In a normal stock market, some companies do well; their stocks go up. Some don’t do so well; their stocks go down. Researchers try to figure out — in advance — which are which. Good research pays off.
I wish we could get a "clean" column from Bonner more often instead of today's mixed bag. While I don't disagree with his conclusions and some of his points, he starts off on the wrong foot by quoting the following: ‘Behind every great fortune is a crime,’ wrote Balzac. This is a quote any looney-tune leftist would embrace. There are frauds in this world that make fortunes for a least a while until they get exposed, but there are thousands upon thousands that make their fortunes legitimately. Bonner then goes on to cite a fraud as if to verify the quote - it doesn't. If you think I'm nitpicking, I would counter that how you present your case is important. Bonner supposedly represents a free market perspective, but this is how he starts his column?
In addition, while Bonner's supposition that the stock market may be juiced by the Fed, by hype, etc. is certainly true, his statement that one company's sales takes away from another company sales and therefore the stock market should only rise by 3% annually is only partially true. As anyone knows, innovation and completely new technology and products can build new markets. And while these new markets may impact the current market, it is not out of the question that it grows the economy in a new direction. So, yes, today's stock market gains are suspect re Bonner's point, but that is not always the case.
I used to enjoy reading Bill's editorials; however, "something" has happened in Bill's tone, world view and the heightened bombastic sarcasm has become effusive, boring and droll. These days I just scroll down and see what the real investment advisors have to say and pass on Bill's diatribes. Yes, I did read this one because Dan shared the byline -- same bombastic nonsense rife with elitism and non-sequitur metaphors: yawn. The sad thing is that he thinks he's clever. As you pointed out , John -- not so much.
The simplest economic lesson you can give those who don't understand is "demand doesn't create supply (the socialist model), supply creates demand (the capitalist model)". Over simplified but close.
Also agree with you calling out the Trojan Horse argument on great fortunes.
Hi Dan I just wanted to try to clarify one of your points on Bessett today. The crypto community for the most part is not interested in supporting a central cryptocurrency which would be run by the government. Thus, Bessett remark was in line the crypto community. However, having a bitcoin reserve is considered desirable since it would validate and increase demand and is different than a central bank cryptocurrency. It would just be like holding a gold reserve or oil reserve.
Actually, a "crypto reserve" isn't possible. Cryptos are just like US$ - they are fake currency and they are a credit and require an offsetting debit. Nothing can be made from a crypto - the world, if anybody is paying attention - is moving to commodities. Cryptos are not commodites. Watch and think about what China and the BRICS are doing - they are accumulating commodities and setting up alliances with countries with commodities to trade. That's the whole idea about the Belt & Road plus building ports and infrastructure in places such as Peru and Africa. Capitalism has and will continue to move to the East. Just like when capitalism moved from Britain to the U.S. - it is happening and no matter what the U.S. does, it won't get it back. People - it is going to be ugly and putting your hope and money behind these scams..........really? The U.S. doesn't even have a "gold reserve". The Feds with their fake currency see gold as their hated competitor. They have and continue to try and kill it. Won't happen. Wake up and smell the coffee!
Hence one of the MANY reasons to secure and control the new "Northern Passage" Trade Route right next door to Greenland. If we don't do it, it's GUARANTEED that China and/or Russia will.
Curious.....last look there is water between Canada and Greenland, Greenland and Iceland, and so on. How does this "secure" the Northern Passage and for what? Seems just more conflicts since Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark with Home Rule. It is 80% ice. Russia nor China want to "invade" the U.S. or Europe for that matter. Both want not to be threatened by the US/West - simple. With any rational look at China or the BRICS it is clear they just want to grow their economies. And, YES, they are sick and tired of the US/West hegemony, sanctions, and tariffs. Seems glass belly-buttons are needed.......
I'm referring to a new route that is being prepped by Russian Ice Breaking ships as I type.
To answer your question: Simple Trade Principles and the Law of the Sea. Same with the Panama Canal which was foolishly given away by the very naive Jimmy Carter. If/When our adversaries decide to deny the US access to these vital routes, war is the next step. We need to be a step ahead of that to maintain trade and keep Peace...
