Wars are fundamentally inflationary; you don’t worry about the long-term damage done by money printing, not when you’re in a shooting war. You can’t even stop to wonder why you’re shooting at all.
Heavens to Betsy! You’re right Bill, inflation is wearing expensive cologne, and President Trump gives economic forecasts the way toddlers perform brain surgery. Oil’s going up, five minutes later…oil’s going down, ten minutes later…we’ve created Schrödinger’s Barrel. It’s simultaneously $40 and $400 until CNBC opens the box.
The Administration doesn’t have an energy policy, they’ve got emotional support charts. Every cabinet meeting sounds like a séance. Minister, what’s happening? “The crystal ball says maybe.” The Ministry of Finance has replaced economists with Magic 8 Balls because at least the toy has the decency to admit: “Reply hazy.”
Trump keeps declaring victory before the battle starts. “We have achieved total stability!” Meanwhile the entire economy is held together with duct tape, expired coupons, and three interns whispering, “Please don’t refresh Bloomberg.” Then he treats geopolitics like he’s drunk in a supermarket parking lot.
“Let’s poke everybody!”
Neighbor annoyed.
“Poke again!”
Oil spikes.
“Poke harder!”
Shipping collapses.
Then Donny walks to the podium wearing the expression of a man who microwaved aluminum foil.
“Nobody could’ve predicted this.”
Really Pal?
You kicked a hornet’s nest with steel-toe boots and now you’re surprised the bees unionized.
The military’s strategy is basically:
Step One:
Create catastrophe.
Step Two:
Commission a study explaining why catastrophe occurred.
Step Three:
Blame Iran, China, or the Russkies.
Repeat until treasury resembles a haunted vending machine.
The budget?
Every year:
Income:
$5
Expenses:
About the size of Jupiter
Deficit:
Faith
The US doesn’t print money anymore. It photocopies optimism.
The new $250 dollar bill has President Trump’s portrait smiling like a casino owner watching tourists mortgage their kidneys. They call it quantitative easing.
But on a serious note, I love the USA. It’s optimistic, dangerously optimistic.
People think every crisis is temporary.
The fires?
Temporary.
The recession?
Temporary.
The volcano in Parliament?
Mostly decorative.
President Trump says,
“We’re opening the Gates of Hell”
Seems unnecessary, couldn’t you just leave them unlocked? That’s Government efficiency.
I also enjoy when experts says,
“Nobody knows anything.” Then they charge enormous consulting fees.
Imagine hiring a plumber.
“Can you fix my sink Sir?”
“I have absolutely no idea.”
“Fantastic, here’s $200,000.”
People cheer every prediction.
Oil up!
Applause.
Oil down!
More applause.
Oil sideways!
Standing ovation.
At some point they’re just clapping because their hands haven’t lost money yet.
My favorite part is President Trump keeps saying everything is under control. That’s usually what a man says while riding a piano off a cliff. The current Administration doesn’t have an economic model. It has trust issues with gravity.
Thanks for the history. There is way too little of leaders studying history. Human nature never changes and its an excellent way to keep from committing mistakes like we (the US) seems to do over and over.
I've read from several sources that China cut way back on oil imports and lived off of reserves. One motivation was to avoid high prices of imports. And apparently they had stock up and needed to use reserves. This by itself may have been a major reason for the lack of $200/oil as many projected.
And I read China is sitting on 1.4 Billion/bbl in reserves. As understood when others were thinking weeks China was thinking years ! Talk about the dupes of War. Go Trump go get him boy, go get him, come on get him boy. Doped up, propgandized, psychiatric drugs, delusions and perpetual hoots at the state alter. Brain amputees.
I think there is a major chess match going on right now. Iran is nothing more than a pawn. Moves are being made that people are not even aware of. Remember when the Pakistani's were brokering in the peace deals. Where in the hell did they go? We believe the Iranian people are not acting because they fear the IRGC. I say bullshit. They should be more afraid of us, and sooner or later we are going to have to make them believe that. Food and Water shortages are the spark plug for the engine to get them moving to remove or expose the IRGC. If it doesn't then we know where they stand. I would have thought that the killing of the 40000 during the uprising would have provided enough motivation, but I think we are going to have to give them more. There are no deals or negotiations that are going to work or last, as long as the IRGC is in charge. If we are going to provide any help or support after this is over, it only comes about when the uranium is ours and the IRGC is in the ground. You don't need to take out the entire country, isolate areas, provide the spark, wait for movement, then destroy them. If they don't react, we slowly take the country piece by piece.
