A sustained drop in interest rates should make other income streams — say, corporate earnings — relatively more valuable. A rise in interest rates makes bonds more attractive.
Bill, I agree with the long term trend. It's hard for us mortals to sit still and wait for time to pass. Tom referenced a Charles Gave book back in March. Porter Stansberry put out a new book in May about the End of America. Both books discuss the same pattern and steps people should consider to avoid disaster. Both mention Harry Brown as the original author of the overall strategy. The bottom line for all of us is IT TAKES TIME for the big events to roll out. The hardest part for me is SITTING STILL and letting the events unfold. I hope at this point in life I don't make any more stupid mistakes.
The Stansberry book is very very good. For him, all the arguments people have about society, politics and economics (on here and elsewhere) are pointless because the one big problem that we don't see or want to acknowledge is that there is a silent depression where everyone is getting poorer: and that this and the coming currency reset is the main problem individuals and society have to solve.
Ian, that's part of the books thesis but the the key strategy for the investor is the Four Quadrant Framework for allocation of funds depending on the Inflationary or Deflationary direction of the economy. Much different from the normal buy low, sell high mindset.
It’s going to snow. It’s going to snow. Say it long enough and the prediction will come true. When it does, the sage says “See I told you so.” Now Bill says dooms day is coming “if not this year, maybe next.” Problem is Bill super safety mode means your subscribers miss out on several growth and dividend histories that leaves them on the short end of the financial stick. Here’s a thought: What would hurt to make some investments that allow for enjoying the market gains but would not be the “first” ones to suffer when dooms day happens. Then help us recognize that it is time to bail on the market and go to the mattresses. Asking for a friend… .
So a very good missive today for three reasons. First, the was humble. Second, the information is worthy of the read and lastly, and maybe most importantly, no mention of Trump. Bill I know that last one was most difficult for you, but your dear readers very much appreciate your effort.
Quick question regarding the Dow/Gold ratio... What if we get to 5, but we get there by Gold making a big move upward, and the Dow staying relatively the same? I'm not sure I would want to let go of my Metal (let alone mortgage the house) to get back into the market, which would still be massively over inflated IMHO.
I think the strategy relies on the idea that dollars are not a reliable measure, but gold is. If one can't accept that, (and I make no argument that you should), investing/reality goes from pretty simple to completely unknowable. Just my thoughts.
Good question. For me personally, if that were to happen, I would still probably put 20% of my precious metals into the market. Maybe more. We live in very interesting yet very confusing times.
Re: “When will that happen?”, I am reminded of Monty Python’s infamous “one thin mint” skit, where the waiter (read Wall Street) cons the gluttonous diner (greedy investors) into having “just one thin mint” (the bull has longer to run ). The results are catastrophic. https://youtube.com/shorts/DCPvfOQ0mv8?si=4u8GchsPz8hBq74a
“Problem is Bill super safety mode means your subscribers miss out on several growth and dividend histories that leaves them on the short end of the financial stick.”….this has certainly been my experience here following BPR.
The point of super safety mode is capital preservation, not growth and I think Mr. Dyson has been very clear on that. My own portfolio follows the BPR portfolio fairly closely, particularly with respect to asset allocation. The mix of stocks I would say is a bit racier, that is a decision tailored to personal circumstance, but there is room to season to taste let's say.
Right. Avoiding “the Big Loss”, as a new retiree, was the appeal for me with BPR.
And the first BPR-stock recommendation from Dyson, shortly after I initially subscribed, was Costamare (CMRE). Remember that one? Well, Dyson shortly afterwards stopped us out for a loss. So much for that “avoid the Big Loss” thing.
And shortly after that, the market has ratcheted higher and higher, with BPR avoiding “the Big Gain.”
Question: With gold going down these past few months, who was selling? Was a country or two selling to buy oil? It certainly was not due to a plan in Congress to balance the budget! I heard that "Central Banks" have continued to buy, so again who is selling enough to knock the price down? Has someone sold that much to change the market, perhaps to buy Spacex?
What’s missing from this picture is bald, bold, blatant politics: What is Treasury and the Fed doing to support the current Republican-leaning regime against what seems like an increasingly demonic horde of Dems? The very short term is between now and the mid-terms. The next period is the final two years of Trump 2.0 unshackled except for wanting a worthy successor to solidify gains and burnish the “legacy.” We need some insight with that frame in mind as to what levers are being pulled.
