimball continues:
Trump secured an “historic” deal with Panama to push out the Chinese from control of the canal and restore America’s priority.
Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury, is in Argentina to finalize talks with President Javier Milei. “Team Trump is firing on all cylinders. The pace is dizzying,” lauds Mr. Kimball.
According to yesterday’s news sources, yes. “Trump trade team chases 90 deals in 90 days,” scoffs Reuters.
“Experts say good luck with that. ”Experts, eh? Poor dears. They may call it “chaos.”
EXCELLENT post. And there is room and reason for Optimism. It appears that the Congress may have started to pull their heads from between their buttocks and listen to the DOGE Ditty:
Bill: I agree with some of what you are saying. I disagree on the back and forth of the tariff issue. NEGOTIATING is part of deal making. You go back and forth until there is a middle that is acceptable to both parties. I once learned years ago that a deal is fair when:
1. Both parties are happy
2. Both parties are unhappy
It is a bad deal if one party is happy and the other unhappy.
Trump is proving that he is masterful at playing both arsonist and firefighter. Further destruction of capital markets and business confidence incoming…
That’s right! All I need to do is ignore fundamental business analysis and capital flow patterns and embrace the wisdom in some crackpot Youtube video and all will be revealed! Embrace the second coming of authoritarian clap trap and bring back those jobs of sweatshops making T shirts and screwing in those tiny screws for 10 hours a day! I am all in!!!
" fundamental business analysis and capital flow patterns"
Cause those NEVER change.
Videos (hundreds of them) filmed by native Chinese business people engaged in Commerce inside China represent a "crackpot" point of view. And the dozens of idle/empty factories shown in multitudes of these videos must all be staged, because your expert interpretation of "fundamental business analysis and capital flow patterns" yields the unquestionable "fact" that the Trump tariffs just couldn't be working, amIright? Pretty simplistic view, perfesssser.
There is ONE of us doing a hefty amount of Ignoring, so you got that part right...
Cmon Bill, you are a very smart guy and you know what he’s trying to do. He wants manufacturing back in the US. He wants the independence from China. He wants the jobs back here and the prosperity that creates .
Trump doesn't understand the first (or the second or third) issue about currencies and how they relate to trade.
Currencies are used in trade so that we don't have to work with barter systems worldwide. They are also used to allow for nations to produce things that they have a relative advantage in the end product. However, Trump thinks the US maintains a relative advantage in provocation, financing, and complaining: We provoke other nations to not want to do business with us, then finance their factories, and then complain when they send the essential products elsewhere. All the while forcing them to use our dollars to buy things in international markets.
Additionally, the whole concept of trade deficits is relative. It does not mean that other nations are taking advantage of us; it means that we are able to produce things of higher value here instead of wasting resources producing trinkets that we can get for pennies from somewhere else. And we get usable goods (and some useless junk), while others get our dollars, which keep their banks afloat. That is, until they start buying gold with those dollars.
Thoughts on the State Department
The USA was the most powerful nation in the World after 1945. It was the major manufacturing force, had the most powerful military and the greatest store of gold, which made the dollar the medium of international trade.
Over the years, its power slowly declined. At first, there was more competition in manufacturing as the nations devastated by war recovered. But later, the elite gave in to a fatal temptation. In 1971, they broke the link between the dollar and gold which allowed the money supply to be increased without restraint. At first, this nearly led to disaster as inflation surged and production declined, but by the early 80s, the authorities had managed to control the situation by allowing interest rates to rise unbelievably high.
A boom followed; but in this boom, the ones who made the most money were those employed in financial institutions and to some extent in IT. Those in manufacturing did much less well. Over the years, this encouraged bright young Americans to train for jobs in finance rather than engineering or science. The big money was made by pushing money around.
Later, as China and other Asian countries developed their own modern manufacturing capacity, more and more manufacturing was transferred out of the USA and it became less and less rewarding as a career. US capabilities slowly declined as the older and more experienced people retired and youngsters with less know-how took over; but in some areas, the decline could be quick when industries became uneconomical in the face of foreign competition. The elites didn`t mind that too much. They could still get rich by pushing money around.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the State Department let itself be swayed by a group which advocated applying pressure to Russia by gradually encroaching on its former sphere of influence. War in the Middle East and Asia was also prosecuted with the idea of ensuring that the USA remained able to dominate the World.
