54 Comments

I have only just rediscovered Bill Bonner hiding away in these pages and now.....you Joel. My discovery of Bill was back in 2019 when he was an attachment to some trivial NZ financial newsletter that unexplicably turned up in my inbox. My finger hovering over the delete button while clearing my inbox of the usual crap I paused for the briefest moment....my finger lifting slowly away from the delete button while I discovered Bill Bonner. His writing so filled with knowledge, humour and an understanding of everything that I knew nothing of, got me hooked. That briefest of moments finger hovering changed my life. It sent me on a rampage of learning which will never end. Thank you Bill Bonner.

Back in 2019 the finger hovering moment I was lying in my bed overlooking lake Taupo killing time until I had to get up to start my day logging. As I write this I am again lying in bed waiting for the sun to rise and and my work day to start. Only now my work day consists of researching global geopolitics and finances. I know I will be shorting the S&P500 and the Nasdaq for the first few days of this week. I am long hydrocarbons and carbohydrates and I have some wicked gold and silver miners on my watchlist...finger hovering lol. Cheers Guys from IANINNZ

PS: thoroughly enjoyed your writing this morning Joel....31000 yrs eh, mind boggling.

Expand full comment

Well written Joel! Felt the beginnings of a novel. Enjoy your long weekend with the family. Cheers

Expand full comment

‘Why, sometimes I’ve believed in as many as six impossible things before breakfast’. The Queen, Alice in Wonderland

Expand full comment

A few years back there was a hurricane that struck Huston, Texas. There were boats going up and down the streets. There was an estimate that the amount of water was 26 trillion gallons.

Expand full comment

They will print and the debt will be diluted and the people impoverished. It is the Latin American playbook. Buy gold and other real assets.

Expand full comment

Beyond voting in November - which I fully understand and support....I believe the tipping point is already past. I believe Ray Dalio is right, as is the book - 4th Turning (from 1997). My question is simple - therefore what? What should the individual and family do to protect themselves physically, spiritually, and financially? Thoughts?

Expand full comment

Excellent! Thank you for putting in perspective.

similar to what you wrote, I usually put it in context this way, to simplify the idea: about 330 million people (including children, illegals, etc....), means $3 per person for every billion dollars.

$30 for ten billion

$300 for 100 billion

$3,000 for 1 trillion.

Again, this is for each person, not for every taxpayer. So a family of two adults and 2 kids = $12,000 / 1 trillion dollars.

Expand full comment

I recall Bill once described a trillion.

"$17 trillion represents spending a million dollars a day, every single day, for more than 20,000 years, before completely exhausting it."

I nearly fell out of my chair when I read that and set out to quickly do the math. Impossible I thought !

If I recall Alpha Centauri is roughly 4 Light years from earth. Light travels at close to 6 trillion miles a year, you could more likely get to Alpha Centauri before the debt will ever be repaid.

Expand full comment

$31 trillion in debt and Trump gave $1.8 trillion in tax breaks to the wealthy and corporations.

Sounds pretty stupid to me.

Luckily Biden has put the 15% minimum tax on corporations .

No more 0 in federal taxes for the largest corporations.

Expand full comment

Two bits, four bits, six bits a dollar

they somehow can't hear you,

how do we yell a little louder??

Expand full comment

I have found that thinking with the BIG numbers is simple.

Just find an appropriate relationship. X per Y.

EXAMPLE 1:

735 covid deaths -per- 1,000,000 Canadian population.

Remove enough zeros to reduce one side to a single digit, like 7 covid deaths.

Remove the same number of zeros from the other side, so 10,000 Canadians.

7 -per- 10,000.

I can think with that. We have 40,000 population in our Canadian town, so there should be somewhere around 28 covid deaths. Nobody here has heard about more than 2. Hmmm.

EXAMPLE 2:

$31,000,000,000,000 govt debt owed by about 400,000,000 Americans. Right?

Take 8 zeroes off each side: $310,000 govt debt -per- every man, woman and child in the USA. (I guess our grandchildren are going to have to shoulder up, too. We are eating our young.)

That's how it looks from the rock this frog is sitting on.

Expand full comment

The truly astonishing fact of the US debt debacle is that the President as well as his predecessors and the current Congress and its predecessors have squandered trillions of dollars in the name of wars against every enemy foreign and domestic and has also enriched the closest of friends and supporters of each administration and class of congress. All the while expecting the hard working citizens of this once great nation too foot the bill and think that we’d be none the wiser, I hate to let the cat out of the bag for everyone who is without the intellectual fortitude to figure this out , but neither this tax payer or any other in the long list of duped citizens will ever be able to pay any of this fake money back either to themselves or anyone else who lays claim to the bonds of monies owed by the Good US of A .

So when our dollar goes the way of digital or some other cockamamie token of payment it will still be as worthless as the paper you wipe your behind with maybe that’s all its worth is in real value at least you get a clean bum in the end which won’t be what the world will end up with in not too distant future.

