We are all part of these patterns, not the architects or controllers of them. When a child is born, you might as well alert the funeral parlor. There is no doubt where this will lead.
My favorite might be Whiskey & Gunpowder, but of course Bonner has taught me well. It will be Precious Metals with a small allocation to whiskey & gunpowder to balance the portfolio.
Same here and with a smaller investment into critical minerals as opposed to my investment in gold, silver and platinum. I will continue with the 21 year old Bushmill and plenty of lead darts!!!
I was interrupted before I finished. Everyone’s life from now and for all eternity depends on what you do with Jesus the Christ. The lack of understanding is shown with the statement made’’since Jesus Christ’’. There is no since, He is the great’’I am’’, He is , is,and is to come. With Christ there is no time, no before, no after, no since. I have thought and studied no time in great detail and am convinced that God created our minds with limited ability to understand and comprehend no time. Everything in our life on earth is on a timeline, the hour, day, year, your complete life on earth. People worry about where they’ll be between the time they die and judgement day. Another misunderstanding because there is no until after you die. If I were to drop dead today I’m in the same moment as when Abraham or Elijah or anyone else who ‘’fell asleep’’is. Too deep for us to understand but way to important to ignore.I’ll just trust in the Lord Jesus Christ,He has it taken care of.
Bill writes, "We are all part of these patterns, not the architects or controllers of them. When a child is born, you might as well alert the funeral parlor. There is no doubt where this will lead — to lilies and the grave. It doesn’t matter what we think or what we want. We get what the pattern gives us, not what we want."
Not to nitpick too much, but this is "determinist" thinking - that we don't have any control over our lives. Nothing could be further from the truth. Certainly, there are some things out of our control. But there are many things we can control. We are in the situation we are in because of bad ideas controlling government policy. Plain and simple. These bad ideas have always been with us, but the latest iteration affecting the USA is the Progressive movement - a collectivist ideology that railed against individual rights as selfish and that the citizen's life should be dedicated to the state/country/common good (pick one). This ideology took over our schools for decades and the results can be seen today in the ideas espoused by left leaning progressive politicians. That is, totally irrational thinking in terms of economics, energy, environment, gender, etc. Irrational because their thinking has no connection to the fundamental facts of reality.
So, it may seem we are just part of the patterns Bongo Bill writes about. But only if we allow it to be so.
Mr. Gallien, So true. Bill doesn't like to blame the folks for the problems the U.S. faces. He writes like they are all innocent lambs led to the slaughter by devious politicians and media people. Yet in reading and subscribing to many of his colleagues' newsletters over the previous two decades (e.g. his good friend Addison Wiggin; Jim Rickards; Porter Stansberry; Jeff Brown; Nomi Prins; etc.), they don't have any problem placing blame on the folks as well as their so-called leaders. Maybe someday Bill will explain why he thinks this way.
Bill will never explain why he thinks this way because his thought process doesn't go that deep. He is not stupid or ignorant, but his thinking is predominately on the surface when it comes to fundamental philosophical issues. For example, it baffles me that some of the bizarre leftist politicians are reelected over and over. Take AOC as an example. You would think that after her first term, the voters would realize they made a mistake and select someone else. But no. Either they are not paying attention, or more likely, they actually believe the idiotic ideas she espouses.
"When a child is born, you might as well alert the funeral parlor."
-
But...Mr. Bonner, there is so much in between, and so much joy yet to be realized, so many things to create, so many lives to be involved, to grow, to learn.
-
...and then there are those that are already "alerting" the funeral parlor...
Bongo Bill is too ignorant to differentiate between those things we can control and those we can't. He puts everything under "those we can't control". We are just pawns in the march of history as if history is inevitable. As the great philosopher Ayn Rand elaborated - history is created by ideas (and, of course, how those ideas are acted on).
