Source: Getty Images, US Treasury Secretary John Connally
‘The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.’ That’s what then US Treasury Secretary John Connally privately told members of the G-10 at a meeting in Rome in late 1971. This was after the ‘Nixon Shock’ in August, when the US dollar was no longer redeemable for gold to foreigners. A 20% devaluation in the dollar ensued.
We bring back Bill’s key energy, resources, and mining expert Byron King for a public discussion thread on Thursday, April 14th, at 1pm. We’ve asked Byron to discuss if we are, as Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Pozsar recently wrote, in a Bretton Woods III Monetary system—a new system where economic power shifts to commodity producers, who may no longer have to sell their natural resources in US dollars (our commodity, yourproblem).
Byron’s here to discuss the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and its potential effect on oil and gas prices. He can also discuss the recent spike in fertilizer prices and what that may mean for consumers (and investors) this summer. He’s also here to discuss whatever YOU’D like to discuss.
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Byron will begin reviewing and answering in real time at 1pm EST on Thursday, April 14th. He’ll get to as many topics as he can.
This is the first of several opportunities over the next week for all our readers to see what kind of research and content is available to paying subscribers. Paying subscribers received advanced notice of this thread. And we’ve made it a goal to arrange a more personal private briefing (via Zoom or Webinar) once every other month for our subscribers. We thought rather than telling you what happens behind the curtain, we’d show you. Enjoy!
PS Yes, it’s THAT John Connally. Connally was the governor of Texas and sitting in the front passenger seat of President Kennedy’s limousine when JFK was shot on November 26th, 1963. Connally was shot in the wrist.
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Did none of our elite geniuses see that telling Mr. Putin he was no longer invited to trade in dollars that he might...just might seek another medium in which to trade? And did NOBODY consider that if a new medium could be found that the real bully on the block - the USD - might get kicked to the curb? I suppose not because if any of the puppeteers had a lick of sense they'd have realized that the last domino is their power to print unlimited money. I suppose there really is no accounting for stupid. I'm buyin' gold man.
I think that Mr Putin is way ahead of the herd. He's been accumulating gold for Russia since at least 2014. Here in the West, gold is disdained as a monetary tool. Friend Jim Rickards has written books on the subject. I think more people ought to read up on the matter. Time to dust off those old library books on the Gold Standard, if modern librarians haven't sent them to the landfill. And yes, when people responsible for administering the so-called "global reserve currency" exclude entire nations from using it, it is more than likely that the outsiders will form their own new system. Russia has prepped for this over many years. (Russia-China, along with numerous allies.)
I read the other day that when the people representing the Fed heard about the decisions to kick Russia out of SWIFT and block their bank accounts, they protested strongly (but internally). In any case, the decision had already been made - and announced publicly - by the politicians who are ignorant of anything but posturing, so the Fed's objections were ignored, and the Fed was told to "shut up and soldier." I can't confirm that this is actually true, but it seems to fit the facts. Certainly the majority of the people in the Cabinet do not appear capable of thinking with anything but their political ambitions.
And I realize that your reference to "elite geniuses" was sarcasm, but if there is anyone around Biden who is really intelligent, I fail to see it. I would describe most of them as "A genius in their own mind."
It seems to me that professional monetary managers would not want to wreck the credibility of SWIFT. While politicians tend not to understand complex systems, and break them all the time. It's one of the reasons why we cannot have nice things.
As usual, those geniuses fail to consider the law of unintended consequences. This decision accelerates the inevitable destruction of the dollar and leads to multiple possible outcomes. It could be another country offering a gold or bitcoin backed currency. The USD could simply recede into a smaller part of a basket of reserve currencies. A group of countries could combine to offer support of a new or existing currency. Many alternatives all of which lead to other currencies more powerful than the USD. As we've been reminded repeatedly, fiat currencies always eventually die. Those in charge have always acted to protect their own power and thereby grow their wealth. I expect them to survive the coming crises while the rest are crushed.
The world could trade seashells if everyone agreed that seashells were a useful method of account and storing wealth. In other words, usefulness of a currency is based on collective credibility. And when billions (with a "B") of people see that the US will cancel their dollars in a minute if/when something happens of which US doesn't approve, that credibility begins to fracture. Yes, of course the Ukraine war (aka "special military operation") is a horrible thing. But if you are holding gazillions of $$$, what are you supposed to think? "Just this ONE time, right?" Well, maybe not. Maybe you begin to trade out of dollars and into harder assets -- gold, silver, other real things like metals, land, etc.
I think the 'world' media operates on very outdated 'intelligence' which is only useful in a time/space context and history although historically relevant is not a major factor in present/current decisions. The current worlds financial/political and social conditions/status are in a constant state of flux since humans of all persuasions/nationalities/religions are repugnant to each other and value their own (language currency sports intelligence etc) above that of others .. so after a generation of globalization and rampant greed and depletion of resources the present situation of confrontation between the have's and have less but want more, is also very understandable so why all the fuss .. the real UN-planned event was the public release of blockchain technology and it's subsequent use as a means for the largest criminal syndicates to hide/launder cash into digital bits of nothing that undermines the entire international economic system of planet earth .. yes the post WW2/Bretton Woods world is coming to a close and of course a new world order will arise .. what's so bad about that? well yes the western powers will no longer be able to control the wealth/league of nations which is still just a facade for those in power to pretend to be what they are not so bring it on and the sooner the better it will be fun to see the next phase if the planet's eco systems will even allow it ..?
Greetings, everyone. Byron here. Taking a head start on the 1300 Q&A. First things first... I am NOT giving personal investment advice. (Have to say that, per the lawyers.) I'll do my best to address as many points as possible. If I offer anything that sounds like a financial opinion, let alone mention any companies, it's just that -- one man's viewpoint. It is not a recommendation or a trackable portfolio listing. And also, as a "retired list" senior US Navy officer, I'm also obliged to note that nothing I say regarding the current state of military affairs -- US, allied, Russ-Ukraine or whatever -- is "official." I do NOT speak on behalf of US Navy, US Dept of Defense or US Govt. And with those formalities on the table, I'll now dive down and address items below. Best to all, incl to note that it's Good Friday/Passover tomorrow, and Easter weekend upcoming. Be well, and blessings to everyone. BWK
Byron, My wife was a SWO for 27 years, retired as a Captain. She's a national officer in the Naval Order of the United States. We probably have many things in common, besides your great essays.
Thank you for your kind words, and complements to the Captain. SWO-wise, it's quite a day in naval history, as a major Russian combatant has sunk in the Black Sea -- per accounts, due to hits by cruise missiles. Nothing like that since the Falklands War.
Byron, If you are interested in Naval History, and have time, you might be interested in the Naval Order. Mostly naval officers. As a civilian, I've really learned to love the Navy. thanks to my wife and meeting some of the best people there are. You would make a good speaker at the Tampa Bay Commandery
Hi dale. You just need to post your comment or question here and Byron will respond if and when he can. There is no live audio or video component to this discussion thread format. It's all text, which means you can come back and read it at your convenience.
What most Westerners don't seem to understand is organizations like NATO and the UN don't stop wars they're the means to make a small dispute morph into a world war. If USA had never entered into WW1, WW2 would never have happened. All the combatant nation were essentially on the verge of bankruptcy. Peace would have prevailed with well a negotiated end to hostilities.
USA entering into WW1 caused a false conclusion no peace was established Germany was economically destroyed. With seemingly no hope of normalcy the first strong man promising to restore real money to the economy was ushered in. The Nazis' replaced the worthless paper with 80% silver coinage. Once his hold on power was established and blessed by the Pope in Rome the silver was replaced with brass. (First Reich was the Roman Empire, second was the (not Weimar it was never an empire) Holy Roman Empire, The Third Reich was German Empire
Without the US petrol dollar controlling the world's currency (established by Nixon with the Saud family) there will be no need for USA to act as the military protectorate of the Saud fiefdom. That should get the bombs flowing from Iran to Saudi Arabia. The first to be launched from Iran will target Mecca not Israel.
I know it might seem hard to believe but Joe Biden and the US citizenry supporting Ukraine has set the wheels to WW3 in motion. All it will take is a misguided drone strike from Ukraine with a drone supplied by USA or a contrived event like the Gulf of Tonkin incident or the sinking of the Lusitiania. China is much the same, they have long memories like the Boxer Rebellion where USA was protecting the Opium trade in China. The West got a huge part of the Chinese population addicted to Opium to spark trade of Chinese goods into the West.
We never learn this time around we are going to be sorry for our blunder into the East.
When WWI (The Great War) broke out, all parties ran out of serious money within about six months. Cash flows dried up. Resources of every kind became scarce -- mine output, mills, factories, energy, farms/food, etc. And it was US "credit" -- OK'ed by one Woodrow Wilson -- which kept the war afloat. Okay, yes... THe parties fought because leadership wanted to fight. But US credit was a massive subsidy to the Western Allies.
Notice any similarity to Ukraine today? Asking for a friend.
Ukraine will be hopelessly in debt to the world banksters after the war is over. If Russian wins the banksters loose this is why I know our intervention into Ukraine is setting the foundation for WW3. The banksters would rather see the world a flame then loose their investment in enslaving Ukraine.
Sorry to step on you religious affiliations but there are numerous pictures of Adolf Hitler receiving the Nazi salute from various cardinals. Mussolini at the behest of Germany granted the papacy the Vatican as a sovereign Nation status. To think this was done at no cost is rather entertaining in comparison to history surrounding the Holy Roman Empire, and its' rising directly and seamlessly from the Roman Empire. I direct you to prophecy of Daniel in relation to the dream of king Nebakanezer's statue. The last empire was rise from the one before (the feet of clay) and trample the whole earth underfoot. I've done extensive travel the Roman eagle and religion are found in all corners of the planet.
I understand why you think me blasphemous, in the past the church would have delighted in applying one of their many godly torture devices to dissuade me from speaking so freely. The article attached is actually a very good explaintion of the events. https://medium.com/exploring-history/hitler-and-the-two-popes-c9968c090d8b
Time will tell as to our intervention in Russian affairs. Knowing a bit of Russian history might change your mind. The Russians are a hearty bunch the end result of the West attempting to isolate the nation will end badly. What restraint would Russia have against using nukes if their attempt to secure their boarders was too fail?
