The US reneged on its promise to exchange dollars for gold in August of 1971. Dollars were still the world’s reserve currency, but nobody had any guarantee that they would remain limited and valuable.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the US, the only place where logic goes to die and is buried under a tax form. President Trump, yeah, you know the guy who’s shrinking the deficit by spending less on education and more on what? Tariff cosplay? That’s like saying you lost weight by amputating your brain.
Meanwhile, his Fox-Frothing finance prophets are chanting about “growth” like it’s some kind of economic puberty. “Growth will surprise everyone!” Yeah, like herpes. Suddenly, out of nowhere, it’s everywhere and nobody wants to admit where they got it.
And then there’s Warsh, Kevin Warsh. He’s the Fed pick who thinks you can cure inflation by printing more money. That’s like trying to cure alcoholism with tequila enemas. Kevin says he can handle $10 trillion in rollover debt. Yeah buddy, that’s not a monetary policy, that’s a Cirque du Soleil act. He’s gonna juggle flaming chainsaws while riding a unicycle made out of IOUs.
And now China, oh those pesky little Chinese, they’re backing out of buying US Treasury toilet paper. I mean, if you were holding bonds backed by President Trump”s plan to fund the future with expired Chuck E. Cheese coupons, wouldn’t you walk away too?
They’re out. No more Treasuries. They’ve seen enough reruns of “America’s Next Top Sanction” to know how this ends. And they don’t want a guest spot on the next episode.
You gotta love how the Feds still pretend the dollar is the “trustworthy world reserve currency.” That’s adorable, it’s like pretending your ex still wants to get back together…while they’re on a honeymoon with someone else.
The rest of the world just noticed it’s basically Monopoly money with bloodstains and a bald eagle sticker slapped on top.
US manufacturing output growth surged higher in January. The headline S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI®), recorded 52.4 in January. That was up from 51.8 in December. The upturn in the PMI was driven in particular by a faster rate of output growth: factory production reportedly grew at the fastest rate since last August, which had in turn been the best performance since May 2022.
“It appears you don't do any manufacturing. The tariffs are working.”
That’s a hell of an opening line. Sounds less like economic analysis and more like something my stepdad says when I won’t pass the mashed potatoes.
So now the Federal Reserve’s got this S&P Global PMI thing. 52.4, up from 51.8. That’s not a surge, that’s what happened when my bathroom scale rounded up because it felt bad for me.
They say manufacturing output is at its fastest pace since last August. August! You remember August? That was six months ago! I got milk in my fridge older than that headline.
I like how these guys talk about the PMI. (Purchasing Managers’ Index),
52.4 and they get so excited. If it dips below 50, it’s contraction. If it’s above 50, it’s expansion. So we’re celebrating being 2.5 points above “mildly not dying.” That’s like a doctor coming in and saying, “Good news Tony, your heart is technically beating.”
You think tariffs are working, huh? That’s like saying slamming your hand in a car door is working because you noticed it. Sure, you noticed it. Your hand noticed it. The car noticed it. Everybody noticed it.
AngryIceberg,they practically slapped a tax on imported steel and suddenly the domestic guy got busy. They raised the cost of foreign stuff so local stuff looks prettier. It’s economic Botox. Tightens the surface, doesn’t change the bones.
Here’s what I love. We’ve got ten trillion dollars rolling over like a drunk at a campsite, debt stacking up like greasy diner plates, and everybody’s chanting over a 2.6 tick in a survey some guy named Todd said, “Yeah, orders feel kinda better than December.” Boom! Economic Renaissance.
I want to see wages that beat the grocery store. Supply chains that don’t panic every time a cargo ship sneezes. Production that doesn’t depend on borrowing from the future, productivity spikes, capital investment, and long term wage growth. Instead we’re doing victory laps because a diffusion index twitched upward.
Let’s talk about that word “Diffusion index”, sounds like a fancy candle at a yoga studio. Call it “Industrial Optimism” it comes with notes of steel, desperation, and mild seasonal adjustment.
Look, I’m not saying output didn’t rise. I’m just saying if the entire national chest pounding hinges on 0.6 of a point and a survey trademark symbol, maybe we should dial back the parade float.
If tariffs are working, so is my microwave, but it doesn’t mean I built a civilization.