In the meantime, Chinese industry became more and more advanced. China began to produce high technology items which could rival or surpass those made in the US. This was applied to both civilian and military projects, so China began to dominate certain fields – electric vehicles for instance. The Chinese navy and air force grew rapidly thanks to the capacity of China`s shipbuilding and aviation industries, and all this backed by advanced, often world-leading, research and development.
Despite all this, the State Department continued its policy of pushing at Russia. In particular they engineered a coup which placed Ukrainian nationalists, extremely hostile to Russia, in charge of Ukraine. The east of the country rebelled and was supported by Russia, and Russia annexed Crimea to protect its naval base.
The State Department and its European allies responded by gradually strengthening the Ukrainian army and using the Minsk accords as a delaying tactic to forestall Russian intervention. All this was accompanied by a sustained and effective propaganda campaign to vilify Russia and Russians. Matters came to a head in 2022 when NATO and the US refused to rule out Ukrainian membership of NATO which the Russians perceived as an existential threat. The Russians invaded but failed to achieve their initial objectives. Peace negotiations started, but the agreement was torpedoed by Boris Johnson and the State Department who persuaded Ukraine to fight on with the promise of Western support: arms, intelligence, and logistics.
As the war progressed, a new group began to gain ground in the State Department. They saw that the war was pushing Russia ever closer to China and that if the trend continued Russia and China between them could dominate Eurasia, which Halford Mackinder had described as the “World Island”. In 1904, Mackinder had foreseen that were China to reassert itself it would come to dominate Eurasia and would build a strong navy to dominate the World. To the new group in the State Department, this seemed to be becoming true before their eyes and they realized that backing Ukraine in the war against Russia was not at all in the interests of the USA. With the advent of Trump, they seem to have swept aside Ukraine`s former backers and those who wanted to pressurize Russia. A new page has been turned.
They also realized that the USA was not what it was during the cold war. It no longer had the research and engineering capacity to remain ahead of its rivals. There was an urgent need to re-direct talent towards research, development, and manufacturing. So, a new economic policy was designed. There would be high tariffs which would protect US manufacturing whilst it recovered its strength. At the same time, these tariffs would trash the financial economy and make it more attractive for clever folk to train as engineers rather than as financiers. There might also be an idea to link eventually the dollar to gold, but that aspect is not at all clear.
A new geopolitical strategy was also developed – the American island as a counter to the World island. Greenland and Canada should be incorporated into the USA to bring this about.
In all this, the leaders of Europe have been totally wrong footed. They seem to be prisoners of their own propaganda and their long-standing policy of hostility to Russia. It could end tragically for Europe. The leaders utter threats against Russia. They say that they will arm themselves over the next five to ten years so that they can fight Russia; but such threats might encourage Russia to attack before they`re ready. It would be better to make peace, but that would mean admitting they had been wrong in the past, something they seem unprepared to do.
My only quibble would be in regards to Chinese advancements in technology. The only reason that was possible is because they STOLE most of it from us/US!
Further, if you don't take the Chinese-disseminated news of these "great advancements" with a YUUUUGE grain of Salt, you probably believe TraitorJoe was the actual President for the last 4 years....
AbsoFreakingLutely!!!
☝️this
Very well said Mr. Torrance. BPR should interview you to start writing these daily missives. Objectivity, facts and a firm grasp on history, what great concepts!
Thanks for an exceptionally valuable comment!
Welcome
Nothing I would digress. Just an impression: significant segments sound very familiar to me. Any sources there?
To your last paragraph I'd like to add a grain of salt. This attempt to rearm/repower in Order to attack/defeat Russia has evolved so simultanously there is an orchestra master in play. The idea itself is so stupid (Russia is a most hostile enemy but so friendly and helpful, they wait patiently for the EU to finish their preparation) that in my imagination only "Masters of the Universe" can believe to get that done.
Greetings to Klaus and friends.
Yes,the cultural shift among smart, young people who before the 80s would have become engineers, scientists, and makers, but instead entered financial technology accounts for a lot of our decline.
