Although it's brand new, I like the new subscription model better than the previous one. I've been aboard for just over a year. I canceled the old 'rogue economics' sub when I called and asked who is writing and they said 'nomi prinz'- and I said no thanks. I stuck around because Bill brings up astute points not quite found in other newsletters. And concerning this new format, I noticed the key phrase from Bill 'without ads'. I see the difference already, and wish success upon this new venture in the new year as I tag along for the ride. Plus, the comedy (though at times unintended) is indispensable, and always enjoyable. The doom index has been helpful, and if you can attempt to give us a few months warning before the next stock market crash (which I believe you are working on timing), that would be icing on the cake. Thanks, Andrew Longaker
Thanks, Andrew! It's a new experience for us, too, so we appreciate our readers' patience as we "Ready, Fire, Aim" our way through...
As Editor at Large for the project, I sat down with Dan Denning earlier this week to map out some of our goals for the new year and beyond; what readers (and listeners) can expect going forward, various ideas on how we can stay connected and to continue to deliver Bill's ideas, etc.
We'll publish that conversation as a podcast - available to all BRP members, free and paid - in the coming days. Watch this space... and thanks again for joining us!
Research on, frere Thomas. I have modeled my retirement portfolio for the last 45 years assuming a mere 6% ROI. I am now sitting on $1 million plus in cash wasting away at .015%. This is criminal. Of course, my investment accounts are doing substantially better (avg 12% earnings) these accounts are also exposed to periodic downturns. Risk is still subordinate to Returns. If you can find that Holy Grail 8% with no risk, I am subscribing to what you are selling.
Bill, Tom, and Dan: I am (or was?) a subscriber to the Bonner-Denning newsletter. I know Tom has (or had?) a subscription investment service. I hate to sound confused, but would it be possible for you folks to explain the new subscription format and what’s become of the previous services. I’ve signed on to your monthly subscription to give it a try, but I’d like to know what else, if anything, is available. Thanks!
Hi Mark1 - Thanks for checking in and for continuing to keep up with Bill, Tom and Dan's latest venture. It's great to have you with us!
As Editor at Large for Bonner Private Research, I sat down with Dan Denning just this week to discuss what's ahead for the project... that is, what readers can expect from us in this new, advertisement-free format, how we're focusing on investment research (as opposed to spending our time running a large publishing corporation), and what tiers of membership will be available as we evolve.
That discussion will air as a podcast this Friday and will be available to all BPR members, free and paid, as a kind of public service announcement. Watch this space for more and, again, thanks for following along. Cheers!
"US stocks extended gains for the second session on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones climbing more than 150 points, and both the S&P and the Nasdaq up over 0.5% buoyed by upbeat economic data. Updated figures showed the US economy expanded by an annualized 2.3% in Q3, above second estimates of 2.1% and consumer confidence improved more than expected in December while existing home sales rose for the third month in November."
This reports that the US economy and house prices "expanded" less than US inflation 'expanded' resulting in "US stocks extended gains for the second session on Wednesday".
So the big inflation hole in the bucket is being ignored whilst the market goes up?
It's like driving ones car with a big hole in the radiator, until one comes to the inevitable overheated seized full stop.
I'm going to miss Tom's postcards. They were always fun reading.
In response to Tom's 8% investment return goal, the best way I have found to make 8% is to swap my US dollars for USDC (Circle is the company) coins which are a dollar pegged crypto and lend them on the Nexo platform, which is a solid billion dollar swiss company.
If you hold 10% of your account value in the NEXO token, they bump the rate and pay you 10% interest on your dollar pegged USDC and 7% on the NEXO tokens. US citizens can buy NEXO tokens on Hotbit exchange.
Additionally, 30% of the company profits go back to the NEXO token holders as dividends. The lending is asset backed and performed with AI so the loans are heavily collateralized. And there is no lockup.
I use a US based exchange as the fiat on ramp (Kracken or Binance.US) to wire my funds, then exchange to USDC and transfer to NEXO. It's the best, most liquid way to earn these types of rates.
Here is my referral link if anyone wants to set an account up. We each get $25 in free bitcoin if used.
I would be VERY interested what you think of this article from Moneyweek: In praise of profits – Ed Yardeni’s stirring defence of capitalism
It is commonly held that the average American's income has not risen for decades. But in truth, real earnings have been rising by 1.5% since 1995. And that's down to one thing, says Max King: capitalism.
Max King author headshot
by: Max King
21 DEC 2021
Anti-capitalist demonstrators
Nothing has raised standards of living like capitalism has
“If you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes the truth” according to the saying widely, but wrongly, attributed to Joseph Goebbels.
It seems to be the basis for the widespread acceptance of many economic wisdoms which do not stand up to analysis.