You're thesis is completely undermined by the fact that you have milk in your fridge since last August. I'm fairly certain that nobody thought you had built a civilization. Correction, a civilization of bacteria in your fridge. When the light comes on , do you hear something like "Take me to your leader."
Please stay solid and strong. Remember that at some point , the rump roast is gonna fart at you.
What is this, Shark Tank for nervous uncles? Should I grab some yen? Maybe a drachma? Yeah, go ahead, build a little basket of exotic panic. The world runs on currencies, sure, it also runs on denial and people pretending they understand forex because they watched half a YouTube video. You don’t solve systemic economic anxiety by collecting foreign bills like Pokémon cards. That’s not diversification, that’s financial cosplay.
The milk in the fridge since August? That milk’s outperforming half the President’s Leadership Team. At least it’s growing something. Now, if you open the door and hear “Take me to your leader” Good! That means something in there organized faster than Congress and that’s the most honest economic model you’ve got. Tiny organisms multiplying in the dark, living off leftovers, convinced they’re in charge because the light comes on and they panic. That’s not my refrigerator, that’s modern finance.
And as for the rump roast farting? Relax, in this system, everybody gets gassed eventually. Buddy, if your closing argument involves haunted deli meat, I’m not the one whose thesis collapsed.
I am in metal fabrication, and yes prices have increased particularly non-ferrous and exotic alloys, however I am also entertaining new customers and prospects.
Business was not robust in 2025, we are anticipating a better 2026... we'll see.
-
It's funny you mention supply chains and cargo ships being a problem.
Another of many reasons to reshore.
Ai is now and the future, and it won't happen without capex.
-
Inflation trending down.
Manufacturing trending up.
Personal income trending up.
GDP up.
I dunno... don't seem that doom and gloomy to me.
-
What happens if the Chinese construct a base on the south pole of the moon before the U.S.?
Seems we are spending a lot on capex, borrowing from the future that includes production spikes and long-term planning...
The PMI relies on surveys, not actual numbers. However, this brighter PMI news is tainted by reports of ongoing subdued sales growth, which rebounded only modestly after a drop in orders was recorded in December. That had been the first fall in demand for US goods since December 2024.
very fair article, Bill. I'm fine with Trump critique. It just needs to be stated in a reasonable way and not looked on like history started with Donald Trump!
The current fiscal policy under Trump, which includes significant tax cuts and increased tariffs, has led to substantial revenue growth and job creation.
But it also raises concerns about long-term deficits and economic sustainability.
-
Kudlow and other conservatives are stating it is possible to "grow" us out of debt...
-
The debt does not have to be paid to zero, only reduced.
Don't bet any money on Larry Kudlow's economic predictions. Here's a doozy from December 2007: "There's no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It's not going to happen. The Bush boom is alive and well".
Perhaps, but what I find more important is that we're shrinking the government workforce while expanding the private sector (thereby decreasing government spending while increasing tax receipts). We need to do a lot more spending reduction, but they have to start somewhere.
Growing manufacturing is a worthwhile goal, but having let so much of it go overseas (since the Clinton era) it's not going to come back quickly. Nobody can snap their fingers and make factories appear.
From Joel B: "...Thomas Jefferson once envisioned, there might be a future in which the United States of America is left to pursue “Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations... entangling alliances with none.”
Wish we had this kind of common sense in Washington today. House. Senate. Presidency.
After WW2, British Merchant Banking was on its knees. Virtually all the gold and foreign currency reserves had gone to the USA and they had no foreign currency deposits which would allow them to write foreign loans. But a savior was at hand - Josef Stalin.
Stalin had started to earn a lot of foreign currency by selling raw materials and needed a place to deposit it. New York? No way! The Americans might steal it. London? That`s more like it. The Brits would never dare...
So, the British banks got going again, but they never seem to have given their benefactor any credit....
Bill or Tom, what would have happened if Nixon did not close the gold window in 1971? This may be the third time I've asked this. It's not a trick question, it's that I cannot get anybody to answer it.
Reagan cut taxes and then raised them 3 times during his tenure. He didn’t fight volker on raising rates and he continued with cutting regulations. He believed in the Laffer curve. Yet we had a serious recession during his presidency. Could Trump’s tariff policy be the significant difference this time around. I’m just asking.