USA has a long history of meddling in the affairs of Russia. For example Russian's relatively peaceful incursion into Afghanistan was met with USA renting the Taliban from Pakistan. We armed and trained the Taliban and directed these to engage in a proxy war against Russia. When the Russian's left the well armed and trained Taliban did what all well armed and trained Muslims have done since 600 CE (when Muhammad made up the religion) they went back to Pakistan and destabilized the government.
Now where did the Iranians get those nuclear reactors? Oh yes we signed a nonproliferation treaty with the Soviet Union we promised to stop enriching uranium for bomb purposes.
No worry USA simply built a reactor in Iran our ally at the time and how did that workout?
Our missiles in Turkey were met with Russian missiles in Cuba. Kennedy looked the hero when only half the story was told.
In fact and as can be learned from our own government the Ukrainian party we backed to overthrow the people's elected government are racists. Their flag the media has done a smack up job of hiding is emblazoned with a swastika. I believe the Pope just spoke on his support of the war and the Ukrainian governments efforts to hold onto power. If you believe they are fighting for freedom and not to hold onto power, I direct you to Washington, DC
I suggest you sharpen up on Western history. Quote from Wikipedia:In the 16th century the Portuguese became aware of the lucrative medicinal and recreational trade of opium into China, and from their factories across Asia chose to supply the Canton System, to satisfy both the medicinal and the recreational use of the drug. By 1729 the Yongzheng Emperor had criminalised the new recreational smoking of opium in his empire. Following the 1764 Battle of Buxar, the British East India Company (EIC) gained control of tax collection, along with the former Mughal Empire opium monopoly in the province of Bengal. The East India Company Act, 1793 formally establlished this monopoly.[14] The EIC was £28 million in debt as a result of the Indian war and the insatiable demand for Chinese tea in the British market, which had to be paid for in silver.[15][16]
To redress the imbalance, the EIC began auctions of opium, which was gathered in taxes, in Calcutta. Profits soared. Since importation of opium into China had been banned by Chinese law, the EIC established an indirect trading scheme partially relying on legal markets and leveraging illicit ones. British merchants would buy tea in Canton (Guangzhou) on credit, and balance their debts by selling opium at auction in Calcutta, then transport it to the Chinese coast aboard British ships, sell it to native merchants who would sell it in China. According to 19th Century sinologist Edward Parker, there were four types of opium smuggled into China from India: kung pan t'ou (公班土, gongban tu or "Patna"); Pak t'ou (白土, bai tu or "Malwa"); Persian, Kem fa t'ou (金花土, jinhua tu) and the "smaller kong pan", which was of a "dearer sort", i.e. more expensive.[17] A description of the cargo aboard Hercules at Lintin in July 1833 distinguished between "new" and "old" Patna, "new" and "old" Benares, and Malwa; the accounting also specifies the number of chests of each type, and the price per chest. The "chests"[B] contained small balls of opium that had originated in the Indian provinces of Bengal and Madras.
I believe you replied just before I added a link to confirm the history of Hitler and the two popes Xl and Xll. I'll direct you to that article and links.
The reason USA was attacked on 911 was not a mystery the very same Muslim authored the previous truck bomb in the basement garage a few years prior. Afghanistan had no hand in 911 that was funded by the Saud family, as are most all Muslim terrorist activities. Again USA made a deal with the devil in that the Saud family is a member of the most radical form of Islam.
The reason peace will never exist in the Middle East (until Yahowah returns) is lost on the West. There has been a religious political war raging since Muhammad died. Sunni against Shia from time to time the West has stumbled into the fray including the British who after defeating the Ottoman empire carved up the region into nations with no thought of their religious tribes. Iraq was mostly composed of Shia (Iranians (formerly Persians)) while the Arab nations were a mixture of both with Sunni majorities. Fast forward USA under President Bush decides Saddam must go, a democracy was established, resulting in the majority of Iranians (our enemy) installing an Iranian government. What followed was the mass murder of most of the Sunni population. ISIS was born out of the ruling class (military) banding together to defend itself. Understand USA counted Iran our enemy and ISIS was fighting against Iran, but we had just stabbed Saddam's elites in the back. Hence ISIS was our enemy also. Later it was thought a good idea to remove Muammar Gaddafi creating a power vacuum in Libya. End result of our meddling will be the establishment of a single Caliphate. The Shia are out gunned 4 to 1 while also a minority within Islam. The history of Islam is not pretty almost as bad as the Roman Catholic Church. However the Church gave up its waring ways while the Muslims live to fight in Jihad. When the Shia are defeated a single well armed with nukes Caliphate will exist. Good luck negotiating with these fellows.
The last time the Muslims were this well armed they killed half the world's population destroyed Constantine's (founder of Roman Catholicism) army and drove their army to the Vatican. However they did not take the Vatican but turned around and marched back. I'm pretty sure this was not a miracle, most times a bit of gold and some promises will stop an army in its tracks.
What is it with the religious that cause them to attack anyone who questions their faith?
I know it's impossible to think differently because of you religious upbringing.
If I was to provide verses from the Torah, Prophets, and Psalms that are incontrovertible evidence all 3 religions claiming Abraham as their father are false it would not in the least change your mind. However I will do so in hope someone else might benefit.
Christianity is founded upon the notion God disappointed in His chosen as bequeathed his blessings upon the Roman church. In doing so a new covenant was established annulling the first now called the Old Covenant. Logically In the light of God stating these promises are eternal and with the covenant aways referred to in the singular this would in fact make God a liar one who cannot be relied upon. Paul's claimed apostleship to the gentiles alone is also quite easy to prove as false. The Christian Jesus (actually the Hebrew Yahowsha) was clear until the heavens and earth pass away not the least stroke of the smallest letter will change from Torah. The definition of Torah is not law, there are no laws, Hebrew does not include a word that can be properly translated to mean Obey. Free will is granted, as such no man is compelled to choose to love God. Love in fact cannot be compelled. Fear of God is in fact a religious contrivance. Hebrew nouns are defined by their verbal roots. The verbal root of Torah is Yarah which in turn means 'to teach' hence Torah of Yahowah is teaching, instructions, and guidance not law. The Greek word used to add Law to the Christians translations is Nomos which in turn does not mean law either but was directed to observing the customs of Greece. Somewhat like when in Greece do as the Greeks do because laws affect the rights of the law abiding and we don't want a bunch of laws passed.
First we'll tackle the idea God changed His mind and created a new covenant:
Judges 2:1 “And then the Messenger of Yahowah ascended from Gilgal to Bokym, and He said ‘I chose to continuously lift you up because you wanted Me to take you away from being besieged in the Black Land, and so I brought you into the Land which relationally and beneficially I promised to your fathers.
And I explained I would never break, split into two, violate, make ineffectual, nor nullify My Covenant in association with you ever, throughout the whole of time
Paul's lie regarding the need of an apostle with a new message to the gentiles;
Exodus 12:49 The same Torah shall apply to both the native (Israel) and the foreigner (gentile) who resides among you.”
Paul's lie that circumcision is no longer required as part of his new message from God;
Exodus 12:48 If a foreigner resides with you and wants to celebrate the Yahowah's Passover, all the males in the household must be circumcised; then he may come near to celebrate it, and he shall be like a native of the land. But no uncircumcised man may eat of it.
Yahowsha (errantly known as Jesus) below stating Torah will not change until the heavens and earth pass away. Paul came 17 years after Passover was fulfilled in 33 CE as far as I can tell the heaven and earth are still in place. Logically nothing has changed nor will anything change until the heavens and earth pass away, correct? Who authorized the pope, The Ram Bam (rabbi) or Muhammad to change anything?
Matthew 5:17 Do not think that I have come to abolish the Law or the Prophets. I have not come to abolish them, but to fulfill them. 18For I tell you truly, until heaven and earth pass away, not a single jot, not a stroke of a pen, will disappear from the Law until everything is accomplished.
God states fear of His person is a religious contrivance: Isaiah 29:12-13
“Then Yahowah said, ‘Forasmuch as these people approach Me with their mouths, and with their lip service, yet they removed their hearts from Me. Their fear toward Me exists because it is taught from man-made traditions learned by rote.”
LOl the church has a colorful history.. colored with the blood of the innocents.
THAT John Connally, was not just shot in the wrist.
According to Wikipedia, "Connally suffered a fracture of the fifth rib, a punctured lung, a shattered wrist, and had a bullet lodged in his leg." The result of the having been injured by the "magic bullet", the one that was found pristine on a stretcher in Parkland Hospital.
Interesting that THAT Connally, was present for two massive turning points for the USA Republic. The military coup in '63, where for all intents and purposes, is where the Republic's u-turn begins and the path to ultimate disintegration of state begins. And then the cutting of the ties between the fiat paper dollar and what tethered it to reality. Gold. Which further accelerated the Republic's slide into oblivion.
One has to wonder if John was able to grasp the irony of his role, in the eventual destruction of the institution he served most of his life, as he lay on his death bed in '93. His family had no such compunction, as they refused to have the "pristine bullet" fragments removed from his leg after his death, which would have proved that the Magic bullet had been nothing more than an illusion.
These men do not run for office out of patriotic fervor but to become wealthy and powerful. When the laws governing the citizen are not equally applied upon to the elected there is no possibility a representative government exists.
One of the wisest decisions any human can make (besides actually listening to God) is to walk away from the systems created by mankind. Walking out of Babylon i.e. religion, politics, patriotism, and militarism allows one to see the world as it is. I haven't voted in 20 years, I no longer need to defend either parties candidates when they do good or bad. Concerning religion not having one does not mean I don't think a God exists. Quite the contrary I know He exists and without the religious clutter can hear Him speaking through the witness provided.
This from a former Roman (orthodox) catholic, converted to Protestantism, Sunday school teacher, Elder, then agnostic. When one ceases to strain the world thought social, political, religious doctrines (lies and contrivances) the big picture is easy to identify and understand.
