Invade Canada

The long march of human civilization was a process of taking things ‘off the table.’ Murder. Rape. Robbery. Aggressive war. Killing prisoners of war. Torture. Using force to get what you want.

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Thursday, January 9^th, 2025

Bill Bonner writing from Youghal, Ireland

Our hypothesis... as far as we know, not shared by any reputable historian, geopolitician or analyst... is that the election of Donald Trump does not represent a real change of direction. Instead, it is an intensification of an existing trend... speeding up towards the final catastrophe of bankruptcy, war and inflation.

The Primary Political Trend is toward more power and wealth concentrated in the political class... the elites of both parties. Is it a trend that has been going on at least since Jimmy Carter left the White House. Now, it is becoming more flagrant... more corrupt... and more dangerous.

Just read the headlines. The Financial Times reports:

Pfizer executives descend on Mar-a-Lago resort in attempt to curry favor

Here’s another one from the same paper:

Meta reins in fact-checking as Zuckerberg builds bridges to Trump

Those fact-checking teams were there to build bridges with the last administration. They didn’t just ‘check’ the facts... they distorted them for political purposes. They massaged them to suit their federal overlords.

Why spend so much effort to curry favor with the White House? Did elite CEOs descend on Plains, GA, when Jimmy Carter was elected? Did they quickly change their policies to please him? There is no record of it.

But in the intervening years, the government became much more powerful... and the favor of the man in the driver’s seat can now make — or break — a business. CNN:

Biden killed US Steel deal even though some US officials rejected national security concerns

“National security” merely masks another power grab by the political elites. So do ‘regulations.’

In the early 20th century, it took an amendment to the Constitution to make booze illegal. Yet here’s Joe Biden, attempting to ban cigarettes on his own say-so, by changing a regulation. The Washington Examiner:

President Joe Biden is seeking to regulate nicotine levels in cigarettes in a last-ditch attempt to lower national smoking rates, yet opponents of the move say it will have catastrophic, downstream effects on the economy and crime. If adopted, his Food and Drug Administration rule would set a new maximum nicotine level for cigarettes, effectively banning virtually all cigarettes currently available for commercial purchase in the United States.

And here’s Donald Trump, considering a State of Emergency declaration so he can jam a baton into the spokes of world trade. Fortune:

Trump is reportedly considering declaring a national economic emergency to make his tariffs happen

Donald Trump, the once and future president and self-proclaimed “Tariff man,” could declare a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for universal tariffs he floated on the campaign trail and since his victory, according to CNN, which cited four people familiar with the matter. 

One source told the outlet that Trump is a fan of the law because of how comprehensive it is, in that he can decide how tariffs are put into play without proving their necessity. “Nothing is off the table,” another person familiar told CNN.

Nothing off the table?

The long march of human civilization was essentially a process of taking things ‘off the table.’ Murder. Rape. Robbery. Aggressive war. Killing prisoners of war. Torture. Generally, using force to get what you want rather than bargaining for it peacefully became a no-no.

But the primary political trend turns down, from time to time; civilization retreats. Now, both Republicans and Democrats support ripping off the public with deficits and inflation... as well as more bombing in the Ukraine and the Levant. No apologies for Guantanamo.

And the Trump team says it might even invade Greenland... or Panama... or Mexico. As for Canada, if it doesn’t get on board with the Trump agenda, whatever it is, it risks ‘severe financial sanctions.’

Still on the same road, in other words. But as the Irish say, the driver is no longer just swilling Guinness; he’s moved on to Jameson.

Regards,

Bill Bonner

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Research Note, by Dan Denning

US stock markets are closed today to honor the death of former President Jimmy Carter. Bond markets, however, are open until 2pm Eastern. We’ll be keeping our eye on US 10-year yields, mainly to see if they follow UK 30-year yields over 5% (a level, in the recent past, which has led to major financial and political turmoil). I’ll have more on this in my research note to paying subscribers tomorrow.

In the meantime, Tom’s market note yesterday (The Next Big Boom) introduced one of our big ideas for 2025: That real assets are massively undervalued relative to financial assets (bonds, but especially growth/tech/momentum/large cap stocks). How can you be sure?

Check out the chart below. This is the ratio between commodities (as represented by the Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index), and the Nasdaq 100 (which includes the Mag 7). The chart goes back to 1997. The dip on the far left is the crash in tech in 2000. The period of stability between 2002 and 2011 includes the rally in gold and oil over that time, while stocks licked their wounds. And now we have what looks like a double bottom, where ‘stuff’ or ‘real assets’ have rarely been cheaper relative to the future cash flows promised by disruptive technologies like AI and quantum computing.