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Egypt Solomon's avatar

It’s beautiful how every rich Paraguayan investor describes exploitation it like they’re narrating a children’s nature documentary.

“We found lush, low-cost pasture…”

Yeah, funny how “low-cost pasture” always means somebody else is living in a corrugated soup can twenty feet away burning garbage beside a highway pothole large enough to swallow a baptist choir.

The whole thing reads like a Hallmark card written by a hedge fund vampire.

Ah yes, the Country of Paraguay. Former refuge of fugitives and meat smugglers. But now? The Nazis are dead! Time to buy cattle!

That’s civilization, folks. That’s the arc of human progress. We waited for the war criminals to die so we could monetize the grass, and send in the undercover FBI folks.

Beautiful, and I love how Paraguayans describe poverty like tourists visiting a zoo. “Entire families on motorbikes…”

No kidding. Because when you’ve got three dollars and a dream, the motorcycle becomes a minivan, a school bus, and a hearse all at once., Then suddenly they reach Filadelfia, the magical Mennonite Totonian Disneyland. Respectable houses, nice tractors, organized blond people speaking German. OH GOOD, the white people arrived. Civilization detected.

The hotel had a bar with selections. Humanity saved itself. You know what really kills me? The moral simplicity of cattle investing. “Buy calves at 200 kilos…feed them…vaccinate them…”

Right. That’s capitalism at its purest:

Turn grass into beef and suffering into quarterly returns.

And these guys always say the same thing: “We’re not looking for huge profits.” That’s because rich people discovered if you whisper greed softly enough it sounds like wisdom. “We just want modest returns…” Yeah. And dictators just want orderly elections.

The Country of Paraguay sounds like the kind of place where every business deal begins with: “So…how enforceable are the laws here, theoretically?” You got these investors acting like rugged pioneers because they drove through mud once.

Buddy, you stayed in the nicest hotel within 500 miles and drank imported whiskey while discussing calf-weight ratios like Bond villains at a livestock TED Talk. Meanwhile the gauchos are out there wrestling mutant mosquito-cows bred from Zebu, Brahmin, Nelore, Brangus, and apparently leftover Jurassic Park DNA. The cattle sound like they escaped from a military experiment.

“These animals are more rustic.”

Rustic? That’s how Airbnb describes a cabin without plumbing. Those cows sound bulletproof.

And can we talk about the economic thesis here?

“The dollar may fall. Europeans still eat beef.”

That’s the strategy?

That’s not macroeconomics. That’s a drunk uncle at a casino buffet. Europeans also drink wine and invade countries every few centuries. Are we buying tanks next? And the Mennonite cooperative? Fantastic. Terrifyingly efficient religious agricultural syndicates always calm me down.

“They own the banks, insurance companies, hotels…”

Oh good. So the entire economy is run by a blond hive mind speaking German in the middle of the Paraguay dust bowl. Historically that’s never made anybody nervous. The whole vibe of this place is: “Welcome to paradise. Please ignore the malaria and the morally ambiguous logistics network.”

And I love the optimism.

“It’s hot. Flat. Isolated. We’d never live here ourselves… but maybe the cattle will enjoy it.”

That’s every investment pitch in human history. “Would you want to be trapped here? No? Excellent. Tremendous upside.

All in all, the Country of Paraguay sounds nice. Any country where a seven-year-old drives the family motorcycle while the mother checks her phone… that’s freedom. That kid’s already more qualified than most Paraguayan senators.

And I like the cattle business. Seems honest.

You buy a cow.

You feed the cow.

The cow gains weight.

Then eventually somebody eats the cow.

Simple. Unlike crypto.

You ever notice cows never try to explain blockchain to you?

A cow just stands there.

Judging you quietly.

I respect that. And these investors keep saying: “We just want predictable weight gain.” That’s also what happens to tourists at the hotel buffet. They’re basically fattening themselves alongside the livestock.

Here’s the funniest part?

The investors say:

“The old war criminals, if there ever were any, have died.” That’s such a careful sentence.

“If there ever were any…” That’s how you describe ghosts in a haunted motel. Some say Room 12 contains the spirit of Klaus von Schnitzel. Hard to say. And then they meet the veterinarian like it’s the climax of an adventure movie. This here is Raul. He vaccinates cows.

Incredible.

