Need to stop "searching" for ways to make data fit your point. I agree oil supply is down and so are inventories. But showing a headline that says "US oil reserves sink to a 22-year low as Hormuz crisis deepens" and then later stating "crude oil inventories in the USA decreased by 8 million barrels with commercial stockpiles now 3% below the five-year average for this time of year" kind of sinks your headline! Stockpiles 3% below the five-year average for this time of year does not sound like a crisis to me. Most of the change in USA commercial stockpiles over the past 22 years relates to a "just-in-time" refinery supply chain structure in 2000 to 2008 then the Shale surge of 2009 to 2014 which unleashed massive amounts of domestic oil that outpaced pipeline infrastructure and so this oil was stored heavily in commercial storage hubs raising inventories well above 350 million barrels followed by global oversupply of oil from 2015 to 2021 which pushed commercial storage to its limit and went to a historic high of 540 million barrels when Covid hit in 2000 and oil demand collapsed. Followed by 2022 to 2026 where post pandemic export demand and domestic refinery runs pulled commercial storage back down to historical norms. So a 22-year low of US commercial oil reserves has nothing to do with the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz issue has hurt other countries, but it has not done much to US commercial oil reserves (the USA produces lots of oil - more than we need), so I would focus more on on the fact that USA commercial reserves are 3% below the five-year average and to that I say "should I worry about a 3% decline off a five-year average when we produce more oil than we consume?"
Thanks for trying to inject a little sanity into this forum. I've pretty much stopped commenting along with many others as Bonner has a TDS-addled brain that belongs in an insane asylum along with many of the commenters remaining on this page. Let Bonner write his column. You are wasting your time pushing back on him - just read most of the other comments on this page. It truly is bizarre. I no longer care what Bonner writes and only quickly scan his daily dump. He is insignificant. I subscribe for Dan and Tom.
Mr. Gallien, So true. He cherry-picks stats and many times doesn't provide context. It's not what he writes as much as what he leaves out. I like to add Bill's best friend Addison Wiggin to Dan and Tom. Mr. Wiggin tries to be objective when analyzing the major issues facing the U.S.
Joe Withrow is also wary if the devaluation trade, but believes as I do that that doesn't mean you go to cash and gold only and hide in the hills. Deflation is just another variable to account for in the evaluation of any investment. He also (IMO) gives better historical context than Bill does.
"In January of this year, a gallon of gas cost about $2.60. Today, it’s $4.30. That’s $1.70 more." If we produce so much more than we consume why are we paying so much more?
Because nations all over the world are now using oil and gas from the US, forcing us your internal prices as you compete with others for your production.
Who's fault is that? Had the US not been pushed into this foolish war by Israel none of this would have happened. Good for US Oil bad for the rest of the world and the US citizens.
Please give this forum one good reason for DJT to have allowed himself to be led by the nose by Netanyahu into this calamity. particularly after Midnight Hammer was declared a success in neutralising the nuclear threat
And for people living close to the financial edge (50% of us? 60%?) that $1.70 increase IS reality. Not to mention the impact beyond gasoline in overall inflation. My guess is that those most stretched find little comfort in the "only 3%" statistic.
Wonder why the comment of An Ol' LSO is hidden? Is it because he mentioned the destruction of Israel? Our great leader frequently mentions that he will wipe Iran off the map. Didn't Voltaire say something like - Show me who you can't criticize and I'll show you who runs the country.
There are currently laws in about 20 states that do not allow criticism of Israel. When you figure out who you cannot criticize then you know who's in charge.
The on-going contretemps in the Middle East can be traced to the centuries long vicious feud between Shiites and Sunnis and to the more recent post-WW II creation by the Allied powers of a homeland for the Jewish survivors of the massive murder of Jews by European Christians.
I'm not a student of this event. In any case, it's too late to rectify the Allied Powers hubris and the conduct of the transplanted Jews who regarded the indigenous residents in what became Israel as interlopers.
Except one country, maybe. Or maybe I just made an assumption. Bur I've noticed that the media and the government almost never criticize our "greatest ally". Compare any fotos or videos of Gaza with Kiev and ask yourself why Putin is the made guy but Netanyahu is our friend.