And, what is the problem with that???? Russia shouldn't be allowed by the Holy American Empire to expand its trade? Really? Only America is good and righteous! Seriously? America needs to re-focus on America - not foreign wars, sanctions, and tariffs. The U.S. infrastructure is in horrible shape. But, "Oh, No" - run off to secure some northern passage for what? America isn't a manufacturing empire anymore - zero, zlitch, nada. The BRICS have well over 1/2 the population and at least half the world's GDP. The U.S. isn't improving infrastructure anywhere - just more tanks, missiles, etc. It is so sad to watch as it continues to slide into the swamp amids denial, denial, denial. Unfortunately, capitalism has moved.......get used to it!
Gee, I guess you're right. No problem at all with letting Countries that hate us and want to see our destruction take control of 2 out of the 5 major shipping routes. No problem at all, right? Cause Orange Man Bad or some such ignorance...
If by "strategic" you mean emptied purposefully in a lame effort to lower gas prices to backstop a feeble, damaging attempt to buy the vote of the more ignorant among us, then yeah - strategic it was...
Bill...Great article..a a great pic of a Kodiak bear. I saw one such beast fly fishing for salmon on the Kenai RIver in Alaska. I'm a bit of a photog myself having contributed many 4x6 transparencies to a stock photo agency in London. Anyway...You're the best opening act in my day here in Tokyo these days! Keep on keeping on.
Aargh, ‘ya hit a slight nerve on me today Mr Bonner with, “…Chanos is best-known for his bet against Enron…”; back then I didn’t take that bet, and myself and others did not know there were two (2) sets of books at Enron…thanks for the 36% haircut Kennie Lay & Jeffie Skilling. NOT!
I’m just working REAL hard on not getting totally depressed by missing out on the roaring comeback in the market from the Dow 29,000 point by following the advice in this letter. Oh well. So it goes.
Why don't you guys have a "dislike" button on each comment????? I don't like Gallien's complaints most of the time so why can't I check a dislike button???????
I like your comment on the workings of the stock market (it’s ups, it’s downs. It’s growth according to the GDP, production of goods and services, etc). I even agree with you on Bitcoin ( or fartcoin as you call it). I assume people are buying bitcoin as a result of our dollar becoming worth less and less with the crazy money printing the U.S. is doing. AP
Excellent Link Starboard. That’s a fun diversion whilst awaiting Denning’s exposé today about “… look at the Dollar Index, 10-year US bond yields, and what may be Bessent’s first real financial crisis.”
Let’s amplify P&N Pelosi’s holdings by taking a look at the Dow 30 on ValueLine -
The Oracle of Omaha (ol’ Warren Buffet) acknowledged being a aficionado of VL. But, one has to know how to read these tea leaves to even begin to make any sense of it whatsoever.
Anyone can do an autopsy of every single one of N&P’s (supposed) holdings. And if one has the nerves for taking an “informed” equity stake, VL’s a good starting point.
I forgot one comment. The reason-Bitcoin is being used as a ‘safety’ crypto against the dollar. There are some crypto coins that have usage and value. As much as it is a relative new way of transactions, there are some coins that are being used by many banks and companies (currently mostly outside the U.S.) Some of these cryptos reduce cost which will improve the net return to these companies. For example, XRP, XLM and VET.
I wish we could get a "clean" column from Bonner more often instead of today's mixed bag. While I don't disagree with his conclusions and some of his points, he starts off on the wrong foot by quoting the following: ‘Behind every great fortune is a crime,’ wrote Balzac. This is a quote any looney-tune leftist would embrace. There are frauds in this world that make fortunes for a least a while until they get exposed, but there are thousands upon thousands that make their fortunes legitimately. Bonner then goes on to cite a fraud as if to verify the quote - it doesn't. If you think I'm nitpicking, I would counter that how you present your case is important. Bonner supposedly represents a free market perspective, but this is how he starts his column?
In addition, while Bonner's supposition that the stock market may be juiced by the Fed, by hype, etc. is certainly true, his statement that one company's sales takes away from another company sales and therefore the stock market should only rise by 3% annually is only partially true. As anyone knows, innovation and completely new technology and products can build new markets. And while these new markets may impact the current market, it is not out of the question that it grows the economy in a new direction. So, yes, today's stock market gains are suspect re Bonner's point, but that is not always the case.
I used to enjoy reading Bill's editorials; however, "something" has happened in Bill's tone, world view and the heightened bombastic sarcasm has become effusive, boring and droll. These days I just scroll down and see what the real investment advisors have to say and pass on Bill's diatribes. Yes, I did read this one because Dan shared the byline -- same bombastic nonsense rife with elitism and non-sequitur metaphors: yawn. The sad thing is that he thinks he's clever. As you pointed out , John -- not so much.