I'll leave you with a single idea. The universe had a creator no rational person can believe mindless random happenstance can result in complexity to the degree humans have been able to decipher.
Logically creation was for a purpose, when the purpose has been achieved there might be no reason to continue to supporting the universe. Simply put all the answers to these questions have been answered, as men are want to do the truth must be muddled up.
No better business model has ever existed than to step between the creator and his created claiming to be the voice of the creator. Cut out the middleman and you'll have a hope of understanding.
Woodrow Wilson was behind the wheel of the Republic when the U turn was made. WW was the only PhD to serve as president, as a Progressive he knew exactly where he was steering the Republic. Woodrow Wilson was the 28th President, it took exactly 18 presidents later for the Republic to take its last breath before dying.
Wilson was at the vanguard of the so-called "Wisconsin School" of proto-Progressivism in 1890s, early 1900s. He believed that USA had become such a complex place, with all those railways, telegraph lines, large industries and trusts. So per Wisconsin School dogma, governance required "experts" to play roles -- hence the Wilsonian flood of growing federal govt with the early alphabet soup agencies like FTC, ICC and more. All staffed by "the best people!" Heck, Wilson's best peeps took over much of US industrial economy during WWI -- ran the railroads, planned steel output, coordinated farm/food production, built federal facilities like Mussel Shoals, Alabama -- which eventually became FDR's model for Tennessee Valley Authority.
Worth noting that the above-named FDR was "Assistant Secretary of Navy" under Wilson -- essentially ran the Navy Dept for 7.5 yrs. Learned much about how to run a govt in general. If you really want to understand FDR and New Deal (and WWII), you have to understand FDR in Washington during Wilson't presidency.
I am always interested to hear opinions about the gold vs bitcoin debate. Most people agree bitcoin is more available to retailers to own, but adoption has a long way to go before its a true store of value. People in both camps agree that the fiat dollar is garbage as a store of value. I tend to consider gold a store of value but bitcoin could be the ultimate risk on asymmetric bet for major growth because it is basically hardwired to be deflationary as long as usage grows.
I worry about bitcoin and other cryptos. I've owned and sold bitcoin, and I believed (and continue to believe) that its potential for utility is superb. However comma, the feds seemingly have infiltrated the blockchain. I noted they found a way to track and seize stolen bitcoin last year. While theft is nasty, the fed's ability to track the stolen coin is ominous. Perhaps I am incorrect. Hope so.
Crypto is only as secure as the limitations on computing power. When Quantum Computing becomes a thing, many current cryptos will become something like leaving your Rolex watch on the dashboard of your Mercedes, in broad, sunny daylight, while parked in a seedy neighborhood like Rodeo Drive.
From what I read about that Bitcoin seizure, all of what was tracked and seized was held on public Exchanges, where it is easily tracked and seized. Not so for private offline wallets. As they say, 'not your keys, not your coins'.
Okay, we're at the end of the online session. I hope this was helpful. Appreciate everyone's time and interest. Many great questions and comments. You all are a resource of knowledge. Thank you all for being part of the Bonner Private Research group. Best wishes for this Easter weekend. And best of fortunes in your investments, as well as life in general. Stay healthy. Pray for peace. BWK
My view is that the anti-Russia response has highlighted the problems with over-globalization. Way too many points of failure in endless supply chains. Way too much reliance -- at strategic levels!!! -- on faraway resources and factories. Eg, why do almost ALL those critical "computer chips" come from Taiwan? Did we vote on that?
Some people have discussed this offshoring fiasco for years (authors Eamon Fingleton, or Peter Navarro among others). More people were awakened in past two yrs during Covid when they looked around and saw how much of US supply of meds and med products is offshore -- like 98% of antibiotics, etc.
Will US policymakers begin to adapt and make the country friendlier to domestic production? Make the tax system more amenable to domestic capex? Re-rig the regs to accommodate domestic production?
Or does that sound like the dreaded "industrial policy" that Beltway Thinkers hate? Thing is, Fed monetary policy and Congress Tax policy and EPA enviro policy is about as "industrial policy" as you can get.
Putin is a very smart man who actually listens to and implements the recommendations of his financial advisors. When the Anglo American Axis froze Russia’s owned foreign currency reserves plus locked it out of the Swift settlement system, Russia was forced to develop a viable alternative. Amazingly, 75% of the world’s countries still do business with Russia and perhaps they see that a gold-backed Ruble is far more trustworthy than debt-backed dollars.
They also must worry that the West will freeze (steal?) their dollar denominated assets. The idiocy of our leaders’ decisions is rapidly bringing about the demise of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Gee, where can I get some gold backed rubles?
To John Austin who has be blocked from relying to his post.
Some day when free men once again gather to discuss the rise and fall of Western civilizations they will study our time. These men will undoubtedly conclude once again the fall came on upon us shortly after an end was made of free thought and free expression of ideas.
They will point to the very moment when ignorant, arrogant and condescending men appointed themselves as moderators over the public forum.
Critical to making basic steel -- pig iron and steel. It's a key source of "high heat" energy, necessary for both melting the iron and reducing oxygen out of the iron oxide.
Tugging at my emotions, eh? What to do for a 17 yr old? Besides buy him/her a subscription to Bonner Private Research? Okay, eight years is a long time. Companies can do really well, or totally go bust in that timeframe. (Maybe even countries can fall apart, considering where things are now.)
$1,000 will buy half an ounce of gold. Safe downside there. Or 33 ounces of silver. Likely good on the downside as well.
For growth, though?
Energy mutual fund. There are many... Whole slew of name brands that invest in oil & gas, which will definitely still be around. My preference would be that the fund include oil, gas, uranium, energy metals.
Or precious metal miners. Sprott has a couple, egs: Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM); or for more aggressive, go with junior players, Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ). I've worked w Sprott over the yrs (never been paid for it). You get professional management, with in/out liquidity of trading if you need the money or it looks like the roof is about to cave on the economy.
You mean in the mining space? Depends. It's a company-by-company, stock-by-stock thing.
I have many ideas for companies "about to go into production." Plenty of exploration cos that have moved into development, and eventually development gets you towards production. But beware, because ramp-up always takes time. No such thing as a turn-key and go from 0 to 80, 90, 95, 100% Not fast. It's a runup process.
I like to keep my eyes on companies with great management, great assets, history of doing well even in good/bad times.
For example ----> A company that was held back by Covid issues in past two yrs, but now beginning to get back onto the track. Here's one, but again, this is NOT a trackable recco here, although it's a nice, solid company: Avino Silver & Gold (ASM) -- a mining play near Durango, Mexico. Been in the mining biz since 1968. Established. Mining town. Workforce. Gets along w govt. All roads & power, facilities there. But shut down for 18 months per Covid, and now getting back into production. Has a working mine full of zinc & lead, with associated silver and gold. Just drilled into a copper porphyry deposit under the main workings. And has a tailings pile that is also re-mineable for gold at current prices. I like it, but I'm not making formal reccos here. Just using this one to illustrate the point.
Have heard all kinds of opinions and predictions on the fall of the dollar. Seems the dollar has been extraordinarily resilient over these last 50 years. It appears the demise is accelerating but is that just because we have info 24/7 streaming or is it truly related to the insane money printing? Finally why do the countries (even those deemed as enemies) keep buying Treasuries to prop up the dollar. If buying stopped or if Russia shuts off the gas seems like it would be a game changer. Is it a matter of balancing collapse of your own country? All the best!
Why buy Treasuries? Well, if you sell your country's goods for dollars, you now have a bunch of dollars. What will you do with them? Stuff the mattresses? No, for really big gobs of $$$, you have to park them somewhere, esp somewhere supposedly "safe." So back they come to US Treasury. And US Govt uses these dollars to finance the deficit. Downstream, if foreign country needs dollars for something else (buy airplanes from Boeing, equipment from Caterpillar, grain from ADM, etc.) it can draw down against the Treasuries.
But what if the US Govt seizes your dollars? Uh-oh... Just one morning, you get a notice from some obscure office in US Treasury that says: "No soup for you! I have frozen your dollars!"
Well, then you won't make that mistake again. You'll say "If you want my oil, gas, nickel, copper, cobalt, palladium, sapphire substrate crystals, etc., then I want paid in my own currency, rubles!" And foreign buyers must go to GazpromBank to deposit dollars which the bank will convert and then the buyer will receive gas, etc.
Okay, so it felt really good (to some) to drop the dollar hammer on Russian oligarchs, banks, companies, people, etc. Just swoop in and freeze the money, grab the assets, arrest the yachts, encumber the real estate, etc. No due process. No hearing. No proof of bad acts by the owner of the money/goods. Just take it!
But now the entire legal-financial system has been undermined. Yes, that system that holds up the dollar as a key currency in the world.
Can you comment on the investment Tom address in energy sector…XOP. It was originally a buy but it was stated it may not a time to buy due to rising energy costs. Then in another article it was a buy. Can you clear this up for me? Thanks
It's an ETF... SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). Basket of companies in the E&P sector. I'll leave it to Tom to explain the detailed logic.
To add a bit more, though, XOP shows a nice runup over past two yrs (since March 2020 Covid crash). Nice move in past six months, parallel with the move into war in Europe, sanctions, etc. Plus, of course, energy has moved up in response to the Biden Admin utterly lunatic, anti-oil policies that have made most federal lands off limits, incl offshore, Alaska and more.
In general, energy is going to do well ahead. Trade of the Decade, yes? The fossil fuel sector is beaten down by politics and elite sentiment (people who sniff at oil, etc. from their perch in the private jet as they travel across flyover country). Based on raw supply-demand, there's not "enough" oil in the world. Only thing to fix that is a general recession and demand destruction. But the world will still need new supply to replace declining reserves, let alone meet rising demand.
I don't have access to XOP on my UK brokerage account. SPOG is similar, do you know it & if so would it be basically the same as XOP? They have moved together although XOP has outperformed.