Bill, your knowledge and understanding is impressive on most subjects, such as government,monetary systems and many practical applications of life. I’ve appreciated your writing and have learned much. I do believe however,you seem to lack in the very most important subject in any human life, that is what will a man do with Jesus Christ. Will one believe on Him and will that belief one claims have be validated with practice in one’s life with what Jesus taught (Matt. 7:24). All of our eternal lives here and beyond
I would like to see our Bonner team expound on the overall subject of "export taxes".
The over-simplification of Trumps tariffs adding to inflation on what is commonly understood as a "one to one" basis. Effectively, the zeitgeist that a 15% tariff on imports will present a 15% inflation driven cost to US consumers has been thoroughly debunked by an emerging reality.
Rather than simply ignoring the reality that has emerged a more detailed discussion would seem to be in order, particularly in this forum.
One could begin this discussion with a demonstration of what many foreign governments use as added layers of taxation, such as VAT taxes, which allow said governments an avenue to reduce export taxes, while still being subject to Trumps tariffs, in order to maintain a competitive position in our consumer markets.
Regulatory hurdles erected as barriers to American or European entry into foreign consumer markets are ripe for discussion as well.
In Australia we have a GST which is the same as a VAT. We do not have any state taxes on goods. The states are not permitted to impose taxes. FWIW we cannot advertise any price in any store or restaurant etc without displaying the included taxes.
By law the GST is apportioned and given back to the states to spend (waste). Unfortunately there is always the problem of which state gets how much. It is not accorded to how much is collected in each state.
Any increase in GST would be a federal decision but that would not be done without a taking it to an election . Not doing that would be political suicide.
Unfortunately GST is added at every stage of manufacture though credits are given for gst paid on inputs. The only federal tax is fuel excise which is about 30% of the cost of a litre of fuel. Ironically gst is paid on the excise so you get a tax on a tax. Fresh food is exempt from taxes as is most healthcare and of course banking transactions That fix was in from the start.
Trump put a tariff, 25%, on big rigs. I drove a truck, over interstates, in 1976.
All were made in the US. Remember, “Made like a Mack truck.”
Now they have ten different factories in Mexico and Canada; NAFTA was great. Free trade is great; one of those cycles we have no control over that benefit the few that own our lives and convince us it is good, no use working with hope, creating and self satisfaction.
Yea but one of the patterns is to buy the dip and it has been very long running and rather convincing? Another is that main stream media doubles down on TDS. Another is that covid is more than a ordinary flu and vaccines will save you from problems with it. Another is that politicians have our best interest in mind, they are handing out a lot of free gifts paid for by our taxes. Relying on the CEO of Citadel is like asking Pfizer if vaccines are saving lives.
After recovering from Sars-Covid 25000 (there were 3000 mutations at the end of 2019) I can tell you it is worse than normal flu. Still can't taste food 1//2 of the time and smell is working about 1/3 of the time and that's after 1 year and 8 1/2 months.
When you write like this, Bill, no one is better. My question remains. Do we buy when the Dow/Gold reaches 5, before or after gold is revalued to $5,000, $10, 000 or higher per ounce??? Obviously, that is assuming we have gold or gold stocks to sell, at that time.
Kenneth, good question. My concern is the World is a-changin' rapidly as Bobby Dylan would say. It is no longer a unipolar world and the West (US/EU/UK) are no longer the world's hegemony nor is the US$ the trusted fiat currency. The EU/UK are almost bankrupt and with trillions in US$ based debt including untold amount in derivatives, the crash is going to be harsh, dark, and ugly. The non-West world is rapidly turning away and markets/supply chains are being reconstructed. The West is nowhere near self-sufficient. The power of the U.S. after WWII was its manufacturing base and that has gone away. It sits now in the East - primarily China. So economy power is changing no matter the amount or size of tariffs/sanctions. So, buying the U.S. market at a Dow/Gold ratio of 5 might not be a bargain. I get it - gold is a lump and provides no dividends. Now silver is a horse of a different color. So what to do, when to do it.........questions for the ages and everyone has an opinion. Good Luck in whatever your choice turns out to be. Ol' Billy Boy may just sit in Salta and drink Malbec from the high country.
