Have Gun...Will Travel

Now that the city is almost unlivable, an opportunity presents itself. The leveraged real estate speculator can’t help himself. He wants to create the Middle East Riviera.

Richard Boone, star of the CBS TV Show Paladin

Thursday, February 6^th, 2025

Bill Bonner, writing from Baltimore, Maryland

It was only a matter of hours after the ‘trade war’ had become a phony war, and the press irrupted again. Here was yet another way to make the world hate Americans. ABC News reports:

As President Donald Trump's second administration continued its swift recasting of the federal government and American foreign policy, the president and his top diplomat issued a stunning proposal, saying the U.S. would "take over" the Gaza Strip, "level the site" and rebuild it.

America’s last attempt to help Gaza was its ‘floating pier’ in May of last year. Built by the army, it cost $320 million and broke apart 12 days after being put in service. But taking over Gaza may be a floating pier too far. Even for Republicans. Reuters:

‘I thought we voted for America first' - Trump Gaza plan divides his party

Skeptical lawmakers said they still favored the two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians that has long been a foundation of U.S. diplomacy. Some also rejected the idea of spending U.S. taxpayer dollars or sending in U.S. troops to a region that has been devastated by more than a year of war.

"I thought we voted for America first," Republican Senator Rand Paul said on X.com. "We have no business contemplating yet another occupation to doom our treasure and spill our soldiers’ blood."

Poor Senator Paul. America First? That was on yesterday’s menu. Today’s a new day with a new way to alienate the US from the rest of the world.

If Mr. Trump were in need of a development project… a chance to relive his glory days in Atlantic City… he need not go all the way over to the Middle East. A bombed-out city? A death trap? Where the leading cause of death for young people is homicide? Just get in the Presidential limousine and take the 45-minute drive up to West Baltimore.

Of course, there is no real comparison between Baltimore and Gaza. Here, the poorest parts of the city were collateral damage in the feds’ wars against poverty, racism and drugs.

Gaza took destruction to a whole new level, where US bombs were used intentionally to flatten the city and kill thousands of children as well as adults. And now that the city is almost unlivable, an opportunity presents itself. The leveraged real estate speculator can’t help himself. He wants to create the Middle East Riviera.

Prissy foreigners don’t like the plan. The Financial Times:

US allies across Europe and the Middle East have condemned Donald Trump’s plans for Washington to “take over” Gaza and any attempt to expel Palestinians from the devastated territory. Countries throughout the region and beyond denounced the proposals within hours of the US president’s shock Tuesday evening announcement that Washington should assume control of Gaza and that its 2.2mn-strong Palestinian population should be resettled.

But what do you expect from Europeans? They lack the entrepreneurial vision of Americans… the toughness of real war fighters… and the professional skills of US federal employees.

Let’s see… put the new project in the hands of the US Army? The Post Office? Or how about Amtrak? Despite having a monopoly on the busiest train corridor in the US… a straight shot from Washington to Boston… Amtrak has lost money every year since its founding 54 years ago.

And there’s USAID… now said to be looking for work. Have gun. Will travel.

Wait a minute… who better than Trump himself? He learned the ropes in Atlantic City… surely, he could parley that experience into another big win. Benzinga:

By the early 1990s, the financial situation of Trump’s casino empire had become critical. Multiple bankruptcy filings ensued: the Trump Taj Mahal in 1991, followed by Trump Plaza and Trump Castle in 1992 and later Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts Inc. in 2004. These filings were a clear indication of the dire state of his casino ventures.

In 2009, Trump resigned as chairman of Trump Entertainment Resorts, just before the company filed for bankruptcy protection again. This move was in line with his past strategies, distancing himself from the financial failures while maintaining his brand and wealth.

According to the UN, it will cost $80 billion to rebuild Gaza. It will be grim work, too, uncovering the bodies of children under the rubble. In addition to the stain already on its soul from enabling the widespread destruction and murder, the US would have to lead the ethnic cleansing necessary to rid the area of the surviving Palestinians.

And yes, it is a strange thing for a nation with $36 trillion in debt and broken down cities of its own to take on. “A disaster for the US,” says Ambassador Chas Freeman, not realizing that that is the point.

What other way is there to make sense of it? The US needs to be taken down a peg; Trump is the man for the job.

But the condo sales are bound to be good. After all, who wouldn’t want to live in Gaza?

Regards,

Bill Bonner

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Research Note, by Dan Denning

First, a public service announcement that Bonner Private Research is not supported by any subscriptions purchased by US government agencies nor have we received any funding, directly or indirectly, from the US Agency for International Development (USAID). You can never be too sure these days, who is paying who to say what. We just wanted to clear that up.

Now to markets. Priced in US dollars, the price of an ounce of gold backed off its Wednesday high of $2,882/ounce in Thursday trading. That broke a five-day winning streak. To get beyond the trade war story and the ‘run’ on gold in London’s vaults, I brought up a three-year chart of Newmont Mining (NEM) while on the train up to New York last night.

The stock, like the gold price itself, has started a year on the run (some, but not ALL gold companies, should be generating generous amounts of free cash flow at these prices, especially with energy prices comparatively low). The blue line is Newmont’s 100-day moving average. The red-line is the 200-day moving average. The line at the top of the chart is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). What do you see?

An RSI over 70 suggests Newmont is over-bought at this price. And the short-term MA crossing below the long-term MA should be (in very basic terms) bearish. Short story: after a great run to start the year, gold should consolidate and correct. Will it?

Payroll numbers out tomorrow! That may give some direction to interest rate markets, the dollar, and gold. And in the meantime, in the second Trump presidency, we no longer have a 24 hour news cycle. It’s more like four hours. Anything goes.

Paid readers will hear more tomorrow. Also, later today I’m sitting down with Bill Bonner here in Baltimore for our first Private Briefing of the year. If you have a question you’d like me to put to Bill, leave it the comments below. I’ll do my best to get to as many of them as I can.