Sadly. it continues. A 2024 poll showed the majority of GenZ plans on finding success by becoming Content Creators or Social Media Influencers. Goals, Dreams and Aspirations are becoming more worthless by the generation.
True story. *insert eye roll here...
Mr. Star. My wife is a high school guidance counselor and you cannot believe the number of kids who want to be influencers. It’s absolutely insane! These kids are graduating high school barely able to read and write. My wife truly does the best she can with what she has given, but oh my Lord, it is a mess.
Excellent
The underlying cause of the massive and persistent US trade deficits is the pro-inflation policies of the Fed. Tariffs won’t change this policy.
As Regan era OMB director, David Stockman recently observed, "After China emerged from the destructive shackles of Mao’s rice bowl communism in the 1980s, the Fed’s inflationary policies left US factory workers at risk..."
Their $20/hour wage rate was "no match for the new low-wage industrial work force that emerged from the rice paddies of China, East Asia and other subsistence-based economies."
The beneficiary of this dichotomy was the American consumer. We got to buy affordable, well-made items made in far away places; some in firms owned by US companies that paid tax to the IRS.
With our high wage rates, tariffs won’t make it affordable to on-shore much manufacturing, but they will make more costly nearly anything imported that we buy today.
"We got to buy affordable, well-made items made in far away places"
Wut? Have you ever bought anything besides and MRI machine or a High-heat Viscous Liquid Pump from them? Most everything else is garbage - particularly stuff the average Joe needs to be top quality. Things like tools, drywall, dog food....
PS - If you are feeding your beloved pet (or children) ANYTHING made in the Far East, you are a bad parent....
Mr. SE: So true. As one Breitbart News writer indicated: Americans can simply stop buying junky stuff from China, Vietnam, India, etc. She also pointed out that the tariffs will cause a gradual shift to different types of jobs for Americans, like the globalists told American workers to do when manufacturing moved to low-wage countries. So what's the difference?
She got me thinking about autos and trucks. For years, globalists have indicated that autos and trucks are now of very high quality. This is true. Then, on the other hand, they scream that tariffs will lead to many of these autos not being manufactured as fast as before because of more expensive auto parts imported from other countries. But if the present autos are of such high-quality, then owners can simply drive them for many more years before trading them in. And auto workers can move to the auto maintenance side of the house. But when globalists counter by saying that so many auto workers will then have to be retrained, then I counter that that's what you globalists told manufacturing workers to do when they lost their jobs; e.g., learn computer coding or computer system analysis. So globalists are talking out of both sides of their mouths. It's okay for jobs to be shipped out of the U.S. because Americans will just have to painfully adjust, but not when jobs are brought back to the U.S., or more expensive imports cause Americans to adjust over a transition period to eventually make things better for the middle-class. And at least things will eventually get better for a country (the U.S.) that does not put its citizens in concentration camps or reeducation centers, spreads deadly Fentanyl to other countries killing its citizens, and disappears its citizens if they object to what the government is doing.
This is exactly Bill Bonner: On the one hand, Bill wants the budget to be balanced, apparently in a short period of time, which he knows would cause much suffering among non-rich Americans during a painful transition period. But it would put America on a strong footing going forward. But when it comes to a possibly difficult transition period that tariffs--might--bring, Bill screams loudly that Americans will get hurt very badly before things get much better for the American middle-class. But we all know that if Pres. Trump or PM Netanyahu said black, Bill would say white every time.
Stockman has been totally discredited. You should read the stuff published by the true "Supply Side" economist that taught at Stanford and Georgetown (whose name escapes me at the moment, Paul something, something) that was in Reagan's Treasury Department that fought and defeated the "establishment hacks" Baker and Stockman. The decade and a half of prosperity the world had never seen and hasn't seen since only happened due to this guy and a few others' efforts (none named Stockman). Citing Stockman is a true sign of ignorance.
I'm expecting BB and Mr. Roberts to bolster their BS by quoting Paul Krugman and Jim Cramer any day now...
Paul Craig Roberts
With our high wage rates, tariffs won’t make it affordable to on-shore much manufacturing, but they will make more costly nearly anything imported that we buy today.
Wrong - and if not, it will be a very temporary phenomenon, applicable to very limited products....