Hmm... Getting into the details of particular ideas here. It's not something on which I can comment just now. And we're coming to the end of the online session.
My bankruptcy attorney friends tell me that they have been waiting for many yrs for interest rates to rise, because all those companies that borrowed cheap on terms will have to repay the money, or meet rising interest calls. And we are going to see many, many overextended companies go cash-negative and insolvent.
Along these lines, many banks are going to realize that those loans on the books just went "nonperforming." Whoops.
In this sense, banks are a stock-picking effort just now. Some will do alright in a rising rate environment. Some will be writing down former "assets" -- strange how loaning money to someone who cannot pay it back can still be classified as an asset.
Sure would of been nice to watch the podcast today with Byron but your thread link did not allow for me to access it. I tried every way including logging into my account and nothing
Coal! Ha! Dead as a doornail, eh? Fuel of the past, right? Ha, ha, ha. Damn, I wish I had gone total contrarian and bought Peabody Coal or Arch Minerals. Entire forecasted US output for every major producer for 2022 is forward sold. And well into 2023. Utility cos are bringing back idle coal plants. Exports up. Thermal is doing extremely well. While metallurgical coal is the new gold (sort of).
Indonesia is exporting like gangbusters. Australia too. CO2? Huh? Someone say this was a problem? You would not know it from all the coal burning across the world just now.
Sorry which podcast did you mean? If you look at the top of this page, there should be a link for the Fatal Conceits Podcast. Try that. Today's discussion thread with Byron is text-based only (no audio, no live video).
With a "floor" under gold -- in rubles -- Russia has just eliminated the downside of the gold trade. Paper gold traders cannot sell down too far, lest they get caught in an arbitrage trap. So in this respect, Russia has opened the upside for gold as well.
Worth noting that we are in uncharted waters here. World has not had a real gold standard in many yrs -- 1971 (Nixon closed gold window), or perhaps 1944 (Bretton Woods), or even 1914 (WWI broke out). So what are we to make of this Russian development? Still a process evolving... Watch and learn. But hold your gold 'cuz it's not going to lose your wealth for you.
And to state an obvious point (which more than a few high muckety-mucks in US/West seem not to get), Russia is no pushover country, like Libya in 2010 with its gold dinar (terminated by UK/France/USA in 2011 -- Hillary Clinton: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DXDU48RHLU ). Per that last item, rumor has it that Mr Putin was fascinated by the demise of Khadafi. Reinforced his views of Western perfidy.
Final point... think what you will of Russia's military effort to date in Ukraine (all those wrecked tanks speak for themselves), but at the highest levels of "war is politics by other means," Russia is a predominant nuclear power. Any sane person does not want to go there with Russia, esp not over a gold-backed ruble.
The Russians are playing chess and national sovereignty, while we play checkers and Global Wokeness. Go Woke, Go Broke in far more ways than one. Thanks, Byron.
I suspect that both Russia & China hold far more gold than the "official" numbers. Plenty of room to fudge this in non-monetary ways. Hold it in the gold vaults and just don't report it. Or hold it but categorize it as non-monetary, eg used in electronics or other industrial activity. Even alloy it with copper and call it copper stockpile, although it's relatively simple to deparate the metals.
When was USA gold last audited, held at the NY Fed and Fort Knox? Ron Paul called for this every year when he was in US Congress yet there is no known answer. To how much gold we still hold that is not owned by someone else. Why not? What happened to our right to know the truth.
I’m terms of the trade of the decade with respect to energy and oil producers specifically: what do you see the future being for the large oil companies that are selling off large Russian holdings give the war in Ukraine? Shell comes to mind, letting public sentiment forcing them to sell off large Russian LNG components.
The trade of the decade is still energy. Oil, gas, uranium. Related metals necessary for running the energy/tech economy -- battery metals, rare earths (REs) for magnets, copper.
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As far as Western OilCos exiting Russia, well... Shame to see all that effort (25+ yrs) go down the drain. Selling out to Russian cos, or Chinese, etc.
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Yes, obviously... The war is horrid. It brings out the worst in humanity. At the same time, by Shell, BP, Total, etc. leaving Russia, will it make things better there? Or anywhere else? I have yet to hear an explanation of how/why Western OilCos exiting Russia will change the operational/strategic direction of that country's Ministry of Defense. Will it cost Russia money?
Hint: Russia is still making record amounts of dollars even now, selling its oil at a discount of $30 or so. That is, there are buyers in the world who will belly-up to the bar and pay $75 per barrel for Russia's oil, even though they might hate themselves in the morning for doing so, but hey -- it's a bargain.
As far as the future of large OilCos? Well, I like companies that are doing well to replace reserves as they pump out. I love what Exxon-Mobil has done down off South Am, Guyana. Just one massive oil find after another. And this is XOM with those anti-growth members of its board. Or look at Chevron, still firmly in the oil game, no shame, and share price is at record highs with strong dividend.
Current sociological trend to "hate OilCos" (Biden Admin & US universities come to mind) is the same thing we've seen for 150 yrs., just updated with the Climate Change dogma. Some people in West might not like oil, fossil fuels in general. But the other 7 billion people on this planet would love to have a generator, motorcycle, car, diesel powered tractor, truck, etc.
USA seems to have committed to some sort of a modern "Berlin Airlift" to allies across the seas, except instead of flying coal to West Berlin it's going to be hauling (expensive) LNG to make up for Russian pipeline gas.
In this sense, yes, LNG companies ought to do well. Just remember though... When there are 100 cargoes and 99 ships, everybody makes good money. When there are 100 ships and 99 cargoes, it's a vicious race to the bottom.
Yes, oil service plays have a bright future, certainly in a high price energy environment. They are useful not just for new wells, but for existing wells too. Look at it this way: Western OilCos might not want to drill as much in future for a variety of reasons. Eg, many Western govts -- under current regimes-- hate fossil fuels at the policy level, so make it tough for new Exploration & production. Tough to get licenses and permits, even discourage banks from financing operations. Things like that.... BUT, if you have current wells, perhaps you will spend $$ to clean them out, re-log, re-complete, re-stimulate and boost output.
Usual suspects pertain... Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and I am very pleased to see "CLB" -- Core Labs, an old friend and one of my first energy reccos at Agora back in 2005.
Is there any fundamental reason why governments should wield control over currency or monopolize money? Are we in the midst of a shift to a capitalism of decentralized finance?
Defi is going to destroy the banking industry. I'm just getting into Defi, it has its pitfalls, as I'm sure the early traditional banking industry had and still has. There is no FDIC to bail anyone out. However I can get a 8% return on digital form of USD with no risk other than if the USD goes toes up. If that happens I'll switch to Bitcoin or Ethereum. My next move is into Yield Farming where the APY can be as safely as high as 20-30%. I'm currently in a Yield Farm paying 1.5% a day, auto compounded that's $500 turning into $16k or so in a year. I know this is hard to fathom but I believe the CEO of Wells Fargo makes $75 million a year leaving nothing for the folks holding CD's or savings accounts. No employees, no bank buildings, no anything leaves a lot of room to pay interest to those providing liquidity.
Could this blow up, sure but so could the entire USA monetary system. I believe the current low rate gold has been stuck at is due to Defi. If the world governments figure out a way to destroy crypto Gold will go to $50k an ounce.
I'm sure defi is here to stay, but not necessarily the high rates of return. What should be more important is the lack of privacy in most cryptos including bitcoin. They're all traceable. To replace cash and complete privacy, individuals need privacy coins. Privacy in money is going to prove itself to be even more important to our freedom than hardness (non-inflatability) of money.
Governments use many euphemistic words ("tax", "inflation", "quantitative easing", "civil asset forfeiture", and others) to disguise what they are really doing to their populations. In this case, they attempt to hide the fact that they are committing "theft." The reason governments don't want individuals to have privacy in money (or anything else) is because it would interfere with their program of institutionalized extortion -- not to mention their monopoly on the use of force, if their ill-gotten "funding" was to dry up. Governments are "legalized" crime syndicates that commit countless unlawful and unfathomably heinous acts under Natural Law (in collusion with the banker elites). Who are the real criminals here?
Byron do you see fertiliser, oil and gas prices climbing steadily throughout 2022, or can we expect some violent pullbacks along the way, before prices resume their uptrend?
I doubt we'll see violent pullbacks. Not in oil, gas or fertilizer. Maybe some plateaus and even soft declines/reconsolidations. But hydrocarbon commodities are a very forward-looking segment of economy. And the next 6 - 12 months are baked into the cake already.
That is, oil production is what it is. Not much "new" output from anywhere. Even fracking takes six or more months from bare dirt to a working wellhead. Offshore takes 5, 8, 10 yrs from lease to oil in a Floating Storage Barge.
Nat-gas is in similar straits. We're coming off a cold winter. Underground storage is drawn down and needs to refill. While every LNG facility is maxed out, with every LNG carrier ship booked. No big price relief.
And fertilizer -- nat-gas based -- is already "made" for this growing season. If it's not in a warehouse or rail car now, ready for the spring plant, it's not going to be there.
I suspect that US political & policy bosses really, really, really want a digital currency, and to do away with "cash." Turn dollars into artifacts & museum pieces. Track everything and everyone in some humongous relational database. Of course, modern economy is very accommodating to that. Do you ever get a funny look from the cashier when you try to buy something with cash? Even a $5 purchase at Dunkin Donuts?
The only reason we aren't already constrained to a digital currency is because the wealthy elite haven't engineered a way to extricate themselves from it so that they can have the privacy they need to cover what they do with their money. Biden has already put his toe in the digital currency waters so they are apparently close to accomplishing what they want so that the rest of us can be confined to losing the last vestige of privacy we have left. After that, the amalgamate of government and big business we are left to live with that dictates what we should and should not do, utilizing the ultimate incentive now in digital, traceable, manipulable and inescapable form will likely bring us all to our limit of endurance.
Did none of our elite geniuses see that telling Mr. Putin he was no longer invited to trade in dollars that he might...just might seek another medium in which to trade? And did NOBODY consider that if a new medium could be found that the real bully on the block - the USD - might get kicked to the curb? I suppose not because if any of the puppeteers had a lick of sense they'd have realized that the last domino is their power to print unlimited money. I suppose there really is no accounting for stupid. I'm buyin' gold man.