The thing is that Asia has no supply chain issues. No Suez canal and Houthi hypersonic missiles to navigate. Great rail networks and the roads are pretty good too.
They are operating on a more cooperative and collaborative model, sans the hubris and belligerence of the West.
Chinese small cap stocks are trading at a P/E of around 5-8.
The weather is good and the food is great. People are friendly and happy and not caught up in gender wars or any of the other BS that besets the Western hegemons.
What's not to like?
Asia is my idea of a good investment, with benefits!!
Jesus said to Nicodemus: "He who believes in Him is not condemned; but he who does not believe is condemned already, because he has not believed in the name of the only begotten Son of God." John 3:18 Keep looking up!
Great piece, Bill. As always, a timely reminder that the quest to outsmart nature usually ends in nature’s laughter.
Before we start reversing necrosis with a pill, we might try reversing the habits that caused it in the first place. Most people today are living below physiological baseline. They are chronically dehydrated, over-medicated, and under-circulated. You don’t need a microscope to see it. It’s in the gray skin, the low energy, the cold hands, the brain fog.
When my 93-year-old mother went into the hospital at the height of COVID with “Acute Kidney Injury,” they stopped her medications and gave her water. That was it. A few days later: kidneys fine, back to the nursing home. Turns out the cure for “acute” was simply chronic neglect.
We’ve medicalized thirst, pathologized salt, and traded a few millimeters of mercury on the blood-pressure gauge for the slow suffocation of our organs. The kidneys are the canaries. They fail first, quietly. And when they do, the biotech industry races to invent another molecule to “reverse” what a few glasses of water might have prevented. Including the biggee, Cardio Vascular Disease.
Hydration is not glamorous. You can’t patent it or sell it in a glossy vial. But it’s the single most accessible, least expensive form of preventive medicine on Earth. Before we sign up for anti-necrosis trials, maybe we should sign up for a refill.
So in answer to your poll, I'd vote, access to clean drinking water. And a cabin to go with it. Deep in the woods.
Dan / Bill; Silly boys...the trade is fascist / oligarch...i.e. you need to be watching Trump and his cronies brokers and whatever they're buying you need to be buying...doesn't get any simpler than that
Some whiskies that reviewers and competitions are calling “top tier”:
Kavalan Solist Fino Sherry Single Cask Strength (Taiwan) — named “Whisky of the Year” at the 2025 International Whisky Competition.
A. Smith Bowman Cask Strength Batch #4 (Virginia bourbon) — scored ~97.01; awarded Best Bourbon & Best American Whiskey in a major U.S. competition.
Food & Wine
The Notch Nantucket Island 12-Year Old Single Malt — won “Best American Single Malt” at the 2025 IWSC North America.
Food & Wine
Indri’s Diwali Collector’s Edition 2025 Marsala Cask Finish (Indian single malt) — named “Best World Whisky” at the Las Vegas Global Spirits Awards 2025.
Our shock at an ever increasing stock market always surprises me. Every month a never ending faucet of money is filtered through Blackrock, Vanguard and other funnels into the stockmarket from the retirement contributions of every fireman, policeman, teacher, teamster, autoworker, etc.
Only a catastrophe can stop this, not that that is not possible.
My favorite might be Whiskey & Gunpowder, but of course Bonner has taught me well. It will be Precious Metals with a small allocation to whiskey & gunpowder to balance the portfolio.
Same here and with a smaller investment into critical minerals as opposed to my investment in gold, silver and platinum. I will continue with the 21 year old Bushmill and plenty of lead darts!!!