Because the "H" in "historic" is pronounced, "a historic" is the standard and widely preferred form in modern English.
Secondly, Bill, spend some time exploring the dollar in relative terms to the other major currencies. You touched on it today. The dollar is rotting, no doubt. But what major currency is not infirmed with similar and worse afflictions? If you had to tell someone today, "dump the dollar," and they had to replace it with a currency, what would it be?
The "Primary Trend". The trend is no more. According to David Webb, the "cake is baked", securities are owned by JP Morgan, and your "beneficail ownership", "entitlement", "contract" provides you, if at all, in the case of insolvency, which is in process, a "pro-rata" share of your "securities". The solution" ? Change the UCC code article 8 at the state level asap. Stop funding the insanity. Short of that, he says the hour is near. Have as many physical assets as possible. Establish relationships with your neighbors. Grow anything you can. TruNorth Public Policy is the organization at the state level trying to cahnge the UCC code article 8. Join now. Get involved. Speak up.The Sec General of Nato has made it clear to the Europeans: Be prepared, or more, to endure what the europeans had to endure in the first and second world wars. Not to mention the USA problems. Conflict clarifies. The old army adage applies: Be Prepared. Would that there be some place to run and hide. Unfortunately not. As for the "elite" who think they are so special? Webb says: they are special. They are being saved for dessert. The Dubliner's famous song: The Rebel comes to mind.
Bill, I agree with the long term trend. It's hard for us mortals to sit still and wait for time to pass. Tom referenced a Charles Gave book back in March. Porter Stansberry put out a new book in May about the End of America. Both books discuss the same pattern and steps people should consider to avoid disaster. Both mention Harry Brown as the original author of the overall strategy. The bottom line for all of us is IT TAKES TIME for the big events to roll out. The hardest part for me is SITTING STILL and letting the events unfold. I hope at this point in life I don't make any more stupid mistakes.
Jim Marshall
The Stansberry book is very very good. For him, all the arguments people have about society, politics and economics (on here and elsewhere) are pointless because the one big problem that we don't see or want to acknowledge is that there is a silent depression where everyone is getting poorer: and that this and the coming currency reset is the main problem individuals and society have to solve.
Ian, that's part of the books thesis but the the key strategy for the investor is the Four Quadrant Framework for allocation of funds depending on the Inflationary or Deflationary direction of the economy. Much different from the normal buy low, sell high mindset.
I haven't got that far but just ran some numbers for measuring wages against inflation and gold as the book suggests. It's bad, very bad, abysmal...
Median Nominal Salary 2010: £27,100 2026: £41,500 +53%
Real salary HICP (Consumer Goods) 2010: £27,100 2026: £15,950 -41%
Real salary Gold (Monetary Metal) 2010: £27,100 2026: £2,850 -89%
Real salary Oil (Energy) 2010: £27,100 2026: £26,287 -3%
It’s going to snow. It’s going to snow. Say it long enough and the prediction will come true. When it does, the sage says “See I told you so.” Now Bill says dooms day is coming “if not this year, maybe next.” Problem is Bill super safety mode means your subscribers miss out on several growth and dividend histories that leaves them on the short end of the financial stick. Here’s a thought: What would hurt to make some investments that allow for enjoying the market gains but would not be the “first” ones to suffer when dooms day happens. Then help us recognize that it is time to bail on the market and go to the mattresses. Asking for a friend… .
Agree. Stops and trailing stops have worked nicely with volatile “Ai” stocks.
So a very good missive today for three reasons. First, the was humble. Second, the information is worthy of the read and lastly, and maybe most importantly, no mention of Trump. Bill I know that last one was most difficult for you, but your dear readers very much appreciate your effort.
Oh Tom, so nicely put!
But He did mention Trump when He said US government. Just not His name directly. That is My take. But if this makes You happy , then it is OK with Me.
Yes, it makes me, if not happy, then satisfied:)
Quick question regarding the Dow/Gold ratio... What if we get to 5, but we get there by Gold making a big move upward, and the Dow staying relatively the same? I'm not sure I would want to let go of my Metal (let alone mortgage the house) to get back into the market, which would still be massively over inflated IMHO.
I think the strategy relies on the idea that dollars are not a reliable measure, but gold is. If one can't accept that, (and I make no argument that you should), investing/reality goes from pretty simple to completely unknowable. Just my thoughts.
