26 Comments
User's avatar
𝐓𝐢𝐦 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐝𝐰𝐢𝐧's avatar

It looks like the book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" could be updated with several chapters on crypto, NFTs and other insane concepts in today's financial markets!

BTW, I have a "magic beans NFT" for sale. Only $2 million dollars. Once owned by a fellow named Jack.

Expand full comment
Loic's avatar

It’s actually very interesting. If you were able to post a picture of the nft, would that cheapen it or increase its perceived value? Because seeing is believing, but people having seen (and screengrabbed) it might not see the value.. or they might want the rights to own the “real thing” even more. What a crazy world we live in

Expand full comment
Dow Hurst's avatar

A method to make a copyable digital object truly unique is the value behind the NFT tech. The need for NFT is essential and is much better than typical copyright technology for the digital realm. As the fluff burns away, this tech will be with us for a long time. If the digital art had actually been real art created by someone with true talent (maybe that has been done already somewhere) then the current NFT digital art crash might not have happened. A new piece of art created with the artistic skill equivalent of Da’Vinci as a digital work, secured as unique by NFT tech, IS actually a valuable item. But an ugly cartoon monkey pumped up by mania isn’t. Though, I guess if you were freezing to death the Mona Lisa might become fuel for the fire that keeps you alive. Value is all relative to need in the end.

Expand full comment
Dow Hurst's avatar

I should modify my comment a bit since 2D digital art doesn’t compare to regular oil paintings. A 3D effect is needed for depth. Norman Rockwell’s paintings come to my mind. I saw a painting of a WWII machine gunner decades ago at the High Museum of Art in Atlanta, GA. The thick layering of oil paints made the image come to life for me. Digital art could get there and probably will once 3D tech evolves just a bit more.

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Dec 7, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Loic's avatar

I wonder if there is such a thing as insurance against the random acts of climate defenders. Or whether such insurance policies would be deemed politically incorrect

Expand full comment
Egypt Solomon's avatar

“So goodbye yellow brick road

Where the dogs of society howl

You can't plant me in your penthouse

I'm going back to my plough” (John, 1973).

In 1931 Bonds plummeted like kamikaze. Stocks got smoked like rum. Nowhere to run. Real Estate pie high like turkey clobber riding the crest on a fictional woody board.

2023, crypto headed to $12,500 after “they” push the reset button, before 12/14? Hahaha, what a beauty! Layoffs galore, must work in unison so nobody takes the blame alone.

Solution, work lots and lots of overtime, and do not look at your portfolio or HSA account if you have one, you will get spooked! 😂

Have a great day! 😃

Expand full comment
Brad Nord's avatar

I know You here on Bonner Private reseach have talked about what is going to happen in Europe and how they will be freezing Ect. The fact is on this last Saturday, 12-3-2022, the E. U.'s natural gas storage is 91.3% full and growing. The E.U.'s target had been 80%. They have had no issue buying natural gass to fill it's storage.

Expand full comment
JO's avatar

They are paying an exceptional 'premium' for that gas, and they still may not have enough. The premium was so large that many 3rd world contracts have been broken, the suppliers paying penalty charges and still making more than they would from the original contracts. The EU is still in trouble, yet exported a lot of the consequences of their mismanagement to the 3rd world. It ain't good.

PS IF Germany is doing so well, how come they just had to arrest a load of people to stop a coup?

Expand full comment
Egypt Solomon's avatar

Nice, glad to hear, they should pipe some over here to America and refill the reserves that are running on fumes and about to bone dry! 😂

The catalyst looks reversed. Everyone looking at Europe for a global assessment with the war, crypto collapse, and financial tribulations, but perhaps they are looking in the wrong direction and the straw that breaks the camel’s back will once again root on Wall Street soil, like in 2008.

If you are a philosopher you can say something like, “well, it is all connected”, but will it matter when the connection makes mash potatoes out of gravy and Soylent Green is people! It’s people! 😂

Expand full comment
Loic's avatar

I read an interesting statement somewhere on quota regarding Germany recently. Something to the effect that “what did we think one of the world’s foremost engineering nations would do, fold over and die? No they’d engineer storage and distribution solutions to their nat gas problems!” Its likely we are all overestimating what can happen in the near term and will be shocked to realise what we can get up to given enough time

Expand full comment
Brad Nord's avatar

Bill, what you probably don’t understand is the people who studied the blockchain and researched the industry and invested in legitimate crypto like Bitcoin are up by still today hundreds of percent.

Expand full comment
Frank Gaines's avatar

Thanks PGV. Great comments.

