That is why we spend so much effort trying to avoid the Big Loss. They’re always bigger than you think. You have $1 million in your account. The market goes down and you lose money.
I decoupled my IRA from a Dustodian providing 1.5% or less each year then personally investing in real estate, stocks and crypto, an investment banker warned me "90% of retail traders go to zero and this is what funds market gains for the rest of us".
I think your letter today points to the fact that our best "potential" protection for our money is to be invested in commodities that everyone needs to live. Things that are inverse to the USD. I've been reading Stansberry Research since 2008 (Porter Stansberry, Doc Effrig, Dan Ferris and others) and their analysis of solid long term investments has been good. Rich people over the years own the basics, gold, energy, timber, farmland plus others. NO I WON'T GET RICH FAST, but as the USD goes down, these basic commodities will always be valuable.
I have been looking, unsuccessfully, for a suitable investment for our cash since about 2012. 2010-2012 we bought single family homes only to protect our cash from inflation. Unfortunately, since then the state of CA has turned being a landlord in CA into a living hell. A now unprofitable living hell I might add. They have made laws telling all tenants that it is OK to steal from your landlord, and to destroy his property, simply because he has more money than you do! Nothing like buying votes with OPM.
In a world where every possible investment is insanely overpriced the only thing that makes any sense to me is to stay in T-Bills and collect interest that barely keeps up with inflation. Loaning money to the most bankrupt entity in the history of mankind does not exactly feel safe either!
I'm in thr process of moving my real-estate investments selling my rentals here in the US and moving thst money to investment rentals on the beaches of Costa Rica. Building a house(s) over looking the Pacific Ocean too. My renters here in Georgia have become entitled, taxes are going through the roof and insurance is outrageous. So I'm trying my luck in Costa Rica before the SHTF here in the US. I seem to be the lone wolf on this idea as each of my acquaintances just stare at me without comment when I mention moving my US investments out to Costa Rica. Plans are to start 6 months out and 6 months back in the US as long as it's still livable.
There is no suitable place for the little guy investor. I bought and renovated out of pocket 30 rental units along with 5 single family homes on one block in Philadelphia. 100% owner financed. It was the best of times, but the City came to realize housing providers aka "Greedy Suburban Landlords" are easy to fleece. After 5 years of watching rent increases follow tax increases I sold the entire lot to one investor except for the private homes.
When I invested in the Philly, eviction for nonpayment was a 40 day process, currently it is a one year process. The landlord will not be granted the back rent but a few months of rent. Tenants are assigned free lawyers and these are all socialist and former tenants with blood dripping from their teeth. I'm now fully invested in the suburbs where the taxes are high but the rents are high also, while the regulation of housing in my area is laissez-faire.
What if the purpose of the OBBB 100% first year investment writeoff is to allow these big spenders to show great earnings when their data centers are put in service? No depreciation expense would make earnings look as good as an early investment in Anthropic. Never mind that debt service will eat the cash.
T- bills are the most liquid investment… wait to buy gold…. When the market corrects … gold gets liquidated with everything else… patience grasshopper…. Markets are not quantitative absolutes…only probabilities… MG
Go long on both gold and silver, a minimum time frame of the Jan15 27 option chain and finance the purchase of one’s long positions by selling bull puts utilizing the March31 27 option chains. My thoughts, there is money to be made with this strategy, of course there is risk but life is a risk!!
As of 9am Eastern, 65% of these readers believe gold is the best investment. That's why we are all trying to avoid! A bunch of old foggies trying to hold onto what we have. From what I read in the comments over time there is a lot of experience speaking. Is that artificial intelligence speaking or just gut feel? After years of analysis, varying opinions and computer programmer's creations and big hype from the "marketing geniuses of the world" I'm most comfortable with gut feel.
I'm very thankful for Bill, Tom and Dan's obsession with the avalanche, or "big loss." You guys keep peering across the valley, at the ski slope, listening for the dynamite blast, or a natural trigger, which will bring the inevitable. Pity the skiers over there, who only see bright sunshine and powder snow.
Does anyone have any views on buying P&C Insurers such as Chubb (who trade bonds on their float) as an alternative to treasuries/cash- Satnsberry likes this for his permanent portfolio but no word from BPR on it?
I had read something about the insurance companies being heavily invested in the AI build out. A question to AI itself produced this:, "Property and Casualty (P&C) insurers like Chubb are heavily involved in the AI rollout, and their investment portfolios are deeply exposed to AI corporate bonds, data center debt, and related infrastructure assets. However, their involvement is complex and spans multiple areas of their business"
So looks like if you're going to invest in P&C you should read the prospectuses carefully.