Good question. For me personally, if that were to happen, I would still probably put 20% of my precious metals into the market. Maybe more. We live in very interesting yet very confusing times.
There’s an old Chinese Curse: “May you live in interesting times” and they’re getting more interesting (and confusing) by the day.
It's the $million dollar question I have yet to see him address...
Re: “When will that happen?”, I am reminded of Monty Python’s infamous “one thin mint” skit, where the waiter (read Wall Street) cons the gluttonous diner (greedy investors) into having “just one thin mint” (the bull has longer to run ). The results are catastrophic. https://youtube.com/shorts/DCPvfOQ0mv8?si=4u8GchsPz8hBq74a
A worthwhile missive, wish they could all be like this.
Retail market participation has dramatically increased.
Retail investors hold $12 trillion in self-directed brokerage accounts, equivalent to roughly 10% of total U.S. corporate equity market value.
Individual investor participation in daily trading has risen to nearly 20% of average daily trading activity, up from low single digits before COVID.
There are significantly more retail traders than ever...
-
Does this affect the gold/Dow ratio?
“Problem is Bill super safety mode means your subscribers miss out on several growth and dividend histories that leaves them on the short end of the financial stick.”….this has certainly been my experience here following BPR.
Gotta laugh to keep from crying.
The point of super safety mode is capital preservation, not growth and I think Mr. Dyson has been very clear on that. My own portfolio follows the BPR portfolio fairly closely, particularly with respect to asset allocation. The mix of stocks I would say is a bit racier, that is a decision tailored to personal circumstance, but there is room to season to taste let's say.
Right. Avoiding “the Big Loss”, as a new retiree, was the appeal for me with BPR.
And the first BPR-stock recommendation from Dyson, shortly after I initially subscribed, was Costamare (CMRE). Remember that one? Well, Dyson shortly afterwards stopped us out for a loss. So much for that “avoid the Big Loss” thing.
And shortly after that, the market has ratcheted higher and higher, with BPR avoiding “the Big Gain.”
Question: With gold going down these past few months, who was selling? Was a country or two selling to buy oil? It certainly was not due to a plan in Congress to balance the budget! I heard that "Central Banks" have continued to buy, so again who is selling enough to knock the price down? Has someone sold that much to change the market, perhaps to buy Spacex?
What’s missing from this picture is bald, bold, blatant politics: What is Treasury and the Fed doing to support the current Republican-leaning regime against what seems like an increasingly demonic horde of Dems? The very short term is between now and the mid-terms. The next period is the final two years of Trump 2.0 unshackled except for wanting a worthy successor to solidify gains and burnish the “legacy.” We need some insight with that frame in mind as to what levers are being pulled.
Firstly, lets work on grammar:
Because the "H" in "historic" is pronounced, "a historic" is the standard and widely preferred form in modern English.
Secondly, Bill, spend some time exploring the dollar in relative terms to the other major currencies. You touched on it today. The dollar is rotting, no doubt. But what major currency is not infirmed with similar and worse afflictions? If you had to tell someone today, "dump the dollar," and they had to replace it with a currency, what would it be?
About Standard Process®:
The "Primary Trend". The trend is no more. According to David Webb, the "cake is baked", securities are owned by JP Morgan, and your "beneficail ownership", "entitlement", "contract" provides you, if at all, in the case of insolvency, which is in process, a "pro-rata" share of your "securities". The solution" ? Change the UCC code article 8 at the state level asap. Stop funding the insanity. Short of that, he says the hour is near. Have as many physical assets as possible. Establish relationships with your neighbors. Grow anything you can. TruNorth Public Policy is the organization at the state level trying to cahnge the UCC code article 8. Join now. Get involved. Speak up.The Sec General of Nato has made it clear to the Europeans: Be prepared, or more, to endure what the europeans had to endure in the first and second world wars. Not to mention the USA problems. Conflict clarifies. The old army adage applies: Be Prepared. Would that there be some place to run and hide. Unfortunately not. As for the "elite" who think they are so special? Webb says: they are special. They are being saved for dessert. The Dubliner's famous song: The Rebel comes to mind.
As Gomez use to say to Morticia, "I love it when you speak French"!
As Working Stiff says to Bill Bonner "I love it when you talk financial stuff"!