My favorite quote about the stock market for 4 decades is no longer true. My favorite quote was this:
“The stock market tends to do what is least expected, except when it doesn’t”.
My conviction that it is no longer true(if it indeed ever was) is driven by my belief that the market itself has become so manipulated, even by historical standards, that it is now nothing more than one giant manipulated PsyOp. It is so manipulated by the billionaire oligarchs and global financial operatives as to no longer have a life of its’ own. This will continue until the entire edifice comes crashing down, and the point here would be that it could take longer(possibly much longer) for that to happen than any clear headed person would expect. My thesis rests on the notion that historically the market always relied on free(and reasonably accurate) information to function in free market fashion. That foundation has been utterly destroyed. Everything is now propaganda and narratives and lies, all pushed by a cabal that is marching in lockstep. The thrust now is to fabricate reality, to manufacture truth, and failing that to disguise it, all to prevent the public from knowing what is going on and to get them to behave in herd fashion, as the oligarchs would have it. So the market is being artificially propped up by the likes of Blackrock, Calpers, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, CalSTRS, Citi Bank, BofA, US Treasury Department, NYC Retirement, Fidelity ..... and on and on, all of them. They all channel each other 24/7 and operate more or less on queue and in lockstep. It is not a free market functioning on free flowing and accurate information. It will collapse when they lose control of it, which they will. When is anyone’s guess.
And to our detriment, this statement is 100% accurate in almost every area of our Society and Culture, not just in the Financial hinterlands. The sooner we ALL realize that, the better chance we have to stop them in their tracks...
I do believe like Bill , sooner or later the recession will it the USA , it s already in Kiwi land and Germany , no way you have the biggest invert curve between the 10 and 2 years yield and no recession. . It came between 14 and 18 months from the deepest of the curve , next year it will eat the USA and then sped up everywhere ... patient is the wiser advice , do not listen to the sirènes songs .
Went out to San Diego a couple of weekends ago. Man, based on all the EXPENSIVE high-rise construction downtown, mega-crowds, packed restaurants, etc...well, you’d never guess by looking at all that, that economic calamity is lurking, will hit any day now.
Dear Bill, Joel, Dan and Tom - i became a subscriber only 3 months ago - and i'd like to take the opportunity after following your ideas since then, to make you a big compliment for your approach. I just retired and so your aproach seems to fit perfectly to me. And you gave me a complete new approach towards income, namely the option strategy. In these 3 months i could manage to generate around 6% income with dividends and option premiums, calculated on the roughly 30% shares, according to your recommendation (i overweighted PBR and EC, instead of underweighting them, ok). And not counted the appreciations in value of most of the shares you recommended. So i am really impressed how it worked out until now, thank you for that. And especially gratefull i am for detecting the option strategy. I knew by theory about that, but i thought this is only a thing for Pro's... and i did not think how easy it is finally with the right broker to do it. But it is also real work behind, for every option expiring you have to reevaluate the situation, being patient sometimes, until the right strike / price / duration can be realized. But i can only encourage everybody to try it out. But do it really only with shares you are comfortable to buy at strike level in case.
Finally, i deviate in one point from your asset allocation. I allocate more then 1% to crypto, around 5% actually, including some crypto shares as well. I would recommend Iris Energy (IREN) and Bitfarms (BITF) for those interested. These are Bitcoin Miners with attractive fundamentals by means of production and green energy usage. ... i loose my focus :-) actually i wanted just to say thank you! And keep going...
Good prose. Methinks you should take a break from GLOOM and DOOM. Some of us like to hear about the RANCH and the WINERY once in a while. Also the ORIGINARIOS and Argentina Politics. It takes the edge off the DOOM and GLOOM. Just Saying! Florida Jimmy.
Bill is an optimist compared to Jim “the sky is falling” Rickards. Regardless, maybe Bill thinks this is the time to drive home a warning rather than write about fluff. If it all came apart next week, we might be unhappy that Bill was telling us about extended Argentine famillias instead.
The warm water we frogs are swimming in and quietly enjoying, akin to some form of latter day home spa, is getting warmer by the day, from the markets with their burning energy and fired up heat sources.
Pity is our big pot, is perched above the licking flames, hot coals, coaxed and fanned by pyromaniacs, with a developed game plan for stewing frogs and grabbing the frogs hard earned lunch boxes for themselves.