The only way the U.S. can make manufacturing competitive is to automate most all jobs; hence, no great increase in jobs for Americans and most Americans don't want to work in factories. Where the real job growth will be is in SKILLED TRADES, the people who program, design, fix machines. Vocational eduction needs to be created in America.
I think his surname was Roberts.
Bingo! Thanks.
Back in the 1990's, we were paying our machinist $25-$35/hour and the chinese were paying their employes $1.00/hour and they were running the same CNC machines. Plus the chinese were working 10-12 hour days without overtime pay, zero paid vacations & holidays, low or NO taxes & fees - property, state, city, etc. NO EPA, OSHA, etc. rules & regulations to deal with. You wonder why the U.S. cannot compete? It's basically our government that has over regulated our industries
Good comment. I guess the question now is: can we trust the state department, or have any faith in them at this point?
Thanks to bold new economic strategies straight from the seventh circle of Hell, Amazon Fire Sticks and radios are now proudly Made in America, by broke overqualified PhDs who used to write peer-reviewed articles on post-capitalist eco-theology, but now spend their days shrink-wrapping Bluetooth remotes for $14 an hour.
These human paperweights, saddled with $3,000-a-month mortgages for homes the size of a large storage unit (1 bedroom, 0.5 bath, and a family of 4 sharing one toilet and an existential crisis), are the new face of the American labor renaissance.
Tariffs, of course, have jacked up the cost of components so high that paying them more would collapse the already twitching corpse of the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, their $1,000 car payments are faithfully extracted each month like blood from a stone. Fuel, food, and medical care be damned.
Who needs insulin when you can stream reruns of The Office in HD?
All the while, the administration, those elected demigods of dysfunction are too busy licking caviar off gold-plated spoons at courtside NBA games to notice the nation has become a slow-motion breadline.
They sip champagne from crystal flutes shaped like middle fingers and wipe with currency more valuable than most Americans’ retirement accounts.
Wall Street, once fueled by ambition and cocaine, now runs on delusion and vibes. The stock market is poised to detonate in a supernova of inflation, despair, and unpaid credit card bills, ushering in not just a recession, but the Great American Faceplant.
By the time the average citizen gets one guilt-free night out without checking their bank app first, their kids will be grown, their dreams cremated, and death will be politely tapping them on the shoulder asking, “You done yet?”
🤩😃😭😂🤣🔱🐦⬛😱🤩
You're killin' my day-drinker buzz, Gypt...
Ahhh, “Star Man,” day drinker extraordinaire, defender of the midday buzz and honorary captain of the Firewater Express.
I didn’t mean to kill your vibe, bruh, I was just trying to throw a little philosophical judo into your barstool enlightenment.
You’re living the good ol’ days in real-time, and I respect the hustle: Master’s degree in economics, half a PhD application, stoned off your ass with a bottle of Firewater like it’s your emotional support flask. That’s not day drinking, that’s performance art.
Now do me a favor: look to your left, nod respectfully to the jukebox, and sacrifice $5 to the gods of nostalgia. Play “Hells Bells,” let it summon the spirits, follow it with “Santeria,” then chase it all down with a shot of Jäger to unlock that ancient “Drunken Monkey” kung fu mode.
And yeah, maybe you’re technically an “old man” by Gen Z standards, but your mind’s sharper than a Vulcan’s tax return.
Neuralink’s got your back, and when Sir Musk finally downloads us into the Pentagon Vector Vault, you and I are gonna be immortal snark-beacons in the digital afterlife, haunting Spotify playlists and whispering unsolicited life advice through Bluetooth speakers across the multiverse.
Now drink up and power on, brother, we got eternal consciousness to prepare for. Cheers. 😃🔱🤩
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKc_Ej8RiVs
One of the most underrated on the whole album, IMHO....
Hey Brother are you busy on October 11 of this year?
Check your substack direct messages....
Hmmm......I am starting earlier and earlier too.......the world is a-changin' and who knows when or how. Just going to be a real $#&%show I am afraid. Partial to White Claw in the morning...........
“You're killin' my day-drinker buzz,…” Bwaaahahahaha
Egypt, extremely interesting but you are way too much of an optimist. Really - only $1000 car payments? Surely, the elites are ONLY focused on what is good for America and us peons/minions who are awed by their genius and wisdom. Especially those in the hallow halls of Congress. Pelosi and the Gang are slaving day and night to "fix" America and Make It Great Again. As anyone given any thought to "what" made America Great? No? It wasn't our genius......No clue? Maybe that is what Trump is creating again. Just saying.......
