Day Three Before the Mast: Liberation Day

Looking back at the 4th century AD, we see wars, murders, assassinations,with people up-in-arms over tiny differences in abstract Christian doctrine. Today, these conflicts seem meaningless and futile

Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025

Bill Bonner, from aboard the Queen Mary II

God from God,

Light from Light,

true God from true God,

begotten, not made;

of the same essence as the Father.

—Nicene Creed

Life aboard the Queen Mary resembles nothing so much as living in a retirement community. Most of the travelers have gray hair. Many have walkers or wheelchairs. Who else has the leisure to spend eight days crossing from Europe to America, or vice versa?

While we are solidly and irretrievably in the ‘retired’ age group ourselves, we have never had an opportunity to observe its habits and mores so closely.

As near as we can determine, oldsters no longer lust after wealth, status or sex. What they want now is comfort…and diversion.

We had expected a long sea-voyage full of empty hours with long stretches of time lounging on deck chairs, perhaps under a plaid wool blanket. In anticipation, we brought books with us — one an eye-opening biography of master spy James Jesus Angleton, the other a dense history of the role of energy in human civilization.

But the remarkable thing is that there is neither empty time nor empty space available. Seated in the coffee shop, we are wedged in between other members of the geriatric set. Sipping coffee. Chatting. Music, nondescript and annoying, fills the air.

Hardly a moment goes by unfilled. One is stuffed with dance lessons. Another shows us how to play bridge — beginner or intermediate. We can attend a lecture…or listen to a choir. From sun-up until after midnight…the music…the action…the entertainment and education go on…and on.

This morning, a fascinating talk explained the origins of the Nicene Creed. It arose out of an effort to treat Christian heretics as though they were terrorists! As the lecturer described the heresy — Arianism — we found ourselves in agreement with it. Today, most Christians are probably Arians without realizing it.

But back then, after the Arian Emperor — Valens — was roundly defeated by the Goths at Hadrianopolis, it was taken as a divine sign that the Arias (leader of the heretical pack) was evil. God had deserted the Romans.

Arias maintained that Christ was an extraordinary man, but not a God. The council of Nicaea determined, however, that he was wrong. Christ, God, and the Holy Spirit were one…indivisible. They shared the same ‘essence’ as the Father.

What is interesting about this is the pattern that emerges. Looking back at the 4th century AD, we see wars, murders, assassinations…with people up-in-arms over tiny differences in abstract Christian doctrine. Today, these conflicts seem meaningless and futile. And yet, they were once as vivid and as critical as the difference between MAGA and Woke cultures…or Russian and Ukrainian amies…today.

In the book on James Angleton, we see the same thing as it played out in the 20th century. A very intelligent man, he spent his whole career ferreting out heretics…in this case, communist ‘moles.’

Not only was this a complete waste of time (communism was its own worst enemy and soon to retreat, on its own), Angleton was incompetent. Unbeknownst to him, his best friend — British agent Kim Philby — was actually a Soviet spy the whole time.

(As a curious footnote, Philby was also a writer for one of our newsletters, the Fleet Street Letter published in London since the 1930s. Angleton, meanwhile, was fired from the CIA by Bill Colby, a consultant to another of our letters, Strategic Investment. Philby defected to the Soviet Union and died in 1988. Colby, who we knew personally, was discovered dead on the shores of the Chesapeake Bay in 1996. More on this story… as newly released CIA documents give us more information.)

In the meantime…

Today is supposed to be Liberation Day. What we are meant to be liberated from… and how…remains to be seen. But Dear Readers are advised to hold the confetti…and not to expect a parade.

First, so far, the economy seems to be shackled to slow growth and inflation CNBC:

First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

Golden Age?

All we see is base metal…and according to economists surveyed by Newsweek, it’s going to get worse:

Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi on Thursday compared the current levels of uncertainty to those seen during 9/11 and the 2008 financial crash, having previously said that he felt the country was being "pushed into a recession" by Donald Trump's tariff policies.

Newsweek goes on to list five causes or indications of an approaching recession:

1. Falling consumer confidence

2. Rising credit card default and delinquency rates

3. Business Uncertainty… preventing or delaying capital investment

4. Trade policy uncertainty

5. Inflation expectations

Will we be liberated from these bad omens?

Or captured by them?

To be determined!

Regards,

Bill Bonner

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Research Note, By Dan Denning

The economy will shrink by 3.7% in the first quarter, once the dust on the data settles. This is according to the latest reading on the Atlanta Fed’s ‘GDPNow’ model. The model—which has forecast expansion for ten consecutive months—now has a ‘gold adjusted’ estimate. The gold adjusted estimate is that the economy will shrink by 1.4%.

Why?

Soaring gold imports increase the side of the trade deficit (goods and services). The trade deficit was $131.4 billion in January. The February figures will be released tomorrow morning. March figures won’t be released for another month. The Atlanta Fed model sees rising gold imports as ‘anomalous.’ But larger trade deficits reduce GDP.

It’s possible that large first quarter gold imports in the US were a form of tariff ‘front running.’ We’ll find out more later today. In the meantime, I spoke about gold with my old friend Charlie Morris yesterday in a 30-minute Private Briefing. Paid readers can watch it (or read the transcript) here.