Do you disagree that that was the probable cause? They needed oil to continue conquering countries in SE Asia and finish conquering China and slaughtering the "inferior" Chinese.
Not sure what software was used to make the Sankey diagram of the US Surplus/Deficits, but it is exaggerating the size of the massive deficit that does not need to be exaggerated! If you align the bottom of the total $1.785 billion of receipts on the left side to the Total Outlay side and add up the outlays to that point, it corresponds to approximately $1.36 billion of outlays? 1.785 billion should go completely below National Defense and about a third of the way into Health if I'm reading this correctly.
I don’t know if that’s correct but I’m wondering how the hell both defense and net interest are below SS. I thought defense was something like $800 billion with interest even higher. Did the geniuses at the Treasury screw up? Where does the $340 billion figure come from? I wish it were that low.
No more for defense--who's crazy enough or strong enough to attack the US.?One of the few positive changes made by Trump is to rename the DOD what it really was during WWII and has been since 1950: the Department of War. The "Great" in MAGA is no longer production, construction, invention, trade, education, peace, etc. promised in the 2024 campaign. It's now intimidation, name-calling, force, bullying, theft, bombing, killing, etc.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the US, the only place where logic goes to die and is buried under a tax form. President Trump, yeah, you know the guy who’s shrinking the deficit by spending less on education and more on what? Tariff cosplay? That’s like saying you lost weight by amputating your brain.
Meanwhile, his Fox-Frothing finance prophets are chanting about “growth” like it’s some kind of economic puberty. “Growth will surprise everyone!” Yeah, like herpes. Suddenly, out of nowhere, it’s everywhere and nobody wants to admit where they got it.
And then there’s Warsh, Kevin Warsh. He’s the Fed pick who thinks you can cure inflation by printing more money. That’s like trying to cure alcoholism with tequila enemas. Kevin says he can handle $10 trillion in rollover debt. Yeah buddy, that’s not a monetary policy, that’s a Cirque du Soleil act. He’s gonna juggle flaming chainsaws while riding a unicycle made out of IOUs.
And now China, oh those pesky little Chinese, they’re backing out of buying US Treasury toilet paper. I mean, if you were holding bonds backed by President Trump”s plan to fund the future with expired Chuck E. Cheese coupons, wouldn’t you walk away too?
They’re out. No more Treasuries. They’ve seen enough reruns of “America’s Next Top Sanction” to know how this ends. And they don’t want a guest spot on the next episode.
You gotta love how the Feds still pretend the dollar is the “trustworthy world reserve currency.” That’s adorable, it’s like pretending your ex still wants to get back together…while they’re on a honeymoon with someone else.
The rest of the world just noticed it’s basically Monopoly money with bloodstains and a bald eagle sticker slapped on top.
Mr. Solomon...
It appears you don't do any manufacturing.
The tariffs are working.
-
From: S&P Global:
US manufacturing output growth surged higher in January. The headline S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI®), recorded 52.4 in January. That was up from 51.8 in December. The upturn in the PMI was driven in particular by a faster rate of output growth: factory production reportedly grew at the fastest rate since last August, which had in turn been the best performance since May 2022.
Angry 😡 Ice 🧊 Birds 🦅 ! Yeah! 👍
Angry Icebergs!
“It appears you don't do any manufacturing. The tariffs are working.”
That’s a hell of an opening line. Sounds less like economic analysis and more like something my stepdad says when I won’t pass the mashed potatoes.
So now the Federal Reserve’s got this S&P Global PMI thing. 52.4, up from 51.8. That’s not a surge, that’s what happened when my bathroom scale rounded up because it felt bad for me.
They say manufacturing output is at its fastest pace since last August. August! You remember August? That was six months ago! I got milk in my fridge older than that headline.
I like how these guys talk about the PMI. (Purchasing Managers’ Index),
52.4 and they get so excited. If it dips below 50, it’s contraction. If it’s above 50, it’s expansion. So we’re celebrating being 2.5 points above “mildly not dying.” That’s like a doctor coming in and saying, “Good news Tony, your heart is technically beating.”
You think tariffs are working, huh? That’s like saying slamming your hand in a car door is working because you noticed it. Sure, you noticed it. Your hand noticed it. The car noticed it. Everybody noticed it.