Maybe you’re too young but Obama,Biden criticized Israel all the time especially that Muslim loving Obama who actually personally bowed in subservience to Muslim leaders.
Oh and maybe you missed it but the Gazans attacked Israel and Israelis in the most despicable manner imaginable without warning and at a music festival.
Putin attacked Ukraine and with plenty of warning.One attacker is criticized justifiably
the other,Israel criticized for being attacked mostly by all the Jew haters.
What do you think of this: "We are going to have a focus on stopping candidates who are detractors of Israel or who want to put conditions on aid,” Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for AIPAC’s super PAC, the United Democracy Project, said in an interview. AIPAC is the same organization that JFK wanted to have listed as foreign agents. So if a politician criticizes aid to Israel for legitimate reasons, e.g., their debt/GDP ratio is half of ours or they need our aid yet they can afford a national health care system, AIPAC will target them.
One attacker is criticized justifiably? Maybe you missed the coup of 2014, after which Victoria "Cookies" Nuland selected the next Ukraine president and bragged about spending $5 billion of our tax dollars to bring "democracy" to Ukraine. The new government immediately initiated some anti-Russian laws and soon a civil war followed. The Minsk Accords were supposed to bring a peaceful settlement but Merkel and Hollande admitted that they fraudulently signed the accords to give Ukraine time to rebuild their military. During the civil war the Azov Battalion repeatedly bombed the Donbass region resulting in thousands of civilian casualties. Later Nuland admitted that the US had military bio labs in Ukraine.
Now, in regards to the attack on Israel from Gaza maybe you missed the fact that Israel has been mistreating the Palestinians since the state was established. You can easily find evidence of the settlers using violence to clear out the Palestinians. There are also numerous reports of IDF soldiers being told to stand down on 10/7 and the use of the Hannibal Directive to prevent hostage taking. Maybe you have seen that even Christians are mistreated in Israel. One Israel official even defended the custom of spitting on Christians.
Just for the “fun?” of it, I’ve been rereading Genesis - the Bible one - and vis-a-vis Southwest Asia, these bloody skirmishes today are more of the same. The only difference is the mighty interference of the declining empire formerly known as the United States of America. The swords may have changed, the damage remains. No matter how one parses the territory, this speaks poorly for humanity.
“Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.” Dylan Thomas
Putin is justifiably criticized for invading Ukraine? What would the US position be if Russia had biolabs in Mexico like this one: One lab in Kharkiv is specifically described as housing dangerous pathogens and being exposed to security risks and allegations from Russia about U.S.-linked biological weapons activity. Trump just bombed a girls school in Iran, 6,000 miles from the US, because he "believes" they were developing a nuke.
I'm sorry, but for the POTUS to say "He Loves Inflation" is a bone head comment to make. That statement alone is moronic under the current out of control debt conditions and he loses my respect as my President and BTW, I voted for DJT.
Yep, look at the facts Jack. You and I pay for the ideals of untried, well not untried , but historical facts that history teaches but Our masters know not of .
Biden drained our SPR to support his Party's mid-term election goals in 2022. This, to be able to claim, disingenuously, that his administration had "increased production" of FF. What followed was the highest inflation on modern record.
However, we were all asked at that time to try to understand that peak gasoline prices at the pump ($4.05/gallon) was the price we needed to pay in order to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels and launch the great age of alternative energy from solar & wind. No joke, man... and nobody that supported that administrations goals gave a flying fig about "the working man"... Not before, not during and certainly not after it all failed spectacularly.
But now it's different; the midterms loom once again and the nemesis of the Left, Trump, needs to be targeted once again. So up becomes down and down, up, as before. Hypocrisy becomes "hip" and patriotism to be rendered, once again, as hopelessly passe' if one is to care about "the planet". Memory banks need to be purged too. Scrubbed clean of the multiple failures of both vision and veracity of those Obama-Biden years when crooked DC lawyers ruled the roost.
Well, have at it. As Lincoln opined "you can't fool all of the people, all of the time". This Iran conflict will resolve in due time and then pass into history as one of the greatest geopolitical resets ever achieved and one that will benefit both the immediate ME region and the world at large.
