Down to Kosovo

All empires are equal... but some are more equal than others

(Source: Getty Images)

Bill Bonner, reckoning today from Paris, France...

Ooh, I wanna take you down to Kosovo
We’ll kick some butt, then we’ll take it slow
That’s where we want to go, way down to Kosovo

~ Parody of ‘Kokomo’ by the Beach Boys

Stop the clocks…Brooks Robinson has died.

Yesterday was a day of mourning in Baltimore. Black crepe hung from mansions in Mount Vernon square. Keening in Dundalk. A raucous wake down in Fells Point bars. MLBnews: 

Brooks Robinson, legendary O's third baseman, dies at 86

Beloved Hall of Famer was one of the greatest defenders in baseball history, winning 16 Gold Gloves

We remember the late ‘50s. An aged aunt would watch the O’s on TV while listening to the play-by-play commentary on the radio.  

“The radio gives you better coverage,” she explained.

And whenever the Os were losing, she counted on the third baseman.

“Brooks is my man,” she’d say. Often, or so it seemed to us, Brooks would save the day.

But those were winning days. For the O’s. For Baltimore. And for America, and “the West,” too.

Kicking Butt

Here’s the latest news from France. Bloomberg:

French Ambassador exits Niger after standoff with military junta.  

Even just a few years ago, France would have sent in the gendarmes, who would have kicked some African butts…passed around some francs to the local strongmen…and set things in order. No more. Now it withdraws.

But it is not just France that is losing its empire; it is “the West.” The BRICs are rising. The yuan is being used in place of the dollar. And though the US can still kick butt…the butts don’t stay kicked for long.  

Europeans were the first to get the benefits of the Industrial Revolution. One of those benefits, if you can call it that, was increased firepower. They used it to shoot their way into control of much of the entire world. The US was late to the blast-fest – having been restrained by the wisdom of its founding fathers and preoccupied by its own North American conquests. But by the end of the 19^th century, it had the world’s largest economy…and troops on the other side of the Pacific.   

Many colonial possessions were granted independence after WWII…often disastrously…but “the West” was still the world’s leading power group. After the Soviet Union gave up the fight, in 1991, it was unchallenged.

But those days are gone. Brooks is gone. No one saves the day.

The ‘experts’ – foreign policy scholars…diplomats…retired generals…and geostrategy buffs – have taught us so much about the Ukraine; if they continue, soon we will think it is north of Japan…and is the birthplace of country western music.

These ‘experts’ convinced the US to commit more than $100 billion to the war.  Now, it appears that no victory is possible. As Yogi Berra would say, “it’s déjà vu all over again.”

A Whole New Quagmire

In last weekend’s New York Times word mulch, Tom Friedman explained that he visited Kyiv for three days. He was seeing what the Kyiv leadership wanted him to see and attending a conference of people who have the same shallow ideas he has. Now an expert himself, his doubts are gone. The scales lifted from his eyes; where he once saw darkly now he sees the truth clearly, face to face. And like the catastrophic campaign in Iraq, it is really very simple: it is a fight between good and evil, right versus wrong.

Or, maybe not. Here’s Bill Kristol, raising money for a group called “Republicans for Ukraine:”

“When America arms Ukraine, we get a lot for a little. Putin is an enemy of America. We’ve used 5% of our defense budget to arm Ukraine, and with it, they’ve destroyed 50% of Putin’s Army. We’ve done all this by sending weapons from storage, not our troops. The more Ukraine weakens Russia, the more it also weakens Russia’s closest ally, China. America needs to stand strong against our enemies, that’s why Republicans in Congress must continue to support Ukraine.”

Sounds more like geo-politics than good vs. evil. And here’s Mitch McConnell, explaining why aid to the Ukraine really has little to do with democracy or justice:

American support for Ukraine is not charity. It’s in our own direct interests – not least because degrading Russia helps to deter China.     

Again, question marks are desperately needed. How did Russia become an enemy of the US? What are we deterring China from? Why? And is Russia really being “degraded?” If Russians are to be worse off, how will Americans be any better off?

More Equal than Others

But maybe everyone now knows how the Great Game is played. No question marks needed. No need to speculate about Putin’s security concerns…nor about the encroachment of NATO…nor about the coup d’etat orchestrated by the CIA and Victoria Nuland.  

Last week, Joe Biden gave a remarkable speech to the UN. He told the assembled notables such a series of whoppers we half expected his pants to catch fire. He made it known that America was in full support of “sovereignty,” “territorial integrity” and “a world governed by basic rules that apply equally to all nations.” He went on to characterize the Russo-Ukrainian war as Russia’s “war of conquest.”

How the delegates must have chuckled to themselves. They knew full well that Russia couldn’t even conquer neighboring Ukraine much less anything else. And of all the UN’s 193 members none violated the basic rules more often or more flagrantly than the US. In the 21st century alone, US soldiers intervened – often with remotely-launched drones – in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Libya and Syria. It also sponsored dozens of ‘regime change’ efforts – including at least one this year, in which the elected and popular president of Pakistan, Imran Khan, was replaced in a coup d’etat. His sin? He was too “aggressively neutral” on the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Maybe the UN members also recalled the US-led attack on Serbia in 1999. It did so, with Russian backing, to support the Kosovans’ struggle for independence. But what had happened to its high regard for “independence” when Russia came to the aid of Donbas separatists, in the Russian-speaking area of Eastern Ukraine, 25 years later?   

Yeah…take us back to Kosovo…that’s where we want to go. Sure.

Regards,

Bill Bonner

Joel’s Note: Readers of these pages will have noticed the aforementioned BRICS nations are adding letters faster than the LGBTQIA2S++ coalition. Only, unlike the latter acronym, the geopolitical bloc actually has a lot in common.

At its most recent meeting, in South Africa, the BRICS nations welcomed half a dozen new members – Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina. Astute geographers will notice that these countries have certain sea lane advantages. (Special thanks to our friend Byron King – a retired senior naval officer – for pointing this out!)

With Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, the BRICS+ nations essentially have control over the vital Strait of Hormuz, one of the so-called “choke points” for much of the world’s oil supply.

With Egypt and Ethiopia (and, by extension, Eritrea), they’ve more or less got the Red Sea and Suez Canal covered.

And by adding Argentina into the mix, along with South Africa, the BRICS control both Cape Horn, the passage around the bottom of the Americas, and the Cape of Good Hope, around the southern tip of Africa.

What does this mean for trade routes? For global supply lines? For naval seaways?

We spoke yesterday with BPR’s Investment Director, Tom Dyson, who has a keen interest in shipping stocks…

Another reason I really love the tankers is because it is one of the few industries that benefit from disruption and chaos, which suits me. So for example, in a war, anytime war breaks out, tankers do well. Anytime there's just any chaos or disruption or foreclosures or geopolitical stuff, the tankers do well. They benefit from chaos, because as soon as you have to shift the routes around, you end up having to take the cargoes further and the ships become scarce again.

We’ll publish our full Private Briefing with Tom for BPR members this weekend… when we’re back down at the fin del mundo. If you’re not already a member, but want to join us, feel free to choose a plan that works for you, here…