I was interrupted before I finished. Everyone’s life from now and for all eternity depends on what you do with Jesus the Christ. The lack of understanding is shown with the statement made’’since Jesus Christ’’. There is no since, He is the great’’I am’’, He is , is,and is to come. With Christ there is no time, no before, no after, no since. I have thought and studied no time in great detail and am convinced that God created our minds with limited ability to understand and comprehend no time. Everything in our life on earth is on a timeline, the hour, day, year, your complete life on earth. People worry about where they’ll be between the time they die and judgement day. Another misunderstanding because there is no until after you die. If I were to drop dead today I’m in the same moment as when Abraham or Elijah or anyone else who ‘’fell asleep’’is. Too deep for us to understand but way to important to ignore.I’ll just trust in the Lord Jesus Christ,He has it taken care of.
Amen brother
Stacking those other precious metals, lead and brass as well=) Plus a little more 00 buck just for giggles!
Yep!
Bill writes, "We are all part of these patterns, not the architects or controllers of them. When a child is born, you might as well alert the funeral parlor. There is no doubt where this will lead — to lilies and the grave. It doesn’t matter what we think or what we want. We get what the pattern gives us, not what we want."
Not to nitpick too much, but this is "determinist" thinking - that we don't have any control over our lives. Nothing could be further from the truth. Certainly, there are some things out of our control. But there are many things we can control. We are in the situation we are in because of bad ideas controlling government policy. Plain and simple. These bad ideas have always been with us, but the latest iteration affecting the USA is the Progressive movement - a collectivist ideology that railed against individual rights as selfish and that the citizen's life should be dedicated to the state/country/common good (pick one). This ideology took over our schools for decades and the results can be seen today in the ideas espoused by left leaning progressive politicians. That is, totally irrational thinking in terms of economics, energy, environment, gender, etc. Irrational because their thinking has no connection to the fundamental facts of reality.
So, it may seem we are just part of the patterns Bongo Bill writes about. But only if we allow it to be so.
Mr. Gallien, So true. Bill doesn't like to blame the folks for the problems the U.S. faces. He writes like they are all innocent lambs led to the slaughter by devious politicians and media people. Yet in reading and subscribing to many of his colleagues' newsletters over the previous two decades (e.g. his good friend Addison Wiggin; Jim Rickards; Porter Stansberry; Jeff Brown; Nomi Prins; etc.), they don't have any problem placing blame on the folks as well as their so-called leaders. Maybe someday Bill will explain why he thinks this way.
Bill will never explain why he thinks this way because his thought process doesn't go that deep. He is not stupid or ignorant, but his thinking is predominately on the surface when it comes to fundamental philosophical issues. For example, it baffles me that some of the bizarre leftist politicians are reelected over and over. Take AOC as an example. You would think that after her first term, the voters would realize they made a mistake and select someone else. But no. Either they are not paying attention, or more likely, they actually believe the idiotic ideas she espouses.
Did you ever think that they might just actually be dumbbells?????
"When a child is born, you might as well alert the funeral parlor."
-
But...Mr. Bonner, there is so much in between, and so much joy yet to be realized, so many things to create, so many lives to be involved, to grow, to learn.
-
...and then there are those that are already "alerting" the funeral parlor...
Bongo Bill is too ignorant to differentiate between those things we can control and those we can't. He puts everything under "those we can't control". We are just pawns in the march of history as if history is inevitable. As the great philosopher Ayn Rand elaborated - history is created by ideas (and, of course, how those ideas are acted on).
...fully agreed!
Ultimately pessimists are under the control of optimists...
There are no “tie rods” in a combustion engine. Tie rods are in the suspension. Just saying
Probably meant con rods...
Bill, your knowledge and understanding is impressive on most subjects, such as government,monetary systems and many practical applications of life. I’ve appreciated your writing and have learned much. I do believe however,you seem to lack in the very most important subject in any human life, that is what will a man do with Jesus Christ. Will one believe on Him and will that belief one claims have be validated with practice in one’s life with what Jesus taught (Matt. 7:24). All of our eternal lives here and beyond
I would like to see our Bonner team expound on the overall subject of "export taxes".
The over-simplification of Trumps tariffs adding to inflation on what is commonly understood as a "one to one" basis. Effectively, the zeitgeist that a 15% tariff on imports will present a 15% inflation driven cost to US consumers has been thoroughly debunked by an emerging reality.
