Like a big, lazy river, deficits just keep rollin’ along, adding more and more to America’s $35 trillion delta of debt. US interest payments go up. Sooner or later, asset holders get stuck in the mud.
Recession is no longer a big deal. With 50% or more of the country on some form of government dole, the state of the actual economy becomes irrelevant. The government "checks", aka transfer payments, now some 30% of GDP, will always be there. People ratchet back to subsistence living, forsaking the idea of discretionary spending that nominally drives the "economy". Half the country is living in permanent recession and likes it, because there is no risk. Klaus Schwab is waiting in the wings. Best always. PM
Dorothy, Klaus Schwab is a German economist and founder of the WEF, the World Economic Forum. He is famous for his saying that in the coming "economic reset", the non-elite of the world "will own nothing and like it". Since a successful middle class is the bedrock of capitalism, liberty, and individual freedom, conservatives have an intense dislike of the man and his views. The bigger government gets the closer we come to the realization of Klaus Schwab's prediction. Best always. PM
I get that question of concern. Heck they could possibly BE related. Maybe some research online? Although Ancestry dot com or something like it would definitely be precise. 🤷
The trouble is that that lazy river can just keep rolling on longer than we expect, or even believe possible. Thirty years ago I never thought it could get this far, yet here we are. It could collapse next week, or next year, or in several years, but until then we are better off riding the wave. At some point, confidence will collapse and it will all come apart, but I have given up trying to guess when. I stay in the stock market to ride the wave, and I have my gold and silver (not as much as I would like, but...) to help cover necessities when things change.
I think it was Lenin who said, "There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen." One of those weeks is lurking out there, and possible several of them.
You’re smart. I had a hunch, when the Dow went below 30k, that a rally might be coming, that this wasn’t “The Big Loss” starting…yet. But I listened to this newsletter, lost big in CMRE, and stayed in “max safety mode.” Oh well. Sucks to be me.
AI told me that if I have another 20 years left in me, to invest in “VOO”, that’s it, nothing else, just take a bunch of money and put it in that one ETF, that simple!
I don’t think anyone can accurately predict how much time they have left, but as far as financials, that’s what the machines are saying! 😂
According to the neural networks, that’s the best strategy in existence for long-term money making and preservation, bar none, no joke, that’s what the machine said! Bahahaha! 😂
Is there a chance the dollar could stay strong against all others like last time? Best of the bad scenario. So, there will still be demand for U.S. dollars/ treasury notes in the future. I loaded up on gold last time this happened and it rallied for a while, but the dollar got strong and deflated the gold investments. I'm in again and plan to follow your plan. Just a thought from my experiences from past.
I've always seen gold as a store of wealth, and as such, more akin to insurance or a savings account than an actual investment where appreciation and return are sought both short- and long-term. I don't presume to speak for Bill Bonner, but I gather he has similar views.
To answer your question, I would say "yes, there is a significant chance" because it has happened more than once. I find that switching out of investments all the time made money for everyone but me, but some are good at it. Maybe you're one of those? I wasn't. Best always. PM
I am 72 years and have been following your advice on precious metals and short term treasuries. I subscribed too late to get in on the oil and shipping stocks. My first question is do you think the risk of holding short term treasuries is signicantly increasing? Secondly, In light of political corruption and a weakening economy, would buying BRK A or B shares be a recommendation you would consider marking for your subscribers or are the shares currently too overvalued?
I highly doubt there's real risk in holding short-term treasuries and Tom has covered this topic quite a bit. My question is, do we move out on the yield curve in an extreme downturn as long-term bonds rally along with the dollar while all other assets sell off? Also, I realize BRK-B is more than P&C insurance, but I like to think of it as an insurance company. In the insurance space, I like to remind my coworkers I bought a few shares of CB before it was revealed that Buffet had been quietly accumulating a monster stake in this company for months. It was confirmation that I might be doing something right, however small. I also like ESGR and ESNT, although, somewhat expensive at the moment given both are up about 15% YTD. P&C insurance will be one of the sub-subsectors that will bounce back quickest in a crash - guessing.
For those among our fellow readers who can join the… Fight Fight Fight… the **Plum Book” is a defacto guerrilla’s directory assistance for one’s OODA Loop search for the corpus delicti of people believed to be involved in the [secretive] manipulation\control of government; a.k.a. "the deep state” and its extremist ideologies to flourish may be the actual issues of concern".