Good reply
Well, said Mr. Egypt. Although in the summers as a kid, we did have 13 people in my house. With one bathroom that was made in a closet. Man, what great times!
Tariffs are a dangerous thing. The Flying Frisby, on Substack, made that clear; when you hear truth there is a slim possibility you will recognize it. He said it was tariffs that caused the Civii War, not Slavery. Tariffs helped the North, hurt the South; the South was paying 75% of the tariff revenue. When Lincoln was elected, a tariff supporter, and The South lost its control in Congress, they succeeded.
JD Vance is a demonstration of how Americans have been destroyed by the system that has eroded American industry. Read “Hillbilly Elegy.” Also a demonstration of how much America has lost from a human potential point of view. He “Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.”
57,000 industrial plants have been closed down, townes and all the attendant businesses lost. Our dependence is unconscionable and dangerous. How do we produce weapons? We can’t even produce masks or antibiotics.
I think Bill hates Americans; he seems to have no empathy.
He quotes trite contrived articles from suspect sources; sources he has denigrated in the past. European Elite created the European Common Market to compete against America, in a way to combine for an advantage to destroy America. To quote these bureaucrats is ludicrous.
Hitler invaded Russia because it was part of his plan written in MeinKampf, expand Germany East for agriculture and resources. The invasion failed on a front from St Petersburg to the Crimea, he then, in desperation, repositioned to Stalingrad, he had no oil. It was not crazy, with the US in the war, with its vast industrial might, it was his only hope. The Russians destroyed Hitler, and they produced their own weapons, and their tanks and aircraft were better.
History and economics are a complicated subject, Bill is getting simplistic.
If you want simple, America is dead without change; Trump is the last great hope.
Hurrah Trump!
Something I wrote in another post: “America is a difficult place to govern. It is not a democracy, an elite rules, using lies and psychological manipulation. Trump has faced great obstacles, for eight years, the entire establishment hates him, uses every resource to destroy him; they control the media, constantly bombard him negatively, used the judiciary. Yet, with a popular vote, an unprecedented canvassing of America he has persevered and won. He is a serious man. One of the most consequential men in American history.”
Very good sir!
That was brilliantly true and accurate. Thank you.
I feel that Trumps plan is to de-fund the Chinese.
I worked for a chemical company that found itself in direct competition with the Chinese. My employer was the largest in the world in this market space. At the beginning, our motto was to 'sell at any cost' just to keep the Chinese from getting funded. Their product was inferior both chemically and performance wise, but over time, as they slowly sold product for very low prices, they were able to raise enough capital to invest in their process and people. Eventually their quality and performance matched the products that I was selling. This led to rapid price decreasing - a commoditization of the product stream. In the interim, my employer lobbied for and received tariff protections in the US against the Chinese made product of 25%. This slowed but did not kill the Chinese growth in the marketplace.
The Chinese are now well represented in the market, taking roughly 60% of the sales in the regions that I am familiar with, doing so using local people to represent them, meaning that they are taking even less profit then the non-Chinese manufacturers, who tend to go direct to the large end-users. But they are thriving. How can they do this? By investing in automation and process control on the manufacturing side, and building local relationships on the distribution side (primarily centered around low supply cost). They continued to invest in manufacturing well past the point where the original manufacturers stopped.
I think that Trump is underestimating how difficult it is to de-fund the Chinese.
If the EU is moving to China vs the US in response to Trumps tactics, it is simply because they believe that the Chinese, at least in the short term, can provide low-cost products, and supply raw materials that the US can't. It isn't about cultural similarities. It is about necessity and money. The US needs to be STRENGTHENING trade relationships with it's allies, while attacking the Chinese. Maybe that is Trumps intent, but he started the process awkwardly if it is.
For the record I supported Trump vs Harris, at least because he was the lesser of two evils. But also because I believe in what he is trying to do, from cutting waste, to MAHA. In this case, I think that he is stumbling. Not because of the stock market (I have lots of land and gold) but because of the lack of a firm direction, and clarity on what the plan is (although that may because he doesn't want to tip his hand). It gives one the impression that his plan wasn't well thought out. Go Trump, I have faith that you can sort this out.