Ten-hour drive through mud to meet Cow Doctor Indiana Jones.

Honestly, I hope the cattle succeed.

Not because of the profits.

I just think somewhere out there there’s a calf named Señor Beefington trying to make something of himself. And I admire that.

Tlasso's avatar

Your funny and I don’t know whether you are joking or a communist environmentalist wanting to save the pristine dust/mud bowl there. You’d prefer that there were no Mennonites? Lost your point. Bill goes where you and I don’t even think to look for an investment which employs gauchos and others and you ridicule him? I liked the adventure and wished I had his kind of $ to do something like that. BUT I did enjoy your entertaining writing.😁

Harold Shaeffer's avatar

Egypt, have you ever been to Paraguay, owned a cattle ranch, or ever lived, worked or invested in Latin America? Just curious!

I have not been to Paraguay, but my wife, small son and I lived in Cali Colombia, 1963-1966. The conditions Bill described in Paraguay were very similar to some of the rural areas in Colombia 60 years ago. Cali was a wonderful city, but a few years after we left for Mexico, it became the "drug capital of Colombia". I found Bill's comments honest and informative.

Egypt Solomon's avatar

Visiting Colombia in the sixties reminds me of spending a semester abroad at a pottery camp before Woodstock. So Harold, you lived in Cali from 1963 to 1966, that’s awesome, sounds wholesome, but then years later the place became the drug capital of Colombia. That’s always unsettling. Nobody wants their old neighborhood rebranded by cocaine. Imagine visiting your childhood home and the tour guide says, “Over here is where international cartel finance was modernized.” I’ve never been to either place personally, but if I ever do, I’ll take my grandson so I can say to him, “Look Sonny… one day all this geopolitical instability could be yours.” 🤩

Harold Shaeffer's avatar

I wasn’t just visiting Colombia, I was the Treasurer of a New York stock exchange Colombian subsidiary located in Cali.

HK's avatar

Yep, that’s Bill, only thing he did not mentioned while driving through the swamp is Trump!

Mackinac's avatar

Yes it was a really nice change.

working stiff's avatar

well...come on know, reading Billy this long isn't that implied? Of course its Trumps fault. From the "lack of Nazis, (I mean if there ever were any) to the damn rain storm mucking up the drive the next day - it was DJT!

PS: He is working on the next attack after discussions with Mark Carney and Barack Insane Obama

Tlasso's avatar

You need to patten that ….”Barack insane Obama “🤣

Jim McCollum's avatar

Hey Egy, now that you have completed your standup routine, tell us what you have done for Paraguay recently.

Egypt Solomon's avatar

Well Jim…I don’t like to brag, but I believe I personally increased Paraguay’s visibility by at least four percent.

Before this missive, most Americans thought Paraguay was either a skin condition or one of the lesser dinosaurs, but I’ll tell ya, Paraguay’s got a rough reputation.

Every article starts the same way:

“Now listen, before you panic, the war criminals are mostly dead.”

That’s not usually how tourism works Jim. They say, “Why Paraguay?” Well apparently because cows enjoy suffering in extreme heat while investors enjoy discussing cows in air conditioning. That’s really the whole global economy if you think about it.

I actually feel bad for Paraguay.

Every foreign businessman shows up saying: “Good news! We discovered your land is cheap because nobody wanted it.”

That’s not a compliment.

That’s how rats describe an abandoned sewage tunnel.

And these fellows always say they only want modest returns. Nobody ever says: “I came to Paraguay because greed consumed my soul and I wanted to become a cattle lich.”

Which, by the way, is the most honest sentence ever spoken.

I kept thinking about that seven-year-old driving the motorcycle. That kid’s probably 42 now. Runs the central bank.

Jim McCollum's avatar

Thanks for the reply. A couple of thoughts. I'm not familiar with any war crimes visited upon Paraguay by the war criminals you and Bill are talking about. I'm sure President Stroessner handled them with dispatch if any of them got out of line. (The best game warden is sometimes the reformed poacher.) Now that both the Prez and the war criminals are out of the picture, it seems as if Paraguay is taking a deep breath and looking to improve its reputation and status. I wish them well.