For example, in The Sunday Times, hardly a bastion of “progressive” opinions, Matthew Syed recently wrote that “over the past 40 years, the median wage in America hasn’t risen a cent, once inflation is taken into account”.
This is repeated by commentators on both the left and right of the political spectrum, but there’s just one problem: it isn’t true. And it’s just one of a number of claims that Ed Yardeni refutes in his latest book, In Praise of Profits.
Income inequality is over-exaggerated – and it’s not necessarily a bad thing
In his new book, Ed Yardeni explains that this claim, that the median wage in America has not risen in decades, is based on an “extremely flawed August 2018 study by Pew Research”, later magnified by President Biden’s bizarre claim that wages are the lowest in 70 years. In fact, using the more reliable Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator, a measure of inflation based on changes in personal consumption, rather than the Consumer Price Index, real average hourly earnings have been increasing at a solid average annual rate of 1.5% since 1995.
Median real household income, “a big favourite of economic pessimists and political progressives”, was up by 9.2% between 2016 and 2019. Deflated by the CPI, the measure was up 24.4% since 1995; and by the PCE, up by 36%.
Moreover, the data excludes Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and other non-cash government benefits and takes no account of the falling size of households or rising participation in the workforce. Finally, the median household income survey is based on census data rather than hard data such as payroll statistics and tax returns.
Syed’s claim that “the top 1% of the population has increased its wealth faster than at any time since the founding of the republic” is on firmer ground but raises the question of why this matters. “Income inequality is an inherent consequence of capitalism”, writes Yardeni, “and capitalism causes the most income inequality during periods of prosperity. The rich do get richer but almost everyone’s standard of living improves during good times.”
Since wealth compounds, rising life expectancy increases inequality. “Most of the Forbes 400 tend to be older Americans.” As Mr Spock said in Star Trek: “live long and prosper.”
Wealth inequality, Yardeni agrees, has worsened slightly in recent years. But “constraining the ability of the wealthy to seize opportunities would affect the wellbeing of us all”. Economic inequality has been worsened by the Federal Reserve as the central bank’s “ultra-easy monetary policies in response to the pandemic sent the stock market to a record high and boosted the incomes of CEOs with pay packages heavily skewed towards stock compensation”.
Meanwhile, lots of households that depend on fixed-interest returns saw their incomes dive and the real value of bank deposits started to fall as inflation rose. This is not entrepreneurial capitalism, but its antithesis, crony capitalism.
Social mobility is more widespread than realised
Most analyses of income and wealth distribution over time ignore mobility or assume that it doesn’t exist. In fact, some of the rich get richer, some get poorer while some of the poor get richer.
Some of America’s oligarchs have middle-class backgrounds, some humble backgrounds, but few were born with a silver spoon in their mouth. “On balance,” Yardeni says, “the data strongly suggests that mobility is on the upside.”
Yardeni dismisses the notion that high profits are the result of low wages and warns that government attempts to lift wages could backfire. “The goal of any president should be to increase workers’ standard of living but nominal wages can only increase faster than prices if productivity rises”.
The Economic Policy Institute started claiming in the 1990s that pay had decoupled from prices, but Yardeni exposes serious flaws in its analysis. Productivity, he shows, moves in decade-long cycles, but, having slowed from an annual rate of 4% in 2003 to 0.6% in 2015, has since accelerated.
The myth of low productivity is the basis for diatribes against stock buybacks, which supposedly reward investors at the expense of productivity-enhancing investment. Yardeni shows that $5trn of buybacks between 2011 and 2019 only enhanced earnings per share by 1%. The rest offset the issuance of stock as compensation not just to senior staff but other employees as well. This incentive may have helped enhance productivity.
In his foreword, Yardeni quotes the economist David Ricardo; ”nothing contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits” and also Winston Churchill; “it’s a socialist idea that making profits is a vice. I consider the real vice is making losses”. He omitted the priceless quote from Karl Marx’s long-suffering wife Jenny: “I wish Karl would spend a little less time talking about capital and a little more accumulating it”.
Yardeni’s short and highly readable book, supplemented by tables and charts as evidence, is a powerful but well-argued antidote to much progressive thinking. Progressives have major achievements to their credit in terms of welfare and taxation, he says, and legitimate concerns about the corruption of crony capitalism – but “mission accomplished” is not and never will be part of their lexicon.
I would sorely miss these articles if had not found the new links. Thank you for keeping the show going.
Loved the debut column about "Crazy Cathy", sure opened things up with a bang.
Glad to have you aboard, Mic. Something tells me you're going to enjoy today's column, out in a few hours...