AngryIceberg,they practically slapped a tax on imported steel and suddenly the domestic guy got busy. They raised the cost of foreign stuff so local stuff looks prettier. It’s economic Botox. Tightens the surface, doesn’t change the bones.
Here’s what I love. We’ve got ten trillion dollars rolling over like a drunk at a campsite, debt stacking up like greasy diner plates, and everybody’s chanting over a 2.6 tick in a survey some guy named Todd said, “Yeah, orders feel kinda better than December.” Boom! Economic Renaissance.
I want to see wages that beat the grocery store. Supply chains that don’t panic every time a cargo ship sneezes. Production that doesn’t depend on borrowing from the future, productivity spikes, capital investment, and long term wage growth. Instead we’re doing victory laps because a diffusion index twitched upward.
Let’s talk about that word “Diffusion index”, sounds like a fancy candle at a yoga studio. Call it “Industrial Optimism” it comes with notes of steel, desperation, and mild seasonal adjustment.
Look, I’m not saying output didn’t rise. I’m just saying if the entire national chest pounding hinges on 0.6 of a point and a survey trademark symbol, maybe we should dial back the parade float.
If tariffs are working, so is my microwave, but it doesn’t mean I built a civilization.
You're thesis is completely undermined by the fact that you have milk in your fridge since last August. I'm fairly certain that nobody thought you had built a civilization. Correction, a civilization of bacteria in your fridge. When the light comes on , do you hear something like "Take me to your leader."
Please stay solid and strong. Remember that at some point , the rump roast is gonna fart at you.
BILLY……Let’s Finish the Game!
You want a currency tip?
What is this, Shark Tank for nervous uncles? Should I grab some yen? Maybe a drachma? Yeah, go ahead, build a little basket of exotic panic. The world runs on currencies, sure, it also runs on denial and people pretending they understand forex because they watched half a YouTube video. You don’t solve systemic economic anxiety by collecting foreign bills like Pokémon cards. That’s not diversification, that’s financial cosplay.
The milk in the fridge since August? That milk’s outperforming half the President’s Leadership Team. At least it’s growing something. Now, if you open the door and hear “Take me to your leader” Good! That means something in there organized faster than Congress and that’s the most honest economic model you’ve got. Tiny organisms multiplying in the dark, living off leftovers, convinced they’re in charge because the light comes on and they panic. That’s not my refrigerator, that’s modern finance.
And as for the rump roast farting? Relax, in this system, everybody gets gassed eventually. Buddy, if your closing argument involves haunted deli meat, I’m not the one whose thesis collapsed.
Your writing style is bright and vibrant and highly entertaining while providing relevant information.
Thank you Michael, I’m just relieved someone noticed… I thought I’d been whispering into a ceiling fan this whole time. 😀
I am in metal fabrication, and yes prices have increased particularly non-ferrous and exotic alloys, however I am also entertaining new customers and prospects.
Business was not robust in 2025, we are anticipating a better 2026... we'll see.
-
It's funny you mention supply chains and cargo ships being a problem.
Another of many reasons to reshore.
Ai is now and the future, and it won't happen without capex.
-
Inflation trending down.
Manufacturing trending up.
Personal income trending up.
GDP up.
I dunno... don't seem that doom and gloomy to me.
-
What happens if the Chinese construct a base on the south pole of the moon before the U.S.?
Seems we are spending a lot on capex, borrowing from the future that includes production spikes and long-term planning...
To get to the moon water first.
Manufacturers jobs are down every month
The PMI relies on surveys, not actual numbers. However, this brighter PMI news is tainted by reports of ongoing subdued sales growth, which rebounded only modestly after a drop in orders was recorded in December. That had been the first fall in demand for US goods since December 2024.
Always get a laugh.
Thanks for the alternative take on events !
I like it. What currency would you recommend that we buy? The Yen, Real, Pesos, Dracma Perhaps? Regardless, the world will still run on currencies.
😂😂
very fair article, Bill. I'm fine with Trump critique. It just needs to be stated in a reasonable way and not looked on like history started with Donald Trump!
I’m surprised Bill can still write articles that aren’t a TDS-type rant.
From "Search Assist" Ai:
The current fiscal policy under Trump, which includes significant tax cuts and increased tariffs, has led to substantial revenue growth and job creation.
But it also raises concerns about long-term deficits and economic sustainability.
