Day of Reckoning

Even in a consensual democracy, the yoke of a police state never entirely disappears, but it is light...and controlled by accepted rules. We all drive on the right...and get where we are going.

Wednesday, August 13^th, 2025

Bill Bonner, from Poitou, France

The Big Man keeps getting bigger.

And the old conservatives...or what’s left of them...must be trying to remember...

Why was it that the founders wrote a constitution? What was the purpose of imposing rules...limits...restraints? How did they know what challenges a future POTUS would face? Reuters:

Trump takes over DC police in extraordinary move, deploys National Guard in capital

They must have had a reason...the founders, that is. They wrote up a constitution that would function like a junkyard dog’s electronic collar. The feds could go only so far...and no further.

But today, we have a Big Man who can spend as much money as he wants...round up people and put them in jail — without charges or trial...threaten foreign governments and foreign heads of state...bomb foreign capitals…sponsor two murderous wars at once (one in which women and children are the main victims)...and enact the biggest tax increase in world history with no debate and no vote.

He growls and snarls...and bites the hands that feed us all. But where does it lead? The Wall Street Journal:

President Trump is imitating [the] Chinese Communist Party by extending political control ever deeper into the economy.

Fortune:

President Trump has seized control of private enterprise’s strategic decision-making and investment policies while invading corporate board rooms so that he may dictate leadership staffing, punish corporate critics, and demand public compliance with his political agenda.

MAGA has gone Marxist and even, increasingly, Maoist.

Pence, Bannon, Carlson, Owens, Rogan, Paul...and many others — they must wonder, ‘Is this really what we signed up for?’

Even in a consensual democracy, the yoke of a police state never entirely disappears, but it is light...and controlled by accepted rules. We all drive on the right...and get where we are going. The feds are supposed to stay in their lane too — as spelled out in the US Constitution. It tells our rule-makers how far they can go.

But come the election of 2024 and the Big Man seems to have slipped his collar.

We are looking at what may or may not be an important fissure in Magaland. Traditional Republican conservatives still believe in the Constitution. They also believe in free trade, not trade managed by federal bureaucrats. They thought the Constitution backed them up:

No State shall, without the Consent of the Congress, lay any Imposts or Duties on Imports or Exports...

No serious economist favors tariffs. And thoughtful people can’t help but notice that the tariff edifice is built on false premises. Kenya Times:

Trump’s Tariffs Mean ‘Massive New Taxes’ on Americans, Chamber of Commerce Says

Americans pay for them, not foreigners — as Mike Pence pointed out yesterday. They are a tax on US consumers, not a gift from overseas. And they will raise prices as well as deepen the swamp. Lobbyists seek delays, exceptions, and adjustments — and get them.

That is another feature of shape shifting Big Man government. There are no rules that can be applied evenly and fairly. There is just deal making, Deep State lobbying...and what you can get away with.

Also in the news was this from the Independent:

President Donald Trump extended a trade truce with China for another 90 days Monday, delaying once again a showdown between the world’s two biggest economies.

China’s position as the world’s leading purveyor of strategic metals forced the Big Man back down. Asia Times:

Lithium price jump exposes China’s chokehold on supply

CATL battery maker’s Yichun mine shut down spikes global prices as Beijing clamps down on competitive markets.

Weaker nations were not so lucky. Poor little Switzerland faces a 39% rate. What did it do wrong? And India is up against a 50% tariff. AOL:

Higher Tariffs On India May Be Driving Crucial US Ally Closer To Russia, China

Indian Prime Minister Modi hastened to Beijing the day after Trump announced his tariff hit.

And now...Carlson, Owens et al must be wondering, as we are...is there any more effective way to drive the world’s most populous country to make common cause with China...

Or to prepare a late, degenerate empire for its day of reckoning?

Regards,

Bill Bonner

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Source: US Fiscal Data

Research Note, by Dan Denning

Bad news, everyone. The national debt went over $37 trillion for the first time ever, according to the ‘Debt to the Penny’ tracker provided by the US Treasury Department. The second line on the chart above is ‘debt held by the public.’ That’s increased 85% in the last six years, from $16.25 trillion in 2019 to $29.6 trillion today (in that same time, China’s holdings of US government bonds and notes has decreased by 31.4%, from over $1.1 trillion in 2019 to $756.5 billion today, a reduction of almost $350 billion).

Yesterday’s Monthly Statement of the Treasury showed a 20% year-over-year increase in the size of the government’s annual deficit. July’s $291 billion deficit was offset by $28 billion in ‘customs duties’ (tariff revenue). But with two months left in the government’s fiscal year, the $1.63 trillion year-to-date deficit should eclipse 2024’s figure of $1.83 trillion.

The government’s second biggest expense in July was the $831 billion in spent on ‘Net Interest,’ or interest payments on the national debt (this was larger than Medicare, Medicaid, and Defense spending, and smaller only than Social Security). This money is paid to bond holders (banks, insurance companies, pension funds, investors, foreign bond holders and central banks). But while it’s income for some, it otherwise creates nothing productive.

Paid readers should look for Investment Director Tom Dyson’s Market Note later today. Tom’s been generating income for subscribers by recommending/selling out-of-the-money put options on a proxy for government bonds. As bond yields move up, bond prices move down. In order to cap the interest expense on government debt…we believe there’s a ‘ceiling’ to 10-year bond yields around 5%…and thus a floor to bond prices, creating the opportunity to generate income selling puts. Look for more later today.