Well put.
The simplest economic lesson you can give those who don't understand is "demand doesn't create supply (the socialist model), supply creates demand (the capitalist model)". Over simplified but close.
Also agree with you calling out the Trojan Horse argument on great fortunes.
Hi Dan I just wanted to try to clarify one of your points on Bessett today. The crypto community for the most part is not interested in supporting a central cryptocurrency which would be run by the government. Thus, Bessett remark was in line the crypto community. However, having a bitcoin reserve is considered desirable since it would validate and increase demand and is different than a central bank cryptocurrency. It would just be like holding a gold reserve or oil reserve.
Actually, a "crypto reserve" isn't possible. Cryptos are just like US$ - they are fake currency and they are a credit and require an offsetting debit. Nothing can be made from a crypto - the world, if anybody is paying attention - is moving to commodities. Cryptos are not commodites. Watch and think about what China and the BRICS are doing - they are accumulating commodities and setting up alliances with countries with commodities to trade. That's the whole idea about the Belt & Road plus building ports and infrastructure in places such as Peru and Africa. Capitalism has and will continue to move to the East. Just like when capitalism moved from Britain to the U.S. - it is happening and no matter what the U.S. does, it won't get it back. People - it is going to be ugly and putting your hope and money behind these scams..........really? The U.S. doesn't even have a "gold reserve". The Feds with their fake currency see gold as their hated competitor. They have and continue to try and kill it. Won't happen. Wake up and smell the coffee!
Hence one of the MANY reasons to secure and control the new "Northern Passage" Trade Route right next door to Greenland. If we don't do it, it's GUARANTEED that China and/or Russia will.
Stable Genius, while the morons mock....
Curious.....last look there is water between Canada and Greenland, Greenland and Iceland, and so on. How does this "secure" the Northern Passage and for what? Seems just more conflicts since Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark with Home Rule. It is 80% ice. Russia nor China want to "invade" the U.S. or Europe for that matter. Both want not to be threatened by the US/West - simple. With any rational look at China or the BRICS it is clear they just want to grow their economies. And, YES, they are sick and tired of the US/West hegemony, sanctions, and tariffs. Seems glass belly-buttons are needed.......
I'm referring to a new route that is being prepped by Russian Ice Breaking ships as I type.
To answer your question: Simple Trade Principles and the Law of the Sea. Same with the Panama Canal which was foolishly given away by the very naive Jimmy Carter. If/When our adversaries decide to deny the US access to these vital routes, war is the next step. We need to be a step ahead of that to maintain trade and keep Peace...
https://www.shipuniverse.com/2025-shipping-routes-forecast-opportunities-risks-and-trends/#7
https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2024/7/11/us-canada-finland-sign-agreement-to-build-icebreakers
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Arctic-Shipping-Routes-Map-legend-1.png
And, what is the problem with that???? Russia shouldn't be allowed by the Holy American Empire to expand its trade? Really? Only America is good and righteous! Seriously? America needs to re-focus on America - not foreign wars, sanctions, and tariffs. The U.S. infrastructure is in horrible shape. But, "Oh, No" - run off to secure some northern passage for what? America isn't a manufacturing empire anymore - zero, zlitch, nada. The BRICS have well over 1/2 the population and at least half the world's GDP. The U.S. isn't improving infrastructure anywhere - just more tanks, missiles, etc. It is so sad to watch as it continues to slide into the swamp amids denial, denial, denial. Unfortunately, capitalism has moved.......get used to it!
Gee, I guess you're right. No problem at all with letting Countries that hate us and want to see our destruction take control of 2 out of the 5 major shipping routes. No problem at all, right? Cause Orange Man Bad or some such ignorance...
While capitalism moving to the east is not inevitable, and China is a mixed economy at best, you do make several good points.
Ohh man, ‘ya had me in the 2nd sentence right up to the hyphen 💯➕💯
Edit (darn it, link didn’t stick): https://x.com/anilsaidso/status/1737349670949777457/photo/1
M
I hope the Treasury will be able to keep their password secure.
Do we have an oil reserve?
Yes, we still do, and note my reply to Deborah following.
strategic petroleum reserve
You’re correct..and #46 did not pump and did dump…
The maximum capacity of the SPR is 714 million barrels.
The total percentage drawdown during #46’s administration is **approximately 40.7%.
The bulk of sales from the SPR went primarily to domestic refiners and companies within the United States.