Human reasoning seems to have no actual reasoning behind it. It appears that people who know nothing at all are running the world. We could probably fix this… if we knew anything at all.
Kevin, the people actually running the world are interrelated by birth, they are all working for the same purpose; They want their stuff back, war, pestilence, followed by ignorance, and serfdom. Trump is like the annoying guy at the beach setting his towel close to your's then blasting a radio. Guys like this eventually move on, and the wheels keep on turning.
The corruption is so deep...historically the founding fathers and the revolution that established America is what stopped Europe from carving up America, into another battleground of endless wars. The kings of Europe lost their last frontier of serfdom. Tour Spain, every palace and church was funded by plundering the Americas.
More to that thought to be sure. The opposite of hubris is humility that which most cannot comprehend. But for those that do, personal piece is their lifelong dividend.
Interesting response worthy of the read. However, my point regarding the hubris-humility continuum was not related to leadership, but rather, to the nature of personal peace that is augmented by true humility. But to your point good leaders are of both the humble or hubris stripe. Most political leaders are narcissists and some have been our best leaders.
Well guys I came into today's session at the close of business. I read through all the comments as of 17:10 EST. WOW what a circus. I like Bill's history lesson but we all know HUMANS NEVER learn from history. "Sometimes" I think this whole mess is a big exercise in stirring the pot to keep everyone upset and out of focus. Someone is making a lot of MONEY off this global exercise, and I don't expect it to end soon!
Jim, almost all European royal families are related, a fact resulting from centuries of strategic intra-marriage designed to forge political alliances, consolidate power, and maintain bloodlines within a narrow elite. The great reset defined; The sheep have been very productive it's time for a major bloodletting. New barons and lords will be appointed to mop up, build the high towers and direct the pawns in a new 100 years war. The kings and queens want their stuff back with improvements. I'm sure when the smoke clears those remaining will worship a new god with a new narrative loosely based on the bible. The new religion will pronounce the royals all rule by divine authority granted by the head of the religion. The problem with freedom is in the serfs (tenants) on the royal land tend form the wrong opinions overtime, America took advantage of an absentee landlord.
Just known the Jews will be blamed, because they always are.
Yes, Jim, I am pretty sure that the chaos is deliberate- making money off the chaos is certainly part of it but it's not the end game. Maybe the White House thinks it can control things as they appear to be unraveling; I think they've got the tiger by the tail
After participating in Vietnam, where the politicians didn't let us "finish the job", this looks to me like another political game! Although I voted for Trump three times, I believe he doesn't understand how Iran's leadership thinks. Yes, he has a Tiger by the tail and if he doesn't kill it, we all will loose.
Those in history who have prevailed over Islam did so by striking a moral blow that was not soon forgotten, then treating the wounded and those who surrendered as the Muslims had treated their victims. (King Baldwin and King John III Sobieski) Those who were spared hunkered down in their lands, waiting for their next opportunity.
I may be wrong, but I believe the quote is/was “ a good man knows his limitations”. Otherwise, I believe you’ve captured the current situation- thank you
The lesson regarding Islam has been lost to electronic media. The world forgets, history repeats the consequences of a single man creating a cult of personality. A cavalcade of Persian and Roman emperors, followed by popes, spawned from all of Rome's bad ideas. Then one day a single illiterate immoral and damaged individual, dispossessed (from the family business) decided why work when it so much easier to steal. Islam was born, a religion based on everything Western thinking deemed immoral, and unproductive. A religion where being bad is good, where ignorance is rewarded, where knowing the truth is punished. A religion where a free man (sometimes) willingly pledges their existence to become a slave to Allah rewarded with the title Muslim.
The Jews tried to warn us, Thomas Jefferson tried to warn us, Winston Churchill tried to warn us. There's was no lack of evidence in the historical record, in the first 100 years after Muhammad's death well armed Arabs spilled out of Arabia looting raping, enslaving, and murdering while forcefully converting 1/2 the world's then population. In one account describes the gore in the streets of Morocco running 6 inches deep. The Fez is the color of dried blood to honor this event, where the pirates celebrated their victory by dipping their hats into the blood of their victims.