I think that Mr Putin is way ahead of the herd. He's been accumulating gold for Russia since at least 2014. Here in the West, gold is disdained as a monetary tool. Friend Jim Rickards has written books on the subject. I think more people ought to read up on the matter. Time to dust off those old library books on the Gold Standard, if modern librarians haven't sent them to the landfill. And yes, when people responsible for administering the so-called "global reserve currency" exclude entire nations from using it, it is more than likely that the outsiders will form their own new system. Russia has prepped for this over many years. (Russia-China, along with numerous allies.)
I read the other day that when the people representing the Fed heard about the decisions to kick Russia out of SWIFT and block their bank accounts, they protested strongly (but internally). In any case, the decision had already been made - and announced publicly - by the politicians who are ignorant of anything but posturing, so the Fed's objections were ignored, and the Fed was told to "shut up and soldier." I can't confirm that this is actually true, but it seems to fit the facts. Certainly the majority of the people in the Cabinet do not appear capable of thinking with anything but their political ambitions.
And I realize that your reference to "elite geniuses" was sarcasm, but if there is anyone around Biden who is really intelligent, I fail to see it. I would describe most of them as "A genius in their own mind."
It seems to me that professional monetary managers would not want to wreck the credibility of SWIFT. While politicians tend not to understand complex systems, and break them all the time. It's one of the reasons why we cannot have nice things.
Exactly so. Genius in One's Own Mind
Thanks Joeb, good comment, good insight.
As usual, those geniuses fail to consider the law of unintended consequences. This decision accelerates the inevitable destruction of the dollar and leads to multiple possible outcomes. It could be another country offering a gold or bitcoin backed currency. The USD could simply recede into a smaller part of a basket of reserve currencies. A group of countries could combine to offer support of a new or existing currency. Many alternatives all of which lead to other currencies more powerful than the USD. As we've been reminded repeatedly, fiat currencies always eventually die. Those in charge have always acted to protect their own power and thereby grow their wealth. I expect them to survive the coming crises while the rest are crushed.
The world could trade seashells if everyone agreed that seashells were a useful method of account and storing wealth. In other words, usefulness of a currency is based on collective credibility. And when billions (with a "B") of people see that the US will cancel their dollars in a minute if/when something happens of which US doesn't approve, that credibility begins to fracture. Yes, of course the Ukraine war (aka "special military operation") is a horrible thing. But if you are holding gazillions of $$$, what are you supposed to think? "Just this ONE time, right?" Well, maybe not. Maybe you begin to trade out of dollars and into harder assets -- gold, silver, other real things like metals, land, etc.
I think the 'world' media operates on very outdated 'intelligence' which is only useful in a time/space context and history although historically relevant is not a major factor in present/current decisions. The current worlds financial/political and social conditions/status are in a constant state of flux since humans of all persuasions/nationalities/religions are repugnant to each other and value their own (language currency sports intelligence etc) above that of others .. so after a generation of globalization and rampant greed and depletion of resources the present situation of confrontation between the have's and have less but want more, is also very understandable so why all the fuss .. the real UN-planned event was the public release of blockchain technology and it's subsequent use as a means for the largest criminal syndicates to hide/launder cash into digital bits of nothing that undermines the entire international economic system of planet earth .. yes the post WW2/Bretton Woods world is coming to a close and of course a new world order will arise .. what's so bad about that? well yes the western powers will no longer be able to control the wealth/league of nations which is still just a facade for those in power to pretend to be what they are not so bring it on and the sooner the better it will be fun to see the next phase if the planet's eco systems will even allow it ..?
Greetings, everyone. Byron here. Taking a head start on the 1300 Q&A. First things first... I am NOT giving personal investment advice. (Have to say that, per the lawyers.) I'll do my best to address as many points as possible. If I offer anything that sounds like a financial opinion, let alone mention any companies, it's just that -- one man's viewpoint. It is not a recommendation or a trackable portfolio listing. And also, as a "retired list" senior US Navy officer, I'm also obliged to note that nothing I say regarding the current state of military affairs -- US, allied, Russ-Ukraine or whatever -- is "official." I do NOT speak on behalf of US Navy, US Dept of Defense or US Govt. And with those formalities on the table, I'll now dive down and address items below. Best to all, incl to note that it's Good Friday/Passover tomorrow, and Easter weekend upcoming. Be well, and blessings to everyone. BWK
Byron, My wife was a SWO for 27 years, retired as a Captain. She's a national officer in the Naval Order of the United States. We probably have many things in common, besides your great essays.
Thank you for your kind words, and complements to the Captain. SWO-wise, it's quite a day in naval history, as a major Russian combatant has sunk in the Black Sea -- per accounts, due to hits by cruise missiles. Nothing like that since the Falklands War.
Byron, If you are interested in Naval History, and have time, you might be interested in the Naval Order. Mostly naval officers. As a civilian, I've really learned to love the Navy. thanks to my wife and meeting some of the best people there are. You would make a good speaker at the Tampa Bay Commandery
I'll look into it. Thank you for mentioning. Best, BWK
We can only hope for the best.
How do we become part of the 1pm Q&A ?
Hi dale. You just need to post your comment or question here and Byron will respond if and when he can. There is no live audio or video component to this discussion thread format. It's all text, which means you can come back and read it at your convenience.
thanks much!
What most Westerners don't seem to understand is organizations like NATO and the UN don't stop wars they're the means to make a small dispute morph into a world war. If USA had never entered into WW1, WW2 would never have happened. All the combatant nation were essentially on the verge of bankruptcy. Peace would have prevailed with well a negotiated end to hostilities.
USA entering into WW1 caused a false conclusion no peace was established Germany was economically destroyed. With seemingly no hope of normalcy the first strong man promising to restore real money to the economy was ushered in. The Nazis' replaced the worthless paper with 80% silver coinage. Once his hold on power was established and blessed by the Pope in Rome the silver was replaced with brass. (First Reich was the Roman Empire, second was the (not Weimar it was never an empire) Holy Roman Empire, The Third Reich was German Empire
We in America don't learn from history because we don't see the importance of understanding the Western history. https://historynewsnetwork.org/blog/3572
Without the US petrol dollar controlling the world's currency (established by Nixon with the Saud family) there will be no need for USA to act as the military protectorate of the Saud fiefdom. That should get the bombs flowing from Iran to Saudi Arabia. The first to be launched from Iran will target Mecca not Israel.
I know it might seem hard to believe but Joe Biden and the US citizenry supporting Ukraine has set the wheels to WW3 in motion. All it will take is a misguided drone strike from Ukraine with a drone supplied by USA or a contrived event like the Gulf of Tonkin incident or the sinking of the Lusitiania. China is much the same, they have long memories like the Boxer Rebellion where USA was protecting the Opium trade in China. The West got a huge part of the Chinese population addicted to Opium to spark trade of Chinese goods into the West.
We never learn this time around we are going to be sorry for our blunder into the East.
When WWI (The Great War) broke out, all parties ran out of serious money within about six months. Cash flows dried up. Resources of every kind became scarce -- mine output, mills, factories, energy, farms/food, etc. And it was US "credit" -- OK'ed by one Woodrow Wilson -- which kept the war afloat. Okay, yes... THe parties fought because leadership wanted to fight. But US credit was a massive subsidy to the Western Allies.
Notice any similarity to Ukraine today? Asking for a friend.
Ukraine will be hopelessly in debt to the world banksters after the war is over. If Russian wins the banksters loose this is why I know our intervention into Ukraine is setting the foundation for WW3. The banksters would rather see the world a flame then loose their investment in enslaving Ukraine.
Sorry to step on you religious affiliations but there are numerous pictures of Adolf Hitler receiving the Nazi salute from various cardinals. Mussolini at the behest of Germany granted the papacy the Vatican as a sovereign Nation status. To think this was done at no cost is rather entertaining in comparison to history surrounding the Holy Roman Empire, and its' rising directly and seamlessly from the Roman Empire. I direct you to prophecy of Daniel in relation to the dream of king Nebakanezer's statue. The last empire was rise from the one before (the feet of clay) and trample the whole earth underfoot. I've done extensive travel the Roman eagle and religion are found in all corners of the planet.
I understand why you think me blasphemous, in the past the church would have delighted in applying one of their many godly torture devices to dissuade me from speaking so freely. The article attached is actually a very good explaintion of the events. https://medium.com/exploring-history/hitler-and-the-two-popes-c9968c090d8b
Time will tell as to our intervention in Russian affairs. Knowing a bit of Russian history might change your mind. The Russians are a hearty bunch the end result of the West attempting to isolate the nation will end badly. What restraint would Russia have against using nukes if their attempt to secure their boarders was too fail?
USA has a long history of meddling in the affairs of Russia. For example Russian's relatively peaceful incursion into Afghanistan was met with USA renting the Taliban from Pakistan. We armed and trained the Taliban and directed these to engage in a proxy war against Russia. When the Russian's left the well armed and trained Taliban did what all well armed and trained Muslims have done since 600 CE (when Muhammad made up the religion) they went back to Pakistan and destabilized the government.
Now where did the Iranians get those nuclear reactors? Oh yes we signed a nonproliferation treaty with the Soviet Union we promised to stop enriching uranium for bomb purposes.
No worry USA simply built a reactor in Iran our ally at the time and how did that workout?
Our missiles in Turkey were met with Russian missiles in Cuba. Kennedy looked the hero when only half the story was told.