Challenge is as pyro-toads, thus of a similar species, as they laugh about the naive stewed frogs, get bloated on frogs delicacies, they’ve no skills to avoid or control the wildfire they created, as the same flames gather momentum and scorch the toads abodes!
It’s good and well to avoid The Big Loss but how do you avoid The Big Tax grab once you have avoided the former? They can only tax those of us with anything left after the crash - and I’m afraid they know what you have and they’ll find a way to tax it -
I recently watched an interview with Chris MacIntosh from Capitalist Exploits (Recommended writing. It's spot on.) where Chris said the Australian government is enacting legislation whereby even if you leave Australia you will still be a tax resident for another 3 years.
You could take up residence in Malaysia where all offshore income is tax free and the standard of living is really good. Or perhaps Dubai....
Great question. BPR is noticeably light on Tax "defenses", to the point of not even considering them in their strategy apparently. My guess is the subject is not really in their wheelhouse, though many of us would at least like to see a "heads up" regarding the expected (and especially unexpected) implications the tax regime could have on the BPR system of investing...
I guess it becomes very complex since readers live in various countries. But finally the BPR approach is not completely different from other investing, just the asset allocation and the individual recomendations for specific assets is what makes the difference. Anybody should know how dividends, interests and capital gains are taxed in his country, or am i missing a point?
The option strategy is a special case of course. In my country the premiums received are treated like capital gains, and capital gains are tax free here (unless you qualify as a professional trader, what is a risk), so the premiums are as well.
Thanks - I look forward to your input on this disgusting decision. You would think congress should be making this decision NOT some deep swamp bureaucrats! Could congress overturn this stupid decision?
My wife and I attended two firework shows yesterday. One government sponsored and the other “an unorganized event” found on the way home from the first one.
I resisted pulling over to observe as much as I could, until I could not any longer.
Number 2 was wild, crazy and, quite frankly, more enjoyable. Just a bunch of families thrown together at last minute.
It became a competition and all just sat back enjoying it tremendously.
No. 1 was organized and short.
No. 2 was impromptu and long.
Needless to say, I don’t think I can “put the genie back in the bottle” after No. 2.
Who knows maybe MET or Modern Economic Theory is just like firework shows?
To answer Bill's comment today: His reasoning is exactly why I subscribe to BPR.
Furthermore this market looks like a run of the mill bear market rally. Of course it might not be. That's always a possibility. I just finished reading Barrie Wigmore's "The Crash and its Aftermath", a detailed account of many various markets following 1929. This current rise in stock price seems exactly like the rise in 1930. We'll see how it turns out.
I’m older than Bill and still have a memory of being a young broker in 1968 starting and never seeing the Dow make a new high for 15 years because of high inflation and rates.
Now with my life warranty running out I’m not interested in the home run but avoiding being call out on strikes or sliding into home😳Jerry
Bill.I think BPR's formula for safe guarding our principal is right on.Yes,since 2008,I have felt like chicken little screaming at my family and friends to get out of the stock market,because it should of crashed by now but it hasn't.but i still follow your formula and sleep sound at night.Thanks
As one who’s about to be 55, and moving ever closer to the open casket, I don’t mind missing a few popped champagne corks to keep my finances above ground. Enjoy Sicily and the wedding.
My favorite quote about the stock market for 4 decades is no longer true. My favorite quote was this:
“The stock market tends to do what is least expected, except when it doesn’t”.
My conviction that it is no longer true(if it indeed ever was) is driven by my belief that the market itself has become so manipulated, even by historical standards, that it is now nothing more than one giant manipulated PsyOp. It is so manipulated by the billionaire oligarchs and global financial operatives as to no longer have a life of its’ own. This will continue until the entire edifice comes crashing down, and the point here would be that it could take longer(possibly much longer) for that to happen than any clear headed person would expect. My thesis rests on the notion that historically the market always relied on free(and reasonably accurate) information to function in free market fashion. That foundation has been utterly destroyed. Everything is now propaganda and narratives and lies, all pushed by a cabal that is marching in lockstep. The thrust now is to fabricate reality, to manufacture truth, and failing that to disguise it, all to prevent the public from knowing what is going on and to get them to behave in herd fashion, as the oligarchs would have it. So the market is being artificially propped up by the likes of Blackrock, Calpers, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, CalSTRS, Citi Bank, BofA, US Treasury Department, NYC Retirement, Fidelity ..... and on and on, all of them. They all channel each other 24/7 and operate more or less on queue and in lockstep. It is not a free market functioning on free flowing and accurate information. It will collapse when they lose control of it, which they will. When is anyone’s guess.