Regarding your concern for the 7 year-old, either you haven't travelled a lot in the "lesser developed" parts of the world or you grew up in the post-1950s U.S. Children in many places actually do work and are given responsibility for things that affluent observers in rich countries find abhorrent. That was once true in America. In 1968, VietNamese 7 year olds, while dodging an occasional bomb or stray bullet, were either riding a water buffalo in his grandfather's rice paddy or hawking bottles of soda pop to GI's for a dollar a bottle. Now, most Viet children are in school and their families are helping grow their economy the fastest in the world. May we all see a better day.

And by the way, I enjoy your spirited commentary. It spices up the conversation.

Egypt Solomon's avatar

Great follow up comment Jim, anybody who refers to a dictator as “the Prez” makes authoritarianism sound like a guy managing a bowling alley. Handling them with dispatch is also a wonderfully calm way of describing whatever horrifying thing probably happened next. You’re right about children in poorer countries often carrying enormous responsibility, though I still maintain if you see a seven-year-old steering a motorcycle while his mother scrolls her phone, your first instinct probably shouldn’t be, “Now there’s an emerging market.” And I appreciated the optimism about Vietnam and Paraguay improving over time. People really do adapt. One generation dodges bullets in rice paddies, the next generation manufactures smartphones and argues online about cattle investments. That’s progress, I suppose. Though I gotta say, the phrase “the best game warden is sometimes the reformed poacher” sounds less like political analysis and more like the tagline to a deeply unsettling Clint Eastwood movie. 😊

Harold Shaeffer's avatar

"I actually feel bad for Paraguay". Egypt that is "Bull shit" and you know it.

Frank Westmoreland's avatar

Mr. Solomon, I don't think you can blame Bill for the poverty in the city of Asuncion. He just arrived. The only questions I had after reading Bill's essay were: Are the gauchos being fairly compensated? They appear to be--skilled--labor so I would assume no labor issues; no exploitation. And are there local problem people like those around and in Bill's properties in Argentina? Again, the answer seems to be "no."

I found the back and worth between you and others rather entertaining, so knowing little about Paraguay, I looked up a summary on the internet, and its govt. seems to have allowed more personal freedom per a new constitution in 1992. The country does have lots of airborne disease problems, so this is probably why the seventy-something Bill and his wife wisely want to invest there rather than live there. And it also appears that Paraguay does not have good health care in rural areas (maybe in the Mennonite area). You have to travel to Asuncion for more than basic care or if serious, fly to Buenos Aires. But the country does seem to be politically stable. Little to no strife. (Of course, I only read a summary.) I wonder: Are Bill, his daughter Mariah, and her husband Adrien planning to sell their Argentinian properties and Mariah and Adrien move there to manage a new business? I guess we will see if Mariah could fly to Buenos Aires for her artistic efforts. Asuncion doesn't appear to remotely stack up to Salta or Buenos Aires in this area.

Egypt Solomon's avatar

Yeah Frank, I don’t think Bill personally caused all the poverty either. Though I do admire the confidence of tourists. Guy lands Tuesday afternoon and by Wednesday people are saying, “well let’s not pin the entire collapse of infrastructure on Bill just yet.”

I enjoyed the phrase “they appear to be skilled labor.” That’s comforting, you don’t want amateur gauchos. You ever see an unskilled gaucho? The whole cattle operation falls apart pretty quick.

A professional gaucho can look at a cow from forty yards away and say “That animal’s unhappy.”

As for me, I can’t even tell when my doctor’s unhappy.

And Bill says Paraguay has more personal freedom now, which is nice, always encouraging when a nation upgrades from possibly harboring fugitives to moderately pleasant investment climate, that’s progress.

I also like how the healthcare is limited, so Bill wisely prefers investing there rather than living there. That’s the kind of endorsement you don’t put on tourism posters. (Visit beautiful Paraguay, if your organs cooperate.)

I think you’re on point about what everybody does after reading about foreign cattle investments, you immediately starts planning your daughter’s art career.

Honestly Frank, the whole thing sounds peaceful. Hot, muddy, medically questionable, but peaceful, and nowadays if you find a place where nobody’s actively throwing grenades at each other, investors call that an “emerging opportunity.”

The cows seem happy enough though, that’s more than you can say for most hedge fund managers.

😀

John Korb's avatar

Very well written comment. I can feel you are energized by all this. I just don't quite

know what your point is.