Cheers,
Mark
** As of January 2025, reports indicate that approximately 260 million barrels have been released from the SPR during his administration.
Wasn’t that strategically emptied?
If by "strategic" you mean emptied purposefully in a lame effort to lower gas prices to backstop a feeble, damaging attempt to buy the vote of the more ignorant among us, then yeah - strategic it was...
Bill...Great article..a a great pic of a Kodiak bear. I saw one such beast fly fishing for salmon on the Kenai RIver in Alaska. I'm a bit of a photog myself having contributed many 4x6 transparencies to a stock photo agency in London. Anyway...You're the best opening act in my day here in Tokyo these days! Keep on keeping on.
DAY-UM James! I had NO idea that Kodiak bears could Fly Fish...
LOL ---
I imagine they can do pretty much what they please. Best always. PM
It wasn't a Kodiak. It was a Polaroid.
I heard they shake themselves until they dry...
No, they’re white.
Don't mean to rain on your parade, James, but what you saw wasn't a Kodiak. They don't live on the Kenai.
And browns aren't very common on the river, so you should count yourself lucky that you got to see one of those.
Don’t keep me in suspense. How did you do catch wise on the Kenai R. salmon?
Gonna need a tech guy. I'm planning a Valentine's Day launch of "S**t-Your-Pants Coin." (Possibly with JB as a spokesperson?) Anybody know a guy?
Aargh, ‘ya hit a slight nerve on me today Mr Bonner with, “…Chanos is best-known for his bet against Enron…”; back then I didn’t take that bet, and myself and others did not know there were two (2) sets of books at Enron…thanks for the 36% haircut Kennie Lay & Jeffie Skilling. NOT!
Best Regards,
Mark
I’m just working REAL hard on not getting totally depressed by missing out on the roaring comeback in the market from the Dow 29,000 point by following the advice in this letter. Oh well. So it goes.
Why don't you guys have a "dislike" button on each comment????? I don't like Gallien's complaints most of the time so why can't I check a dislike button???????
The understanding I get from the Balzac quote is that "great fortune" is of historic significance.
It does not directly impute that the presently supremely fortunate was, were or are explicitly involved in an original sin.
Bill:
I like your comment on the workings of the stock market (it’s ups, it’s downs. It’s growth according to the GDP, production of goods and services, etc). I even agree with you on Bitcoin ( or fartcoin as you call it). I assume people are buying bitcoin as a result of our dollar becoming worth less and less with the crazy money printing the U.S. is doing. AP
You are confarting Bitcoin with Fart coin.
Some go up, some go down. I've made a lot of guesses. Getting exhausted by the game. May just switch to following Debbie, seems like the best idea.
Hiya Mac -
Over the long haul, you might do better following Nasty Piglosi and Hammerhole Paul. They make Lil' Debbie look like a piker picker...
https://stockscan.io/nancy-pelosi-stock-tracker
Excellent Link Starboard. That’s a fun diversion whilst awaiting Denning’s exposé today about “… look at the Dollar Index, 10-year US bond yields, and what may be Bessent’s first real financial crisis.”
Let’s amplify P&N Pelosi’s holdings by taking a look at the Dow 30 on ValueLine -
https://research.valueline.com/research#list=dow30&sec=list and there are many Dow30 tickers in P&N’s portfolio herein https://stockscan.io/nancy-pelosi-stock-tracker
The Oracle of Omaha (ol’ Warren Buffet) acknowledged being a aficionado of VL. But, one has to know how to read these tea leaves to even begin to make any sense of it whatsoever.
Those interested and so inclined, go here for the ValueLine report decoder - https://www.valuelinepro.com/sites/default/files/1503516_Reading_VL_Report_WEB.pdf & go to page 14, print it off for future reference.
Anyone can do an autopsy of every single one of N&P’s (supposed) holdings. And if one has the nerves for taking an “informed” equity stake, VL’s a good starting point.
Cheers,
Mark
Always fun reading from you Mackinac. Are you referring to the missive “Debbie Does D.C.? https://www.bonnerprivateresearch.com/p/debbie-does-dc
Yes but I'm just joking because investing is a joke now days.
yup
Bill:
I forgot one comment. The reason-Bitcoin is being used as a ‘safety’ crypto against the dollar. There are some crypto coins that have usage and value. As much as it is a relative new way of transactions, there are some coins that are being used by many banks and companies (currently mostly outside the U.S.) Some of these cryptos reduce cost which will improve the net return to these companies. For example, XRP, XLM and VET.