I've been reading your daily stuff for many years and for the most part keep tabs on the western world that way. My first house was in Federal hill, I went to college in Baltimore, raised my kids in the Balt/Wash corridor, started a tech business in downtown Baltimore, sold it all and now live on a farm in the mountains of South America. The good old American dream....
My question is, who are the 'Elite'? We hear so much about them, but no one seems to be able to put a finger on who they are or what the story behind the story is?
Take care, I can really love hearing your Argentina stories.
A 75 bp move doesn't sound like much. However, when you put it in context to your starting point its a pretty massive move. A jump from 1.00% to 1.75% is a 75% increase. Imagine how a junkie would react if his/her syringe was 75% empty. We don't have to imagine, we can just watch the market today :-)
I don't know.Seeing way too much inflation talk lately.I don't think inflation is going away,but I do think there is a chance it has peaked,for a little while.I read that Russia is selling their oil to India and others at a discount of $20-$30 a barrel.So,maybe there isn't really such a worldwide shortage of oil,when you figure that Russian oil is being marketed and those countries buying it's oil aren't going to buy higher priced oil from others.So,maybe oil prices coming down?Also,if Putin dies,as many say he could,that would likely end that war,moving more grain to market.Add in,the Fed raising interest rates and selling bonds,strong Dollar and lower deficits.Lot of possibilities for less inflation,going forward.
Hello: I have tried to sign in for months after paying the fee for membership. I still cannot enter even though you recognize by email. I continue to receive the " does not recognize the email or password" when attempting to sign in. You did send a one-time email to enter which I did use. What do I need to do next? Tom
While he has four properties in North America, South America, France and Ireland, which of those 4 properties would he prefer to ride the storm out in, when the sh*t hits the fan in his home in Baltimore?
Very bleak it would seem. Especially since the Covid-19 Vaccine was introduced. And now, a recession.
"The annual statements for Lincoln National Life Insurance Company show that the company paid out in death benefits under group life insurance polices a little over $500 million in 2019, about $548 million in 2020, and a stunning $1.4 billion in 2021.
From 2019, the last normal year before the pandemic, to 2020, the year of the Covid-19 virus, there was an increase in group death benefits paid out of only 9 percent. But group death benefits in 2021, the year the vaccine was introduced, increased almost 164 percent over 2020."
While it is hard to naysay a death claim (poke him, I'm sure he's just holding his breath), insurance companies are doing whatever they can to stifle payouts in other departments. No easier target than fire claims.
Recently, a neighbor of a friend had his house burn down in its entirety, while him and his wife were at church. When he returned, he was obviously devastated. He called the insurance company for assistance, only to have a team of forensic specialists swarm the site. Over 1000 pictures later (no kidding), after the forensic team sifted through debris for 5 days and then interviewed both him and his wife separately as if their stories might differ, the verdict is still out. In the end, the husband and wife were more shaken by their treatment by the insurance company, than the fire that had stole every shred of their past identity.
While the fire commissioner had already ruled the event as accidental, 1 week later, the insurance company is still debating whether or not they will be covering what appears to be a $2M loss. They were left with the horrible feeling, that the fire not only stole their history, but their dignity as well.
Understandably, from a business perspective, Insurance companies would rather pay $100k in forensic analysis to find some obscure fault in the way the couple kept their home safe, than $2M in a fire claim.
To their defense, there was no reason to light their place on fire house. No mortgage, no debt, no children (might have something to do with the "no debt part), no gambling habits, money in the bank (seeing a trend here), the husband is retired and the wife is still working. Wouldn't make sense. Whereas someone neck deep in debt might just forget to keep the gas can a safe distance from the bug zapper, these guys are your classic saints. Yet they're being treated like they flew a plane into their own building.
While these 2 individuals may be the exception rather than the rule, something tells me we're in for one hot year.
"Even with rate increases of .75% a quarter, it will take 4 years to catch up. And that is only if the CPI stays still. Which is very unlikely."
This sounds like an expectation of further increases of inflation in the short term. Tom Dyson this week is predicting deflation in the short term. I hope you will fill us in on how the BPR team is resolving that seemingly crucial issue.
As nobody is replying to you , I ll give you my view for whatever is worth . As I mention this week , I believe the usd is in a down cycle which will end Jan-feb 2027 , and as the bases metals ( gold, silver ) move in opposite directions ( pick in usd low in gold and silver and vice versa ) . Gold & Silver should start moving up from the last quarter of this year , breaking this huge consolidation from 2020 till end of 2022 , to find their top by beginning of 2027 . I don’t think any event will push up gold and silver , the only one I have in mind is closing mines for any rasons that I don’t see , dis happens I. The 80’s in silver .
Hope I was helpfull , the future will tell us if I am right 😉
Hi Bill,
I've been reading your daily stuff for many years and for the most part keep tabs on the western world that way. My first house was in Federal hill, I went to college in Baltimore, raised my kids in the Balt/Wash corridor, started a tech business in downtown Baltimore, sold it all and now live on a farm in the mountains of South America. The good old American dream....
My question is, who are the 'Elite'? We hear so much about them, but no one seems to be able to put a finger on who they are or what the story behind the story is?
Take care, I can really love hearing your Argentina stories.
