39 Comments

Bill,

We thank Bill Bonner for recognizing time prices as an important way to measure our standard of living. We also grasp and respect his critiques of our claims of global “superabundance.”

As your scathing and scintillating posts depict—they are my favorite reading on the net (GG)—most economic claims these days are hokum.

We agree with you that current monetary measures and government data and economic concoctions such as GDP, CPI, GDP deflators, and such convey descriptions and calculations of value that tend to conflict with reality. GDP, for example, presumes that public “goods,” such as university and corporate ESG administrators, military outlays in the Ukraine, and subsidies and mandates related to COVID and climate change, are all worth what they cost. Meanwhile, we have shown that private goods are gauged by inflation data that miss much of the economic and technological progress of recent decades and even centuries.

We seem to agree on the negative impact of much government spending, but disagree on the value of private output.

As I (GG) have been arguing for a decade or so, money is ultimately tokenized time. Time prices start with the idea that while we buy things with money, we really pay for them with our time. When you run out of money, you are running out of the time to earn more money. The actual cost is how much time it takes to earn the money to buy something.

This means there are actually two prices: money prices and time prices. Money prices are expressed in dollars and cents while time prices are expressed in hours and minutes. Converting a money price to a time price is simple. Divide the money price of a product or service by your hourly income.

Time Price= (Money Price)/(Hourly Income)

When I (Gale Pooley) was young, my grandpa told me that when he was a kid, Hershey bars only cost 5 cents. Today they cost around $1.32 at a local Walmart. While it is true that these popular chocolate bars have gotten more expensive, the real question is “Have they become more or less affordable?” To answer this question, we have to compare the candy bar price to a person’s hourly income. We have to calculate the time price. How much time did it take grandpa to earn the money to buy his candy bar back in 1900 versus the time it takes today?

As an unskilled worker Grandpa was earning around 9 cents an hour in 1900. This means the time price of his chocolate treat was around 0.56 hours or 33 minutes. Unskilled wages are now closer to $15.72 an hour. This would put the time price for unskilled workers at 5 minutes. For the time it took grandpa to earn the money to buy one Hershey bar, you get over 6.6 bars today. We enjoy over 560 percent more chocolate abundance than grandpa.

We can calculate time prices for all products and services, at any time, in any country, with any currency. Time prices are simple and elegant and intuitive. In our books Superabundance and Life After Capitalism, we look at the time prices of hundreds of different products and services.

We compared the time prices of 42 individual food prices from 1919 to 2019. We found that for blue-collar workers the time prices had fallen by an average of 91.2 percent. This means that for the time it took to earn the money to buy one item in 1919, you would get 11.32 in 2019. Food abundance has been growing around 2.46 percent a year, doubling every 28.57 years.

You write: “Basic commodities are cheaper (in terms of hours of work needed to buy them). But finished products – those that he actually buys…those that should benefit from more technology – are much more expensive.” You cite pickup trucks and housing.

What about pickup trucks? In 1948 the price of a new Ford was $1,279. According to MeasuringWorth.com, a highly respected source of historical economic information, blue collar hourly compensation (wages and benefits) was around $1.41 per hour. This would put the time price at 907 hours. Blue collar hourly compensation is closer to $36.50 today, so the time price of a new $47,000 F-150 is around 1,288 hours. While the time price has increased by 42 percent, pickups today are much better in terms of mileage, comfort, reliability, power, and safety. Most people are happy to pay 42 percent more for all of these features. Adjusted for time, the 1948 pickup would sell for over $33,000 today. ($47,000 ÷ 1.42). The new F-150 has to be worth $25,000 more than the 1948 model.

Another way to compare is to look at the trucks China and India build that are similar to the 1948 in terms of quality and performance and safety. They sell for around $10,000. At $36.50 an hour, the time price is 274 hours. This is 70 percent cheaper than the 1948 model. Both ways of analyzing pickup truck abundance suggests that this classic American icon is becoming more abundant.

What about housing? First, we must recognize that real estate is not just about location, location, location. It’s about financing, financing, financing. A 3 percent mortgage is much different than a 7 or 13 percent mortgage. We also note that houses are much larger today than a hundred years ago. With smaller family sizes the square foot per person is much higher. It is payment divided by the square footage per person that ultimately counts. Houses in 1923 averaged around 742 square feet. This would put the price per square foot of the $3,200 house at $4.31. Blue-collar workers were earning 48 cents an hour putting the time price per square foot at around nine hours. According to the U.S. Census Bureau the average square footage of a new home is around 2,440. At $36.50 an hour, this would put the time price of a $390,000 home at 4.4 hours per square foot. This is over 50 percent lower than the 1923 house. This is before we consider any differences in quality or interest rates.

value.