"𝘐𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘌𝘜 𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘷𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘚 𝘪𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱𝘴 𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴, 𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘴𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘺 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘦, 𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮, 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘸-𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘶𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘢𝘸 𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘭𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘚 𝘤𝘢𝘯'𝘵."
Very likely accurate, but I'd reckon that the EU will end up getting burned by a Dependence Relationship with China, just like the US has. Definitely burned in areas different than where we got burned, but it's the EU. Losers gonna lose, pretty much no matter what...
PS - I worked for a very short time between College and the US Army as a Florida Rep for Hill Manufacturing in Atlanta (don't know if they're still in business.) Cold walking into a local plant or factory and listening for the guy with all the keys jangling off his belt - ah, those were the days...
BASF?
No, but worked for them as well
"𝘌𝘶𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘦 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘧𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘨𝘢𝘻𝘦 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘸𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘵, 𝘢𝘴 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘢𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘗𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘋𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘥 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴, 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘥𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘢𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢'𝘴 𝘩𝘶𝘨𝘦 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘴 𝘢𝘯 '𝘢𝘤𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘩𝘺𝘣𝘳𝘪𝘥 𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘧𝘢𝘳𝘦' 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 '𝘱𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘩 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱.'
One thing is CERTAIN - both Europe and China 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 access to the US market to survive at their current standard of living - it is inarguable. Hmmmm - then there's this:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/eu-reverses-course-is-now-willing-renegotiate-trade/
"𝘚𝘰, 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘴?"
Puh-lease, Bill. You are employing the tired leftist ploy of "playing dumb" - in this instance about the mechanics and goals of what Trump is trying to do, while simultaneously preaching worst case scenarios arrived at by rectal retrieval. The leftarded do this quite frequently on an array of subjects when they realize the pillars holding up their "logic and conclusions" are, in reality, cracked and weak - we have seen it often from commenters on these very boards. It is a tactic employed to Deflect or sometimes Deny - only used in place of 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘤 criticisms or derision.
Bill's a sharp guy - he knows EXACTLY what Trump is doing, and contrary to what he feeds us on the daily, facts are pesky things regarding the "Trade War" being hyped now. The specifics have been spelled out (for any halfwit to understand), how the strategy could very well work has been explained (Bill conveniently ignores the Historical results of past Tariff actions and tax cuts), and the intended results have been clearly defined (we're seeing them begin to ripen now.) But Bonner won't go there in his missives - it would show that Trump actually has a solid, well-thought out Plan and is instituting very clear actions to reach the end goals - but Bill can't stomach that, nor can he have his readers begin to see the Wisdom of what Trump is doing re. Trade. Very soon preliminary results will be undeniable and only the committed America Haters will be ignoring Reality while trying to stay relevant - as they always do.
Keep chirping Bill - your jealous denials and attempts to belittle are laughably entertaining...
All very interesting. I don’t remember anyone, especially the left, bitching in 2022 when under Biden’s presidency NASDAQ dropped 32%, S&P dropped 18%. I surely don’t know where all this is going, but deporting criminals, and defending Americans, seem like good idea to me.
Hmmm. I also don’t remember anyone asking why our borders should be open or why pro-lifers are terrorists, or why convicted felons should be allowed to come in while whole cities of American tax payers were devastatingly locked down.
We know how the country did in Trump’s first term and how it did under whoever was running things for Biden.
If you want to live Biden’s way, just move to CA.
Have a nice day.
Good reply
Excellent!
Hi SE, check this out.
https://www.tbwns.com/2025/04/14/the-bears-lair-they-mocked-liverpool-for-the-corn-laws-too/
That was an excellent article - fully worth the price of admission (as opposed to BPR.)
There are many great, factual points to choose from, but I especially liked:
"Stopping dead the flow of low-value illegal immigrants enormously improves the life possibilities for ordinary Americans, as demonstrated by March 2025’s job numbers, which showed 329,000 job gains for the native-born from February, more than the 228,000 overall jobs increase. "
I enjoy his once a week free letter. He has a very good knowledge of history.
He covered a LOT of ground there - and did it accurately and well, IMO. Thanks for sharing - I'll add him to my intake...
