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Brien's avatar

Recall in 2011 when the IBM supercomputer Watson beat the top 2 Jeopardy champions. This was AI come of age, we were told. I must admit that at the time I was a bit stunned, in a way that Deep Blue’s defeat of Garry Kasparov in 1997 failed to elicit. A computer winning at Chess was mostly number crunching, I told myself. But Jeopardy? Now that was truly impressive. The toughest Jeopardy questions require non-linear “thinking”, the ability to connect disparate dots and see similarities in dissimilar things. A top notch information store and the ability to solve a complex thought puzzle in seconds is the ticket. Few people have the ability. Computers? Forget about it! It had been long said that a computer could never win at Jeopardy because a computer could, never ever really simulate and best a human brain at precisely the thing that human brains were best at. And then it happened.

Or did it?

In 2011 it never would have occurred to me that maybe, just maybe, Watson had the answers ahead of time. I am not making that claim here. I am simply saying that what I know about the world we live in now and what I knew about it 12 years ago has undergone a kind of Bayesian inference transformation. I was never a Conspiracy theorist. In 2021 I claimed my honorary degree and went straight to Conspiracy Analyst.

AI may be many things. Among them may be the greatest PsyOps tool ever imagined by the imaginers.

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𝐓𝐢𝐦 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐝𝐰𝐢𝐧's avatar

While everyone is pre-occupied with AI, the debt ceiling, and the NBA/Hockey championships, as a retired nuclear engineer I focus on the impending catastrophe at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. This is my "black swan". Since being captured by the Russians, more than half its staff have left, equipment is degrading due to lack of proper maintenance, the idiot Russian military violate safety protocols all the time, shelling occurs nearby, and there is only a single source of outside power to cool its reactors. Sooner or later luck will run out, and the world will be faced with a nuclear accident and the release of radioactivity into the environment. How bad will it be? Don't know, but it could be very bad! I don't see any evidence that Biden and his NATO are doing anything to address this concern. As for the Russians, I would not be surprised if they sabotaged the plant should they have to retreat in the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. Not really a BPR issue, but thanks anyway for letting me vent on this....

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