Bill, I absolutely love your writing. Its not just the years its the accumulated wisdom. One can learn a lot spending their lifetime attempting to connect the dots. Your writing bears the fruit of this journey. Another of my favorite authors, Richard Maybury, uses his accumulated wisdom to build and continually refine his model for how he sees the world. I'm very thankful to have access to the writings of giants like you and Richard.
You'll get no argument from me that the apparatchiks at the Fed will continue to be wrong. Central Planning has never worked for the commoner, but its a great tool for the elite to enrich themselves. We'll most likely get a temporary reprieve from this current bout of inflation with a nasty recession. Then the apparatchiks will crank up the printing press again and we'll get more of their sacred elixir, inflation. Yeah, its inflate or die rather we like it or not.
Bill, another great missive. One area that BPR needs to add is an "expert" on the new asset class of bitcoin mining. There is a stampede of institutional investors, HNWI, nation states and companies showing interest in this space for the very reasons set forth in your article. Hope you will get current with the times. Expecting bitcoin mining to go away is like expecting the internet to be a fad.
Bitcoin mining is for the most part over, 2 million coins left to mine. The cost to mine is now almost cost prohibitive (until the price rises) those mining in a cost effective way are using solar and hydro to do so. Finding a expert is the challenge the space if full of experts, I don't think there is a single person who could be defined as an expert in all aspects of Crypto. There are layers of crypto that are not seen by visiting a CEX (centralized exchange). Coins go up and down for no apparent reason. Some are real but many are fake or doomed to go to zero. In 2016 I took the plunge, made a few bucks, in 2018 crypto tanked across the board. This turned out to be a long pull back, abandoning my positions on a CEX I was reward to find one $247 coin had turned into $3000. That stake I quickly learned was going nowhere, the game had in fact changed. The price actions of assets are changing based on the added layer of Defi and liquidity staking. This part of the market is rife with risk as the lowest interest rate from the safest deployment of funds is 7%. Where the highest and of course riskiest part of the market can return from 20% to a couple thousand percent APY. I currently have funds earning 2% per day. A small investment of $500 Euros will be $16k at the end of year as the funds are inside of an auto compounding pool.
My advice don't jump into the space unless the intent is to remain in the safest coins those pegged to the USD. I've taken the easy route and paid the admission to join a group of experts. Tuition is high but so are the rewards and the knowledge I'll be gaining. In a few months I'll go from sorting fish in the market to catching lending money to the fishing industry suppling the market.
The crypto you see on the centralized exchanges has in most cases found its peg price. Money is minted by investing in the start ups at the very beginning of the process. Imagine the wealth created by early investors in Ethereum and Bitcoin deployment. I ignored the space for the most part but have now come to understand the USD or any other national fiat currency will dominate the new internet being created in the next few years. Paypal, Venmo, Wells Fargo are all trying to get a foot in the door of the new internet of money. They will have a share based on the efficiency of their protocols but long gone will be their CEO taking home a $75 million dollar paycheck while the depostitors get .1% return.
Inflation is not something to be concerned about. The government is balancing the consumer price index relative to the higher prices in the oil and food sectors. You may see $5 a gallon price notch on one end, and a pair of jeans or T-Shirt price drop of 25% or higher on the other, thus balancing the domestic growth price fluctuations that promote consumer spending to maintain equivalent junction points across the board.
It seems that a main concern is the stock market and how it reacts to bond and inflation movements, but that should be the least of our worries, the black swan on the horizon will make Chernobyl look like spilled milk. 😂
Bill, As you have pointed out historically,Powell doesn't have to go back to college and get a Master's degree in transitory inflation to understand what is going on, he just needs to re-read Volker's actions in 1979 -80's to know what to do to arrest inflation.President Carter tried many different options to arrest inflation,no luck,solution hire Volker.Why do we continually elect and hire clueless idiots? Answer=cause I'm a clueless idiot?
tried to long on the Byron King "meeting". every time I try to logon and "find" a link I must be too dense to find it, or you guys are doing a poor job of posting it. I clicked on "follow this link" which took me to a new page where I could comment (along with a whole bunch of others), but no link or connectability.
Bill, I absolutely love your writing. Its not just the years its the accumulated wisdom. One can learn a lot spending their lifetime attempting to connect the dots. Your writing bears the fruit of this journey. Another of my favorite authors, Richard Maybury, uses his accumulated wisdom to build and continually refine his model for how he sees the world. I'm very thankful to have access to the writings of giants like you and Richard.
