17 Comments

Why isn’t Hypothesis Number 1 or 2 a Massive Default followed by a Massive Bail-in? The government and the banks are broke with massive debt. If the “big event” happens if will arrive like a thief in the night and things will happen so quickly from that point it will make the events of 2008 look like they moved at glacial speed.

Americans don’t even know what a Bail-in is much less what the consequences of a national or even global Bail-in would look like and feel like. Everything is frozen - your bank and brokerage accounts, everything. From there it just gets worse. Talk to us about this scenario. I believe its’ likelihood is way north of 50% within the next 5 minutes to 3 years.

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𝑩𝒓𝒊𝒆𝒏 -- 𝑻𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒌𝒔 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒅𝒊𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒎𝒚 𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒕𝒐 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒄𝒆𝒑𝒕 𝒐𝒇 𝒃𝒂𝒏𝒌 "𝒃𝒂𝒊𝒍-𝒊𝒏𝒔"!

I was unaware of the concept until reading your comment. I started reading about it on the Internet. Damn! Instead of the government "bailing out" a "too big to fail" bank using taxpayer money, the "too big to fail" bank uses 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙢𝙤𝙣𝙚𝙮 to save itself, via your accounts and investments with the bank. One example given was the rescue of Cyprus banks in 2013, where bank depositors got an almost 50% haircut of their money to rescue the banks. The possibility of bank "bail-ins" in the US came about from the Dodd-Frank legislation in 2010. I agree with you that the BPR folks should provide their insight on this subject!

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Hey Tim -

Glad to see you are totally diggin' the substack font customizer!!

LoL...

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Where is Tom and the Wednesday report? Is he ok?

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Agreed. I even lost my Tweet virginity to @bpr and ask about it. All quiet still.... It’s not even so much about the report. I think we’re all genuinely concerned about Tom, Kate and the kids.

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Hi Aaron -

I hope you wore protection my friend. Lotsa nasties to catch in that pit...

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😂🤣

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Your headline question reminded me of something a college professor taught me many years ago. He asked his class to define an Expert, and then wryly said that an Expert is simply “someone who is smart enough to know what he is getting paid to say”. That was in 1978, and some things never change. If you get money, power, position and prestige by adopting the party line, the ideology of the ruling class, or simply the position of your boss, the unprincipled genius will do it every time. Never mind how ridiculous or anti-science it is.

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Speaking of Tom— where was his weekly report from Wednesday yesterday. Is he still with BPR ? Sherilyn Allen

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PG V I am curious, are these frustrations based on your experience managing your own Substack? Or, are they about BPR? As a BPR subscriber, once I signed in the first time, I am never asked to sign in again, either on the PC browser or the iphone app.

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Jan 28, 2023·edited Jan 28, 2023

It's your browser. My experience is similar to what JW described. I stay logged in for days without issue. Private chats and blocking individuals would be very nice enhancements for sure.

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Hola gentlemen -

Same here on the sign-in issue.

Private Chats would be great.

Undecided on the Blocking - on one hand it allows a user to not see posts from someone they don't like, but also leads to an insulation from ideas that you might not agree with but are simultaneously true and correct. If you don't like someone, just skip over their post...

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Ken Roberts “The Worlds Most Useless Money Manual & Course” chart patterns can only move up, down, or sideways, not witchery. 😂

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Good point , the rent market is more connected to the real market than house prices which are mostly in the realm of capital (which these days may be real or imagined)

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Good point , the rent market is more connected to the real market than house prices which are mostly in the realm of capital (which these days may be real or imagined)

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It is true that the rent market is more connected to the real market than house prices which are mostly in the realm of capital (which these days may be real or imagined)

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Rick. A guy who is sick of endless welfare/warfare. Cut the MIC budget by 80%. We have no enemies.

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