I'm not here to scare you, simply another voice crying look around you. We've allow Muslims to be imported in mass numbers from violent subsharian areas of the world allowing these to be settled within key cities. This while we have stepped into a 1500 year old civil war between Shia and Sunni Muslims ever raging in the middle east. Islam teaches there are only two ways to enter paradise, die in battle fighting the infidel (everyone not them including every peaceful Muslim) and to have been born from Adam's right side (read the Quran) in short there is no love, life, or peace taught by Islam only misery and death. Muhammad records in the Quran, a peaceful Muslim is an apostate and as such should be killed. It is the religion of "Rest in Peace" for the Jihadist, and hell for the rest of humanity. The West can save itself but not with compromise, or peace treaties. The only way to stop Islam besides God returning, is to quarantine the religion, stop selling arms, military parts, buying their oil, stop allowing them to enter or travel within the West. Poland remembers, China knows you cannot allow freedom to those who will use it to destroy your culture. The Roman church was complicit actually aiding in the destruction of Constantine's City using Islam as a proxy and the rise of the Eastern Orthodox church was ended. Today the Vatican promotes all that will destroy the West, they do so because they are Rome the City of god you can be guaranteed when the times comes Rome will have its sheep stand down.
Bill, It's mostly about jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. Not so much the stock markets. Billions (trillions) spent on U.S. conflicts overseas create U.S. jobs. The Pentagon, if you count the millions of defense contractors and subcontractors in addition to its employees, is the largest employer by far. It dwarfs Walmart, Amazon, General Motors, Ford, AT&T, Verizon, etc. So all this talk about the Pentagon spending billions on this latest conflict makes uninformed Americans think all that money is blown overseas. No, it's overwhelmingly spent to keep jobs going in the U.S., by building more weapons, for example. Where do Americans think over $1T annually goes anyway? The Pentagon could never politically justify spending that kind of money if it weren't for the jobs aspect.
When you think about it, how many private-sector physicians, nurses, therapists, medical techs, health care administrators, health care infrastructure support personnel, etc. would lose their jobs if the $1.4T spent annually on Medicare, Medicaid, & CHIP was slashed? I mean, if you add all the local and state govt. jobs to all the jobs supported by federal defense, medical, & welfare spending, about 1 in 4 Americans are employed directly or indirectly by govt.
Your good friend, Addison Wiggin, recently talked about the jobs aspect, and he nailed it. So when you rail against the debt, you need to return to what your strongest suit always was, and ask: what jobs create true wealth? Or what govt. programs create true wealth? Or how is true wealth created?
You have shown readers how building true wealth is how you build a strong country. You have abandoned this matter over the last couple of years, which is a shame. You introduced so many of us to the true wealth building concept, and at least I judge every dollar spent by that measuring stick. Unfortunately, the U.S. is so heavily indebted, it has no choice but to borrow and spend to keep unemployment down until the bubble bursts. Then the Fed swoops in with trillions to keep the jobs in place, and hyper inflation occurs. Once this happens, the almighty suburbanites who decide elections are going to have to do something because they will finally be negatively impacted. Then things could get very scary.
Circus all of it! If the information is correct that the dollar has lost 30% of its value in the last 6 years then the demise is accelerating and all this day to day claptrap won’t make a bit of difference. Wonder which president will adorn the $1M dollar bill. Cheers
"Then, something even more unexpected. Money went across the Rhine to Germany...where the un-earned increases to its money supply caused consumer price inflation. And then, Germans used their new money to buy French-made goods. France wasn’t crippled at all; her economy boomed."
The world would likely be far better off if it wasn't for human hubris. That I agree with, myself included. Econ 101 implies Supply and Demand determine economic outcomes, sometimes. It seems a little more likely they determine human action for a little while, until some different forces are brought up. Like "AI is going to put everyone out of their jobs!" until, the oligarchs need to borrow, society goes NIMBY, banks stop lending because the oligarchs have been spending too much they don't have, society realizes their investment in each other is circular, known from history to result in collapse, maybe the MAGS are overvalued? So now what?
Since we have seriously harmed but not defeated the Persians, I suspect some serious reparations will be necessary to re-acquire even the strained relationship before the "casus belli."
Heavens to Betsy! You’re right Bill, inflation is wearing expensive cologne, and President Trump gives economic forecasts the way toddlers perform brain surgery. Oil’s going up, five minutes later…oil’s going down, ten minutes later…we’ve created Schrödinger’s Barrel. It’s simultaneously $40 and $400 until CNBC opens the box.