Interesting, the New Edition of the Plum Book revised by The American Savior, President Trump will pave the way for the Golden Years, Heaven on Earth beginning 1/20/25. A symbolic day for The New America.
As Wall Street pumps up this stupendous AI rally through their Main Stream Media cohorts and political false data, like jobs data or GDP or inflation declining data and Fed loosening narrative while promoting the biggest bubble of all time one wonders what the collapse will be like. Personally I'm worried about my broker's system response time. I've already seen deterioration in response with lots of "try back later" responses increasingly. I wonder if everyone might be trying to get out of the big and extremely narrow AI play at the same time. Maybe it will not be perception of the top that's important but the inability to trade a very concentrated speculation in those few stocks without a bid while everyone is trying to get in and trade.
Institutional holders and insiders of these few companies have already sold and big tech is showing signs of topping out. However, this silliness could continue for months since there's unprecedented levels of passive investing through 401Ks these days. If even 3% of 401K contributors stop contributing, you'll see the first cracks and then the crash. Something rotational happened in the markets last week that has never happened before (apparently) - in a single day, stocks that gained outnumbered stocks that declined by 5-1 and yet the S&P lost almost 1%. Strange huh? Nothing makes sense now and this service has been preparing us for what's coming. As Bill says, "stay tuned..."
I agree nothing makes sense. I do think this service is preparing us. That's why I like it and read it. I'm of the same mindset. The study of human insanity is amazing. I hope we can get rid of these leaders before they kill us.
If those of us who are of a certain chronological age need a reason(s) to have a hand in rearing the next generation(s); draw from this date in American history - July 4, 1776,
▫️ James Monroe, 18
▫️Aaron Burr, 20
▫️Alexander Hamilton, 21
▫️James Madison, 25
▫️Thomas Jefferson, 33
▫️John Adams, 40
▫️Paul Revere, 41
▫️George Washington, 44
Ages of the Founding Fathers, Founding Teenagers or Twenty-somethings. And though the average age of the signers of the Declaration of Independence was 44, more than a dozen of them were 35 or younger.
Let's hope the young people of today embrace the greatness of the United States.
The dump of BTC from MtGox and other sources is easing and the bitcoin market has began to rise. Now is a time to buy BTC before it goes too far. Will Bonner and Company adjust the buy and hold level on BTC and Altcoins?
I'll suggest to you what I suggest to everyone: Don't let others do your thinking for you. If you think BTC and Altcoins are a good move right now, make them. This site is littered with people who come on and say they regret not having done what they thought was a good idea. If I thought BTC was a good shot right now, I'd read Bonner everyday and buy BTC until I thought I had enough. Best always. PM
Thought I recall someone else asking same in a previous comment, Tom replied no, maintain at 1% (and no alt coins will ever be a part of that 1%)
I do have a bit more than that in BTC and ETH (got in early) and tho I've been tempted to increase both that and PM allocations I've resisted the urge (it's hard!!!)
Tom has made comments in the oast to the effect: "I must resist my urge to gamble”, which I can totally relate to...
Stay the course, BPR strategy has been working quite well in these uncertain times
Hard to imagine it was written before the assassination attempt on Saturday. Think Bill is smart not to get caught-up in all the crap the media is sending out. No upside until it calms down and see that - once again - there will be NO consequences for the Deep State. Not the Secret Service fault, not the local Police fault - it was Trump's fault, of course. Or maybe it was Putin's fault, or Hamas, or China, or Iran...........us ignore proles will fall for one of those.
I think an Ol'LSO" is probably right about the no comment from Bill, Ken There's more than enough stories floating around without sane people adding to it - so I'll add to it instead!! Whatever happened, one thing seems fairly clear; after watching the Secret Service & local police look like very bad B grade actors - apparently they knew about the guy for up to 30 minutes - one can only conclude that they're either hopelessly inept, or they're not? Which choice do you prefer? Off topic, but oh well
And you actually think Bill will add anything noteworthy or valuable to this incident that you couldn't get a better analysis elsewhere? Or are you just curious what Bonner will come up with? It could be good; it could be insane. You never know with him.
All this poll results are mere shadow of what really is going on behind the curtain of lies. Market will do what the market will do, regardless. Beware of the bear bearing bad tidings. Pay heed to to your triggers.