Although it's brand new, I like the new subscription model better than the previous one. I've been aboard for just over a year. I canceled the old 'rogue economics' sub when I called and asked who is writing and they said 'nomi prinz'- and I said no thanks. I stuck around because Bill brings up astute points not quite found in other newsletters. And concerning this new format, I noticed the key phrase from Bill 'without ads'. I see the difference already, and wish success upon this new venture in the new year as I tag along for the ride. Plus, the comedy (though at times unintended) is indispensable, and always enjoyable. The doom index has been helpful, and if you can attempt to give us a few months warning before the next stock market crash (which I believe you are working on timing), that would be icing on the cake. Thanks, Andrew Longaker
Thanks, Andrew! It's a new experience for us, too, so we appreciate our readers' patience as we "Ready, Fire, Aim" our way through...
As Editor at Large for the project, I sat down with Dan Denning earlier this week to map out some of our goals for the new year and beyond; what readers (and listeners) can expect going forward, various ideas on how we can stay connected and to continue to deliver Bill's ideas, etc.
We'll publish that conversation as a podcast - available to all BRP members, free and paid - in the coming days. Watch this space... and thanks again for joining us!
Gosh, you Fire before you Aim? LOL
Just kidding, just kidding. Carry on!
Been a fan since International Living days. Expect to continue.
I have the same issues as Mark !. How is my my previous subscription(s) handled with this new adventure. Love your stuff!
Research on, frere Thomas. I have modeled my retirement portfolio for the last 45 years assuming a mere 6% ROI. I am now sitting on $1 million plus in cash wasting away at .015%. This is criminal. Of course, my investment accounts are doing substantially better (avg 12% earnings) these accounts are also exposed to periodic downturns. Risk is still subordinate to Returns. If you can find that Holy Grail 8% with no risk, I am subscribing to what you are selling.
Merry Christmas and God bless your new endeavors.
Bill, Tom, and Dan: I am (or was?) a subscriber to the Bonner-Denning newsletter. I know Tom has (or had?) a subscription investment service. I hate to sound confused, but would it be possible for you folks to explain the new subscription format and what’s become of the previous services. I’ve signed on to your monthly subscription to give it a try, but I’d like to know what else, if anything, is available. Thanks!
Hi Mark1 - Thanks for checking in and for continuing to keep up with Bill, Tom and Dan's latest venture. It's great to have you with us!
As Editor at Large for Bonner Private Research, I sat down with Dan Denning just this week to discuss what's ahead for the project... that is, what readers can expect from us in this new, advertisement-free format, how we're focusing on investment research (as opposed to spending our time running a large publishing corporation), and what tiers of membership will be available as we evolve.
That discussion will air as a podcast this Friday and will be available to all BPR members, free and paid, as a kind of public service announcement. Watch this space for more and, again, thanks for following along. Cheers!
I have a funny feeling about Nomi Prinz, too. Nothing substantial, but cautious.
Think: magellan midstream partners (8+% dividends)
tradingeconomics.com today reports:
"US stocks extended gains for the second session on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones climbing more than 150 points, and both the S&P and the Nasdaq up over 0.5% buoyed by upbeat economic data. Updated figures showed the US economy expanded by an annualized 2.3% in Q3, above second estimates of 2.1% and consumer confidence improved more than expected in December while existing home sales rose for the third month in November."
This reports that the US economy and house prices "expanded" less than US inflation 'expanded' resulting in "US stocks extended gains for the second session on Wednesday".
So the big inflation hole in the bucket is being ignored whilst the market goes up?
It's like driving ones car with a big hole in the radiator, until one comes to the inevitable overheated seized full stop.
I'm going to miss Tom's postcards. They were always fun reading.
In response to Tom's 8% investment return goal, the best way I have found to make 8% is to swap my US dollars for USDC (Circle is the company) coins which are a dollar pegged crypto and lend them on the Nexo platform, which is a solid billion dollar swiss company.
If you hold 10% of your account value in the NEXO token, they bump the rate and pay you 10% interest on your dollar pegged USDC and 7% on the NEXO tokens. US citizens can buy NEXO tokens on Hotbit exchange.
Additionally, 30% of the company profits go back to the NEXO token holders as dividends. The lending is asset backed and performed with AI so the loans are heavily collateralized. And there is no lockup.
I use a US based exchange as the fiat on ramp (Kracken or Binance.US) to wire my funds, then exchange to USDC and transfer to NEXO. It's the best, most liquid way to earn these types of rates.
Here is my referral link if anyone wants to set an account up. We each get $25 in free bitcoin if used.
https://nexo.io/ref/bohfvyfezk?src=android-link
Or you can go direct to Nexo, if more comfortable.
P.S. Mr. Bonner, I really love your Tacana and the Sunal is amazing as well. Thanks for the introduction to high altitude Argentine ink wines!
I would be VERY interested what you think of this article from Moneyweek: In praise of profits – Ed Yardeni’s stirring defence of capitalism
It is commonly held that the average American's income has not risen for decades. But in truth, real earnings have been rising by 1.5% since 1995. And that's down to one thing, says Max King: capitalism.