Iran has dug its own grave with its brutality to its own people, their neighbors and threats to a far more powerful nation and, as is usually the case, it took only one person with vision and resolve to rally the righteous and render the final blow. Just remember who to thank and who not to thank, in 2028.
"The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 433.7 million barrels, according to government data, which is now 3% below the five-year average for this time of year."
3% below average??? OH NO!!!! Run for the Hills!!!!
What we need is less bomb throwing from the commenters, and more hard analysis from Bill/Dan/Tom. For instance, what would a recession/depression do to gold price? I've heard that it would start off as deflationary price pressure on ALL things and commodities. I guess what I'm fishing for is: am I making a mistake buying more gold/silver at the high price it's at now, or wait a bit to see what the economy/stock market does? Or am I an idiot for not buying more now, and having it as a hedge and seeing it skyrocket in bad financial times, and I could never afford it then? What haunts me is the price of gold in the early 70's compared to the nearly $850/oz. price reached in 1980. I'm sure people bought it at that peak, and then kicked themselves when it dropped back under $300/oz. a couple of years later. I know it's not an easy question, but would like to hear some "if - then" analysis.
A 22 year record low in US oil stockpiles doesn't mean much. President Biden sold about 1/2 of the reserves off, 4 years ago to force the price lower and try and keep his record inflation rates down before the mid term elections. Oil production and exports under Trump have both been much higher.
Even Australia has been getting oil from Texas via the Panama Canal, rather than from the middle east.
Need to stop "searching" for ways to make data fit your point. I agree oil supply is down and so are inventories. But showing a headline that says "US oil reserves sink to a 22-year low as Hormuz crisis deepens" and then later stating "crude oil inventories in the USA decreased by 8 million barrels with commercial stockpiles now 3% below the five-year average for this time of year" kind of sinks your headline! Stockpiles 3% below the five-year average for this time of year does not sound like a crisis to me. Most of the change in USA commercial stockpiles over the past 22 years relates to a "just-in-time" refinery supply chain structure in 2000 to 2008 then the Shale surge of 2009 to 2014 which unleashed massive amounts of domestic oil that outpaced pipeline infrastructure and so this oil was stored heavily in commercial storage hubs raising inventories well above 350 million barrels followed by global oversupply of oil from 2015 to 2021 which pushed commercial storage to its limit and went to a historic high of 540 million barrels when Covid hit in 2000 and oil demand collapsed. Followed by 2022 to 2026 where post pandemic export demand and domestic refinery runs pulled commercial storage back down to historical norms. So a 22-year low of US commercial oil reserves has nothing to do with the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz issue has hurt other countries, but it has not done much to US commercial oil reserves (the USA produces lots of oil - more than we need), so I would focus more on on the fact that USA commercial reserves are 3% below the five-year average and to that I say "should I worry about a 3% decline off a five-year average when we produce more oil than we consume?"
Thanks for trying to inject a little sanity into this forum. I've pretty much stopped commenting along with many others as Bonner has a TDS-addled brain that belongs in an insane asylum along with many of the commenters remaining on this page. Let Bonner write his column. You are wasting your time pushing back on him - just read most of the other comments on this page. It truly is bizarre. I no longer care what Bonner writes and only quickly scan his daily dump. He is insignificant. I subscribe for Dan and Tom.
Mr. Gallien, So true. He cherry-picks stats and many times doesn't provide context. It's not what he writes as much as what he leaves out. I like to add Bill's best friend Addison Wiggin to Dan and Tom. Mr. Wiggin tries to be objective when analyzing the major issues facing the U.S.
Joe Withrow is also wary if the devaluation trade, but believes as I do that that doesn't mean you go to cash and gold only and hide in the hills. Deflation is just another variable to account for in the evaluation of any investment. He also (IMO) gives better historical context than Bill does.
Even Tom is becoming a perma-bear chicken little. I stay for Dan. He s the only one of them that is data-focused and rational.
