Model Lives Matter

Statistically speaking, the fed's Inflation Reduction Act is 93.281% balderdash

(Source: Getty Images)

Bill Bonner, reckoning today from Youghal, Ireland...

We came back to Ireland last night, flying from Dulles directly to Dublin. Dulles Airport was strangely quiet… as if everyone knew it was about to be bombed by terrorists – everyone but us.

But no bomb went off. Instead, it was much like the old days. Few people wore masks. There were no long delays. The Homeland Security crew were even polite.  

A fluke? A trend? We don’t know.

Yesterday, we looked at the $739 billion Inflation Reduction Act, IRA.

What the heck is it? An attempt to control the world’s temperature? An effort to reduce deficits and inflation? Is it meant to save lives… increase GDP… boost jobs? Or is it just another Democratic Party giveaway to favored groups and artful lobbyists?

Robbery, Flimflam and Jackassery

Yahoo!News focused on the environmental angle:

Climate change bill would cut U.S. air pollution deaths by up to 3,900 per year, study finds

The budget reconciliation bill that Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W. Va., agreed to with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., could save up to 3,900 lives per year by 2030, thanks to reduced air pollution, according to a new study from the nonpartisan think tank Energy Innovation.

The bill, known as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), contains $369 billion in spending to address climate change over 10 years, in addition to other provisions, including closing tax loopholes and holding down the rate of increase in the cost of prescription medication. 

But wait, there’s more….

“The IRA provisions could also generate enormous public health and jobs benefits,” the report states. In addition to preventing between 3,700 and 3,900 premature deaths from air pollution in 2030, Energy Innovation found it would lead to a net increase of up to 1.5 million jobs in 2030 and increase the United States' gross domestic product by 0.84% to 0.88% in 2030.

What kind of morons do they take us for?  

This grab bag of boondoggles will increase US GDP by 0.84% eight years from now? It will save 3,700 to 3,900 lives? Really?

The technocratic precision is breathtakingly absurd. There is no way on Earth to predict the effect of this collection of robbery, flimflam and jackassery on our $24 trillion economy… 8 years in the future. And to 2 decimal points! If passed, it will be doctored up, interpreted… bent and persuaded to suit the people in control of it.  And then… it will run into the real world. Like an invasion of Russia… no Great Campaign ever survives the initial shock.

Politically Correct Hypotheticals

The number of saved lives, too, is screaming claptrap. There again, the nonsense mounts on stilts… with a projection that the “low” estimate for Black lives saved is 0.14%. The ‘high’ estimate is 0.14%. And yet the ‘moderate’ estimate is 0.13%.  (We’re as puzzled as you are. But if the math is curious, at least the numbers are politically correct; 0.02% more Black lives are saved than White lives!)

How can democracy function with such gobbledygook dressed up like ‘science?’  What’s a poor voter to think? How can he think at all?

But no matter. Here come the heavies… five former treasury secretaries… throwing their weight behind the IRA. Business Insider:

The former treasury secretaries backing the proposal are:

• Larry Summers, who served under President Bill Clinton

• Robert Rubin, who served under President Bill Clinton

• Hank Paulson, who served under President George W. Bush

• Tim Geithner, who served under President Barack Obama

• Jacob Lew, who served under President Barack Obama

That does it for us. If they’re for it, we’re agin’ it.  

The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, looked at the tax angle, renaming the bill “The Schumer-Manchin Tax Increase on Everyone.” The Journal says the bill will make Americans poorer. 

Of course, making people poorer is the effect (but not the intention) of almost all federal legislation. The feds take from the many (thus making them poorer) and give to the few (making them richer.) Result: most people are poorer.

All the other promises, projections and estimates for the IRA will fail. Poverty will triumph.     

Regards,

Bill Bonner

Joel’s Note: Digging a little deeper into the Energy Innovation “report” (it’s only 8 pages; you can review it here), we discover some more startlingly precise assertions. For instance, did you know that reduced air pollution in the modeled scenarios – that is, harmful particulate matter in the planet’s atmosphere… 8 years from now – could lead to “99,000 to 100,000 avoided asthma attacks, and 405,000 to 417,000 avoided lost workdays.”

Hmm… surely “workdays” are good for an economy, right? And what kind of sadistic nut is pro asthma attacks?

Ah, but what constitutes a “workday,” you wonder? Performed by who and at what cost? Public or private? Worthwhile or not? Buggy whip maker or rocket scientist? Prostitute or politician?

Dear reader, if you have to ask, it’s probably because you’re one of those America-hating asthma attack lovers!

As for the hypothetical “lives saved,” the typically indolent press crudely rounded the numbers off. The Energy Innovation team were far more exacting in their pretense to knowledge. Indeed, when it comes to “avoided premature mortalities in the year 2030,” the IRA will save between 3,731 (on the low end) and 3,894 souls (on the high end).

And yes, before you ask, all possible variables have been taken into account, including the known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

Why, at a mere $189,487,179.487 per “avoided premature mortality,” being against the IRA is practically tantamount to being against democracy itself. For shame!