The Administration doesn’t have an energy policy, they’ve got emotional support charts. Every cabinet meeting sounds like a séance. Minister, what’s happening? “The crystal ball says maybe.” The Ministry of Finance has replaced economists with Magic 8 Balls because at least the toy has the decency to admit: “Reply hazy.”
Trump keeps declaring victory before the battle starts. “We have achieved total stability!” Meanwhile the entire economy is held together with duct tape, expired coupons, and three interns whispering, “Please don’t refresh Bloomberg.” Then he treats geopolitics like he’s drunk in a supermarket parking lot.
“Let’s poke everybody!”
Neighbor annoyed.
“Poke again!”
Oil spikes.
“Poke harder!”
Shipping collapses.
Then Donny walks to the podium wearing the expression of a man who microwaved aluminum foil.
“Nobody could’ve predicted this.”
Really Pal?
You kicked a hornet’s nest with steel-toe boots and now you’re surprised the bees unionized.
The military’s strategy is basically:
Step One:
Create catastrophe.
Step Two:
Commission a study explaining why catastrophe occurred.
Step Three:
Blame Iran, China, or the Russkies.
Repeat until treasury resembles a haunted vending machine.
The budget?
Every year:
Income:
$5
Expenses:
About the size of Jupiter
Deficit:
Faith
The US doesn’t print money anymore. It photocopies optimism.
The new $250 dollar bill has President Trump’s portrait smiling like a casino owner watching tourists mortgage their kidneys. They call it quantitative easing.
But on a serious note, I love the USA. It’s optimistic, dangerously optimistic.
People think every crisis is temporary.
The fires?
Temporary.
The recession?
Temporary.
The volcano in Parliament?
Mostly decorative.
President Trump says,
“We’re opening the Gates of Hell”
Seems unnecessary, couldn’t you just leave them unlocked? That’s Government efficiency.
I also enjoy when experts says,
“Nobody knows anything.” Then they charge enormous consulting fees.
Imagine hiring a plumber.
“Can you fix my sink Sir?”
“I have absolutely no idea.”
“Fantastic, here’s $200,000.”
People cheer every prediction.
Oil up!
Applause.
Oil down!
More applause.
Oil sideways!
Standing ovation.
At some point they’re just clapping because their hands haven’t lost money yet.
My favorite part is President Trump keeps saying everything is under control. That’s usually what a man says while riding a piano off a cliff. The current Administration doesn’t have an economic model. It has trust issues with gravity.
Thanks for the history. There is way too little of leaders studying history. Human nature never changes and its an excellent way to keep from committing mistakes like we (the US) seems to do over and over.
I've read from several sources that China cut way back on oil imports and lived off of reserves. One motivation was to avoid high prices of imports. And apparently they had stock up and needed to use reserves. This by itself may have been a major reason for the lack of $200/oil as many projected.
And I read China is sitting on 1.4 Billion/bbl in reserves. As understood when others were thinking weeks China was thinking years ! Talk about the dupes of War. Go Trump go get him boy, go get him, come on get him boy. Doped up, propgandized, psychiatric drugs, delusions and perpetual hoots at the state alter. Brain amputees.
I think there is a major chess match going on right now. Iran is nothing more than a pawn. Moves are being made that people are not even aware of. Remember when the Pakistani's were brokering in the peace deals. Where in the hell did they go? We believe the Iranian people are not acting because they fear the IRGC. I say bullshit. They should be more afraid of us, and sooner or later we are going to have to make them believe that. Food and Water shortages are the spark plug for the engine to get them moving to remove or expose the IRGC. If it doesn't then we know where they stand. I would have thought that the killing of the 40000 during the uprising would have provided enough motivation, but I think we are going to have to give them more. There are no deals or negotiations that are going to work or last, as long as the IRGC is in charge. If we are going to provide any help or support after this is over, it only comes about when the uranium is ours and the IRGC is in the ground. You don't need to take out the entire country, isolate areas, provide the spark, wait for movement, then destroy them. If they don't react, we slowly take the country piece by piece.
Sorry to disappoint you. The US will not, as in the last 80 years, win this reckless war against a country which posed no threat to the US people.
What gives the US the right to Iran's uranium and putting the IRGC in the ground. Sounds to me like theft and murder
WTF-BART SIMPSON KNOWS MORE!
Andre & k
Have a nice day!