Rather than simply ignoring the reality that has emerged a more detailed discussion would seem to be in order, particularly in this forum.
One could begin this discussion with a demonstration of what many foreign governments use as added layers of taxation, such as VAT taxes, which allow said governments an avenue to reduce export taxes, while still being subject to Trumps tariffs, in order to maintain a competitive position in our consumer markets.
Regulatory hurdles erected as barriers to American or European entry into foreign consumer markets are ripe for discussion as well.
...VATs facilitate hidden clandestine taxation, they are nefarious... ask any of the consumers forced to participate in the schemes...
In Australia we have a GST which is the same as a VAT. We do not have any state taxes on goods. The states are not permitted to impose taxes. FWIW we cannot advertise any price in any store or restaurant etc without displaying the included taxes.
By law the GST is apportioned and given back to the states to spend (waste). Unfortunately there is always the problem of which state gets how much. It is not accorded to how much is collected in each state.
GST seems to be merely a 10% sales tax.
VAT's accrue taxes from the initial manifestation of manufacture through to the retail shelf, collecting taxes at every "value added" step.
The state can increase the tax on each "value added" step independent of the others...
... I assume you still pay a Federal sales tax on top of the GST?
Who decides when it's time to increase the GST?
Any increase in GST would be a federal decision but that would not be done without a taking it to an election . Not doing that would be political suicide.
Unfortunately GST is added at every stage of manufacture though credits are given for gst paid on inputs. The only federal tax is fuel excise which is about 30% of the cost of a litre of fuel. Ironically gst is paid on the excise so you get a tax on a tax. Fresh food is exempt from taxes as is most healthcare and of course banking transactions That fix was in from the start.
It seems a VAT is a tariff.
Trump put a tariff, 25%, on big rigs. I drove a truck, over interstates, in 1976.
All were made in the US. Remember, “Made like a Mack truck.”
Now they have ten different factories in Mexico and Canada; NAFTA was great. Free trade is great; one of those cycles we have no control over that benefit the few that own our lives and convince us it is good, no use working with hope, creating and self satisfaction.
Bill joins the mantra…incessantly.
Who would want to live forever?
VATs are not tariffs... not even close.
Tariffs are disclosed burdens usually paid by the importer.
It's a choice if domestic products are available.
Tariffs only directly affect foreign exchanges.
VAT's are clandestine taxes paid by everyone.
Yea but one of the patterns is to buy the dip and it has been very long running and rather convincing? Another is that main stream media doubles down on TDS. Another is that covid is more than a ordinary flu and vaccines will save you from problems with it. Another is that politicians have our best interest in mind, they are handing out a lot of free gifts paid for by our taxes. Relying on the CEO of Citadel is like asking Pfizer if vaccines are saving lives.
After recovering from Sars-Covid 25000 (there were 3000 mutations at the end of 2019) I can tell you it is worse than normal flu. Still can't taste food 1//2 of the time and smell is working about 1/3 of the time and that's after 1 year and 8 1/2 months.
When you write like this, Bill, no one is better. My question remains. Do we buy when the Dow/Gold reaches 5, before or after gold is revalued to $5,000, $10, 000 or higher per ounce??? Obviously, that is assuming we have gold or gold stocks to sell, at that time.
Kenneth, good question. My concern is the World is a-changin' rapidly as Bobby Dylan would say. It is no longer a unipolar world and the West (US/EU/UK) are no longer the world's hegemony nor is the US$ the trusted fiat currency. The EU/UK are almost bankrupt and with trillions in US$ based debt including untold amount in derivatives, the crash is going to be harsh, dark, and ugly. The non-West world is rapidly turning away and markets/supply chains are being reconstructed. The West is nowhere near self-sufficient. The power of the U.S. after WWII was its manufacturing base and that has gone away. It sits now in the East - primarily China. So economy power is changing no matter the amount or size of tariffs/sanctions. So, buying the U.S. market at a Dow/Gold ratio of 5 might not be a bargain. I get it - gold is a lump and provides no dividends. Now silver is a horse of a different color. So what to do, when to do it.........questions for the ages and everyone has an opinion. Good Luck in whatever your choice turns out to be. Ol' Billy Boy may just sit in Salta and drink Malbec from the high country.