I think you could also include gold in that mix.
Most definitely
"𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙪𝙨𝙩 𝙣𝙤𝙬 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙛𝙖𝙗𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮, 𝙩𝙤 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙪𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙧𝙪𝙩𝙝, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙖𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙜𝙪𝙞𝙨𝙚 𝙞𝙩, 𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙩𝙤 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙪𝙗𝙡𝙞𝙘 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙜𝙤𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙤 𝙜𝙚𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙢 𝙩𝙤 𝙗𝙚𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙙 𝙛𝙖𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙤𝙣, 𝙖𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙜𝙖𝙧𝙘𝙝𝙨 𝙬𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙞𝙩. "
Nail, meet Hammer.
And to our detriment, this statement is 100% accurate in almost every area of our Society and Culture, not just in the Financial hinterlands. The sooner we ALL realize that, the better chance we have to stop them in their tracks...
I do believe like Bill , sooner or later the recession will it the USA , it s already in Kiwi land and Germany , no way you have the biggest invert curve between the 10 and 2 years yield and no recession. . It came between 14 and 18 months from the deepest of the curve , next year it will eat the USA and then sped up everywhere ... patient is the wiser advice , do not listen to the sirènes songs .
Went out to San Diego a couple of weekends ago. Man, based on all the EXPENSIVE high-rise construction downtown, mega-crowds, packed restaurants, etc...well, you’d never guess by looking at all that, that economic calamity is lurking, will hit any day now.
...oh, almost forgot, JAM packed airports and flights, too!
Hi Sluggo -
As mentioned before, same thing here in HOTHOTHOT FLA...
Dear Bill, Joel, Dan and Tom - i became a subscriber only 3 months ago - and i'd like to take the opportunity after following your ideas since then, to make you a big compliment for your approach. I just retired and so your aproach seems to fit perfectly to me. And you gave me a complete new approach towards income, namely the option strategy. In these 3 months i could manage to generate around 6% income with dividends and option premiums, calculated on the roughly 30% shares, according to your recommendation (i overweighted PBR and EC, instead of underweighting them, ok). And not counted the appreciations in value of most of the shares you recommended. So i am really impressed how it worked out until now, thank you for that. And especially gratefull i am for detecting the option strategy. I knew by theory about that, but i thought this is only a thing for Pro's... and i did not think how easy it is finally with the right broker to do it. But it is also real work behind, for every option expiring you have to reevaluate the situation, being patient sometimes, until the right strike / price / duration can be realized. But i can only encourage everybody to try it out. But do it really only with shares you are comfortable to buy at strike level in case.
Finally, i deviate in one point from your asset allocation. I allocate more then 1% to crypto, around 5% actually, including some crypto shares as well. I would recommend Iris Energy (IREN) and Bitfarms (BITF) for those interested. These are Bitcoin Miners with attractive fundamentals by means of production and green energy usage. ... i loose my focus :-) actually i wanted just to say thank you! And keep going...
Best,
Marcel
Honesty! Good old fashioned honesty. Or, is it more like “perspective”.
We have heard half the experts say the economy is bad. And the other half say the economy is good.
Needless to say, we are confused!
In the meantime. The enormous worldwide debt grows exponentially.
Who pays that back?
Hi Mr. Withrow -
Gonna go out on a limb and say "your grandkids", if it gets paid back at all...
Good prose. Methinks you should take a break from GLOOM and DOOM. Some of us like to hear about the RANCH and the WINERY once in a while. Also the ORIGINARIOS and Argentina Politics. It takes the edge off the DOOM and GLOOM. Just Saying! Florida Jimmy.
Bill is an optimist compared to Jim “the sky is falling” Rickards. Regardless, maybe Bill thinks this is the time to drive home a warning rather than write about fluff. If it all came apart next week, we might be unhappy that Bill was telling us about extended Argentine famillias instead.