-
Kudlow and other conservatives are stating it is possible to "grow" us out of debt...
-
The debt does not have to be paid to zero, only reduced.
I like the jobs report that says ~42,000 government jobs were cut and ~170,000 private sector jobs were added.
...isn't it great!
-
Money shows, investment regulars and Wall St reporting include a lot of political bias.
For example:
Ms NOW reporting- this massive downsizing wave, reporting that January recorded 108,435 job eliminations from U.S. employers.
-
If you want positive economic reporting tune into Charles Payne "Making Money"
Don't bet any money on Larry Kudlow's economic predictions. Here's a doozy from December 2007: "There's no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It's not going to happen. The Bush boom is alive and well".
There has been zero job creation in 2025….ذرو
You are incorrect:
"Revised Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data indicates the U.S. economy added 181,000 net new jobs for 2025."
Admittedly, that's not a good number, but it's not zero. If this Administration keeps the GDP going at four percent Bill should change his tune.
All the jobs are in healthcare and education services…nothing for manufacturing
Perhaps, but what I find more important is that we're shrinking the government workforce while expanding the private sector (thereby decreasing government spending while increasing tax receipts). We need to do a lot more spending reduction, but they have to start somewhere.
Growing manufacturing is a worthwhile goal, but having let so much of it go overseas (since the Clinton era) it's not going to come back quickly. Nobody can snap their fingers and make factories appear.
From Joel B: "...Thomas Jefferson once envisioned, there might be a future in which the United States of America is left to pursue “Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations... entangling alliances with none.”
Wish we had this kind of common sense in Washington today. House. Senate. Presidency.
Man.
After WW2, British Merchant Banking was on its knees. Virtually all the gold and foreign currency reserves had gone to the USA and they had no foreign currency deposits which would allow them to write foreign loans. But a savior was at hand - Josef Stalin.
Stalin had started to earn a lot of foreign currency by selling raw materials and needed a place to deposit it. New York? No way! The Americans might steal it. London? That`s more like it. The Brits would never dare...
So, the British banks got going again, but they never seem to have given their benefactor any credit....
Bill or Tom, what would have happened if Nixon did not close the gold window in 1971? This may be the third time I've asked this. It's not a trick question, it's that I cannot get anybody to answer it.
My only real disagreement with Egypt is I think the bathroom scales should round down if they feel bad for us.
Reagan cut taxes and then raised them 3 times during his tenure. He didn’t fight volker on raising rates and he continued with cutting regulations. He believed in the Laffer curve. Yet we had a serious recession during his presidency. Could Trump’s tariff policy be the significant difference this time around. I’m just asking.
I wish you were right. But this is a whole different world now. Debt.
"The Roosevelt Administration had cut off Japan from US exports, which — arguably — led to the bombing of Pearl Harbor."
Heh - nice hedge, Bill.
Do you disagree that that was the probable cause? They needed oil to continue conquering countries in SE Asia and finish conquering China and slaughtering the "inferior" Chinese.
Not sure what software was used to make the Sankey diagram of the US Surplus/Deficits, but it is exaggerating the size of the massive deficit that does not need to be exaggerated! If you align the bottom of the total $1.785 billion of receipts on the left side to the Total Outlay side and add up the outlays to that point, it corresponds to approximately $1.36 billion of outlays? 1.785 billion should go completely below National Defense and about a third of the way into Health if I'm reading this correctly.
Is only showing a third of a year? The yearly deficit 2T but showing 697B?
I don’t know if that’s correct but I’m wondering how the hell both defense and net interest are below SS. I thought defense was something like $800 billion with interest even higher. Did the geniuses at the Treasury screw up? Where does the $340 billion figure come from? I wish it were that low.
No more for defense--who's crazy enough or strong enough to attack the US.?One of the few positive changes made by Trump is to rename the DOD what it really was during WWII and has been since 1950: the Department of War. The "Great" in MAGA is no longer production, construction, invention, trade, education, peace, etc. promised in the 2024 campaign. It's now intimidation, name-calling, force, bullying, theft, bombing, killing, etc.
I didn’t say the defense spending was good so take your rant somewhere else.
“It’s now intimidation, name-calling, force, bullying, theft, bombing, killing, etc.”
Yeah I guess none of those things happened with previous admins. The only thing Trump has added is name-calling.