Andre Louw's avatar

Dear Mr/Ms E Solomon, I have read and reread your eloquent diatribe in response to BB's fairly innocuous piece investigating an investment opportunity in Paraguay. I was hoping to understand what it is that has raised your ire to such a degree.

Do I detect a hint of envy that BB has got off his comfortable backside to have a firsthand look at a possible investment opportunity? Or do I detect a little virtue signalling that it would be beneath your sensibilities to invest in an island of opportunity made such by the endeavours of the Mennonite community surrounded by a sea of poverty (burning rubbish, potholes and 7 year old motorcyclist) not to mention the welfare of the cattle subjected to the harsh climate.

I must however, congratulate you on a passionate display of words.

Egypt Solomon's avatar

Well, first off Andre, I admire anybody who uses the phrase “eloquent diatribe.” That’s the kind of insult you receive right before being challenged to a duel by a nineteenth-century lighthouse owner.

And I don’t think there’s envy involved exactly. I think sometimes people just react strangely when an investment article casually includes poverty, burning trash, heatstroke cattle, German-speaking farming empires, and a child operating a motorcycle like he’s escaping the fall of Saigon or performing Evil Knievel’s last stunt, when he rode his motorcycle through Ethiopia with a sandwich on his back.

Some folks read that and think, “Promising agricultural upside.” Other folks think, this sounds like the opening narration to a Werner Herzog documentary. And I also enjoyed the phrase “comfortable backside. That’s how polite people say fat. Which I appreciate. Sounds much classier. My doctor never says that. He says things like, “Egypt, your organs are negotiating surrender.”

Paul Murray's avatar

"we might be able to eek out a modest living" The Great White Father is at it again. Best always. PM

Harold Shaeffer's avatar

The "Great White Father" is going more for the economy of Paraguay than anybody, including me, reading these comments.

Ken's avatar

Hopefully the two Argentinians do more than spend 2 hours a month looking at the herd.

Harold Shaeffer's avatar

So how many hours would you stand and stare at the herd?

Tlasso's avatar

Not sure what else they could do. It’s more than BB will do. He might never return there.

Xavier Narutowicz's avatar

It is the Milei miracle. International investing creates eternal good.

If I were young, I would go to the Chaco or Baca Muerto.

altschule's avatar

Bonner it's strange to hear that you're investing time & money into what was once the greatest rain forest and swampland on earth now being used for fattening beef .. yes humans can defy nature and continue to do so each day in new and inventive ways but fattening-growing cows so that some folks in Europe can eat cheap meat is stupid thinking by someone who should know better by now .. go to Poland or anywhere on the Slovak-Chec plains or even Ukraine so much land to raise beef but of course you'd have to find a tribe of Mennonites that would do the Hard Yakka of cleaning the place up to make it fit for production of livestock/crops for human consumption.. yes cheap or industrious labor that delivers results is hard to find even in Argentina eh .. just ask Joel or your daughter .. life in Mie-li land must not be all that attractive anymore eh? but Paraguay has always been the land of opportunity so why not give that a try .. it'll be fun to watch what mother earth has in store for you and the humans who continue to think in such short term profits rather than long term survival .. maybe time for a space holiday with Bezos or Branson so you can get up high enough to see where and what you're actually dependent on .. and guess what you don't own any of it ! not even your own shit can you take with you ..

Angry Icebergs's avatar

...it's always a mistake to base "investments" on macro guesses.

But it's better to "bet" with the Wall St trend on macro guesses...

Paul Murray's avatar

The "macro" guess at the craps table is 7, and it is still a 6-1 play. And I still make the guess, but no matter how many people pile in with me, or I with them, we can't influence the outcome. That's not the case with your example of the Wall Street action you cite. If enough people guess together, it becomes a self-fulfilling arrangement, at least for a while, due to the sheer mass of the wager, I mean, guess. Best always. PM

Angry Icebergs's avatar

...very true, the more that buy the same equity, the more success.

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However, I refer to Wall St's "trend".

Is there any doubt there will be more rocket launches?

Is there a question we need more power?

Not if, but when will there be more autonomous trucks than human truck drivers?

How many more Ai chips will be needed until something takes it's place?

Which will be better, conventional, ocean or space data centers?

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Wall St allows us to bet on everything under the sun...

The trends are very distinct; the only unknowns are which stock and how long...