The warm water we frogs are swimming in and quietly enjoying, akin to some form of latter day home spa, is getting warmer by the day, from the markets with their burning energy and fired up heat sources.
Pity is our big pot, is perched above the licking flames, hot coals, coaxed and fanned by pyromaniacs, with a developed game plan for stewing frogs and grabbing the frogs hard earned lunch boxes for themselves.
Challenge is as pyro-toads, thus of a similar species, as they laugh about the naive stewed frogs, get bloated on frogs delicacies, they’ve no skills to avoid or control the wildfire they created, as the same flames gather momentum and scorch the toads abodes!
A trite analogy?
Perhaps or not really.
It’s good and well to avoid The Big Loss but how do you avoid The Big Tax grab once you have avoided the former? They can only tax those of us with anything left after the crash - and I’m afraid they know what you have and they’ll find a way to tax it -
I hope I’m wrong!!
I recently watched an interview with Chris MacIntosh from Capitalist Exploits (Recommended writing. It's spot on.) where Chris said the Australian government is enacting legislation whereby even if you leave Australia you will still be a tax resident for another 3 years.
You could take up residence in Malaysia where all offshore income is tax free and the standard of living is really good. Or perhaps Dubai....
Hi Mr. Conidi -
Great question. BPR is noticeably light on Tax "defenses", to the point of not even considering them in their strategy apparently. My guess is the subject is not really in their wheelhouse, though many of us would at least like to see a "heads up" regarding the expected (and especially unexpected) implications the tax regime could have on the BPR system of investing...
I guess it becomes very complex since readers live in various countries. But finally the BPR approach is not completely different from other investing, just the asset allocation and the individual recomendations for specific assets is what makes the difference. Anybody should know how dividends, interests and capital gains are taxed in his country, or am i missing a point?
The option strategy is a special case of course. In my country the premiums received are treated like capital gains, and capital gains are tax free here (unless you qualify as a professional trader, what is a risk), so the premiums are as well.
Looking forward to which company your firm recommends for the coming (?) copper boom.
Gene D.
Hi Mr. DeFouw -
Hopefully Dan and Crew will share some actionable intel after the pow-wow in Boca.
PS - Attendees be warned, we are having an EXCEPTIONALLY hot Summer so far in SFL...
Thanks - I look forward to your input on this disgusting decision. You would think congress should be making this decision NOT some deep swamp bureaucrats! Could congress overturn this stupid decision?
Your thoughts on the recent IRS ruling concerning inheritance for our children not being transferred at present cost.
Gene D
Oh by the way.
My wife and I attended two firework shows yesterday. One government sponsored and the other “an unorganized event” found on the way home from the first one.
I resisted pulling over to observe as much as I could, until I could not any longer.
Number 2 was wild, crazy and, quite frankly, more enjoyable. Just a bunch of families thrown together at last minute.
It became a competition and all just sat back enjoying it tremendously.
No. 1 was organized and short.
No. 2 was impromptu and long.
Needless to say, I don’t think I can “put the genie back in the bottle” after No. 2.
Who knows maybe MET or Modern Economic Theory is just like firework shows?
To answer Bill's comment today: His reasoning is exactly why I subscribe to BPR.
Furthermore this market looks like a run of the mill bear market rally. Of course it might not be. That's always a possibility. I just finished reading Barrie Wigmore's "The Crash and its Aftermath", a detailed account of many various markets following 1929. This current rise in stock price seems exactly like the rise in 1930. We'll see how it turns out.
I’m older than Bill and still have a memory of being a young broker in 1968 starting and never seeing the Dow make a new high for 15 years because of high inflation and rates.
Now with my life warranty running out I’m not interested in the home run but avoiding being call out on strikes or sliding into home😳Jerry
Bill.I think BPR's formula for safe guarding our principal is right on.Yes,since 2008,I have felt like chicken little screaming at my family and friends to get out of the stock market,because it should of crashed by now but it hasn't.but i still follow your formula and sleep sound at night.Thanks
As one who’s about to be 55, and moving ever closer to the open casket, I don’t mind missing a few popped champagne corks to keep my finances above ground. Enjoy Sicily and the wedding.
You have had to much Bear company to do a determined south move.