I never let the fact that" Mr. market always has his day" get too far out of my mind. I don't understand why people forget this. I live with the facts that 1 Government is not your friend and 2 bad money chases out good 3 Mtr. market will have his day. Based on this and Mr. Bonners direction I am doing very well. The good Lords blessings to all.
Yup, PM. Two completely different concepts they are. Might I suggest to the littered; make certain y'all pick up a cold storage wallet the likes of Trezor™. It's like a precious metals vault, for the BTC & Altoins. ;- )
Posit this friends. The dollar has crashed, is no longer the reserve currency and not acceptable outside the US; nobody will lend us money to finance our deficits. Imported goods are priced far beyond the ability of Americans to buy them. Essentially, as far as the world is concerned, we have to pay cash or gold for whatever we buy. America and its citizens are subject to the immutable law of supply and demand. You want to buy something; you need something of value, not dollars, something of value. Americans will probably accept dollars because, after all, that's all there is. But foreigners demur; they have options. Unlimited government doles end because the worker bees don't want to support the unworking bees. Fortunately, we have energy and efficient farmers. What is there that we can't produce and do we need it? If we want it, so there's a market, we can probably produce it. I think this would work. And, if it works, the dollar will recover. So, forgetting our a past as we always do, we re-enter the spend, spend, borrow, borrow, deficit world and do this all over, again.
A question for Bill. WE always here of Toms ideas, would Bill care to share what he himself is currently invested in. Land obviously as USA, Argentina, and Ireland are written about but what else does he like?
Recession is no longer a big deal. With 50% or more of the country on some form of government dole, the state of the actual economy becomes irrelevant. The government "checks", aka transfer payments, now some 30% of GDP, will always be there. People ratchet back to subsistence living, forsaking the idea of discretionary spending that nominally drives the "economy". Half the country is living in permanent recession and likes it, because there is no risk. Klaus Schwab is waiting in the wings. Best always. PM
PM: What does Klaus Schwab waiting in the wrings mean?? The only reason I am asking is that Schwab is one of the companies I deal with.
YOU deal with Charles Schwab and not with KLAUS SCHWAB. Big difference.
The term ignorant is not a perjorative. Is simply defined someones lack of knowledge on a particular subject.
Peter. How someone on this thread could not know the difference is beyond me.
Dorothy, Klaus Schwab is a German economist and founder of the WEF, the World Economic Forum. He is famous for his saying that in the coming "economic reset", the non-elite of the world "will own nothing and like it". Since a successful middle class is the bedrock of capitalism, liberty, and individual freedom, conservatives have an intense dislike of the man and his views. The bigger government gets the closer we come to the realization of Klaus Schwab's prediction. Best always. PM
I get that question of concern. Heck they could possibly BE related. Maybe some research online? Although Ancestry dot com or something like it would definitely be precise. 🤷
Good question, regardless.
The trouble is that that lazy river can just keep rolling on longer than we expect, or even believe possible. Thirty years ago I never thought it could get this far, yet here we are. It could collapse next week, or next year, or in several years, but until then we are better off riding the wave. At some point, confidence will collapse and it will all come apart, but I have given up trying to guess when. I stay in the stock market to ride the wave, and I have my gold and silver (not as much as I would like, but...) to help cover necessities when things change.
I think it was Lenin who said, "There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen." One of those weeks is lurking out there, and possible several of them.
You’re smart. I had a hunch, when the Dow went below 30k, that a rally might be coming, that this wasn’t “The Big Loss” starting…yet. But I listened to this newsletter, lost big in CMRE, and stayed in “max safety mode.” Oh well. Sucks to be me.
AI told me that if I have another 20 years left in me, to invest in “VOO”, that’s it, nothing else, just take a bunch of money and put it in that one ETF, that simple!
I don’t think anyone can accurately predict how much time they have left, but as far as financials, that’s what the machines are saying! 😂
According to the neural networks, that’s the best strategy in existence for long-term money making and preservation, bar none, no joke, that’s what the machine said! Bahahaha! 😂
Is there a chance the dollar could stay strong against all others like last time? Best of the bad scenario. So, there will still be demand for U.S. dollars/ treasury notes in the future. I loaded up on gold last time this happened and it rallied for a while, but the dollar got strong and deflated the gold investments. I'm in again and plan to follow your plan. Just a thought from my experiences from past.