Human reasoning seems to have no actual reasoning behind it. It appears that people who know nothing at all are running the world. We could probably fix this… if we knew anything at all.
Kevin, the people actually running the world are interrelated by birth, they are all working for the same purpose; They want their stuff back, war, pestilence, followed by ignorance, and serfdom. Trump is like the annoying guy at the beach setting his towel close to your's then blasting a radio. Guys like this eventually move on, and the wheels keep on turning.
The corruption is so deep...historically the founding fathers and the revolution that established America is what stopped Europe from carving up America, into another battleground of endless wars. The kings of Europe lost their last frontier of serfdom. Tour Spain, every palace and church was funded by plundering the Americas.
Plunder is definitely the operative word here. Great observations. Thanks.
The greatest threat to successful leadership may be hubris.
More to that thought to be sure. The opposite of hubris is humility that which most cannot comprehend. But for those that do, personal piece is their lifelong dividend.
Interesting response worthy of the read. However, my point regarding the hubris-humility continuum was not related to leadership, but rather, to the nature of personal peace that is augmented by true humility. But to your point good leaders are of both the humble or hubris stripe. Most political leaders are narcissists and some have been our best leaders.
Well guys I came into today's session at the close of business. I read through all the comments as of 17:10 EST. WOW what a circus. I like Bill's history lesson but we all know HUMANS NEVER learn from history. "Sometimes" I think this whole mess is a big exercise in stirring the pot to keep everyone upset and out of focus. Someone is making a lot of MONEY off this global exercise, and I don't expect it to end soon!
Jim Marshall
Jim, almost all European royal families are related, a fact resulting from centuries of strategic intra-marriage designed to forge political alliances, consolidate power, and maintain bloodlines within a narrow elite. The great reset defined; The sheep have been very productive it's time for a major bloodletting. New barons and lords will be appointed to mop up, build the high towers and direct the pawns in a new 100 years war. The kings and queens want their stuff back with improvements. I'm sure when the smoke clears those remaining will worship a new god with a new narrative loosely based on the bible. The new religion will pronounce the royals all rule by divine authority granted by the head of the religion. The problem with freedom is in the serfs (tenants) on the royal land tend form the wrong opinions overtime, America took advantage of an absentee landlord.
Just known the Jews will be blamed, because they always are.
Yes, Jim, I am pretty sure that the chaos is deliberate- making money off the chaos is certainly part of it but it's not the end game. Maybe the White House thinks it can control things as they appear to be unraveling; I think they've got the tiger by the tail
After participating in Vietnam, where the politicians didn't let us "finish the job", this looks to me like another political game! Although I voted for Trump three times, I believe he doesn't understand how Iran's leadership thinks. Yes, he has a Tiger by the tail and if he doesn't kill it, we all will loose.
Those in history who have prevailed over Islam did so by striking a moral blow that was not soon forgotten, then treating the wounded and those who surrendered as the Muslims had treated their victims. (King Baldwin and King John III Sobieski) Those who were spared hunkered down in their lands, waiting for their next opportunity.
I may be wrong, but I believe the quote is/was “ a good man knows his limitations”. Otherwise, I believe you’ve captured the current situation- thank you
The lesson regarding Islam has been lost to electronic media. The world forgets, history repeats the consequences of a single man creating a cult of personality. A cavalcade of Persian and Roman emperors, followed by popes, spawned from all of Rome's bad ideas. Then one day a single illiterate immoral and damaged individual, dispossessed (from the family business) decided why work when it so much easier to steal. Islam was born, a religion based on everything Western thinking deemed immoral, and unproductive. A religion where being bad is good, where ignorance is rewarded, where knowing the truth is punished. A religion where a free man (sometimes) willingly pledges their existence to become a slave to Allah rewarded with the title Muslim.
The Jews tried to warn us, Thomas Jefferson tried to warn us, Winston Churchill tried to warn us. There's was no lack of evidence in the historical record, in the first 100 years after Muhammad's death well armed Arabs spilled out of Arabia looting raping, enslaving, and murdering while forcefully converting 1/2 the world's then population. In one account describes the gore in the streets of Morocco running 6 inches deep. The Fez is the color of dried blood to honor this event, where the pirates celebrated their victory by dipping their hats into the blood of their victims.