We agree with Mr. Bonner on the egregious mistakes and depredations of monetary policy and debt. However, the expansion of capitalism around the globe has led to huge gains in productivity and improvement in time prices. We very much appreciate Mr. Bonner’s consideration of our approach to measuring with time prices and hope for fruitful further exchanges in the future.

George Gilder

Gale Pooley

Expand full comment

I want to thank both of you gentlemen for your brilliant thoughts and ideas and contributions throughout your inspiring careers🙏 and thank you for the time and thought shared with us 😊

Expand full comment

Oh, my Lord, THE George Gilder? As James Bond (Sean Connery) said in "Goldfinger" (1964) when he learned that his captor was Pussy Galore (Honor Blackman), "I must be dreaming."

Honored Sir: My thanks and appreciation for your invaluable contributions to my understanding of the world and reality in my adult years ( I'm soon to be 71). Thank you also for your willingness to swim against the stream in many/most cases. To borrow a line: live well and prosper. PM

Expand full comment

It is likely that the USA has the worst collective case of attribution bias in world history. From the end of WWII into the 60s, America thrived as it never had before, soaring to new heights of achievement and prosperity, because we had no serious competition, given how WWII played out. We acted as if, and told ourselves accordingly, this unique condition was a result of some sort of virtue or excellence on our part. It was inevitable that the rest of the world would eventually catch up, and then what? To keep up the charade, Mr. Nixon closed the gold "window", and the USA began its madcap money adventurism. I was not present when those discussions were held and those decisions were reached, but I would bet all I have that those who undertook those actions never considered in their minds that the pretense and charade would continue for nearly 60 years and reach such absurd ends; yet, here we are. We are living insanity, and no one wants to pull the plug for fear of what will happen, while at the same time each of us understands it cannot, and will not, continue. Best always. PM

Expand full comment

Yes Sir, seems insane, but true. And, in order to, support the charade. The powers to be and experts (lol) have invented a new Modern Monetary Theory or MMT.

Which is basically print what you need and don’t worry about it.

If the government says it’s worth 1.00 dollars, then it is treated as $1.00 dollars.

Nothing of real value.

Just paper that says $1.00.

AND, PhD’s and millions of people back them.

This thread keeps coming back to Gold metal.

Why?

Because they bought a bunch of the shit and need it to maintain value!

Expand full comment

Yes Bill, we all have friends and family that were once super successful, and ended up losing everything, normally to issues caused 90% by themselves. Very similar to what we now witness as a nation 🤔……Morons? Not most, just making choices based on lies that made sense, from information that is corrupted. Again, numbers don’t lie, but when those “factual” numbers are corrupt, the end result will always be the same 🤔…

Expand full comment

Yes, this reminds me of an old saying… Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.

Expand full comment

Funny, I heard it as figures lie and liars figure. And we need to look no further than the BLS as proof.

Expand full comment

Choices determine outcomes; values determine choices. Best always. PM

Expand full comment

Can't quite make sense of all the numbers and government data. Just got back from Vegas and planes were full, casinos packed, high end hotels booked, Vegas strip crowded and the high cost restaurants with waiting lines. Unless the masses there were all in the top 10% earners there must be something else going on! Can't quite square the circle as they say. Cheers!

Expand full comment

Absolute madness before the storm/cyclone hits … we’re all just holding our breath or spending drinking and laughing like we’re standing in the Roman Circus waiting for the lions to arrive. Wonder how long it will take for the festival to quickly close the the burning man one?

Expand full comment

This really isn't so surprising; the psychology is "Let's spend our money before it becomes entirely worthless." I'm reminded of Joel Bowman's observation a while back that, despite (or because of?) ravenous inflation, the night spots of Buenos Aires have never been busier!

Expand full comment

The guy in the picture forgot to put on his mask

Expand full comment

Hi Mr. Cortese -

Pithy, succinct and accurate. You have correctly put your finger on why the coming sh*tstorm will be so very devastating.

Ignorance is bliss, until it's not. Personally, I will be refusing to accept any upcoming sad-but-true sob stories from any of the afflicted. The TRUTH is and has been available to everyone equally for the last 20 years, particularly the TRUTH of the convid farce and unfolding debacle. If an individual refuses to acknowledge the ongoing Reality of the precipice we are teetering on and why/how we got here - too bad for them. I'm moving on...

Expand full comment

Pity the poor Brits. Millions of them bought houses at "bargain" mortgage interest rates of 1%-2% and are now facing a reset at 8% (since Brit mortgage rates are all short term). Watch out below!

Expand full comment

Basically same thing in Canada.

Expand full comment

I'm amazed at the polling numbers wherein 32% of voters think the current administration is doing a good job. I can only think these are permanent swamp creatures and the a segment of zombie voters.