"In January of this year, a gallon of gas cost about $2.60. Today, it’s $4.30. That’s $1.70 more." If we produce so much more than we consume why are we paying so much more?
Because nations all over the world are now using oil and gas from the US, forcing us your internal prices as you compete with others for your production.
Who's fault is that? Had the US not been pushed into this foolish war by Israel none of this would have happened. Good for US Oil bad for the rest of the world and the US citizens.
Please give this forum one good reason for DJT to have allowed himself to be led by the nose by Netanyahu into this calamity. particularly after Midnight Hammer was declared a success in neutralising the nuclear threat
And for people living close to the financial edge (50% of us? 60%?) that $1.70 increase IS reality. Not to mention the impact beyond gasoline in overall inflation. My guess is that those most stretched find little comfort in the "only 3%" statistic.
The Fischer analysis is a useful complement to the Bonner analysis, because it suggests other factors than oil reserves need to be taken into account
https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/are-world-oil-reserves-dangerously-low
Unlike all previous oil shocks, this time what we’re paying for oil and gas is nearly all staying here in America.
Wonder why the comment of An Ol' LSO is hidden? Is it because he mentioned the destruction of Israel? Our great leader frequently mentions that he will wipe Iran off the map. Didn't Voltaire say something like - Show me who you can't criticize and I'll show you who runs the country.
Who can’t we criticize? Seems like almost everyone is fair game these days.
Israel.
Nailed it!
😳
There are currently laws in about 20 states that do not allow criticism of Israel. When you figure out who you cannot criticize then you know who's in charge.
There' just so much fodder...
The on-going contretemps in the Middle East can be traced to the centuries long vicious feud between Shiites and Sunnis and to the more recent post-WW II creation by the Allied powers of a homeland for the Jewish survivors of the massive murder of Jews by European Christians.
I'm not a student of this event. In any case, it's too late to rectify the Allied Powers hubris and the conduct of the transplanted Jews who regarded the indigenous residents in what became Israel as interlopers.
"...the massive murder of Jews by European Christians."
You've got that completely backwards.
Except one country, maybe. Or maybe I just made an assumption. Bur I've noticed that the media and the government almost never criticize our "greatest ally". Compare any fotos or videos of Gaza with Kiev and ask yourself why Putin is the made guy but Netanyahu is our friend.
You know I'm pretty sure you're not allowed to ask that question.😂
Maybe you’re too young but Obama,Biden criticized Israel all the time especially that Muslim loving Obama who actually personally bowed in subservience to Muslim leaders.
Oh and maybe you missed it but the Gazans attacked Israel and Israelis in the most despicable manner imaginable without warning and at a music festival.
Putin attacked Ukraine and with plenty of warning.One attacker is criticized justifiably
the other,Israel criticized for being attacked mostly by all the Jew haters.
Understando Cartero?
What do you think of this: "We are going to have a focus on stopping candidates who are detractors of Israel or who want to put conditions on aid,” Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for AIPAC’s super PAC, the United Democracy Project, said in an interview. AIPAC is the same organization that JFK wanted to have listed as foreign agents. So if a politician criticizes aid to Israel for legitimate reasons, e.g., their debt/GDP ratio is half of ours or they need our aid yet they can afford a national health care system, AIPAC will target them.
One attacker is criticized justifiably? Maybe you missed the coup of 2014, after which Victoria "Cookies" Nuland selected the next Ukraine president and bragged about spending $5 billion of our tax dollars to bring "democracy" to Ukraine. The new government immediately initiated some anti-Russian laws and soon a civil war followed. The Minsk Accords were supposed to bring a peaceful settlement but Merkel and Hollande admitted that they fraudulently signed the accords to give Ukraine time to rebuild their military. During the civil war the Azov Battalion repeatedly bombed the Donbass region resulting in thousands of civilian casualties. Later Nuland admitted that the US had military bio labs in Ukraine.
Now, in regards to the attack on Israel from Gaza maybe you missed the fact that Israel has been mistreating the Palestinians since the state was established. You can easily find evidence of the settlers using violence to clear out the Palestinians. There are also numerous reports of IDF soldiers being told to stand down on 10/7 and the use of the Hannibal Directive to prevent hostage taking. Maybe you have seen that even Christians are mistreated in Israel. One Israel official even defended the custom of spitting on Christians.