I'm not here to scare you, simply another voice crying look around you. We've allow Muslims to be imported in mass numbers from violent subsharian areas of the world allowing these to be settled within key cities. This while we have stepped into a 1500 year old civil war between Shia and Sunni Muslims ever raging in the middle east. Islam teaches there are only two ways to enter paradise, die in battle fighting the infidel (everyone not them including every peaceful Muslim) and to have been born from Adam's right side (read the Quran) in short there is no love, life, or peace taught by Islam only misery and death. Muhammad records in the Quran, a peaceful Muslim is an apostate and as such should be killed. It is the religion of "Rest in Peace" for the Jihadist, and hell for the rest of humanity. The West can save itself but not with compromise, or peace treaties. The only way to stop Islam besides God returning, is to quarantine the religion, stop selling arms, military parts, buying their oil, stop allowing them to enter or travel within the West. Poland remembers, China knows you cannot allow freedom to those who will use it to destroy your culture. The Roman church was complicit actually aiding in the destruction of Constantine's City using Islam as a proxy and the rise of the Eastern Orthodox church was ended. Today the Vatican promotes all that will destroy the West, they do so because they are Rome the City of god you can be guaranteed when the times comes Rome will have its sheep stand down.
Bill, It's mostly about jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. Not so much the stock markets. Billions (trillions) spent on U.S. conflicts overseas create U.S. jobs. The Pentagon, if you count the millions of defense contractors and subcontractors in addition to its employees, is the largest employer by far. It dwarfs Walmart, Amazon, General Motors, Ford, AT&T, Verizon, etc. So all this talk about the Pentagon spending billions on this latest conflict makes uninformed Americans think all that money is blown overseas. No, it's overwhelmingly spent to keep jobs going in the U.S., by building more weapons, for example. Where do Americans think over $1T annually goes anyway? The Pentagon could never politically justify spending that kind of money if it weren't for the jobs aspect.
When you think about it, how many private-sector physicians, nurses, therapists, medical techs, health care administrators, health care infrastructure support personnel, etc. would lose their jobs if the $1.4T spent annually on Medicare, Medicaid, & CHIP was slashed? I mean, if you add all the local and state govt. jobs to all the jobs supported by federal defense, medical, & welfare spending, about 1 in 4 Americans are employed directly or indirectly by govt.
Your good friend, Addison Wiggin, recently talked about the jobs aspect, and he nailed it. So when you rail against the debt, you need to return to what your strongest suit always was, and ask: what jobs create true wealth? Or what govt. programs create true wealth? Or how is true wealth created?
You have shown readers how building true wealth is how you build a strong country. You have abandoned this matter over the last couple of years, which is a shame. You introduced so many of us to the true wealth building concept, and at least I judge every dollar spent by that measuring stick. Unfortunately, the U.S. is so heavily indebted, it has no choice but to borrow and spend to keep unemployment down until the bubble bursts. Then the Fed swoops in with trillions to keep the jobs in place, and hyper inflation occurs. Once this happens, the almighty suburbanites who decide elections are going to have to do something because they will finally be negatively impacted. Then things could get very scary.
Circus all of it! If the information is correct that the dollar has lost 30% of its value in the last 6 years then the demise is accelerating and all this day to day claptrap won’t make a bit of difference. Wonder which president will adorn the $1M dollar bill. Cheers
Hell is a one way gate, the "monsters" have a choice like the rest of us...
Me thinks that they are one of many. But I do not know for sure. Just My observation from My retired arm chair.
"Then, something even more unexpected. Money went across the Rhine to Germany...where the un-earned increases to its money supply caused consumer price inflation. And then, Germans used their new money to buy French-made goods. France wasn’t crippled at all; her economy boomed."
M2, the velocity of money?
‘Nobody knows anything,’ sayeth the sage."
Keynes did!
The past looks back...
The future focuses forward.
Doubt is the compass pointing in every direction at once.
The world would likely be far better off if it wasn't for human hubris. That I agree with, myself included. Econ 101 implies Supply and Demand determine economic outcomes, sometimes. It seems a little more likely they determine human action for a little while, until some different forces are brought up. Like "AI is going to put everyone out of their jobs!" until, the oligarchs need to borrow, society goes NIMBY, banks stop lending because the oligarchs have been spending too much they don't have, society realizes their investment in each other is circular, known from history to result in collapse, maybe the MAGS are overvalued? So now what?
Since we have seriously harmed but not defeated the Persians, I suspect some serious reparations will be necessary to re-acquire even the strained relationship before the "casus belli."