I've always seen gold as a store of wealth, and as such, more akin to insurance or a savings account than an actual investment where appreciation and return are sought both short- and long-term. I don't presume to speak for Bill Bonner, but I gather he has similar views.
To answer your question, I would say "yes, there is a significant chance" because it has happened more than once. I find that switching out of investments all the time made money for everyone but me, but some are good at it. Maybe you're one of those? I wasn't. Best always. PM
True. I'm not sure, however , what the implication of the saudi's getting rid of the petrol dollar is. I would be significant.
I am 72 years and have been following your advice on precious metals and short term treasuries. I subscribed too late to get in on the oil and shipping stocks. My first question is do you think the risk of holding short term treasuries is signicantly increasing? Secondly, In light of political corruption and a weakening economy, would buying BRK A or B shares be a recommendation you would consider marking for your subscribers or are the shares currently too overvalued?
I highly doubt there's real risk in holding short-term treasuries and Tom has covered this topic quite a bit. My question is, do we move out on the yield curve in an extreme downturn as long-term bonds rally along with the dollar while all other assets sell off? Also, I realize BRK-B is more than P&C insurance, but I like to think of it as an insurance company. In the insurance space, I like to remind my coworkers I bought a few shares of CB before it was revealed that Buffet had been quietly accumulating a monster stake in this company for months. It was confirmation that I might be doing something right, however small. I also like ESGR and ESNT, although, somewhat expensive at the moment given both are up about 15% YTD. P&C insurance will be one of the sub-subsectors that will bounce back quickest in a crash - guessing.
The only way America will fall is if The Son of Fred, The American Savior, Lord President Trump does not win in November.
“Thug livin', out of prison, pistols in the air (Haha)
Bidn, remember when I used to let you sleep on the couch
And beg a *itc* to let you sleep in the house?
Now it's all about Versace, you copied my style
Five shots couldn't drop me, I took it and smiled
Now I'm back to set the record straight
An AK, I'm still the thug that you love to hate
Motha*f*ck, I hit 'em up!”
(Tupac)
The Son of Fred is eternal!
Fight Fight Fight
MAGA
Trump 2024
Wooooo!!!
E Solomon,
For those among our fellow readers who can join the… Fight Fight Fight… the **Plum Book” is a defacto guerrilla’s directory assistance for one’s OODA Loop search for the corpus delicti of people believed to be involved in the [secretive] manipulation\control of government; a.k.a. "the deep state” and its extremist ideologies to flourish may be the actual issues of concern".
Interesting, the New Edition of the Plum Book revised by The American Savior, President Trump will pave the way for the Golden Years, Heaven on Earth beginning 1/20/25. A symbolic day for The New America.
As Wall Street pumps up this stupendous AI rally through their Main Stream Media cohorts and political false data, like jobs data or GDP or inflation declining data and Fed loosening narrative while promoting the biggest bubble of all time one wonders what the collapse will be like. Personally I'm worried about my broker's system response time. I've already seen deterioration in response with lots of "try back later" responses increasingly. I wonder if everyone might be trying to get out of the big and extremely narrow AI play at the same time. Maybe it will not be perception of the top that's important but the inability to trade a very concentrated speculation in those few stocks without a bid while everyone is trying to get in and trade.
Institutional holders and insiders of these few companies have already sold and big tech is showing signs of topping out. However, this silliness could continue for months since there's unprecedented levels of passive investing through 401Ks these days. If even 3% of 401K contributors stop contributing, you'll see the first cracks and then the crash. Something rotational happened in the markets last week that has never happened before (apparently) - in a single day, stocks that gained outnumbered stocks that declined by 5-1 and yet the S&P lost almost 1%. Strange huh? Nothing makes sense now and this service has been preparing us for what's coming. As Bill says, "stay tuned..."
I agree nothing makes sense. I do think this service is preparing us. That's why I like it and read it. I'm of the same mindset. The study of human insanity is amazing. I hope we can get rid of these leaders before they kill us.
If those of us who are of a certain chronological age need a reason(s) to have a hand in rearing the next generation(s); draw from this date in American history - July 4, 1776,
▫️ James Monroe, 18
▫️Aaron Burr, 20
▫️Alexander Hamilton, 21
▫️James Madison, 25
▫️Thomas Jefferson, 33
▫️John Adams, 40
▫️Paul Revere, 41
▫️George Washington, 44
Ages of the Founding Fathers, Founding Teenagers or Twenty-somethings. And though the average age of the signers of the Declaration of Independence was 44, more than a dozen of them were 35 or younger.