You'll get no argument from me that the apparatchiks at the Fed will continue to be wrong. Central Planning has never worked for the commoner, but its a great tool for the elite to enrich themselves. We'll most likely get a temporary reprieve from this current bout of inflation with a nasty recession. Then the apparatchiks will crank up the printing press again and we'll get more of their sacred elixir, inflation. Yeah, its inflate or die rather we like it or not.
"But the inflation readings soon did ‘overshoot’… like a pilot who aims for LAX and mistakenly lands on the moon."
My hope is that Bill outlives us all. I want to be able to shuffle off this mortal coil, laughing to his missives until my last days.
Yeah, I'm selfish in that regard. Almost as bad as federal policy makers?
Yeah, no.
Bill, another great missive. One area that BPR needs to add is an "expert" on the new asset class of bitcoin mining. There is a stampede of institutional investors, HNWI, nation states and companies showing interest in this space for the very reasons set forth in your article. Hope you will get current with the times. Expecting bitcoin mining to go away is like expecting the internet to be a fad.
Bitcoin mining is for the most part over, 2 million coins left to mine. The cost to mine is now almost cost prohibitive (until the price rises) those mining in a cost effective way are using solar and hydro to do so. Finding a expert is the challenge the space if full of experts, I don't think there is a single person who could be defined as an expert in all aspects of Crypto. There are layers of crypto that are not seen by visiting a CEX (centralized exchange). Coins go up and down for no apparent reason. Some are real but many are fake or doomed to go to zero. In 2016 I took the plunge, made a few bucks, in 2018 crypto tanked across the board. This turned out to be a long pull back, abandoning my positions on a CEX I was reward to find one $247 coin had turned into $3000. That stake I quickly learned was going nowhere, the game had in fact changed. The price actions of assets are changing based on the added layer of Defi and liquidity staking. This part of the market is rife with risk as the lowest interest rate from the safest deployment of funds is 7%. Where the highest and of course riskiest part of the market can return from 20% to a couple thousand percent APY. I currently have funds earning 2% per day. A small investment of $500 Euros will be $16k at the end of year as the funds are inside of an auto compounding pool.
My advice don't jump into the space unless the intent is to remain in the safest coins those pegged to the USD. I've taken the easy route and paid the admission to join a group of experts. Tuition is high but so are the rewards and the knowledge I'll be gaining. In a few months I'll go from sorting fish in the market to catching lending money to the fishing industry suppling the market.
The crypto you see on the centralized exchanges has in most cases found its peg price. Money is minted by investing in the start ups at the very beginning of the process. Imagine the wealth created by early investors in Ethereum and Bitcoin deployment. I ignored the space for the most part but have now come to understand the USD or any other national fiat currency will dominate the new internet being created in the next few years. Paypal, Venmo, Wells Fargo are all trying to get a foot in the door of the new internet of money. They will have a share based on the efficiency of their protocols but long gone will be their CEO taking home a $75 million dollar paycheck while the depostitors get .1% return.
Inflation is not something to be concerned about. The government is balancing the consumer price index relative to the higher prices in the oil and food sectors. You may see $5 a gallon price notch on one end, and a pair of jeans or T-Shirt price drop of 25% or higher on the other, thus balancing the domestic growth price fluctuations that promote consumer spending to maintain equivalent junction points across the board.
It seems that a main concern is the stock market and how it reacts to bond and inflation movements, but that should be the least of our worries, the black swan on the horizon will make Chernobyl look like spilled milk. 😂
Not much purpose in raising interest rates to control inflation while spending trillions of dollars while doing so.
Bill, As you have pointed out historically,Powell doesn't have to go back to college and get a Master's degree in transitory inflation to understand what is going on, he just needs to re-read Volker's actions in 1979 -80's to know what to do to arrest inflation.President Carter tried many different options to arrest inflation,no luck,solution hire Volker.Why do we continually elect and hire clueless idiots? Answer=cause I'm a clueless idiot?
tried to long on the Byron King "meeting". every time I try to logon and "find" a link I must be too dense to find it, or you guys are doing a poor job of posting it. I clicked on "follow this link" which took me to a new page where I could comment (along with a whole bunch of others), but no link or connectability.
no link to today's Bryton presentation...pls advise how I can listen in...tks.
No link to follow here