Your description of a change in the long term primary trend is spot on as is the contribution of existing housing problems to economic decline in the short term. An excellent description on Danielle Park’s juggling dynamite website provides a convincing description of the housing market being a leading indicator of coming recession, unlike jobs and inflation being lagging indicators. Specifically, the article shows how declining VOLUME of new house sales has preceded most recessions since WWII. Much more in the article with excellent graphs showing above. Love your concise style.
You can only get this type of aberration with government intervention. Please don't embarrass yourself by claiming this is a byproduct of Capitalism. Yet another gift from our self-professed Expert Class :-)
Interesting comments. I once met Henry Kaufman at Salomon Brothers and asked his opinion about the Kondratieff Wave cycle. He responded saying such a cycle likely exists. He went on saying don’t try to trade it because its countertrends will wipe you out. Sage advise.
What's going on with Chick-fil-A's work-for-food barter system? One North Carolina store advertised rush hour "volunteer" drive thru positions, without pay, instead providing free sandwiches.
When people get hungry or fearful, they get angry, very angry!! Would not want that bunch looking for my hide! Just sayin'.
Don Harrell
Your description of a change in the long term primary trend is spot on as is the contribution of existing housing problems to economic decline in the short term. An excellent description on Danielle Park’s juggling dynamite website provides a convincing description of the housing market being a leading indicator of coming recession, unlike jobs and inflation being lagging indicators. Specifically, the article shows how declining VOLUME of new house sales has preceded most recessions since WWII. Much more in the article with excellent graphs showing above. Love your concise style.
Nothing to see here:
30 Year Bond - 3.01% Yield - Inverted
10 Year Note - 2.75% Yield - Inverted
7 Year Note - 2.82% Yield - Inverted
5 Year Note - 2.84% Yield - Inverted
3 Year Note - 3.02% Yield - Inverted
2 Year Note - 3.03% Yield
You can only get this type of aberration with government intervention. Please don't embarrass yourself by claiming this is a byproduct of Capitalism. Yet another gift from our self-professed Expert Class :-)
Interesting comments. I once met Henry Kaufman at Salomon Brothers and asked his opinion about the Kondratieff Wave cycle. He responded saying such a cycle likely exists. He went on saying don’t try to trade it because its countertrends will wipe you out. Sage advise.
1914…1939…2023…I hear the war drums beating…what better way to get rid of millions of unemployed and bring in a new world order? Been here before 🤔
How about another black swan? It could be the tame beginnings of this year’s hurricane season. Can our oil markets handle an interruption?
As famous Detroit radio jock JP McCarthy (God rest his sou) once said, "it's not about the money, it's the amount."
What's going on with Chick-fil-A's work-for-food barter system? One North Carolina store advertised rush hour "volunteer" drive thru positions, without pay, instead providing free sandwiches.