Expand full comment

Politicians would do such a thing because with the current leadership in this country it is every man for himself. Plus we have seen admin after admin and Congress spending beyond their means and driving up further debt. Apparently they can't think logically and they follow such leaders as Paul Krugman who advocates minting a Trillion dollar platinum coin to pay for debt or whatever desired as a solution. As they have been driving up debt continuously while some of the smartest economists, like Dr. Lacy Hunt, Stan Druckenmiller, Ray Dahlio have been giving warning after warning about dire consequences. Regardless, centuries of evidence have accumulated in every case that printing money always fails. Furthermore simple logic tells anyone with a brain that printing money that isn't earned doesn't make one richer or doesn't make a country richer. It is really just that simple.

Expand full comment

The Fed is a problem, but it’s not a new problem. Banks conjured money out of thin air long before the Fed. Booms and busts are not new. None of this stuff is new. It’s the scale that matters. There are apparently no constraints on the amount of spending , borrowing , and misallocation of capital by the US government or other governments for that matter. Having started down certain roads they keep doubling down and bouncing from crisis to artificially created crisis. But of course there are constraints and eventually the global markets will body slam the profligate spenders, public and private. In the meantime, a bunch of rent seeking crooks ( I’m not talking about landlords btw) will get unbelievably rich and skate when the crash comes. Such a waste of so much potential. But that’s the nature of the beast.

Are we morons? We collectively are morons in the sense that we don’t stop this. But I guess nearly everybody is a moron since it goes on nearly everywhere - the EU, Japan, China, etc. and we likely aren’t going to stop it because the cake is baked. So individually we can try and protect ourselves the best we can and be as prepared as possible for the storms that head our way.

Expand full comment

Wonderful Bill, you’ve just explained why all our lives we’ve felt that life in every way was getting worse and it’s not about seeing the glass half empty but that the glass was/is getting emptier every day although often barely visible but over these past 75+ years it’s now very evident and more so every day at an ever increasing rate like when the toilet paper roll gets almost to the end it seems to come off much faster eh? Well thanks for proving that I’m not a negative old fart but am still seeing reality as you’ve described it today!

Expand full comment

Provocation and consequence are not on the same page. The time lag between permits mischief. Notice Roosevelt received high praise for his 1930s recovery. Never was his first barrowing ever paid off. It is a part of the current debt. Roosevelt is blame free.

Expand full comment

Crazy, huh? When stalin died, the soviet union was in mourning. You can't make this stuff up.

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule.

-Friedrich Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil: Prelude to a Philosophy of the Future (1886)

Expand full comment

What does the 1% Smartasses do when the 99% Morons make moronic moves?

Expand full comment

Have their controlled media make 50% of the 99% vote democrat🤔

Expand full comment

Or "miraculously produce" 81 million counted 𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘁𝘀, regardless of the actual number of 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 casting the same...

Expand full comment

Can you say “Banana Republic “ 🤔

Expand full comment

Head for the hills!

Expand full comment

When the money goes it’s soup line time. Long lines of hungry desperate people. It’s just the beginning.

Expand full comment

If we had an unbiased and professional media, I think it would help. Everyday I go to the Yahoo Financial page and see JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs trying to pump up this decrepit market so they can get teh little guy to buy into the bubble so they can get their rich customers out and it is caused journalism. I am encouraged when I see the comments warning people of this.

Expand full comment

Just passing this on. I don’t make the rules.

“What is the root cause of inflation in 2023?

Supply chain crisis

Some economists attribute the U.S. inflation surge to product shortages resulting from the global supply-chain problems, itself largely caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Probably democrats and watch CNN!

70% of America!

As long as these dumbasses are in charge.

Don’t expect anything to change!

Expand full comment

I used to wonder back in the noughties why so many folk at the school gate could afford swanky new cars and it took a while to percolate into my dull brain that it wasn’t a sign of wealth but access to lines of credit that enabled this. When I was a kid we weren’t so poor that we couldn’t afford a pot to piss in but let’s just say it was pretty leaky. This together with leaving Uni (most folk reading this would say college i guess) with an overdraft of >£2K which would be north of £5K (c$7K) in todays money (a lot when I received near as damn it full government support for my fees plus a subsidy for rent) persuaded me never to get in debt again outside of a mortgage. My then girlfriend and soon to be wife was much better at managing money and helped enormously to get me back on the tracks but we seem to be the exception rather than the norm. Looking on the positive side the cleansing of the debt soaked Augean Stables whilst it will be truly brutal is the only way we have a chance to truly generate wealth for our nations again and not the tiny elite at the expense of the 99% of souls being shafted.

Expand full comment

Hi Mr. Jones -

Recently overheard at a Cruise ship casino Black Jack table, a conversation between two millennial gentlemen:

"I told my boss he made more than me and was richer than I am. He told me - No, he just had access to more credit than I did. I should be patient as my time to utilize the same would come."

Easier qualifying requirements and higher rates for consumer debt is the only way they can keep the soundtrack for this circus playing...

Expand full comment