I listened to a program on NPR yesterday where an 'expert' gleefully explained that in six months this talk of a recession will be in our rear view mirror. I've listened to other analysts who have used their verbal paintbrush to create a picture showing a new day dawning. I spoke with an advisor the other day that explained the 'old' data points we've relied on to measure and predict future outcomes have lost their credibility. We are in a new day. I'm starting to feel like the only sober person at a party where the punch was spiked. Thanks for your insights and the looooooonnnnngggg view!
Regarding the lack of willingness to relocate for work: here's another thought... In Bill Clinton's day, it was the economy, stupid. In our day, it's the culture, stupid. Most of the "good" jobs are located in "blue" areas, and, on top of that, are with foreign companies. Some of the "good" jobs are in nominally "red" areas, such as Dallas, such as my son's situation with a "good" job in Dallas, a nominally "red" area, but the company is German (Siemens). In my day (I'm 70), people (re)located for jobs in a different, less politicized America, with a more homogenous society, largely to work for an American company. Read into or out of this what you will. Like Dorothy and Toto, we're not in Kansas, anymore. Best always. PM
Yes Paul, we are no longer in the country we grew up in, as you have noticed. Many areas in my state are dropping in real estate values, except the few that are experiencing insane growth due to Chinese and Indians buying every home that comes on the market, paying cash they most likely received from their government. We have seen this invasion in the past from the Middle East back in the 80s, but the volume of the BRICS nations are on an unprecedented level, not to mention the six million illegals that have been allowed in these past few years. Wonder what final outcome the creators of this invasion want to produce🤔
“What are we to make of it? Is it ‘risk on’ again? Is it time to load up on stocks?
The answer is ‘no.’”
100% correct...today.
But back in February, all those who listened to Fisher, Buffet, Navellier, et al, advise that a 2023 rebound rally is going to happen, man, they must REALLY feel like fools for not staying in “max mis-out”, uh, “max safety” mode. Suckers!
No FOMO, though. The rebound rally ship has sailed. Just left with SOMO now; the Sorrow Of Missing Out.
Friend Sluggo, did you ever see "The Girl from the Golden West" (1938)?
The main song from this show is "Who Are We to Say?" There are times when you have to listen to your heart and tell your head to take a powder. Regardless, never let someone else do your thinking for you. Best always. PM
Who are we to say, just what love will do?
Love may live a day or all life through.
Who are we to say, how a rose will grow?
It may fade away or bloom and blow.
You and I may plan and scheme,
And everything's arranged;
Then, there comes a fragrant dream.,
And all the world is changed.
Who are we to say, when to say "goodbye",
Or to wonder why we two must part?
So, we'll live today, loving while we may, dear,
Knowing Love would say, "Obey your heart!"
(As sung by the incomparable Nelson Eddy 1901-1967)
Don’t worry brother, keep your money safe for now, because sooner or later our host will be right, and then you can jump in at Dow 20,000 while everyone else’s profits go bust!
Being right in the short term (could be including 2024 is risk on. I got bad feelings about Philly RE and started reducing my exposure in 2006 before the crash in 2008. All of my REI friends said I was missing the upside, and I had to somewhat agree as buildings I bought for $12-$58k and sold for $75k became valued over $100k. Value is not selling, the investors instead borrowed against their new found equity and renovated the buildings. When media started reporting proving a bubble had formed it was too late for these new owners to sell. One offered the worst building I had sold back for $75K asking for a second to cover the $30k in improvements.
In 2008 I bought that and another property back at $49k each from Well Fargo.
I believe I captured the top of the market without paying for it. I might do the same this time around but only if the City has a major positive reform of their landlord tenant court in favor of the landlord. When I got into landlording nonpaying tenants were out in 2 months at a cost of $390 in court and lawyer costs.
I'm thinking that ship has salied never to return. While the suburbs have so far welcomed my investments. Good part with the suburban purchases, they were all cash purchases with the plan of never selling or seeking a loan from banks.