Expand full comment

Brilliant!

Expand full comment

Well look at that Jo-El…same family configuration, semi-tropical rainforest local…only different Pesos: COP.

Same dinner here: 40,000 drop the 000, divide by 4 and 10 euros is the going rate in the capital of our southerly Departamento. XE tells me that 10 years back it would have been a 20 euros ‘setback’.

Language teachers always try to simplify math for some reason. Been doing this kind of head math for more than twenty years. But I started early as a young kid trying to expand my imported Maerklin railroad empire on CAD 1 a week.

As a teacher I appreciate your understanding and addressing limitations of the human mind. Colombians tend to speak of packages when buying larger items that require COP 1,000,000 or more denoting them with an apostrophe: 50’ for a new locally grown Renault Duster. Authorities have been busy expanding their offerings of bank notes with 50,000 and 100,000 bills. Perhaps realizing that this is not enough (12.50 and 25 euros for each note respectively) the denominations are alphanumerical: 50 mil Pesos and 100 mil Pesos. Clearly, at some point the word mil will be dropped and only 2 decades later part of my COPing system will have been adopted. Only division by 4 required…for now.

In conclusion, Jo-El, it seems to me that you are still spending too much, relatively speaking. If you’re coming up north Wife and I would love to have you three over to compare both types of ‘stakes’.

Take care,

Alex and fam

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Tell me which wall has ever work ? Here in Europe they risk their lives to find a better life , for the majority of them , crossing the Mediterranean with air boats , trees trunks. Of course we can not host every one , but what a desperation for them to risk their lives to have hit of your American dream.

I ask my self what Jesus would do ... I , already know that he wouldn’t build a wall , shoot anything that moves. Don’t forget where you come from , surely your family immigrate to a land that belong to an other civilization , long time ago that your forget that you too cross an ocean to have a better life . You were given a chance , good for you ... may one day your open your house to one of them . Have a nice Sunday PG V .

Expand full comment

I would respectfully submit nobody opened their doors to the averages Caucasian American. They took their land by force mostly then sold it (and resold it) amongst themselves

Expand full comment

The republicans believe ' I got mine so screw everyone else. '.......

My ancestors on my mothers side were the Blackfoot Indians of N Dakota.

They should have built a Wall.

Expand full comment

My ancestors on my father's side were the Cherokee indians of Oklahoma. They didn't fair too well either.

Expand full comment
Oct 10, 2022·edited Oct 10, 2022

A wall works very well in Israel and it was working really well here before Biden issued an edict to stop catching and deporting from the areas that are still open.

Here's the problem, it is simply impossible to have open boarders AND a welfare state. It is patently unfair to the American taxpayer and citizen to burden them with the costs incurred by allowing the entire world to walk in. It's insanity and it needs to be stopped by any means necessary.

When my relatives and the rest of the millions that came across the Atlantic to immigrate to this country there was no welfare state. They had to assimilate, they had to work and they couldn't walk into an emergency room and have all their needs taken care of at no charge. So to all those that want to tell us how we should be tolerant and welcome these people with open arms I say nonsense. The times and this country when my ancestors came was an apple and the United States of America today is a piece, but it's not a piece of fruit.

Expand full comment

Immigrants want to work and they do work. They don't want welfare. They get all the lowest paying jobs and can't fully support themselves for a while. They are especially good at starting small businesses.

Expand full comment
Oct 10, 2022·edited Oct 10, 2022

"Immigrants want to work and they do work."

So what? Many studies have been done on the net financial impact that illegal immigrants have on the government. In every one of them, the average net cost (weighing the taxes they pay versus the expense incurred by Federal, State and local governments) is just North of $9,000.00 per illegal immigrant!

Thus, it's a net loser for a country and its real citizens. The vast majority of illegal immigrants work menial, low paying jobs which means they pay no federal income taxes and little to no state income taxes regardless of the state. Yes, they pay payroll taxes, but not much in comparison to the benefits they reap like the cost of educating their children, health care and yes, many more than you think find a way to access public assistance (in addition to working "under the table jobs" where they pay absolutely no taxes of any kind). That's how they qualify, they don't show any income.

I know this because I have actually met illegals that collect welfare in California and it disgusts me. And, when they tried to do the right thing and get off "general assistance" (welfare) their case worker told them there was no reason to stop receiving it. This is why less government is good, the least government is best.

If someone that has skills, is highly educated or wants to start a business wants to come here then that's what legal immigration is for and they can get in line and navigate that process. Then it's controlled and orderly. Not like the invasion that's happening on our Southern border right now.

You might think you're being virtuous and kind, but in fact your way of thinking and Biden's way of acting are harming countless American citizens. Many are kids that have to sit in a classroom where the teacher has to repeat everything five times because there are two or three kids in the class that don't speak a word of English.