Max King author headshot
by: Max King
21 DEC 2021
Anti-capitalist demonstrators
Nothing has raised standards of living like capitalism has
© NIKLAS HALLE'N/AFP via Getty Images
“If you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes the truth” according to the saying widely, but wrongly, attributed to Joseph Goebbels.
It seems to be the basis for the widespread acceptance of many economic wisdoms which do not stand up to analysis.
For example, in The Sunday Times, hardly a bastion of “progressive” opinions, Matthew Syed recently wrote that “over the past 40 years, the median wage in America hasn’t risen a cent, once inflation is taken into account”.
This is repeated by commentators on both the left and right of the political spectrum, but there’s just one problem: it isn’t true. And it’s just one of a number of claims that Ed Yardeni refutes in his latest book, In Praise of Profits.
Income inequality is over-exaggerated – and it’s not necessarily a bad thing
In his new book, Ed Yardeni explains that this claim, that the median wage in America has not risen in decades, is based on an “extremely flawed August 2018 study by Pew Research”, later magnified by President Biden’s bizarre claim that wages are the lowest in 70 years. In fact, using the more reliable Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator, a measure of inflation based on changes in personal consumption, rather than the Consumer Price Index, real average hourly earnings have been increasing at a solid average annual rate of 1.5% since 1995.
Median real household income, “a big favourite of economic pessimists and political progressives”, was up by 9.2% between 2016 and 2019. Deflated by the CPI, the measure was up 24.4% since 1995; and by the PCE, up by 36%.
Moreover, the data excludes Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and other non-cash government benefits and takes no account of the falling size of households or rising participation in the workforce. Finally, the median household income survey is based on census data rather than hard data such as payroll statistics and tax returns.
Syed’s claim that “the top 1% of the population has increased its wealth faster than at any time since the founding of the republic” is on firmer ground but raises the question of why this matters. “Income inequality is an inherent consequence of capitalism”, writes Yardeni, “and capitalism causes the most income inequality during periods of prosperity. The rich do get richer but almost everyone’s standard of living improves during good times.”
Since wealth compounds, rising life expectancy increases inequality. “Most of the Forbes 400 tend to be older Americans.” As Mr Spock said in Star Trek: “live long and prosper.”
Wealth inequality, Yardeni agrees, has worsened slightly in recent years. But “constraining the ability of the wealthy to seize opportunities would affect the wellbeing of us all”. Economic inequality has been worsened by the Federal Reserve as the central bank’s “ultra-easy monetary policies in response to the pandemic sent the stock market to a record high and boosted the incomes of CEOs with pay packages heavily skewed towards stock compensation”.
Meanwhile, lots of households that depend on fixed-interest returns saw their incomes dive and the real value of bank deposits started to fall as inflation rose. This is not entrepreneurial capitalism, but its antithesis, crony capitalism.
Social mobility is more widespread than realised
Most analyses of income and wealth distribution over time ignore mobility or assume that it doesn’t exist. In fact, some of the rich get richer, some get poorer while some of the poor get richer.
Some of America’s oligarchs have middle-class backgrounds, some humble backgrounds, but few were born with a silver spoon in their mouth. “On balance,” Yardeni says, “the data strongly suggests that mobility is on the upside.”
Yardeni dismisses the notion that high profits are the result of low wages and warns that government attempts to lift wages could backfire. “The goal of any president should be to increase workers’ standard of living but nominal wages can only increase faster than prices if productivity rises”.
The Economic Policy Institute started claiming in the 1990s that pay had decoupled from prices, but Yardeni exposes serious flaws in its analysis. Productivity, he shows, moves in decade-long cycles, but, having slowed from an annual rate of 4% in 2003 to 0.6% in 2015, has since accelerated.
The myth of low productivity is the basis for diatribes against stock buybacks, which supposedly reward investors at the expense of productivity-enhancing investment. Yardeni shows that $5trn of buybacks between 2011 and 2019 only enhanced earnings per share by 1%. The rest offset the issuance of stock as compensation not just to senior staff but other employees as well. This incentive may have helped enhance productivity.
In his foreword, Yardeni quotes the economist David Ricardo; ”nothing contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits” and also Winston Churchill; “it’s a socialist idea that making profits is a vice. I consider the real vice is making losses”. He omitted the priceless quote from Karl Marx’s long-suffering wife Jenny: “I wish Karl would spend a little less time talking about capital and a little more accumulating it”.
Yardeni’s short and highly readable book, supplemented by tables and charts as evidence, is a powerful but well-argued antidote to much progressive thinking. Progressives have major achievements to their credit in terms of welfare and taxation, he says, and legitimate concerns about the corruption of crony capitalism – but “mission accomplished” is not and never will be part of their lexicon.