Being too early looks pretty smart when the music stops and one realizes there's a lot more ass's then chairs. I won't be playing the game when the music stops, and it always does eventually.
It's coming, but "they" may not be able to pull it off. Don't look now, but the wheels are coming off in DC. People have had enough of the political charade we call "the Biden administration". Americans HATE being played for fools. Not even Garfinkel's Gestapo nor
In theory the USD has a long way to go towards 3rd world status. Using the zimbabwe 10 trillion dollar note as an example; the note was accepted as legal tender (by the people) until the merchants were unable to restock fast enough to maintain a profit margin.
Possibly the liberal DA's refusing to procecute shoplifting in the major cities are part of the plan. If there's nowhere to spend a buck good money is less important. In Philadelphia it takes 5 months to evict a tenant for nonpayment, while the sheriff's department is so understaffed it can take an additional 6 months to serve the Writ of Possetion upon the tenant. Bad credit and past evictions are not as rare due to Covid, might the tenant pool be so poorly stocked with quality tenants mass homelessness would result. Politician within all the cities might simply outlaw evictions entirely. Landlords would then have no access to the dollar.
The political solution; with a simple wave of the hand the President could forgive all debt, the dollar would go to zero along will all savings, stocks will tank as there'd be no liquidy to cash out or take profits.
The Fed coin coupled with a scan of one's Iris, with the promise 'Things will go back to normalcy'.
Who iamong the poor or middle class would not accept such a plan? Moreover, all elections would be suspended, politicians would gain what they seek. Finally the perfect system of governance!
Well, not a happy day for me. I just got a notification of a software that has been exploited by an unauthorized third party over 30 days ago on some of my accounts. They now have my name and social security. So much for security...this is becoming a nightmare. Beware everyone!
I listened to a program on NPR yesterday where an 'expert' gleefully explained that in six months this talk of a recession will be in our rear view mirror. I've listened to other analysts who have used their verbal paintbrush to create a picture showing a new day dawning. I spoke with an advisor the other day that explained the 'old' data points we've relied on to measure and predict future outcomes have lost their credibility. We are in a new day. I'm starting to feel like the only sober person at a party where the punch was spiked. Thanks for your insights and the looooooonnnnngggg view!
Regarding the lack of willingness to relocate for work: here's another thought... In Bill Clinton's day, it was the economy, stupid. In our day, it's the culture, stupid. Most of the "good" jobs are located in "blue" areas, and, on top of that, are with foreign companies. Some of the "good" jobs are in nominally "red" areas, such as Dallas, such as my son's situation with a "good" job in Dallas, a nominally "red" area, but the company is German (Siemens). In my day (I'm 70), people (re)located for jobs in a different, less politicized America, with a more homogenous society, largely to work for an American company. Read into or out of this what you will. Like Dorothy and Toto, we're not in Kansas, anymore. Best always. PM
Yes Paul, we are no longer in the country we grew up in, as you have noticed. Many areas in my state are dropping in real estate values, except the few that are experiencing insane growth due to Chinese and Indians buying every home that comes on the market, paying cash they most likely received from their government. We have seen this invasion in the past from the Middle East back in the 80s, but the volume of the BRICS nations are on an unprecedented level, not to mention the six million illegals that have been allowed in these past few years. Wonder what final outcome the creators of this invasion want to produce🤔
“What are we to make of it? Is it ‘risk on’ again? Is it time to load up on stocks?
The answer is ‘no.’”
100% correct...today.
But back in February, all those who listened to Fisher, Buffet, Navellier, et al, advise that a 2023 rebound rally is going to happen, man, they must REALLY feel like fools for not staying in “max mis-out”, uh, “max safety” mode. Suckers!
No FOMO, though. The rebound rally ship has sailed. Just left with SOMO now; the Sorrow Of Missing Out.
Why don’t you ask Fisher , buffet and Navellier for their next move ?
Good call. Perhaps I should have followed them. I subscribe to Navellier and to one other. Both bullish for 2023.