In fact and as can be learned from our own government the Ukrainian party we backed to overthrow the people's elected government are racists. Their flag the media has done a smack up job of hiding is emblazoned with a swastika. I believe the Pope just spoke on his support of the war and the Ukrainian governments efforts to hold onto power. If you believe they are fighting for freedom and not to hold onto power, I direct you to Washington, DC
I suggest you sharpen up on Western history. Quote from Wikipedia:In the 16th century the Portuguese became aware of the lucrative medicinal and recreational trade of opium into China, and from their factories across Asia chose to supply the Canton System, to satisfy both the medicinal and the recreational use of the drug. By 1729 the Yongzheng Emperor had criminalised the new recreational smoking of opium in his empire. Following the 1764 Battle of Buxar, the British East India Company (EIC) gained control of tax collection, along with the former Mughal Empire opium monopoly in the province of Bengal. The East India Company Act, 1793 formally establlished this monopoly.[14] The EIC was £28 million in debt as a result of the Indian war and the insatiable demand for Chinese tea in the British market, which had to be paid for in silver.[15][16]
To redress the imbalance, the EIC began auctions of opium, which was gathered in taxes, in Calcutta. Profits soared. Since importation of opium into China had been banned by Chinese law, the EIC established an indirect trading scheme partially relying on legal markets and leveraging illicit ones. British merchants would buy tea in Canton (Guangzhou) on credit, and balance their debts by selling opium at auction in Calcutta, then transport it to the Chinese coast aboard British ships, sell it to native merchants who would sell it in China. According to 19th Century sinologist Edward Parker, there were four types of opium smuggled into China from India: kung pan t'ou (公班土, gongban tu or "Patna"); Pak t'ou (白土, bai tu or "Malwa"); Persian, Kem fa t'ou (金花土, jinhua tu) and the "smaller kong pan", which was of a "dearer sort", i.e. more expensive.[17] A description of the cargo aboard Hercules at Lintin in July 1833 distinguished between "new" and "old" Patna, "new" and "old" Benares, and Malwa; the accounting also specifies the number of chests of each type, and the price per chest. The "chests"[B] contained small balls of opium that had originated in the Indian provinces of Bengal and Madras.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_opium_in_China
I believe you replied just before I added a link to confirm the history of Hitler and the two popes Xl and Xll. I'll direct you to that article and links.
The reason USA was attacked on 911 was not a mystery the very same Muslim authored the previous truck bomb in the basement garage a few years prior. Afghanistan had no hand in 911 that was funded by the Saud family, as are most all Muslim terrorist activities. Again USA made a deal with the devil in that the Saud family is a member of the most radical form of Islam.
The reason peace will never exist in the Middle East (until Yahowah returns) is lost on the West. There has been a religious political war raging since Muhammad died. Sunni against Shia from time to time the West has stumbled into the fray including the British who after defeating the Ottoman empire carved up the region into nations with no thought of their religious tribes. Iraq was mostly composed of Shia (Iranians (formerly Persians)) while the Arab nations were a mixture of both with Sunni majorities. Fast forward USA under President Bush decides Saddam must go, a democracy was established, resulting in the majority of Iranians (our enemy) installing an Iranian government. What followed was the mass murder of most of the Sunni population. ISIS was born out of the ruling class (military) banding together to defend itself. Understand USA counted Iran our enemy and ISIS was fighting against Iran, but we had just stabbed Saddam's elites in the back. Hence ISIS was our enemy also. Later it was thought a good idea to remove Muammar Gaddafi creating a power vacuum in Libya. End result of our meddling will be the establishment of a single Caliphate. The Shia are out gunned 4 to 1 while also a minority within Islam. The history of Islam is not pretty almost as bad as the Roman Catholic Church. However the Church gave up its waring ways while the Muslims live to fight in Jihad. When the Shia are defeated a single well armed with nukes Caliphate will exist. Good luck negotiating with these fellows.
The last time the Muslims were this well armed they killed half the world's population destroyed Constantine's (founder of Roman Catholicism) army and drove their army to the Vatican. However they did not take the Vatican but turned around and marched back. I'm pretty sure this was not a miracle, most times a bit of gold and some promises will stop an army in its tracks.
What is it with the religious that cause them to attack anyone who questions their faith?
I know it's impossible to think differently because of you religious upbringing.
If I was to provide verses from the Torah, Prophets, and Psalms that are incontrovertible evidence all 3 religions claiming Abraham as their father are false it would not in the least change your mind. However I will do so in hope someone else might benefit.
Christianity is founded upon the notion God disappointed in His chosen as bequeathed his blessings upon the Roman church. In doing so a new covenant was established annulling the first now called the Old Covenant. Logically In the light of God stating these promises are eternal and with the covenant aways referred to in the singular this would in fact make God a liar one who cannot be relied upon. Paul's claimed apostleship to the gentiles alone is also quite easy to prove as false. The Christian Jesus (actually the Hebrew Yahowsha) was clear until the heavens and earth pass away not the least stroke of the smallest letter will change from Torah. The definition of Torah is not law, there are no laws, Hebrew does not include a word that can be properly translated to mean Obey. Free will is granted, as such no man is compelled to choose to love God. Love in fact cannot be compelled. Fear of God is in fact a religious contrivance. Hebrew nouns are defined by their verbal roots. The verbal root of Torah is Yarah which in turn means 'to teach' hence Torah of Yahowah is teaching, instructions, and guidance not law. The Greek word used to add Law to the Christians translations is Nomos which in turn does not mean law either but was directed to observing the customs of Greece. Somewhat like when in Greece do as the Greeks do because laws affect the rights of the law abiding and we don't want a bunch of laws passed.
First we'll tackle the idea God changed His mind and created a new covenant:
Judges 2:1 “And then the Messenger of Yahowah ascended from Gilgal to Bokym, and He said ‘I chose to continuously lift you up because you wanted Me to take you away from being besieged in the Black Land, and so I brought you into the Land which relationally and beneficially I promised to your fathers.
And I explained I would never break, split into two, violate, make ineffectual, nor nullify My Covenant in association with you ever, throughout the whole of time
Paul's lie regarding the need of an apostle with a new message to the gentiles;
Exodus 12:49 The same Torah shall apply to both the native (Israel) and the foreigner (gentile) who resides among you.”
Paul's lie that circumcision is no longer required as part of his new message from God;
Exodus 12:48 If a foreigner resides with you and wants to celebrate the Yahowah's Passover, all the males in the household must be circumcised; then he may come near to celebrate it, and he shall be like a native of the land. But no uncircumcised man may eat of it.
Yahowsha (errantly known as Jesus) below stating Torah will not change until the heavens and earth pass away. Paul came 17 years after Passover was fulfilled in 33 CE as far as I can tell the heaven and earth are still in place. Logically nothing has changed nor will anything change until the heavens and earth pass away, correct? Who authorized the pope, The Ram Bam (rabbi) or Muhammad to change anything?
Matthew 5:17 Do not think that I have come to abolish the Law or the Prophets. I have not come to abolish them, but to fulfill them. 18For I tell you truly, until heaven and earth pass away, not a single jot, not a stroke of a pen, will disappear from the Law until everything is accomplished.
God states fear of His person is a religious contrivance: Isaiah 29:12-13
“Then Yahowah said, ‘Forasmuch as these people approach Me with their mouths, and with their lip service, yet they removed their hearts from Me. Their fear toward Me exists because it is taught from man-made traditions learned by rote.”
LOl the church has a colorful history.. colored with the blood of the innocents.
THAT John Connally, was not just shot in the wrist.
According to Wikipedia, "Connally suffered a fracture of the fifth rib, a punctured lung, a shattered wrist, and had a bullet lodged in his leg." The result of the having been injured by the "magic bullet", the one that was found pristine on a stretcher in Parkland Hospital.
Interesting that THAT Connally, was present for two massive turning points for the USA Republic. The military coup in '63, where for all intents and purposes, is where the Republic's u-turn begins and the path to ultimate disintegration of state begins. And then the cutting of the ties between the fiat paper dollar and what tethered it to reality. Gold. Which further accelerated the Republic's slide into oblivion.
One has to wonder if John was able to grasp the irony of his role, in the eventual destruction of the institution he served most of his life, as he lay on his death bed in '93. His family had no such compunction, as they refused to have the "pristine bullet" fragments removed from his leg after his death, which would have proved that the Magic bullet had been nothing more than an illusion.
Much like the US dollar has been, since '71.
John Connally... The Forrest Gump who spent so much time as a firsthand witness to America's Deep State.
These men do not run for office out of patriotic fervor but to become wealthy and powerful. When the laws governing the citizen are not equally applied upon to the elected there is no possibility a representative government exists.
One of the wisest decisions any human can make (besides actually listening to God) is to walk away from the systems created by mankind. Walking out of Babylon i.e. religion, politics, patriotism, and militarism allows one to see the world as it is. I haven't voted in 20 years, I no longer need to defend either parties candidates when they do good or bad. Concerning religion not having one does not mean I don't think a God exists. Quite the contrary I know He exists and without the religious clutter can hear Him speaking through the witness provided.
This from a former Roman (orthodox) catholic, converted to Protestantism, Sunday school teacher, Elder, then agnostic. When one ceases to strain the world thought social, political, religious doctrines (lies and contrivances) the big picture is easy to identify and understand.
I'll leave you with a single idea. The universe had a creator no rational person can believe mindless random happenstance can result in complexity to the degree humans have been able to decipher.
Logically creation was for a purpose, when the purpose has been achieved there might be no reason to continue to supporting the universe. Simply put all the answers to these questions have been answered, as men are want to do the truth must be muddled up.
No better business model has ever existed than to step between the creator and his created claiming to be the voice of the creator. Cut out the middleman and you'll have a hope of understanding.
Woodrow Wilson was behind the wheel of the Republic when the U turn was made. WW was the only PhD to serve as president, as a Progressive he knew exactly where he was steering the Republic. Woodrow Wilson was the 28th President, it took exactly 18 presidents later for the Republic to take its last breath before dying.
Wilson was at the vanguard of the so-called "Wisconsin School" of proto-Progressivism in 1890s, early 1900s. He believed that USA had become such a complex place, with all those railways, telegraph lines, large industries and trusts. So per Wisconsin School dogma, governance required "experts" to play roles -- hence the Wilsonian flood of growing federal govt with the early alphabet soup agencies like FTC, ICC and more. All staffed by "the best people!" Heck, Wilson's best peeps took over much of US industrial economy during WWI -- ran the railroads, planned steel output, coordinated farm/food production, built federal facilities like Mussel Shoals, Alabama -- which eventually became FDR's model for Tennessee Valley Authority.