Just a question. Has anybody thought of the cost to negotiate with all the countries of this world? If there are 5-10 to negotiate at one time , are there enough "brains" to accommodate?
Bill quotes from a nbr of sources in this article; but, the one about the European's getting together with China to develop a fair and free trading system is the biggest joke of the year. Considering Communist China's golden rule of "the end justifies the means" (which they have followed religiously). "fair" and "free" have the least meaning in their vocabulary. This would be like leaving one bed that has a mild mannered rattlesnake to another bed having 2 or 3 ill tempered Black Mambas.
You beat me to the punch Kenneth! I was thinking the same thing when Bill quoted Ursela V. and Europe running to Chiner for a “level playing field and free and fair trade agreement”! Gee, I wonder where I’ve heard that before?!?!? 🤣😂
Yeah, Mike, free and fair trade a;ways seem to translate to money and power for the rich and those in power.
Yup, we NEVER seem to get to the FREE or FAIR parts! Thanks again for your post Kenneth.
Black Mama's?
No, Black Mamba\. A very deadly snake.
C'mon man. She was Indian - feather, not dot...
The big picture Trump's tariff's have increased volatility in the stock market and crypto. Those who bailed from trophy assets provided a gift to those who bought. The stock and crypto exchanges like nothing better than lots of buying and selling activity.
I'm up over 300% maybe I should write a newsletter. I'll name it, "Buy Low Sell High". something retail investors never seem to learn. If you're down sell, take the tax write off and buy lower to recover the loss when good assets once again appreciate.
If you don't harbor an irrational, immature, unending hatred of Donald Trump that would color pretty much everything you think or write - I say go for it.
We already have a newsletter that completely accomplishes the first part...
Count me in…I’d LOVE to know how you did it
Sounds like one of the better propaganda pieces I've read in a few years. Very well done. BUT Ray Dahlio says tariffs are not the primary problem, it's unaffordable debt and a monetary order which must change.
Ready, fire, aim.
A different take on the present situation.
Chaos Comes Calling by Richard Young
Remember when Nancy Pelosi, in another galaxy, long, long ago, was Speaker of the House? Then-Speaker Pelosi led the pact of many "patriotic citizens", eager to instruct the public about the dialectic of hubris and nemesis, joyful compilations of “Hollywood celebrities, ditto-head news readers and Democratic politicians intoning that party line.”
In Spectator US, Roger Kimball describes how the impossible mutated to “the walls are closing in.” If it weren’t “Russia, Russia, Russia,” then it was Stormy Daniels.
… the entertainment committee was on the job, and many “walls-are-closing-in” compilations flooded the internet for fun but NO profit.
NGO = Parallel Government (The Swamp-?)
Elon Musk, Trump’s point man for DOGE, has revealed the truth about NGOs. “non-governmental organization,” actually means “nurturing governmental officialdom,” i.e., diverting taxpayer dollars for oneself, one’s relatives, and people who can do you some favors. Which is to say that the “non” in “NGO” really means “all” or “limitless.”
One canny commentator on X observed, “Over the last few months, we’ve come to a realization that should have landed much harder: NGOs weren’t just adjacent to government, they were the parallel government.” (or the Government SWAMP)
Over the last few months, we’ve come to a realization that should have landed much harder: NGOs weren’t just adjacent to government, they were the parallel government. We were shocked. I was too. But looking back, it’s exactly what you’d expect. NGOs operate outside the chain of… https://t.co/xNu8jZKDzt
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) April 13, 2025
NGOs, continues Mr. Kimball, operate out of the chain of command.
They answer to no electorate, no oversight, no public mandate. They can push any agenda they choose WITHOUT accountability.
The moment Biden took office, the plan was already in motion. NGOs had the infrastructure, the logistics, the funding pipelines; everything ready to go. They didn’t need permission. They just needed POWER. And when they got it, they had it all set up from day one: overnight, we were flooded with illegal immigrants (Aliens) under the cover of a coordinated strategy that had been waiting in the wings.
Well, guess what? Donald Trump has upended that apple cart. If you care about fiscal sanity, accountability, and transparency, you welcome the rehabilitation. Unfortunately for those who made a living off exploiting the corruption the status quo allowed, this plunge into chaos is into an “outer darkness.”