But I ignored them and went with Doom&Gloom here. All the charts and stuff, Dow/Gold stuff.
You judge who’s been right in 2023.
Friend Sluggo, did you ever see "The Girl from the Golden West" (1938)?
The main song from this show is "Who Are We to Say?" There are times when you have to listen to your heart and tell your head to take a powder. Regardless, never let someone else do your thinking for you. Best always. PM
Who are we to say, just what love will do?
Love may live a day or all life through.
Who are we to say, how a rose will grow?
It may fade away or bloom and blow.
You and I may plan and scheme,
And everything's arranged;
Then, there comes a fragrant dream.,
And all the world is changed.
Who are we to say, when to say "goodbye",
Or to wonder why we two must part?
So, we'll live today, loving while we may, dear,
Knowing Love would say, "Obey your heart!"
(As sung by the incomparable Nelson Eddy 1901-1967)
Don’t worry brother, keep your money safe for now, because sooner or later our host will be right, and then you can jump in at Dow 20,000 while everyone else’s profits go bust!
Oh indeed, no choice but to hope for that now. Like I said, no FOMO. Waaaaaay too late for that. Just SOMO for now.
Being right in the short term (could be including 2024 is risk on. I got bad feelings about Philly RE and started reducing my exposure in 2006 before the crash in 2008. All of my REI friends said I was missing the upside, and I had to somewhat agree as buildings I bought for $12-$58k and sold for $75k became valued over $100k. Value is not selling, the investors instead borrowed against their new found equity and renovated the buildings. When media started reporting proving a bubble had formed it was too late for these new owners to sell. One offered the worst building I had sold back for $75K asking for a second to cover the $30k in improvements.
In 2008 I bought that and another property back at $49k each from Well Fargo.
I believe I captured the top of the market without paying for it. I might do the same this time around but only if the City has a major positive reform of their landlord tenant court in favor of the landlord. When I got into landlording nonpaying tenants were out in 2 months at a cost of $390 in court and lawyer costs.
I'm thinking that ship has salied never to return. While the suburbs have so far welcomed my investments. Good part with the suburban purchases, they were all cash purchases with the plan of never selling or seeking a loan from banks.
Being too early looks pretty smart when the music stops and one realizes there's a lot more ass's then chairs. I won't be playing the game when the music stops, and it always does eventually.
Please comment on the elimination of paper money.
It's coming, but "they" may not be able to pull it off. Don't look now, but the wheels are coming off in DC. People have had enough of the political charade we call "the Biden administration". Americans HATE being played for fools. Not even Garfinkel's Gestapo nor
the vaunted media can stop it. Best always. PM
In theory the USD has a long way to go towards 3rd world status. Using the zimbabwe 10 trillion dollar note as an example; the note was accepted as legal tender (by the people) until the merchants were unable to restock fast enough to maintain a profit margin.
Possibly the liberal DA's refusing to procecute shoplifting in the major cities are part of the plan. If there's nowhere to spend a buck good money is less important. In Philadelphia it takes 5 months to evict a tenant for nonpayment, while the sheriff's department is so understaffed it can take an additional 6 months to serve the Writ of Possetion upon the tenant. Bad credit and past evictions are not as rare due to Covid, might the tenant pool be so poorly stocked with quality tenants mass homelessness would result. Politician within all the cities might simply outlaw evictions entirely. Landlords would then have no access to the dollar.
The political solution; with a simple wave of the hand the President could forgive all debt, the dollar would go to zero along will all savings, stocks will tank as there'd be no liquidy to cash out or take profits.
The Fed coin coupled with a scan of one's Iris, with the promise 'Things will go back to normalcy'.
Who iamong the poor or middle class would not accept such a plan? Moreover, all elections would be suspended, politicians would gain what they seek. Finally the perfect system of governance!
Well, not a happy day for me. I just got a notification of a software that has been exploited by an unauthorized third party over 30 days ago on some of my accounts. They now have my name and social security. So much for security...this is becoming a nightmare. Beware everyone!
GF: Thank you. In the process of doing that.