Hmm.. I couldn't find any specific percentages for ai bonds, private equity in ai for Chubb- but did find 20% is invested in mortgage debt. So you're basically buying an opaque soup of more speculative corporate bonds and loans.
Thanks to Dennis T. for his reply. We are in the suburbs of LA, Riverside County. It is just a matter of time before the communists come to the suburbs. IE: I would not be a landlord in the county of Los Angeles for all the tea in China! The list of overlapping and contradictory state, county, and city laws is beyond the scope of this discussion. Let's just say you need to have a team of lawyers to deal with it, which all the rent money will be required to pay for. If fact when my 92 year old father in law eventually passes away, we will now be forced to sell a nice clean small lower middle class property in Pomona Ca that has been in my wife's family for a very long time. It could have otherwise been a very good rental.
The end result of the internet was consolidation of retail outlets, it only follows AI will consolidate human labor. Eventually they'y'll be no need for migrants to cook our food, clean our toilets, or mow our lawns, these jobs will go back to do it yourself or college grads with gender studies degrees.
Quite possibly in 10 years the story will flip again, as American's go back to work or AI spawns new opportunities not to work.
Technology tends to make humans more dependent and less independent.
This seems to be the way of mankind we learn something new and lose the past sometimes as the result repeating it.
The last 50 years with the proliferation of filling idle time with entertainment the loss of commonsense and rational thinking skills is profound. In the wee hours the people's talking points are crafted, by the end of the next day every conversation among the left or the right is the same. It's as if the novel 1984 has become the playbook of the western world.
SDA is our Ingsoc, the Inner Party rules, the Outer Party administers, the Proles perform most ordinary labor. A state of permanent war, surveillance, propaganda, scamdemics, manufactured shortages, and the destruction of objective truth are embraced as part of everyday life.
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks.
The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”
Mark Twain.
Your right, their all a crap shoot!
Jim
I decoupled my IRA from a Dustodian providing 1.5% or less each year then personally investing in real estate, stocks and crypto, an investment banker warned me "90% of retail traders go to zero and this is what funds market gains for the rest of us".
I think your letter today points to the fact that our best "potential" protection for our money is to be invested in commodities that everyone needs to live. Things that are inverse to the USD. I've been reading Stansberry Research since 2008 (Porter Stansberry, Doc Effrig, Dan Ferris and others) and their analysis of solid long term investments has been good. Rich people over the years own the basics, gold, energy, timber, farmland plus others. NO I WON'T GET RICH FAST, but as the USD goes down, these basic commodities will always be valuable.
Jim Marshall
I have been looking, unsuccessfully, for a suitable investment for our cash since about 2012. 2010-2012 we bought single family homes only to protect our cash from inflation. Unfortunately, since then the state of CA has turned being a landlord in CA into a living hell. A now unprofitable living hell I might add. They have made laws telling all tenants that it is OK to steal from your landlord, and to destroy his property, simply because he has more money than you do! Nothing like buying votes with OPM.
In a world where every possible investment is insanely overpriced the only thing that makes any sense to me is to stay in T-Bills and collect interest that barely keeps up with inflation. Loaning money to the most bankrupt entity in the history of mankind does not exactly feel safe either!
I'm in thr process of moving my real-estate investments selling my rentals here in the US and moving thst money to investment rentals on the beaches of Costa Rica. Building a house(s) over looking the Pacific Ocean too. My renters here in Georgia have become entitled, taxes are going through the roof and insurance is outrageous. So I'm trying my luck in Costa Rica before the SHTF here in the US. I seem to be the lone wolf on this idea as each of my acquaintances just stare at me without comment when I mention moving my US investments out to Costa Rica. Plans are to start 6 months out and 6 months back in the US as long as it's still livable.
That sounds like a non-sequitur to me.
Maximum Safety Mode makes sense. Not exhilarating, but keeping me out of the way of the avalanche - which is rather exhilarating as it goes past.
There is no suitable place for the little guy investor. I bought and renovated out of pocket 30 rental units along with 5 single family homes on one block in Philadelphia. 100% owner financed. It was the best of times, but the City came to realize housing providers aka "Greedy Suburban Landlords" are easy to fleece. After 5 years of watching rent increases follow tax increases I sold the entire lot to one investor except for the private homes.