The thing is that Asia has no supply chain issues. No Suez canal and Houthi hypersonic missiles to navigate. Great rail networks and the roads are pretty good too.
They are operating on a more cooperative and collaborative model, sans the hubris and belligerence of the West.
Chinese small cap stocks are trading at a P/E of around 5-8.
The weather is good and the food is great. People are friendly and happy and not caught up in gender wars or any of the other BS that besets the Western hegemons.
What's not to like?
Asia is my idea of a good investment, with benefits!!
Jesus said to Nicodemus: "He who believes in Him is not condemned; but he who does not believe is condemned already, because he has not believed in the name of the only begotten Son of God." John 3:18 Keep looking up!
Great piece, Bill. As always, a timely reminder that the quest to outsmart nature usually ends in nature’s laughter.
Before we start reversing necrosis with a pill, we might try reversing the habits that caused it in the first place. Most people today are living below physiological baseline. They are chronically dehydrated, over-medicated, and under-circulated. You don’t need a microscope to see it. It’s in the gray skin, the low energy, the cold hands, the brain fog.
When my 93-year-old mother went into the hospital at the height of COVID with “Acute Kidney Injury,” they stopped her medications and gave her water. That was it. A few days later: kidneys fine, back to the nursing home. Turns out the cure for “acute” was simply chronic neglect.
https://lkandia.blogspot.com/2020/12/how-93-year-old-woman-dehydrated-and.html
We’ve medicalized thirst, pathologized salt, and traded a few millimeters of mercury on the blood-pressure gauge for the slow suffocation of our organs. The kidneys are the canaries. They fail first, quietly. And when they do, the biotech industry races to invent another molecule to “reverse” what a few glasses of water might have prevented. Including the biggee, Cardio Vascular Disease.
Part 1 - https://lucaskandia.substack.com/p/the-hidden-foundation-how-chronic
Part 2 - https://lucaskandia.substack.com/p/the-master-switch-part-ii-acute-vs
Hydration is not glamorous. You can’t patent it or sell it in a glossy vial. But it’s the single most accessible, least expensive form of preventive medicine on Earth. Before we sign up for anti-necrosis trials, maybe we should sign up for a refill.
So in answer to your poll, I'd vote, access to clean drinking water. And a cabin to go with it. Deep in the woods.
Dan / Bill; Silly boys...the trade is fascist / oligarch...i.e. you need to be watching Trump and his cronies brokers and whatever they're buying you need to be buying...doesn't get any simpler than that
I have allready bought gunpowder, i think i need whisky.
Some whiskies that reviewers and competitions are calling “top tier”:
Kavalan Solist Fino Sherry Single Cask Strength (Taiwan) — named “Whisky of the Year” at the 2025 International Whisky Competition.
A. Smith Bowman Cask Strength Batch #4 (Virginia bourbon) — scored ~97.01; awarded Best Bourbon & Best American Whiskey in a major U.S. competition.
Food & Wine
The Notch Nantucket Island 12-Year Old Single Malt — won “Best American Single Malt” at the 2025 IWSC North America.
Food & Wine
Indri’s Diwali Collector’s Edition 2025 Marsala Cask Finish (Indian single malt) — named “Best World Whisky” at the Las Vegas Global Spirits Awards 2025.
And, for us cheap peons there is always Fireball.
Good one, Bill, thank you.
Our shock at an ever increasing stock market always surprises me. Every month a never ending faucet of money is filtered through Blackrock, Vanguard and other funnels into the stockmarket from the retirement contributions of every fireman, policeman, teacher, teamster, autoworker, etc.
Only a catastrophe can stop this, not that that is not possible.