Crackpot Economics

Deficits add up. Debt needs to be refinanced. And the larger the cost of servicing past spending, the less is available for the present.

Scandinavian Grunge Lines with Nordic Runes, Source: Getty Images

Tuesday, March 04^th, 2025

Bill Bonner, writing from Baltimore, Maryland

‘Det som göms i snö, kommer fram vid tö.’

(What is hidden in snow, is revealed at thaw.)

—Old Norse Saying

There are many issues that get people riled up. And many are the dimwit policies pushed by politicians and elite groups. Personal pronouns, passing out condoms, men competing as women in sports, ‘annexing’ Greenland, forced vaccinations…and here’s a new one. The White House:

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: English is declared as the official language of the United States. A nationally designated language is at the core of a unified and cohesive society, and the United States is strengthened by a citizenry that can freely exchange ideas in one shared language.

Really?

Switzerland has five languages. India has 122 major languages and 1,599 minor ones. Why can’t people speak whatever language they want? And in the US today, almost everyone speaks English. Would you say it was a ‘unified and cohesive society?’

Typical of the world improvers, they want to force everyone into a single formula.

But it’s clearly unfair to give native born English speakers an advantage. Why not level the playing field by designating some language no one speaks as the official tongue? We recommend Old Norse.

Learning Old Norse would connect us to our first European immigrants…and it would stimulate both the economy and the tired, complacent minds of its citizens. Besides, it would be useful to know what those crafty Greenlanders are saying after we take it over.*

But while these fringe issues grab headline attention, in themselves they don’t represent existential threats. Whether Americans speak English or Estonian…the US would still be on its way to $50 trillion of debt before the end of Trump’s second term.

Deficits add up. Debt needs to be refinanced. And the larger the cost of servicing past spending, the less is available for the present. This is inherently and obviously a crackpot way to run a nation. It guarantees chaos, inflation, defaults and poverty. But it is the direction taken by every administration since the days of Jimmy Carter.

The first four months of this fiscal year added another $830 billion in debt. At that rate, even with Elon looking for nickels under the seat cushions, the debt will be like water gushing up out of sewers and storm drains…malodorous and hard to clean up. At 5% interest (which could go up), that would be an interest burden of $2.5 trillion per year… or about half of all federal tax receipts. Insider Investor adds:

The billionaire investor [Ray Dalio] said "debt accumulates like plaque" in a financial system, and that poses a "problem" for governments as interest payments eat up more and more of their budgets.

Dalio compared himself to a doctor telling a patient about a plaque buildup: "You're in a high risk of this heart attack, essentially, and now what are you going to do about it?"

"Don't wait for this to happen and then try to make it better," Dalio said.

The federal government spent about $6.75 trillion last fiscal year but only collected $4.92 trillion in revenue, meaning it ran a $1.8 trillion deficit, according to the Treasury's website. The national debt has more than tripled since 2000 to an estimated $36.2 trillion, the website showed.

The only member of the House to show any real concern about this is the steadfast Thomas Massie of Kentucky. He was the only Republican to vote ‘no’ on the latest Republican spendfest bill.

Massie explained his vote to his constituents on X by writing: “The GOP Budget Resolution that passed the House this week increases the debt limit from $36 trillion to $40 trillion, and spends enough $ to increase the debt from $36 trillion to $56 trillion over the next 10 years. But yay for tax cuts!”

Maybe Massie was being sarcastic. Because there is no real tax cut in the measure passed last week. What there is a slick tax scam, about which, more tomorrow.

For now, it is hidden under the snow…that is, under near record high spending…record high debt…and record high stock prices. It takes time for snow to melt. Inflation emerges gradually, poking up through the frost like crocuses in early spring.

Later, we see the old beer cans and wind-blown pizza boxes.

Verðið á varðbergi. (Stay tuned.)

Regards,

Bill Bonner

*Language is a sensitive topic. Canada wisely decided to allow both French and English as official languages. But the Ukraine did not. After the US-sponsored coup in 2014, it eliminated Russian as an official language...which proved to be one of the opening shots of the war.

---

Research Note, by Dan Denning

President Trump heads to Capitol Hill tonight to address a joint session of Congress. Over the weekend, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now indicator projected that the economy will contract by almost 3% in the first quarter of 2025 (less than a month ago, the indicator projected growth of almost 4%). Stocks fell and gold rose yesterday with rumors of a ‘Trumpcession.’

The Fed model is ‘pricing in’ higher import prices (tariffs) and high inflation. That toxic twosome could lead to lower consumption. And since consumption is over-two thirds of the current calculation for GDP, lower consumption means a slower economy (and missed earnings projections for overpriced stocks).

Howard Lutnick, Trump’s Secretary of Commerce, wants to remove government spending from the GDP calculation. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said that if you strip out government deficits, the private sector was in a recession last year. Seen above, government deficits of over 5% of GDP have been propping up GDP figures since 2020.

What does it all mean? Take our poll below. Or leave a comment with your own thoughts.