It is almost amusing to see the reaction from the “public-teat sucking public class.”
Donald Trump announces a raft of tariffs to return critical industries to the United States and to level the economic playing field. The markets weep for a few days.
One by one, countries line up to make a deal with the world’s largest economy. At last count, some 90 countries have signaled their intention to trim the tariffs and other trade barriers they have erected against America.
Even China is making some agreeable noises. Trump has responded by delaying the imposition of certain tariffs, a canny bit of flexibility that the anti-Trump chorus has denounced as “panic.”
Headlines scream, “No One Is Buying the White House Spin.” But in fact, countries are lining up to buy it, and it’s no spin, it’s negotiation.
Investor Bill Ackman speaks, “A willingness to adjust a strategy based on new facts and data is a sign of the strength of a leader. It is not an indication of weakness.”
Roger Kimball continues:
Trump secured an “historic” deal with Panama to push out the Chinese from control of the canal and restore America’s priority.
Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury, is in Argentina to finalize talks with President Javier Milei. “Team Trump is firing on all cylinders. The pace is dizzying,” lauds Mr. Kimball.
According to yesterday’s news sources, yes. “Trump trade team chases 90 deals in 90 days,” scoffs Reuters.
“Experts say good luck with that. ”Experts, eh? Poor dears. They may call it “chaos.”
“It’s what the rest of us call “winning.”
EXCELLENT post. And there is room and reason for Optimism. It appears that the Congress may have started to pull their heads from between their buttocks and listen to the DOGE Ditty:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-admin-moves-defund-left-leaning-pbs-npr
Bill: I agree with some of what you are saying. I disagree on the back and forth of the tariff issue. NEGOTIATING is part of deal making. You go back and forth until there is a middle that is acceptable to both parties. I once learned years ago that a deal is fair when:
1. Both parties are happy
2. Both parties are unhappy
It is a bad deal if one party is happy and the other unhappy.
AP
This is getting interesting as BB becomes the great disrupter.
Trump is proving that he is masterful at playing both arsonist and firefighter. Further destruction of capital markets and business confidence incoming…
Careful Steven - there's a flock of edible Crows coming in just ahead of your desire for destruction. How very Patriotic of you...
That’s right! All I need to do is ignore fundamental business analysis and capital flow patterns and embrace the wisdom in some crackpot Youtube video and all will be revealed! Embrace the second coming of authoritarian clap trap and bring back those jobs of sweatshops making T shirts and screwing in those tiny screws for 10 hours a day! I am all in!!!
" fundamental business analysis and capital flow patterns"
Cause those NEVER change.
Videos (hundreds of them) filmed by native Chinese business people engaged in Commerce inside China represent a "crackpot" point of view. And the dozens of idle/empty factories shown in multitudes of these videos must all be staged, because your expert interpretation of "fundamental business analysis and capital flow patterns" yields the unquestionable "fact" that the Trump tariffs just couldn't be working, amIright? Pretty simplistic view, perfesssser.
There is ONE of us doing a hefty amount of Ignoring, so you got that part right...
Cmon Bill, you are a very smart guy and you know what he’s trying to do. He wants manufacturing back in the US. He wants the independence from China. He wants the jobs back here and the prosperity that creates .
The same things Bill Bonner professed to wanting for YEARS. What changed?
🍿🍿
Trump doesn't understand the first (or the second or third) issue about currencies and how they relate to trade.
Currencies are used in trade so that we don't have to work with barter systems worldwide. They are also used to allow for nations to produce things that they have a relative advantage in the end product. However, Trump thinks the US maintains a relative advantage in provocation, financing, and complaining: We provoke other nations to not want to do business with us, then finance their factories, and then complain when they send the essential products elsewhere. All the while forcing them to use our dollars to buy things in international markets.
Additionally, the whole concept of trade deficits is relative. It does not mean that other nations are taking advantage of us; it means that we are able to produce things of higher value here instead of wasting resources producing trinkets that we can get for pennies from somewhere else. And we get usable goods (and some useless junk), while others get our dollars, which keep their banks afloat. That is, until they start buying gold with those dollars.
Which is exactly what they are doing. Currency is a tool no different than a pencil on a pad.
Like a dull pencil it has to be managed.