You think that's great right? That our society should have to devolve to the lowest common denominator. That "taxing the rich more" will actually make a difference. All it will do is put more money in the pockets of politicians (on both sides) and the pockets of their friends and cronies. (Kind of like the Bidens with the Chinese, the Ukranians, etc.)

Expand full comment

It's too bad that your heart is so small that you begrudge someone from Central America going from abject poverty up to just poverty. And children who don't speak English first go to ESL classes (Learning English as a Second Language) long before going to a regular classroom. And raising taxes will help the debt. Do you remember the last time there was no deficit? During Bill Clinton's years in office. A Democrat balanced the budget!

Expand full comment
Oct 11, 2022·edited Oct 11, 2022

Actually my heart is larger than all you Marxists put together. I just care about the little black kids in the metropolitan areas of these United States more than you and want the best for them instead of people that come here for the things their leaders don't provide them with in their countries. I want the parents of little black kids to have the opportunities to fulfill their dreams here instead of aborting their children at rates higher than any other ethnic group.

As a matter of fact, children that don't speak English don't necessarily go to ESL classes "long before going to a regular classroom". That might happen in some utopian fantasy that you Marxists talk about, but in reality it doesn't happen. I know, I sent my twin sons to a public school for kindergarten in California and they encountered the exact scenario I described (this was 25 years ago, it's far worse now, and it was the impetus for sending my sons to private school from the first grade on). Every dollar spent on some illegal alien kid could be spent on a naturalized citizen child. Your "compassion" is really theft.

Raising taxes will not help the debt. In fact, cutting taxes has proven in practice to increase tax revenue to the Treasury (see Ronald Reagan and tax cuts and take a look at the tax revenue collected after Trump cut taxes).

You know who didn't balance the budget? Answer: Bill Clinton. It was Newt Gingrich's Republican Congress that almost balanced the budget during Clinton's tenure (I say almost because the national debt still grew during the Clinton Administration). Clinton went along kicking and screaming because it's impossible for a president to balance a budget in our system. Congress holds the purse strings by design. You need to take a class in basic civics.

You also need to expand your horizons and stop watching MSNBC and CNN exclusively. They spew nothing but hate, pablum and ignorance.

Expand full comment

You could not be more wrong. My wife works in guidance in a local HS. Those kids are sent into a regular classroom and can't speak English. No money! Then some relative speaking broken English will call the school to complain about no ESL. This is destroying public education.Wake up.

Expand full comment

Nobody should say to an other country how to handle their business, that was just part of my answer to PG V . Still I do believe that the majority of the emigrants are persons who want to work and have a better life . Of course as all émigrations you don’t get «  la crème de la crème «  there is always criminals among them , but the majority are looking for a better life . Between a wall and a «  laisser aller «  it s most be a middle ground to give a chance to some of those persons ... again my point of vue , I was one immigrant from south of Spain to Switzerland and I am still today very thankful to the Swiss who gave my family that chance .

Expand full comment

My guess is that you had something to offer the Swiss in the way of skills, education or profession and immigrated legally, in compliance with their laws and system. That is what I call "middle ground".

It's possible to do and it happens in the U.S. probably more than it should because we have moronic laws that enable many branches of a family to "chain migrate". So we might get a quality immigrant that adds to our economy and society and then they bring their siblings, cousins, parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles etc. The price outweighs the prize in too many cases. I'm guessing you can't bring that many family members with you into Switzerland.

Expand full comment

Any spouse with a working permit can bring the other spouse children and their father and mother .

If this spouse manage to find an entrepreneur who will give a job and a working permit , which a Swiss did not want to apply for ( prouve as to be show that the entrepreneur did search Swiss citizens ) to a cousin , oncle or sister bother , then again the same rule apply if married with children that all can come . I guess it s still like that , few years haven’t check .

Expand full comment

Love your post.

Expand full comment

Yes, November. Vote every Republican out of office. Purge those snakes out. All of them. Then raise taxes on every household earning 75,000 or more, especially the rich. No money for the war machine. No wall. No shooting. Indict Trump, have trial, send him to prison for 30 years. Save democracy.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Not communist. Real Christian, not fake evangelical "Christians."

Expand full comment

" I like your Christianity, I do not like your Christians. " Gandhi

Expand full comment

Yea that Hindu caste system that he was apart of has worked out great for the people of India. You either believe Jesus when he said "I am the way, the truth and the life, NO ONE will come to the Father except through me or reject it at your own peril. Your choice. Choose wisely.

Expand full comment

40 million Americans on food stamps. We have our own caste system.

Expand full comment

Jesus also said, "Other sheep I have which are not of this fold."

Expand full comment
deletedOct 9, 2022·edited Oct 9, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

You never judge, do you? Do you?

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

XXXX

Expand full comment