A 75 bp move doesn't sound like much. However, when you put it in context to your starting point its a pretty massive move. A jump from 1.00% to 1.75% is a 75% increase. Imagine how a junkie would react if his/her syringe was 75% empty. We don't have to imagine, we can just watch the market today :-)
Joe Frazier could probably do a better job than the current Fed chairman.
Great article as usual!
Central Planning; the gift that just keeps giving. STD comes to mind :-)
True.
But hopefully only Herpes is Forever...
Monkeypox. Whoops, that was racist 😂
Hi
How low or bad does everything have to get before the Feds will start turning things around.
Will it take a new virus or more money th turn things around?
Maggie
So here's my question. Are we at the end of the world as we know it (thanks REM) at long last?
Gotta love the way Bill puts the world to rights in his unique satirical style.
I don't know.Seeing way too much inflation talk lately.I don't think inflation is going away,but I do think there is a chance it has peaked,for a little while.I read that Russia is selling their oil to India and others at a discount of $20-$30 a barrel.So,maybe there isn't really such a worldwide shortage of oil,when you figure that Russian oil is being marketed and those countries buying it's oil aren't going to buy higher priced oil from others.So,maybe oil prices coming down?Also,if Putin dies,as many say he could,that would likely end that war,moving more grain to market.Add in,the Fed raising interest rates and selling bonds,strong Dollar and lower deficits.Lot of possibilities for less inflation,going forward.
you're right on the money with those mortgage figures. a .75% quarterly increase in
rates (3%/year) would mean over $7000/year in payments in the example !!.
of course, if one can a 350,000 house, its just a minor inconvenience..........................
Hello: I have tried to sign in for months after paying the fee for membership. I still cannot enter even though you recognize by email. I continue to receive the " does not recognize the email or password" when attempting to sign in. You did send a one-time email to enter which I did use. What do I need to do next? Tom
Here's one for Bill.
While he has four properties in North America, South America, France and Ireland, which of those 4 properties would he prefer to ride the storm out in, when the sh*t hits the fan in his home in Baltimore?
Bill,
With interest rates rising what is the impact on
Insurance company reserves in terms of their large bond holdings and contract dividend
payments?
Thank you!
Peter
Very bleak it would seem. Especially since the Covid-19 Vaccine was introduced. And now, a recession.
"The annual statements for Lincoln National Life Insurance Company show that the company paid out in death benefits under group life insurance polices a little over $500 million in 2019, about $548 million in 2020, and a stunning $1.4 billion in 2021.
From 2019, the last normal year before the pandemic, to 2020, the year of the Covid-19 virus, there was an increase in group death benefits paid out of only 9 percent. But group death benefits in 2021, the year the vaccine was introduced, increased almost 164 percent over 2020."
https://crossroadsreport.substack.com/p/breaking-fifth-largest-life-insurance
While it is hard to naysay a death claim (poke him, I'm sure he's just holding his breath), insurance companies are doing whatever they can to stifle payouts in other departments. No easier target than fire claims.
Recently, a neighbor of a friend had his house burn down in its entirety, while him and his wife were at church. When he returned, he was obviously devastated. He called the insurance company for assistance, only to have a team of forensic specialists swarm the site. Over 1000 pictures later (no kidding), after the forensic team sifted through debris for 5 days and then interviewed both him and his wife separately as if their stories might differ, the verdict is still out. In the end, the husband and wife were more shaken by their treatment by the insurance company, than the fire that had stole every shred of their past identity.
While the fire commissioner had already ruled the event as accidental, 1 week later, the insurance company is still debating whether or not they will be covering what appears to be a $2M loss. They were left with the horrible feeling, that the fire not only stole their history, but their dignity as well.
Understandably, from a business perspective, Insurance companies would rather pay $100k in forensic analysis to find some obscure fault in the way the couple kept their home safe, than $2M in a fire claim.
To their defense, there was no reason to light their place on fire house. No mortgage, no debt, no children (might have something to do with the "no debt part), no gambling habits, money in the bank (seeing a trend here), the husband is retired and the wife is still working. Wouldn't make sense. Whereas someone neck deep in debt might just forget to keep the gas can a safe distance from the bug zapper, these guys are your classic saints. Yet they're being treated like they flew a plane into their own building.
While these 2 individuals may be the exception rather than the rule, something tells me we're in for one hot year.
Gold. It simply hasn't done its job. Will it?
"Even with rate increases of .75% a quarter, it will take 4 years to catch up. And that is only if the CPI stays still. Which is very unlikely."
This sounds like an expectation of further increases of inflation in the short term. Tom Dyson this week is predicting deflation in the short term. I hope you will fill us in on how the BPR team is resolving that seemingly crucial issue.
Thanks for all you do.
What will be the events that lead to a significant, sustained rise in gold (and silver)? Any projections when?
As nobody is replying to you , I ll give you my view for whatever is worth . As I mention this week , I believe the usd is in a down cycle which will end Jan-feb 2027 , and as the bases metals ( gold, silver ) move in opposite directions ( pick in usd low in gold and silver and vice versa ) . Gold & Silver should start moving up from the last quarter of this year , breaking this huge consolidation from 2020 till end of 2022 , to find their top by beginning of 2027 . I don’t think any event will push up gold and silver , the only one I have in mind is closing mines for any rasons that I don’t see , dis happens I. The 80’s in silver .
Hope I was helpfull , the future will tell us if I am right 😉