Let's hope the young people of today embrace the greatness of the United States.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2013/08/how-old-were-the-founding-fathers-the-leaders-of-the-american-revolution-were-younger-than-we-imagine.html
The dump of BTC from MtGox and other sources is easing and the bitcoin market has began to rise. Now is a time to buy BTC before it goes too far. Will Bonner and Company adjust the buy and hold level on BTC and Altcoins?
I'll suggest to you what I suggest to everyone: Don't let others do your thinking for you. If you think BTC and Altcoins are a good move right now, make them. This site is littered with people who come on and say they regret not having done what they thought was a good idea. If I thought BTC was a good shot right now, I'd read Bonner everyday and buy BTC until I thought I had enough. Best always. PM
Yep, littered with people like me. Truth.
Thought I recall someone else asking same in a previous comment, Tom replied no, maintain at 1% (and no alt coins will ever be a part of that 1%)
I do have a bit more than that in BTC and ETH (got in early) and tho I've been tempted to increase both that and PM allocations I've resisted the urge (it's hard!!!)
Tom has made comments in the oast to the effect: "I must resist my urge to gamble”, which I can totally relate to...
Stay the course, BPR strategy has been working quite well in these uncertain times
It’s getting pretty dicey out there. When should we be looking to cash in our T-bills before a default?
Q: Good question!
Assume this was written before the shooting and that Bill will comment soon.
Hard to imagine it was written before the assassination attempt on Saturday. Think Bill is smart not to get caught-up in all the crap the media is sending out. No upside until it calms down and see that - once again - there will be NO consequences for the Deep State. Not the Secret Service fault, not the local Police fault - it was Trump's fault, of course. Or maybe it was Putin's fault, or Hamas, or China, or Iran...........us ignore proles will fall for one of those.
I think an Ol'LSO" is probably right about the no comment from Bill, Ken There's more than enough stories floating around without sane people adding to it - so I'll add to it instead!! Whatever happened, one thing seems fairly clear; after watching the Secret Service & local police look like very bad B grade actors - apparently they knew about the guy for up to 30 minutes - one can only conclude that they're either hopelessly inept, or they're not? Which choice do you prefer? Off topic, but oh well
I think the most telling thing is that the SS gave him 5 chances to fulfill his contract before giving up and doing a Jack Ruby.
And you actually think Bill will add anything noteworthy or valuable to this incident that you couldn't get a better analysis elsewhere? Or are you just curious what Bonner will come up with? It could be good; it could be insane. You never know with him.
All this poll results are mere shadow of what really is going on behind the curtain of lies. Market will do what the market will do, regardless. Beware of the bear bearing bad tidings. Pay heed to to your triggers.
I never let the fact that" Mr. market always has his day" get too far out of my mind. I don't understand why people forget this. I live with the facts that 1 Government is not your friend and 2 bad money chases out good 3 Mtr. market will have his day. Based on this and Mr. Bonners direction I am doing very well. The good Lords blessings to all.
Yup, PM. Two completely different concepts they are. Might I suggest to the littered; make certain y'all pick up a cold storage wallet the likes of Trezor™. It's like a precious metals vault, for the BTC & Altoins. ;- )
Posit this friends. The dollar has crashed, is no longer the reserve currency and not acceptable outside the US; nobody will lend us money to finance our deficits. Imported goods are priced far beyond the ability of Americans to buy them. Essentially, as far as the world is concerned, we have to pay cash or gold for whatever we buy. America and its citizens are subject to the immutable law of supply and demand. You want to buy something; you need something of value, not dollars, something of value. Americans will probably accept dollars because, after all, that's all there is. But foreigners demur; they have options. Unlimited government doles end because the worker bees don't want to support the unworking bees. Fortunately, we have energy and efficient farmers. What is there that we can't produce and do we need it? If we want it, so there's a market, we can probably produce it. I think this would work. And, if it works, the dollar will recover. So, forgetting our a past as we always do, we re-enter the spend, spend, borrow, borrow, deficit world and do this all over, again.
A question for Bill. WE always here of Toms ideas, would Bill care to share what he himself is currently invested in. Land obviously as USA, Argentina, and Ireland are written about but what else does he like?
This is the type of excellent column I expect from Bonner, but unfortunately rarely get. Hope he keeps it up.