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Don Harrell's avatar

When people get hungry or fearful, they get angry, very angry!! Would not want that bunch looking for my hide! Just sayin'.

Don Harrell

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Gord Richards's avatar

Your description of a change in the long term primary trend is spot on as is the contribution of existing housing problems to economic decline in the short term. An excellent description on Danielle Park’s juggling dynamite website provides a convincing description of the housing market being a leading indicator of coming recession, unlike jobs and inflation being lagging indicators. Specifically, the article shows how declining VOLUME of new house sales has preceded most recessions since WWII. Much more in the article with excellent graphs showing above. Love your concise style.

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Craig Whitfield's avatar

Nothing to see here:

30 Year Bond - 3.01% Yield - Inverted

10 Year Note - 2.75% Yield - Inverted

7 Year Note - 2.82% Yield - Inverted

5 Year Note - 2.84% Yield - Inverted

3 Year Note - 3.02% Yield - Inverted

2 Year Note - 3.03% Yield

You can only get this type of aberration with government intervention. Please don't embarrass yourself by claiming this is a byproduct of Capitalism. Yet another gift from our self-professed Expert Class :-)

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Aug 2, 2022
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Craig Whitfield's avatar

Yup, the Feds set the rates at the lowest rung of the ladder and then manipulate the upper rungs with money printing. If we ever get an audit of the Fed we'll get to see how they manipulate the price of gold as well. Can't have competition in a Fascist Economy :-)

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Aug 3, 2022
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Craig Whitfield's avatar

The numbers I shared are for U.S. government debt. The Fed's been the primary market maker for government debt for quite some time through its quantitative easing policy. They print paper buy the government debt and like magic the yield drops. When you have access to the printing press you can manipulate the price of any asset. An audit of the Fed would settle all the gold price manipulation talk, but they're not having any of it. You know the retort; "national security issues." We've been walking this earth long enough to know: "where there's smoke there's fire." People are beginning to wake up and see the government for what it is. I thoroughly enjoyed watching their credibility get completely obliterated from the "Covid came from a Wet Market" lie. An audit of the Fed would be the end of the Fed :-)

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Aug 3, 2022Edited
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Craig Whitfield's avatar

Even the apparatchiks at the Fed call it "Yield Curve Control." :-)

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Michael Conway's avatar

Interesting comments. I once met Henry Kaufman at Salomon Brothers and asked his opinion about the Kondratieff Wave cycle. He responded saying such a cycle likely exists. He went on saying don’t try to trade it because its countertrends will wipe you out. Sage advise.

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Steve L's avatar

1914…1939…2023…I hear the war drums beating…what better way to get rid of millions of unemployed and bring in a new world order? Been here before 🤔

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James Twmann's avatar

How about another black swan? It could be the tame beginnings of this year’s hurricane season. Can our oil markets handle an interruption?

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Michael C's avatar

As famous Detroit radio jock JP McCarthy (God rest his sou) once said, "it's not about the money, it's the amount."

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William Powell's avatar

What's going on with Chick-fil-A's work-for-food barter system? One North Carolina store advertised rush hour "volunteer" drive thru positions, without pay, instead providing free sandwiches.

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