Worth noting that the above-named FDR was "Assistant Secretary of Navy" under Wilson -- essentially ran the Navy Dept for 7.5 yrs. Learned much about how to run a govt in general. If you really want to understand FDR and New Deal (and WWII), you have to understand FDR in Washington during Wilson't presidency.
We could discuss this all day. But not just now.
I am always interested to hear opinions about the gold vs bitcoin debate. Most people agree bitcoin is more available to retailers to own, but adoption has a long way to go before its a true store of value. People in both camps agree that the fiat dollar is garbage as a store of value. I tend to consider gold a store of value but bitcoin could be the ultimate risk on asymmetric bet for major growth because it is basically hardwired to be deflationary as long as usage grows.
I worry about bitcoin and other cryptos. I've owned and sold bitcoin, and I believed (and continue to believe) that its potential for utility is superb. However comma, the feds seemingly have infiltrated the blockchain. I noted they found a way to track and seize stolen bitcoin last year. While theft is nasty, the fed's ability to track the stolen coin is ominous. Perhaps I am incorrect. Hope so.
Crypto is only as secure as the limitations on computing power. When Quantum Computing becomes a thing, many current cryptos will become something like leaving your Rolex watch on the dashboard of your Mercedes, in broad, sunny daylight, while parked in a seedy neighborhood like Rodeo Drive.
From what I read about that Bitcoin seizure, all of what was tracked and seized was held on public Exchanges, where it is easily tracked and seized. Not so for private offline wallets. As they say, 'not your keys, not your coins'.
Yes, if your crypto are in public instruments, then govt can seize them. Look at what PM Trudeau did to Truckers in Ottawa in Jan/Feb for example.
Okay, we're at the end of the online session. I hope this was helpful. Appreciate everyone's time and interest. Many great questions and comments. You all are a resource of knowledge. Thank you all for being part of the Bonner Private Research group. Best wishes for this Easter weekend. And best of fortunes in your investments, as well as life in general. Stay healthy. Pray for peace. BWK
The most frightening thing about Russia's encroachment is how the response has disrupted Globalization, The T
My view is that the anti-Russia response has highlighted the problems with over-globalization. Way too many points of failure in endless supply chains. Way too much reliance -- at strategic levels!!! -- on faraway resources and factories. Eg, why do almost ALL those critical "computer chips" come from Taiwan? Did we vote on that?
Some people have discussed this offshoring fiasco for years (authors Eamon Fingleton, or Peter Navarro among others). More people were awakened in past two yrs during Covid when they looked around and saw how much of US supply of meds and med products is offshore -- like 98% of antibiotics, etc.
Will US policymakers begin to adapt and make the country friendlier to domestic production? Make the tax system more amenable to domestic capex? Re-rig the regs to accommodate domestic production?
Or does that sound like the dreaded "industrial policy" that Beltway Thinkers hate? Thing is, Fed monetary policy and Congress Tax policy and EPA enviro policy is about as "industrial policy" as you can get.
Putin is a very smart man who actually listens to and implements the recommendations of his financial advisors. When the Anglo American Axis froze Russia’s owned foreign currency reserves plus locked it out of the Swift settlement system, Russia was forced to develop a viable alternative. Amazingly, 75% of the world’s countries still do business with Russia and perhaps they see that a gold-backed Ruble is far more trustworthy than debt-backed dollars.
They also must worry that the West will freeze (steal?) their dollar denominated assets. The idiocy of our leaders’ decisions is rapidly bringing about the demise of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Gee, where can I get some gold backed rubles?
To John Austin who has be blocked from relying to his post.
Some day when free men once again gather to discuss the rise and fall of Western civilizations they will study our time. These men will undoubtedly conclude once again the fall came on upon us shortly after an end was made of free thought and free expression of ideas.
They will point to the very moment when ignorant, arrogant and condescending men appointed themselves as moderators over the public forum.
Where is link?
What is so special about metallurgical coal? Jack N
Critical to making basic steel -- pig iron and steel. It's a key source of "high heat" energy, necessary for both melting the iron and reducing oxygen out of the iron oxide.
If you were 17 years old today and had $1000 to invest and won't access it until 25 yrs. old, what would you choose for an investment?
Tugging at my emotions, eh? What to do for a 17 yr old? Besides buy him/her a subscription to Bonner Private Research? Okay, eight years is a long time. Companies can do really well, or totally go bust in that timeframe. (Maybe even countries can fall apart, considering where things are now.)
$1,000 will buy half an ounce of gold. Safe downside there. Or 33 ounces of silver. Likely good on the downside as well.
For growth, though?
Energy mutual fund. There are many... Whole slew of name brands that invest in oil & gas, which will definitely still be around. My preference would be that the fund include oil, gas, uranium, energy metals.
Or precious metal miners. Sprott has a couple, egs: Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM); or for more aggressive, go with junior players, Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ). I've worked w Sprott over the yrs (never been paid for it). You get professional management, with in/out liquidity of trading if you need the money or it looks like the roof is about to cave on the economy.
Yup. As long as you can stomach holding govt bonds, these "indexed" instruments are the best of a bad lot.
I own Lion One
thanks
Juniors about to go production. Are they reasonable risk reward plays?
You mean in the mining space? Depends. It's a company-by-company, stock-by-stock thing.
I have many ideas for companies "about to go into production." Plenty of exploration cos that have moved into development, and eventually development gets you towards production. But beware, because ramp-up always takes time. No such thing as a turn-key and go from 0 to 80, 90, 95, 100% Not fast. It's a runup process.
I like to keep my eyes on companies with great management, great assets, history of doing well even in good/bad times.
For example ----> A company that was held back by Covid issues in past two yrs, but now beginning to get back onto the track. Here's one, but again, this is NOT a trackable recco here, although it's a nice, solid company: Avino Silver & Gold (ASM) -- a mining play near Durango, Mexico. Been in the mining biz since 1968. Established. Mining town. Workforce. Gets along w govt. All roads & power, facilities there. But shut down for 18 months per Covid, and now getting back into production. Has a working mine full of zinc & lead, with associated silver and gold. Just drilled into a copper porphyry deposit under the main workings. And has a tailings pile that is also re-mineable for gold at current prices. I like it, but I'm not making formal reccos here. Just using this one to illustrate the point.
thank you
Hey Byron, thanks for chatting with us.
Have heard all kinds of opinions and predictions on the fall of the dollar. Seems the dollar has been extraordinarily resilient over these last 50 years. It appears the demise is accelerating but is that just because we have info 24/7 streaming or is it truly related to the insane money printing? Finally why do the countries (even those deemed as enemies) keep buying Treasuries to prop up the dollar. If buying stopped or if Russia shuts off the gas seems like it would be a game changer. Is it a matter of balancing collapse of your own country? All the best!
Why buy Treasuries? Well, if you sell your country's goods for dollars, you now have a bunch of dollars. What will you do with them? Stuff the mattresses? No, for really big gobs of $$$, you have to park them somewhere, esp somewhere supposedly "safe." So back they come to US Treasury. And US Govt uses these dollars to finance the deficit. Downstream, if foreign country needs dollars for something else (buy airplanes from Boeing, equipment from Caterpillar, grain from ADM, etc.) it can draw down against the Treasuries.
But what if the US Govt seizes your dollars? Uh-oh... Just one morning, you get a notice from some obscure office in US Treasury that says: "No soup for you! I have frozen your dollars!"
Well, then you won't make that mistake again. You'll say "If you want my oil, gas, nickel, copper, cobalt, palladium, sapphire substrate crystals, etc., then I want paid in my own currency, rubles!" And foreign buyers must go to GazpromBank to deposit dollars which the bank will convert and then the buyer will receive gas, etc.
Okay, so it felt really good (to some) to drop the dollar hammer on Russian oligarchs, banks, companies, people, etc. Just swoop in and freeze the money, grab the assets, arrest the yachts, encumber the real estate, etc. No due process. No hearing. No proof of bad acts by the owner of the money/goods. Just take it!
But now the entire legal-financial system has been undermined. Yes, that system that holds up the dollar as a key currency in the world.
Can you comment on the investment Tom address in energy sector…XOP. It was originally a buy but it was stated it may not a time to buy due to rising energy costs. Then in another article it was a buy. Can you clear this up for me? Thanks
It's an ETF... SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). Basket of companies in the E&P sector. I'll leave it to Tom to explain the detailed logic.
To add a bit more, though, XOP shows a nice runup over past two yrs (since March 2020 Covid crash). Nice move in past six months, parallel with the move into war in Europe, sanctions, etc. Plus, of course, energy has moved up in response to the Biden Admin utterly lunatic, anti-oil policies that have made most federal lands off limits, incl offshore, Alaska and more.
In general, energy is going to do well ahead. Trade of the Decade, yes? The fossil fuel sector is beaten down by politics and elite sentiment (people who sniff at oil, etc. from their perch in the private jet as they travel across flyover country). Based on raw supply-demand, there's not "enough" oil in the world. Only thing to fix that is a general recession and demand destruction. But the world will still need new supply to replace declining reserves, let alone meet rising demand.
I don't have access to XOP on my UK brokerage account. SPOG is similar, do you know it & if so would it be basically the same as XOP? They have moved together although XOP has outperformed.
Hmm... Getting into the details of particular ideas here. It's not something on which I can comment just now. And we're coming to the end of the online session.
Ok, no worries.
With Interest rates soaring, shouldn’t banks be a good investment. Yet…they all seem asleep?
My bankruptcy attorney friends tell me that they have been waiting for many yrs for interest rates to rise, because all those companies that borrowed cheap on terms will have to repay the money, or meet rising interest calls. And we are going to see many, many overextended companies go cash-negative and insolvent.
Along these lines, many banks are going to realize that those loans on the books just went "nonperforming." Whoops.
In this sense, banks are a stock-picking effort just now. Some will do alright in a rising rate environment. Some will be writing down former "assets" -- strange how loaning money to someone who cannot pay it back can still be classified as an asset.