For what it is worth, this is the 90 year cycle of the 1929-32 decline. Elliott Wave Theory says this decline has to go below the low of 2009 which was 6400 on the Dow. I think it will be slow and take time. And there will be some sharp rallies in the process. If that happens we are looking at a 80% decline from 36,000.

Expand full comment
Juan's avatar

What you are saying it s that the S&P and Dow will have the same « fate «  that the Nikkei in 1990 . 84 % decline . I see the same pain 🥲

Expand full comment
Tom's avatar

So much more to happen if the FED actually significantly reduces its balance sheet.

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Dec 8, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Worm Farmer extraordinaire's avatar

The pigs will never allow a gold standard. Reduces their power.

Expand full comment
Dow Hurst's avatar

Just got an advertising email from binance.us that 0% fees for trading ETH is now available. I guess the bubble will pop for a little longer.

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Dec 7, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Juan's avatar

PG V , Dictators whom leave their country have the people of that country on the street demonstrating during weeks and months with huge amounts of life’s casualties... I don’t see that in Russia . Unfortunately the outcome of this war and the fate of Putin are hard to guess .

Expand full comment
Egypt Solomon's avatar

Putin is circling the drain, but he will not leave Gog (Russia) or planet Earf, without first nuking the Ukraine!

Hey, look at the bright side PG V, your Gold to DOW ratio will hit below 5 at that point in time and you will be a very very rich man sitting on the other side of the planet!

Conversation between Putin and Ali:

“Hey Rocco, you need some back up?”

“Come on guys, this ain’t no pie eating contest!” (Rocky V) 😂

J/K, what a terrible terrible situation!

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Dec 7, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Tim Pallies's avatar

"China sees what happened to Russia" As far as I can see, Russia is doing fine. Still selling lots of oil. Ruble is strong. Most of the world has no interest in siding with U.S. against them. What exactly do you think China is seeing?

Expand full comment
Worm Farmer extraordinaire's avatar

Tim/ I think about 75% of the world stands with Russia. They are tired of the USA invading sovereign countries. The entire world is moving away from us. We don't have allies only subservient countries. We need to mind our own business. Washington said " trade with all, align with none".

Expand full comment
𝐓𝐢𝐦 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐝𝐰𝐢𝐧's avatar

Great comments, as always. Only thing I can add is to #2. In the future, ammonia may overtake hydrogen as an alternative fuel. Yes, ammonia will burn under certain conditions and can serve as a fuel. Still need some fine tuning in the lab. Research continues. Main advantage is that it is safer and easier to handle than hydrogen. Merry Christmas to you too!

Expand full comment
Xavier Narutowicz's avatar

Agree with 1-9. # 10 is a little iffy. China can rankle the US effectively by giving more support to Russia. I doubt Putin is going anywhere, the oligarchs live and die on Russian resources, doubt they want to surrender to the West.

If China blockades Taiwan, what could the US do?

Our supply chain emanates from China.

Expand full comment
Xavier Narutowicz's avatar

The US was China, the worlds biggest industrial economy, producing stuff is how we won WW2. 70 years of military disasters proves we are not good at war. Basically, we are huff and puff, a delusional paper tiger. The only power we have is nuclear deterrence and ,somehow, the idiots believe they can win.

Expand full comment
User's avatar
Comment deleted
Dec 7, 2022
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
Xavier Narutowicz's avatar

I don’t think China will ever invade Taiwan, they would embargo. If Taiwan Semi is moving to the US that is the beginning of strangling Taiwan economically.

Putin could die, I know nothing about that. If the oligarchs dethrone Putin, they might appoint someone worse.

A pipeline Will probably be built from Russia to China. The Saudis will keep selling to anyone that has hard currency willing to pay the highest price.

We are China’s biggest customer and much of what Walmart sells is in other countries. China has over a billion people and can develop its own markets; it is developing markets all over the globe, replacing the political, economic influence the US used to have as the worlds richest industrial nation. American corporations fueled China’s growth and created a monster at the expense of everyday Americans.

America is on the verge of financial collapse; we are a consumer nation funded by debt.

It has been 70 years of corruption and stupidly. The absurdity of our leaders verges on the insane, incomprehensible. Old elite Republicans were handed a populist gift by Trump, a possibility at redemption and they pissed it away.

Expand full comment
Jimm Roberts's avatar

Your best prognosis to date

Expand full comment
Dave J's avatar

Great list and I think a lot of it comes to pass. Merry Christmas to you and yours.

Expand full comment