When I invested in the Philly, eviction for nonpayment was a 40 day process, currently it is a one year process. The landlord will not be granted the back rent but a few months of rent. Tenants are assigned free lawyers and these are all socialist and former tenants with blood dripping from their teeth. I'm now fully invested in the suburbs where the taxes are high but the rents are high also, while the regulation of housing in my area is laissez-faire.
Aren’t buy tbills and do nothing the same thing?
Both are immoral, but Tbills support an ill-willed dictatorship. Doing nothing is less harmful.
No.
Yup… but no state tax
What if the purpose of the OBBB 100% first year investment writeoff is to allow these big spenders to show great earnings when their data centers are put in service? No depreciation expense would make earnings look as good as an early investment in Anthropic. Never mind that debt service will eat the cash.
T bills has thus far been the safest low risk place to park one's money, but it's against my principles to fund the government.
T- bills are the most liquid investment… wait to buy gold…. When the market corrects … gold gets liquidated with everything else… patience grasshopper…. Markets are not quantitative absolutes…only probabilities… MG
Go long on both gold and silver, a minimum time frame of the Jan15 27 option chain and finance the purchase of one’s long positions by selling bull puts utilizing the March31 27 option chains. My thoughts, there is money to be made with this strategy, of course there is risk but life is a risk!!
Thanks I do options
Many do not!
Do what?
As of 9am Eastern, 65% of these readers believe gold is the best investment. That's why we are all trying to avoid! A bunch of old foggies trying to hold onto what we have. From what I read in the comments over time there is a lot of experience speaking. Is that artificial intelligence speaking or just gut feel? After years of analysis, varying opinions and computer programmer's creations and big hype from the "marketing geniuses of the world" I'm most comfortable with gut feel.
Brother, I am in total agreement!
I'm very thankful for Bill, Tom and Dan's obsession with the avalanche, or "big loss." You guys keep peering across the valley, at the ski slope, listening for the dynamite blast, or a natural trigger, which will bring the inevitable. Pity the skiers over there, who only see bright sunshine and powder snow.
Does anyone have any views on buying P&C Insurers such as Chubb (who trade bonds on their float) as an alternative to treasuries/cash- Satnsberry likes this for his permanent portfolio but no word from BPR on it?
Chubb btw 5 yr annualised 15.5% + 10 year 10.97%
I had read something about the insurance companies being heavily invested in the AI build out. A question to AI itself produced this:, "Property and Casualty (P&C) insurers like Chubb are heavily involved in the AI rollout, and their investment portfolios are deeply exposed to AI corporate bonds, data center debt, and related infrastructure assets. However, their involvement is complex and spans multiple areas of their business"
So looks like if you're going to invest in P&C you should read the prospectuses carefully.
Hmm.. I couldn't find any specific percentages for ai bonds, private equity in ai for Chubb- but did find 20% is invested in mortgage debt. So you're basically buying an opaque soup of more speculative corporate bonds and loans.
Thanks to Dennis T. for his reply. We are in the suburbs of LA, Riverside County. It is just a matter of time before the communists come to the suburbs. IE: I would not be a landlord in the county of Los Angeles for all the tea in China! The list of overlapping and contradictory state, county, and city laws is beyond the scope of this discussion. Let's just say you need to have a team of lawyers to deal with it, which all the rent money will be required to pay for. If fact when my 92 year old father in law eventually passes away, we will now be forced to sell a nice clean small lower middle class property in Pomona Ca that has been in my wife's family for a very long time. It could have otherwise been a very good rental.
The end result of the internet was consolidation of retail outlets, it only follows AI will consolidate human labor. Eventually they'y'll be no need for migrants to cook our food, clean our toilets, or mow our lawns, these jobs will go back to do it yourself or college grads with gender studies degrees.
Quite possibly in 10 years the story will flip again, as American's go back to work or AI spawns new opportunities not to work.
Technology tends to make humans more dependent and less independent.
This seems to be the way of mankind we learn something new and lose the past sometimes as the result repeating it.
The last 50 years with the proliferation of filling idle time with entertainment the loss of commonsense and rational thinking skills is profound. In the wee hours the people's talking points are crafted, by the end of the next day every conversation among the left or the right is the same. It's as if the novel 1984 has become the playbook of the western world.
SDA is our Ingsoc, the Inner Party rules, the Outer Party administers, the Proles perform most ordinary labor. A state of permanent war, surveillance, propaganda, scamdemics, manufactured shortages, and the destruction of objective truth are embraced as part of everyday life.