Just for the “fun?” of it, I’ve been rereading Genesis - the Bible one - and vis-a-vis Southwest Asia, these bloody skirmishes today are more of the same. The only difference is the mighty interference of the declining empire formerly known as the United States of America. The swords may have changed, the damage remains. No matter how one parses the territory, this speaks poorly for humanity.
“Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.” Dylan Thomas
Putin is justifiably criticized for invading Ukraine? What would the US position be if Russia had biolabs in Mexico like this one: One lab in Kharkiv is specifically described as housing dangerous pathogens and being exposed to security risks and allegations from Russia about U.S.-linked biological weapons activity. Trump just bombed a girls school in Iran, 6,000 miles from the US, because he "believes" they were developing a nuke.
I'm sorry, but for the POTUS to say "He Loves Inflation" is a bone head comment to make. That statement alone is moronic under the current out of control debt conditions and he loses my respect as my President and BTW, I voted for DJT.
We all make mistakes. Thankfully, I did not make that one.
Yep, look at the facts Jack. You and I pay for the ideals of untried, well not untried , but historical facts that history teaches but Our masters know not of .
Biden drained our SPR to support his Party's mid-term election goals in 2022. This, to be able to claim, disingenuously, that his administration had "increased production" of FF. What followed was the highest inflation on modern record.
However, we were all asked at that time to try to understand that peak gasoline prices at the pump ($4.05/gallon) was the price we needed to pay in order to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels and launch the great age of alternative energy from solar & wind. No joke, man... and nobody that supported that administrations goals gave a flying fig about "the working man"... Not before, not during and certainly not after it all failed spectacularly.
But now it's different; the midterms loom once again and the nemesis of the Left, Trump, needs to be targeted once again. So up becomes down and down, up, as before. Hypocrisy becomes "hip" and patriotism to be rendered, once again, as hopelessly passe' if one is to care about "the planet". Memory banks need to be purged too. Scrubbed clean of the multiple failures of both vision and veracity of those Obama-Biden years when crooked DC lawyers ruled the roost.
Well, have at it. As Lincoln opined "you can't fool all of the people, all of the time". This Iran conflict will resolve in due time and then pass into history as one of the greatest geopolitical resets ever achieved and one that will benefit both the immediate ME region and the world at large.
Iran has dug its own grave with its brutality to its own people, their neighbors and threats to a far more powerful nation and, as is usually the case, it took only one person with vision and resolve to rally the righteous and render the final blow. Just remember who to thank and who not to thank, in 2028.
"The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 433.7 million barrels, according to government data, which is now 3% below the five-year average for this time of year."
3% below average??? OH NO!!!! Run for the Hills!!!!
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-learning-use-less-oil-and-thats-bigger-deal-it-sounds
The Fisher analysis is a useful complement to the Bonner analysis, because it suggests other factors than oil reserves need to be taken into account
https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/are-world-oil-reserves-dangerously-low
What we need is less bomb throwing from the commenters, and more hard analysis from Bill/Dan/Tom. For instance, what would a recession/depression do to gold price? I've heard that it would start off as deflationary price pressure on ALL things and commodities. I guess what I'm fishing for is: am I making a mistake buying more gold/silver at the high price it's at now, or wait a bit to see what the economy/stock market does? Or am I an idiot for not buying more now, and having it as a hedge and seeing it skyrocket in bad financial times, and I could never afford it then? What haunts me is the price of gold in the early 70's compared to the nearly $850/oz. price reached in 1980. I'm sure people bought it at that peak, and then kicked themselves when it dropped back under $300/oz. a couple of years later. I know it's not an easy question, but would like to hear some "if - then" analysis.
A 22 year record low in US oil stockpiles doesn't mean much. President Biden sold about 1/2 of the reserves off, 4 years ago to force the price lower and try and keep his record inflation rates down before the mid term elections. Oil production and exports under Trump have both been much higher.
Even Australia has been getting oil from Texas via the Panama Canal, rather than from the middle east.