Great insight. Thanks
Sure would of been nice to watch the podcast today with Byron but your thread link did not allow for me to access it. I tried every way including logging into my account and nothing
WOW
I'm just answering questions online here. Typing. Forgive my typos and any bad grammar.
How do we access the discussion as a paid subscriber?
You are here. This is it.
confusing. where does this start?
What is the role of coal?
Coal! Ha! Dead as a doornail, eh? Fuel of the past, right? Ha, ha, ha. Damn, I wish I had gone total contrarian and bought Peabody Coal or Arch Minerals. Entire forecasted US output for every major producer for 2022 is forward sold. And well into 2023. Utility cos are bringing back idle coal plants. Exports up. Thermal is doing extremely well. While metallurgical coal is the new gold (sort of).
Indonesia is exporting like gangbusters. Australia too. CO2? Huh? Someone say this was a problem? You would not know it from all the coal burning across the world just now.
ask Byron
How do I get to podcast?
Sorry which podcast did you mean? If you look at the top of this page, there should be a link for the Fatal Conceits Podcast. Try that. Today's discussion thread with Byron is text-based only (no audio, no live video).
Ok, thank you
good question
Byron - What are your thoughts on Russia putting a floor price on Gold at effectively $1600/oz.?
With a "floor" under gold -- in rubles -- Russia has just eliminated the downside of the gold trade. Paper gold traders cannot sell down too far, lest they get caught in an arbitrage trap. So in this respect, Russia has opened the upside for gold as well.
Worth noting that we are in uncharted waters here. World has not had a real gold standard in many yrs -- 1971 (Nixon closed gold window), or perhaps 1944 (Bretton Woods), or even 1914 (WWI broke out). So what are we to make of this Russian development? Still a process evolving... Watch and learn. But hold your gold 'cuz it's not going to lose your wealth for you.
And to state an obvious point (which more than a few high muckety-mucks in US/West seem not to get), Russia is no pushover country, like Libya in 2010 with its gold dinar (terminated by UK/France/USA in 2011 -- Hillary Clinton: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DXDU48RHLU ). Per that last item, rumor has it that Mr Putin was fascinated by the demise of Khadafi. Reinforced his views of Western perfidy.
Final point... think what you will of Russia's military effort to date in Ukraine (all those wrecked tanks speak for themselves), but at the highest levels of "war is politics by other means," Russia is a predominant nuclear power. Any sane person does not want to go there with Russia, esp not over a gold-backed ruble.
The Russians are playing chess and national sovereignty, while we play checkers and Global Wokeness. Go Woke, Go Broke in far more ways than one. Thanks, Byron.
What is the role and future of coal?
See elsewhere in this thread.
I suspect that both Russia & China hold far more gold than the "official" numbers. Plenty of room to fudge this in non-monetary ways. Hold it in the gold vaults and just don't report it. Or hold it but categorize it as non-monetary, eg used in electronics or other industrial activity. Even alloy it with copper and call it copper stockpile, although it's relatively simple to deparate the metals.
When was USA gold last audited, held at the NY Fed and Fort Knox? Ron Paul called for this every year when he was in US Congress yet there is no known answer. To how much gold we still hold that is not owned by someone else. Why not? What happened to our right to know the truth.
I’m terms of the trade of the decade with respect to energy and oil producers specifically: what do you see the future being for the large oil companies that are selling off large Russian holdings give the war in Ukraine? Shell comes to mind, letting public sentiment forcing them to sell off large Russian LNG components.
The trade of the decade is still energy. Oil, gas, uranium. Related metals necessary for running the energy/tech economy -- battery metals, rare earths (REs) for magnets, copper.
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As far as Western OilCos exiting Russia, well... Shame to see all that effort (25+ yrs) go down the drain. Selling out to Russian cos, or Chinese, etc.
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Yes, obviously... The war is horrid. It brings out the worst in humanity. At the same time, by Shell, BP, Total, etc. leaving Russia, will it make things better there? Or anywhere else? I have yet to hear an explanation of how/why Western OilCos exiting Russia will change the operational/strategic direction of that country's Ministry of Defense. Will it cost Russia money?
Hint: Russia is still making record amounts of dollars even now, selling its oil at a discount of $30 or so. That is, there are buyers in the world who will belly-up to the bar and pay $75 per barrel for Russia's oil, even though they might hate themselves in the morning for doing so, but hey -- it's a bargain.
As far as the future of large OilCos? Well, I like companies that are doing well to replace reserves as they pump out. I love what Exxon-Mobil has done down off South Am, Guyana. Just one massive oil find after another. And this is XOM with those anti-growth members of its board. Or look at Chevron, still firmly in the oil game, no shame, and share price is at record highs with strong dividend.
Current sociological trend to "hate OilCos" (Biden Admin & US universities come to mind) is the same thing we've seen for 150 yrs., just updated with the Climate Change dogma. Some people in West might not like oil, fossil fuels in general. But the other 7 billion people on this planet would love to have a generator, motorcycle, car, diesel powered tractor, truck, etc.
Do you think LNG tanker companies will be a good long term play from here??
USA seems to have committed to some sort of a modern "Berlin Airlift" to allies across the seas, except instead of flying coal to West Berlin it's going to be hauling (expensive) LNG to make up for Russian pipeline gas.
In this sense, yes, LNG companies ought to do well. Just remember though... When there are 100 cargoes and 99 ships, everybody makes good money. When there are 100 ships and 99 cargoes, it's a vicious race to the bottom.
Do you think oil services companies are a good way to play the trade of the decade (e.g. SLB, CLB)?
Yes, oil service plays have a bright future, certainly in a high price energy environment. They are useful not just for new wells, but for existing wells too. Look at it this way: Western OilCos might not want to drill as much in future for a variety of reasons. Eg, many Western govts -- under current regimes-- hate fossil fuels at the policy level, so make it tough for new Exploration & production. Tough to get licenses and permits, even discourage banks from financing operations. Things like that.... BUT, if you have current wells, perhaps you will spend $$ to clean them out, re-log, re-complete, re-stimulate and boost output.
Usual suspects pertain... Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and I am very pleased to see "CLB" -- Core Labs, an old friend and one of my first energy reccos at Agora back in 2005.
Is there any fundamental reason why governments should wield control over currency or monopolize money? Are we in the midst of a shift to a capitalism of decentralized finance?
Defi is going to destroy the banking industry. I'm just getting into Defi, it has its pitfalls, as I'm sure the early traditional banking industry had and still has. There is no FDIC to bail anyone out. However I can get a 8% return on digital form of USD with no risk other than if the USD goes toes up. If that happens I'll switch to Bitcoin or Ethereum. My next move is into Yield Farming where the APY can be as safely as high as 20-30%. I'm currently in a Yield Farm paying 1.5% a day, auto compounded that's $500 turning into $16k or so in a year. I know this is hard to fathom but I believe the CEO of Wells Fargo makes $75 million a year leaving nothing for the folks holding CD's or savings accounts. No employees, no bank buildings, no anything leaves a lot of room to pay interest to those providing liquidity.
Could this blow up, sure but so could the entire USA monetary system. I believe the current low rate gold has been stuck at is due to Defi. If the world governments figure out a way to destroy crypto Gold will go to $50k an ounce.
I'm sure defi is here to stay, but not necessarily the high rates of return. What should be more important is the lack of privacy in most cryptos including bitcoin. They're all traceable. To replace cash and complete privacy, individuals need privacy coins. Privacy in money is going to prove itself to be even more important to our freedom than hardness (non-inflatability) of money.
Governments use many euphemistic words ("tax", "inflation", "quantitative easing", "civil asset forfeiture", and others) to disguise what they are really doing to their populations. In this case, they attempt to hide the fact that they are committing "theft." The reason governments don't want individuals to have privacy in money (or anything else) is because it would interfere with their program of institutionalized extortion -- not to mention their monopoly on the use of force, if their ill-gotten "funding" was to dry up. Governments are "legalized" crime syndicates that commit countless unlawful and unfathomably heinous acts under Natural Law (in collusion with the banker elites). Who are the real criminals here?
Interesting hypothesis. Thanks
Byron do you see fertiliser, oil and gas prices climbing steadily throughout 2022, or can we expect some violent pullbacks along the way, before prices resume their uptrend?
I doubt we'll see violent pullbacks. Not in oil, gas or fertilizer. Maybe some plateaus and even soft declines/reconsolidations. But hydrocarbon commodities are a very forward-looking segment of economy. And the next 6 - 12 months are baked into the cake already.
That is, oil production is what it is. Not much "new" output from anywhere. Even fracking takes six or more months from bare dirt to a working wellhead. Offshore takes 5, 8, 10 yrs from lease to oil in a Floating Storage Barge.
Nat-gas is in similar straits. We're coming off a cold winter. Underground storage is drawn down and needs to refill. While every LNG facility is maxed out, with every LNG carrier ship booked. No big price relief.
And fertilizer -- nat-gas based -- is already "made" for this growing season. If it's not in a warehouse or rail car now, ready for the spring plant, it's not going to be there.
Is a U.S. digital currency the end game of all this smoke and mirror trillion dollar debt, spend till the cows come home QE spending?
I suspect that US political & policy bosses really, really, really want a digital currency, and to do away with "cash." Turn dollars into artifacts & museum pieces. Track everything and everyone in some humongous relational database. Of course, modern economy is very accommodating to that. Do you ever get a funny look from the cashier when you try to buy something with cash? Even a $5 purchase at Dunkin Donuts?
The only reason we aren't already constrained to a digital currency is because the wealthy elite haven't engineered a way to extricate themselves from it so that they can have the privacy they need to cover what they do with their money. Biden has already put his toe in the digital currency waters so they are apparently close to accomplishing what they want so that the rest of us can be confined to losing the last vestige of privacy we have left. After that, the amalgamate of government and big business we are left to live with that dictates what we should and should not do, utilizing the ultimate incentive now in digital, traceable, manipulable and inescapable form will likely bring us all to our limit of endurance.